Middle East and North Africa Lubricants Market Outlook to 2019 - Driven by Automotive Demand and Infrastructural Developments

The Middle East and Africa currently consumes an estimated ~% of the global demand for lubricants. An important trend observed in this region is that markets which have been comparatively larger from volume point of view were less advanced than smaller consuming markets such as the UAE. Iran and Egypt were the largest markets in terms of consumption, which accounted for nearly ~% of the total demand in Middle East in 2014. Northern Africa is also a small lubricant consuming market from a volume point of view, with Egypt being the top most consumers.

In terms of production, the biggest player in the MENA lubricants market was UAE with a share of ~% followed by Iran, which contributed ~% to the region’s production of lubricants in 2014. Although UAE had a relatively small market for lubricants, however the region has ample number of blending plants that support the export of lubricants to Africa, Europe and Asia.

Lubricants production in MENA region has changed from ~ thousand tons in the year 2009 to ~ thousand tons in the year 2014. Production in various countries witnessed a negative growth rate during years 2010 as financial crisis had severely impacted the global economy as well as during 2012.

A decline in overall lubricants production over the past five years has also been witnessed. The lubricants production of MENA region recorded a modest growth of ~% during the period 2009-2014.

MENA lubricants market is predicted to pace up rapidly in the forthcoming years. Abundance of base oil and low cost of production have driven the growth of lubricants production in the region. Further, rising demand from international markets has been inducing producers to expand production capacities. It is forecasted that the lubricants production will surge from ~ thousand tons in the year 2015 to gigantic ~ thousand tons by the year 2019 due to expanding refining capacities and upcoming blending facilities.

Iran lubricants market has been one of the largest markets in the MENA region. The country produced nearly ~% of the lubricants production in the overall MENA region by the end of year 2014. The country produced approximately ~ thousand tons of lubricants in the year 2009 to declining production of ~ thousand tons in 2014 due to decrease in oil production coupled with geopolitical issues. Hence, production of lubricants has witnessed a substantial decline at a CAGR of ~% during the period 2009-2014. The country consumes a significant ~% of its lubricants production and exports the rest.

Despite several difficulties faced by the nations due to issuance of sanctions, Iran has managed to recover. It is forecasted that the lubricants production will surge from ~ thousand tons in the year 2015 to gigantic ~ thousand tons by the year 2019 due to the expanding refinery capacity of the country and upcoming petrochemical projects. The exports are anticipated to be analogous to the production and thereby are expected to register significant growth at an appreciable CAGR of ~% during the forecasted period 2015-2019.

Heavy duty motor oils contributed nearly ~% to the overall consumption of lubricants in Iran in 2014. The share of PCMO’s in the Iran lubricants market has been noted at ~% in 2014. Thus, the automotive lubricants market collectively occupied ~% share in consumption of finished lubricants during 2014. During 2014, industrial oils contributed a share of ~% in the consumption of finished lubricants.

Saudi Arabia lubricants market has been amongst the largest markets for production as well as consumption in the MENA region. The rapid infrastructure development in the country coupled with high demand from the progressing automotive and industrial sector has been majorly driving the market for lubricants in Saudi Arabia. Due to a significant domestic demand for lubricants in the country, Saudi Arabia has been consuming significantly large proportions of its production.

The country’s production of lubricants has witnessed a CAGR of ~% during the period 2009-2014, reaching a production volume of ~ thousand tons by 2014. Due to a significant domestic demand for lubricants in the country, Saudi Arabia has been consuming significantly large proportions of its production.

Saudi Arabia is likely to leverage its lubricants production through enhancing refining capacities and upcoming petrochemical projects. Lubricants production in the country will reach ~ thousand tons by 2019. It is assessed that there will be a leap in lubricants production at a CAGR of ~% during 2015-2019. With the government’s initiatives in developing the infrastructure and transportation system, the country is expected to perceive growth in roadways, railways as well as well as sea ports. A number of infrastructure projects are also lined up in the near future.

During 2014, Petromin has been the leading player in the lubricants market and commanded a share of ~% through lubricants sales. Aljomaih and Shell was the second largest lubricants producing company and accounted for ~% of volume sales in Saudi Arabia lubricants market.

UAE has been the largest lubricants producing country in the MENA region. Lubricants production in UAE is contributed significantly by refineries and blending plants. The total lubricants production in the country has escalated from ~ thousand tons in 2009 to massive rise to ~ thousand tons in 2014 at a CAGR of ~% during this period.

It is observed that the market witnessed a paralyzed growth in year 2010 due to the global economic crisis, while it started recovering in year 2011. The domestic production during the year 2011 had reached ~thousand tons after which it continuously grew at a moderate pace to reach ~ thousand tons by the end of year 2014.

The transportation segment contributed highest demand for lubricants and accounted for nearly ~% of the overall sales for lubricants in the UAE. The sales for heavy duty motor oil and passenger motor oil accounted for ~% and ~% of the total market during the year 2014. Further, the industrial machinery and equipment segment reported a ~% demand for lubricants.

The demand for industrial machinery and equipment application is powered by increasing investments in construction, manufacturing and logistics sectors.

Egypt was amongst the largest producers and consumers of lubricants in the North Africa region during 2014. Egypt also constitutes one of the largest markets for lubricants in Africa. During 2014, the country accounted for about one-fourth of Africa’s demand for lubricants. It has been analyzed that Egypt accounted for nearly ~% of the production of lubricants of MENA region during 2014. The lubricants consumption in the country has climbed from ~ thousand tons in 2009 to declining ~ thousand tons in the year 2014.

Lubricating oil used in Egypt is of low quality and the mineral oil based lubricants are very popular. Re-refined oil is also largely used in the country since it is cheaper than other varieties of oils. Mineral oil based lubricants occupied a share of ~% in the sales volume in 2014, while synthetics contributed only a share of ~% in the overall sales volume. It has been observed that manufacturing facilities and old commercial and private vehicles have been using low quality oils, while only the new vehicles in the country used synthetic oils as of 2014.

It is estimated that lubricants consumption is likely to mount at a growth rate of ~% accounting to ~ thousand tons of consumption in the year 2019. Additionally, the market of Egypt is still hesitant to adopt the new technology. A major reason for this is the low income of the Egyptian people. Vehicles owned by people are mostly old and poorly maintained and are often repaired with outdated or second-hand spare parts. Thus, the Egyptian lubricant market will continue to be inclined towards traditional lubricants and will be one of the last counties in the MENA region to shift to premium high quality products.

Algeria has also been a major consumer of lubricants and since the country is not self sufficient in production and has been importing significant quantities of lubricants for domestic consumption. Due to limited oil production in the country, the production of lubricants has declined by ~% during the review period 2009-2014. On the other hand, increasing vehicular population and infrastructural activities have enabled the consumption to enlarge at ~% during 2009-2014.

In 2014, the Algerian lubricants market has been controlled majorly by NAFTAL which held a market share of ~% in terms of volume sales of lubricants in the domestic market. Total Lubrifiants Algeria occupied a significant share in the Algeria lubricants market and controlled nearly ~% of the lubricant sales in 2014. The remaining ~% share in the market was held by a few global companies including Shell and BP, which imported products from their global production facilities and market them in Algeria.

The domestic consumption of Algeria has grown at a much faster pace than the country’s production, therefore the country relies heavily on imports. Consumption is expected to expand at an impressive rate of ~% during the forecasted period. Algeria is one of the rapidly growing markets for lubricants in the MENA region and is anticipated to grow at a very fast pace in the coming years. With rising purchasing power of consumers in the country the vehicle population is expected to enlarge in the coming years

The MENA lubricants market is projected to witness tremendous growth in the coming years. The production is anticipated to register a noteworthy CAGR of ~% during the forecasted period 2015-2019. Rapid industrial development in the region, tourism activities and booming automotive sector are the major factors fuelling the demand for lubricants in MENA countries. The total lubricants consumption is forecasted to mount from ~ thousand tons in the year 2015 to ~ thousand tons by the year 2019.

The rapidly increasing vehicle population in the region, rising disposable incomes of consumers and healthy GDP growth rates allowing governments to invest in infrastructural and industrial development projects are considered important to drive the market in the near future.

MENA region is a major player in the Group I base oil segment and is projected to be the one of the last few markets to shift to lighter grade base oils.

The total lubricants production in MENA region is forecasted to increase from ~ thousand tons in 2015 to mighty ~ thousand tons by the year 2019. The leading country UAE is anticipated to maintain its top most position with a ~% share in overall production. UAE is likely to be the leader in MENA lubricants market as its production will rise from ~ thousand tons in the year 2015 to ~ thousand tons in 2019. Algeria is expected to perceive the highest growth in its production through enhancing refinery and blending capacities at an appreciable CAGR of ~% during the forecasted period 2015-2019.

Iran leads the market in terms of consumption and the country’s consumption is forecasted to surge from ~ thousand tons in the year 2015 to impressive ~ thousand tons by the year 2019 due to increase in vehicle sales. Algeria is expected to observe the fastest growth in the region with a CAGR of ~%. Another important country that is expected to emerge in terms of consumption will be Qatar. The rapid infrastructural development in the country due of upcoming soccer world cup is expected to generate tremendous demand for lubricants.

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