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Enticing customers this holiday season is more important – and more challenging – than ever before as the economy continues to struggle and consumers remain very cautious. Bill Tancer, Experian Marketing Services' Head of Global Research, has been examining holiday shopping trends based on Experian data and has identified interesting shifts in consumer behavior: -- According to the Experian Consumer Expectation Index, consumer economic sentiment has reached its lowest point since spring 2009 – yet visits to the Experian Hitwise Retail 500 index are up 17% over 2010 -- The top days for visits to retail websites this season will be: Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and the day after Christmas -- Free shipping queries have been declining the last 3 years, but since February 2011 there has been upward trend in searches -- For email offers, 30% is the new 20% as marketers leaned towards higher offers throughout the 2010 holiday—expect the trend of deeper discounts to continue for holiday 2011 Bottom line is that consumers are looking for bargains even sooner this year and marketers need to adjust their strategies now.
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2011 Holiday Shopping Season Reaching the “New American Consumer”
Bill Tancer, Head of Global Research
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
2
Gauging online seasonality
+17.5%
Visits to Retail 500 Index
currently +17.5% when
comparing last week to
previous year.
When times are good
visits to Retail 500 go up,
when bad, they also go
up….
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
3
Experian Consumer Expectation Index
The Experian Consumer
Expectation Index showed
dramatic decrease in
economic outlook as a
result of S&P’s downgrade
50-64 year-olds showed
most dramatic decline as
well as NYT and WSJ
readers.
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
4
Online visits and predictability – “Peak Week”
Year-over-year data
shows dramatic
repetition. Top days for
online retail traffic remain
constant:
1. Thanksgiving
2. Black Friday
3. Cyber Monday
4. Day after Christmas
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
5
Seasonality and “Black Friday” searches
“Black Friday” searches
begin to ramp as early
as mid-October.
Measurable searches on
the term appear as early
as mid-late September
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
6
Seasonality and “Black Friday” searches
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
7
Timing and “free shipping”
While “free shipping”
queries have been
declining the last three
years, since Feb 2011
there has been an
upward trend in
searches and also a
“widening” during the
holidays.
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
8
Target/Missoni and the “New American Consumer”
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
9
23%
37%
14%
21%
37% 34%
89%
-10%
190%
Email volume surged 34% from 12/22 through 12/31 Push for last minute sales drove volumes higher
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
10
Offers shifted In Holiday 2010 Deeper discounts and combined offers prevailed
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
11
$ Off % Off Tiered Offers
Type
Transaction
Rate
Rev per
Transaction
Rate
Rev per
Transaction
Rate
Rev per
Time Limited 0.12% $0.19 0.09% $0.15 0.08% $0.14
All Offers 0.10% $0.15 0.06% $0.11 0.07% $0.12
Lift 25% 27% 34% 40% 13% 16%
Subscribers responded to urgency in offers Offers Promoting a Limited Time Increased Response
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
12
30% is the new 20% Marketers leaned towards higher offers throughout the holidays
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
13
Email marketers relied on heavy end-of-season discounts Deep discounts were marketed more in December
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
14
Timing affected subscribers response to discounts 30% off ruled early in the season
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
15
Top holiday items – search term analysis
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
16
Summary
While online visits to retail are up over 17%, consumer expectation data could indicate that increased traffic is price research/cost savings behavior
Timing and targeted message are critical this holiday season
Visits to online shopping sites provide insight to timing consumer interest
Based on 2010 data there will be a race to deeper discounts
Employ data such as the New Mosaic to gain understanding of your customer’s triggers
© 2011 Experian Information Solutions, Inc. All rights reserved.
17 © Experian Information Solutions, Inc. 2007. All rights reserved.
Confidential and proprietary.
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