No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network0 No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network

ACME PhoneVoip Operator

Business Plan

Milano, 4 Giugno 2007

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La posta elettronica ha riportato in auge la comunicazione scritta,

La telefonia mobile ha valorizzato la comunicazione vocale

�Parlare in mobilità è un bisogno dell’individuo contemporaneo.

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Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) è un servizio per la comunicazione vocale

basato sul protocollo Internet.

VoIP consente agli utenti di fare chiamate a lunga distanza al costo di una

chiamata locale.

Il Voip

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Indice

Scenari

Progetto ACME Phone

Mercato

Considerazioni finali

No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network4 No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network4

Indice

Scenari

Progetto ACME Phone

Mercato

Considerazioni finali

No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network5 No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network5

Telefonia Fissa

Dal 1998Prima del 1998

Concorrenza sui servizi

Monopolio di accesso

Servizi ICT

Accesso a Internet

Banda Larga per applicazioni

MultiMedia

Monopolio

Reti dati

Telefonia

Servizi TLCtradizionali

Scenario

Domanda

Offerta

No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network6 No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network6

t

TLCCE

Elaborazione Delta TEAM su A. T. Kearney

CR

3

avvio crescita focalizzazione equilibrio

Mobile Phone

Telefonia Fissa: stato di consolidamento

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Telefonia Fissa

La Telefonia fissa è un settore dinamico e sempre più di frammentato.

Questo è dovuto all’abbassamento delle barriere all’ingresso:

I. DeregolamentazioneII. Scorporo delle Rete rispetto agli Operatori

I principali attori attuali di questo settore sono:

- Incumbent- Ex monopolisti

- Operatori Alternativi- Pre selezione: tipo Wind- Selezione Prefisso: tipo Tele 2

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Telefonia Fissa

Gli Operatori Alternativi erodono quote di mercato soprattutto nei segmenti piùricchi delle chiamate:Lunga DistanzaIntenazionali

Fonte: Rappporto sulle telecomunicazioni delle CE 2007

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Telefonia Fissa –Operatori

Arpu Voce

€ 313,2

€ 193,5

€ 189,3

Tele 2 offre un accesso con Pre Selezione solo ad anno 2006 in corso.

Elaborazione Delta TEAM su dati ufficiali relativi all’anno 2006

Riccardo Ruggiero, Ad di TelcoIt, prevede che il traffico voce a valore per TelcoIT si ridurrà del il 33% in 4 anni!

Anche gli altri Operatori prevedono un calo significativo del valore del traffico.

1. Convergenza Fisso Mobile – F2M

2. Cannibalizzazione da Chat, IM etc

3. Pressione competitiva

4. Internet

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Dal 2004

Convergenza – F2M

Digitalizzazione - Voip

Connettività

FocalizzazioneCosto FLAT

Telefonia Fissa

Dal 1998Prima del 1998

Concorrenza sui servizi

Monopolio di accesso

Servizi ICT

Accesso a Internet

BB per applicazioni

MM

Monopolio

Reti dati

Telefonia

Servizi TLCtradizionali

Scenario

Domanda

Offerta

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Telecomunicazioni: lo spin off

t

TLC

CE

Elaborazione Delta TEAM su A. T. Kearney

Co

nce

ntr

azio

ne

avvio crescita focalizzazione equilibrio

Voip

Mobile Phone

?

Come in altri settori (IT etc…)

Nelle telecomunicazioni stiamo assistendo allo spin off della tecnologia ovvero al nascere di un mercato autonomo: il VOIP

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Telefonia: spin off del VoIP

Discontinuità:- Innovazione tecnologica- Banda Larga- Web

Tratti emergenti:

• Convergenza

• Focalizzazione su un segmenti specifici del più vasto mercato delle telecomunicazioni: il traffico Voce

• Ridefinizione della catena del valore

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Gli Operatori si stanno riposizionando verso un offerta sempre più completa sia orizzontale: Fisso + Mobile + Mobile che verticale (X + TV).

Nel grafico le quote di mercato a livello europero per tipo di operatore

Convergenza

Fonte: Comunità Europea

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2play 3play 4play

Internet + Fissa

TV + Fissa

Internet + TV

Other

Internet + Fissa + Tv

Internet + Fissa + Mobile

Internet + Fissa + Tv + Mobile

%

No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network14 No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network14

Broad band

L’unico vincolo di breve periodo che limita la diffusione di tecnologie VoIP è la disponibilità di connessioni broadband

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Broad Band in Italia

Linee* Diretti* Adsl* ADLS FLAT

2,4 0,9 0,8 69%

2,5 25%

Elaborazione Delta TEAM su dati ufficiali

nd

* Dati in mln

0,2

1,1 1,0 1,0

20,5 6,7 50%

0,460,46 Da verificare

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Broad Band: amici o nemici?

� La diffusione della Banda ha beneficiato della pressione promozionale per la competizione fra gli operativi.

� Gli Operatori Alternativi con le loro tariffe aggressive, spesso FLAT, sul traffico voce rendono il VOIP meno vantaggioso soprattutto per le chiamate Nazionali

� Caso Skype: crescita negli USA “piatta”

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

La banda larga: Telecom

Nel 2009 : Linee a Banda Larga12,8mln pari al 50% delle Linee attive

Fonte: Telecom Italia

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Indice

Scenari

Progetto ACME Phone

Mercato

Considerazioni finali

No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network19 No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network19

ACME Phone

� ACME Phone è un Operatore “Supplementare”

� ACME Phone è un sistema integrato per la comunicazione VOIP.

� ACME Phone è un new media

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ACME Phone: Operatore Supplementare

Gli Operatori Alternativi Tradizionali, con o senza pre selezione, si sostituiscono in maniera definitiva o temporanea all’Operatore Precendente

ACME Phone invece aumenta il numero dei numeri disponibili rendendo disponibile un numero telefonico univoco raggiungibile da tutto il mondo

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ACME Phone: sistema integrato

Sistema integrato è composto- Apparecchi Telefonici USB di nuova generazione

- Software per la comunicazione VOIP- Chiamate inter network gratuite- In bound con numero unico- Out bound con tariffe vantaggiose- Servizi accessori:

- Segreteria telefonica- Ricezione File- Etc…

- Portale

- Sistema di pagamento- On line con carta di credito- Scratch card

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ACME Phone è un MEDIA

ACME Phone è la Telefonia Commerciale, ovvero la possibilità di riceve pubblicità o comunicazione in genere, in cambio di credito

NOTA: In una fase di calo del costo delle comunicazione vocale, come giustificare la pubblicità sul telefono?

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Strategia – segmento professional

Intenzioni di passare al VOIP da parte di EDP Manager

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

10 - 49 50 - 99 100 - 249 250 - 500

Fonte: Il mondo, 1 giugno 2007

No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network24 No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team No part of this document may be reproduced or transmitted without the written permission of Delta Team & Network24

Le strategie degli operatori VoIP per raggiungere i diversi segmenti di utenti sono molto simili:

- Consumer:Consumer:Consumer:Consumer: è stato coperto attraverso il Viral Marketing ed eccezionalmente con eventi fisici, promozioni sul pdv etc.

- Target definito: utenti esperti di internet, con un costo di apprendimento nullo.

- ProfessionalProfessionalProfessionalProfessional (inteso come Aziende): è stato coperto attraverso partnership con Sw House e agenzie di vendita (soprattutto gli operatori più piccoli).

Strategia – segmento consumer

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1) puntare sui canali “bricks and mortar”, con intensa attività di promoter per entrare in contatto e acculturare una rilevante parte della popolazione finora ignorata e scarsamente attrezzata, preparata ed informata sui vantaggi della telefonia Over IP;

2) prodotto tangibile e simile per modalità d’uso in modo da ridurre il costo di apprendimento,� si vende un servizio, la tecnologia è “embedded”;

3) assicurare diverse modalità di acquisto del credito telefonico, sia web ma soprattutto scratch card, uno strumento che l’utente italiano di telefonia conosce benissimo e con cui ha grande confidenza.

ACME Phone: consumer

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Indice

Scenari

Progetto ACME Phone

Mercato

Considerazioni finali

Mercato Potenziale

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Mercato VoIp

Il Voip oggi erode quote di traffico alla Telefonia Fissa,

Il Wi Max, la banda larga senza fili, consentirà l’estensione della propria applicazione anche alla telefonia in mobilità.

Il mercato Voip esiste sostanzialmente da 5 anni. Gli operatori attivi possono classificarsi in:

1. Operatori WireLine con un servizio Voip: Telecom Italia, Tiscali

2. Piccoli Operatori provenienti dal mondo IT.

3. Voip puri (Skype, Voinage, Voicecheap) a cui si è unita recentemente Microsoft1. Hanno una brand awareness molto elevata

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Competitor: Operatori Alternativi

Gli Operatori, associano all’accesso alla Banda Larga tariffe telefoniche molto spesso Flat (con o senza scatto alla risposta).

In Italia: Wind, Tiscali, Tele 2 etc…

Infostrada

TuttoIncluso

La capacità penetrazione degli Operatori Voip presso gli Utenti con Banda Larga è molto ridotta

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VOIP: Telecom

Telecom Italia intende sfruttare il suo presidio della ADSL offrendo un proprio servizio VOIP.

L’obiettivo dichiarato è raggiungere una penetrazione del Voip pari a 45% delle linee ADLS

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

ADLS

VOIP

Fonte: Telecom Italia

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VoIP: new comer

Ecco un esempio di Operatori Voip certificati da Altesys (www.altesys.it) fornitore di hardware per il settore VoIP

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Concorrenza - VoIP

I Player con una brand awareness molto elevata

- Skype (posseduto da ebay)- 195 mln di utenti

- MSN Messenger di Microsoft che ha di recente inserito l’applicazione Voip di Verizon- Over 200 mln

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Strategia - Competitor

La strategia dei principali competitor si fonda su questi punti

� Economicità/Gratuità delle chiamate

� Networking

� Viral Marketing

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Skype

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1Y

04

Q2Y

04

Q3Y

04

Q4Y

04

Q1Y

05

Q2Y

05

Q3Y

05

Q4Y

05

Q1Y

06

Q2Y

06

Q3Y

06

Q4Y

06

Q1Y

07

0

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30

40

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80

90

Account Fatturato

• Utenti: 158 mln, cresciuti di 48 volte in 3 anni!• Fatturato 75mln, raddoppiato in a anno• Dipendenti globali: 500

Arpu $ 1,6

Q1Y07 primo risultato economico positivo

Fatturato

Elaborazione Delta Team su fonti Ebay

SkypeOut

98%

Altro

2%

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Voip - Sono così grandi?

Il numero di Account è indice attendibile?

La proliferazione degli account è un fenomeno noto e molto diffuso nel caso diemail o sim per la telefonia mobile (vedi allegato)

La facilità di apertura e la gratuità di gestione dell’account spinge persone ad attivare utenze mail, telefoniche per usarle- temporaneamente per sfruttare una promozione o far fonte ad un’esigenza temporanea e poi smetterle di usarle senza tuttavia disattivarle

Il fenomeno inverso è la commistione di utenti che usano il medesimo account con finalità diverse: per il lavoro, per gli amici, per componenti dei forumetc.

Nel caso del settore VOIP si aggiunge l’elemento che si può essere utenti “non paganti”. Ovvero usare l’istant messaging o la chiamata fra utenti, quindi senza nessun costo.

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Indice

Scenari

Progetto ACME Phone

Mercato

Considerazioni finali

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Scenario - Considerazione finale

1. Il traffico voce è ormai una componente marginale del fatturato del TelcoCompany1. È destinato ad essere banalizzato e diventare un accessorio a costo

zero del servizio a banda larga.

2. Mercato poco concentrato1. Ad alcuni leader per brand awareness si affiancano una miriade di

piccoli operatori dalle strategie vaghe e di breve periodo.

2. Inserimento di una molteplicità di operatori

3. Le Telco company stanno facendo enormi investimenti in comunicazione per acquisire clienti,1. Infostrada con Fiorello e Buongiorno ha 2,5 mln di clienti e solo 1

mln diretti.

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1. Il Settore può rivelarsi fertile per gli operatori capaci di:

1. Visione globale

2. Modello di business adeguato1. 1Player

1. Costi bassi1. Incumbents con la loro struttura dei costi

mastodontica avranno enormi difficoltà a riciclarsi.2. X Player

1. offerta innovativa, integrata ed economica

Scenario - Considerazione finale

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Modello –Considerazioni finali

1. Offerta verticale 1Player Voip richiede un modello di business adeguato

1. Grandi Numeri, piccoli margini, costi bassissimi

2. Brand Ignoto

1. Accrescere la Brand Awareness in un settore caretterizzato da enormi investimenti da parte degli Operatori Nazionali e Posizioni dominanti degli Operatori Voip richiede consistenti investimenti

3. Apparecchio Integrato

1. Verificare interesse dei Retailer per un Operatore verticale su business marginale (telefonia fissa)

2. Comprare per Rivendere:

1. margini max 20% e rischio di accedere a prodotti maturi

3. Curva dei prezzi discendenti

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Indice

Scenari

Progetto ACME Phone

Mercato

Considerazioni finali

Mercato Potenziale

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Delta Team consulting

Gianluca Greco è business consultant di Delta Team, mail: g.greco@delta-team.it

Ha maturato esperienze e sviluppato competenze nei seguenti ambiti: riorganizzazione aziendale, strategie commerciali e posizionamento commerciale, sviluppo modelli di business, valutazione di azienda. E’ autore di numerose pubblicazioni sui temi della distribuzione e del marketing.