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“If you don’t own a home, buy one.
If you own one home, buy another one.
If you own two homes, buy a third.
And, lend your relatives the money to
buy a home.”
– John Paulson 9/27/2010
Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates –– 30 year fixed30 year fixed
Federal Reserve
NAR Projections
Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates – 30 year fixed– 30 year fixed
MBA Projections
5.4%
5.8%
National Association of Realtors, Mortgage Bankers Association 10/2010
DS News 9/28/2010
Shadow InventoryShadow InventoryS&P’s assessment of the stretch it will take the industry to clear the current volume of distressed properties in the shadows is about 41 months. That’s up from the 33-month timeline projected by the agency’s analysts earlier this year.
According to the agency’s report, the growth in the shadow inventory is having three primary effects in the housing market:
1. low liquidation rates artificially skew the visible supply of distressed homes available for sale
2. the growing inventory negatively pressures existing home prices
3. only when the backlog clears, will market home prices fully correct.
Clear Capital Clear Capital - Special Release- Special Release
Clear Capital 10/22/2010
two-month 5.9% price decline
Case Shiller Home Price IndexCase Shiller Home Price Index
Standard & Poors Index 10/26/2010
"We are at a flex point in housing valuation," said Michael Feder,
President and CEO of Radar Logic. "With
record supply, already paltry demand and
systemic threats to a possible correction, we
remain terribly concerned about
forward home prices." RPX Monthly Housing Market Report 10/21/2010
PricesPrices
Morgan Stanley expects 2011 home prices to fall 5% to 10% from this year with four years of flat prices after that, although "the risk of slight additional downside in prices, and extension of the trough to 2012, has increased."
Morgan StanleyMorgan Stanley
Housing Wire 10/01/2010
MacroMarkets 10/2010 SurveySource: KCM 11/2010
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey
The percentage of experts who saw no price growth for the rest of 2010.
Macro Market
TODAY 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey
Source: KCM 11/2010
Macro Market Home Price Expectations Survey 10/2010
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey
Macro Market
Home Price Expectation SurveyHome Price Expectation Survey
Source: KCM 11/2010
Projected Cumulative Price Changes vs. Year-end 2009 by Year
FHFA Projections 10/21/2010
Explanation of previous slideExplanation of previous slide
The Wall Street JournalThe Wall Street Journal“Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.”– WSJ 9/16/2010
1. You can get a good deal. 2. Mortgages are cheap. 3. You can save on taxes. 4. It will be yours. 5. You’ll get a better home. 6. It offers some inflation protection. 7. It’s risk capital. 8. It’s forced savings. 9. There is a lot to choose from. 10.Sooner or later, the market will clear.
Wall Street Journal 9/16/2010
A Dream House After AllA Dream House After All
Karl Case Karl Case of Case Shiller of Case Shiller
“It means having a solid and fairly safe long-term investment that is coupled with the satisfaction of owning the house they live in. That dream is still alive…For people with a realistic version of the American Dream, buying a house now can make a lot of sense.”
New York Times 9/1/2010
“If you don’t own a home, buy one.
If you own one home, buy another one.
If you own two homes, buy a third.
And, lend your relatives the money to
buy a home.”
– John Paulson 9/27/2010
Fannie Mae: National Housing Survey
70% Say Time to Buy is Now70% Say Time to Buy is Now
Fannie Mae 9/2010
70% of respondents think it is a good time to buy a house (of which 36% think it is a very good time to buy), up six points from January. This is also four points higher than the 2003 survey – well before home prices peaked – when 66 % said it was a good time.
