Attribution Analysis

1© 2011 Mediaplex, Inc. All Rights Reservedwww.mediaplex.com

Whitepaper

Contents Quick Links

Introduction [PG. 1]

Track and Manage Marketing Channels on

a Single Platform [PG. 2]

Path to Conversion Data Combined with Intelligent,

Ongoing Analysis [PG. 3]

Path to Conversion Studies: Client Examples

[PG. 5]

Conclusion and Key Takeaways for Marketers

[PG. 11]

Attribution Analysis–Best Practices for Finding Your Path to SuccessOne of the persistent challenges marketers face is how to most effectively manage

their marketing spend to achieve the best outcome for their advertising programs.

This is further compounded when independently managing multiple online channels

(e.g., display, paid search, natural search, affiliate, social, mobile and email

marketing programs) with little to no visibility into how these programs may

impact each other. How can marketers better understand how each component

of their marketing program is really affecting conversions to make truly informed

decisions? While managing to the true Return on Ad Spend (ROAS) across marketing

channels is the desired outcome, how can marketers do this in both a cost-

effective and meaningful way to achieve the results they desire?

These challenges illustrate the importance of understanding how each component

of your marketing activity impacts desired conversion activity. After all, without

these insights, how can you make the informed decisions to drive optimal results?

In a recent report on the value of integrating search and display channels,

eMarketer further underscores this sentiment, explaining:

“ Most conversions occur as a result of long-term, complex interactions

among a variety of ads and marketing channels. However, even after

years of research, some marketers still give more weight to the

consumer’s last click – often on search results, both ads and organic

listings- than any other step in the purchase funnel leading to conversion.

That mistaken notion makes it hard to effectively blend search and display

advertising into an overall campaign and allocate spending based on

true performance.”1

This whitepaper reviews best practices to help you understand what is really driving

conversion activity across all your online marketing channels and sites, and how these

valuable insights can help you make better decisions around marketing spend allocation

for optimal ROAS. You will learn the importances of the following practices:

✓ Track and manage all your marketing programs through one system

✓ Gather and identify the Path to Conversion data you will need to answer

your questions

1 Hallerman, D. (2011, April). Integrating Search and Display: Tactics for More Effective Advertising.

Retrieved from eMarketer database.


✓ Identify the right questions to put you on the road to success

✓ Apply both data and analysis to deliver your specific formula

for success

✓ Commit to ongoing data collection, analysis and refinement

Track and Manage Marketing Channels on a Single PlatformBefore marketers can even begin to understand how their marketing channels

influence each other and impact conversion activity, they must first ensure they

are properly tracking and managing all of their marketing channels in unison –

using a single system. Even if marketers are using various, independent solutions

for managing paid search or email, for example, those marketing channels should

still use a unified analytics platform for tracking clicks and impressions. Moving to

a single, comprehensive platform allows marketers to accurately track conversions

and view consumer interaction data from ALL online channels and sites, as well as

establish the baseline for how they will define the data for any future analysis.

Path to Conversion® Data

Now that a solid foundation for consistently tracking and managing all the

data across online activity has been established, the next step is to take a look

at identifying all the different paths, or sequence of events, a user took that

led to the conversion event. This view into the entire path of events leading

up to a conversion plays a critical role in helping marketers understand the

true performance of their marketing efforts across all the different programs

and channels they are now tracking. This data delivers the critical information

necessary to understand how the advertising campaigns work together with a

single marketing objective, rather than as channels in silos competing against

each other.

The sequence of events leading up to a conversion is known as Path to Conversion

data. Examples of these events include impressions, clicks and any other tracked

event within a marketing channel. Path to Conversion data allows advertisers

to view and analyze their media buys beyond the last click event - giving them

greater insight into their data by revealing the entire path of events leading up to

a conversion.


Path to Conversion Data Combined with Intelligent, Ongoing Analysis Once the foundation for the data has been established, and the relevant data paths for

the conversion activity have been gathered, the next step is to establish the questions

marketers want answered in order to achieve their goals. Years of experience

demonstrate there is no one size fits all approach to understanding the Path to

Conversion. Marketers should evaluate their specific business goals and objectives

alongside their Path to Conversion data in order to develop a customized solution

that they can then continue to optimize and refine.

The following attribution framework is useful in helping marketers identify the

marketing mix variables (sites, creatives, channels, etc.) and conversion types

(e.g. number of orders, number of sales, number of registrations, etc.) that apply

to their current business in order to identify which pieces are most relevant. The

subsequent Path to Conversion analysis then shines a light on the process through

which the marketing mix variables generate conversions. It shows how the

marketing mix variables interact, where adjusting spending on the marketing mix

variables can lead to more efficient conversion generation, and how marketers can

create more conversions. For example, marketers looking to achieve maximum

SITES

CHANNELS

CREATIVES

Marketing Mix

Profile & Event Data

Conversions

ordersROI 1

registrationsROI 3

ROI 2sales

Profile 1

Attribute 1

Return

NewSize

Content

Rich Media

DynamicMessaging

Site 1

Site 2

Site 3

Display

Email

Affiliate

Offsite Social

Mobile

NaturalSearch

PaidSearch

CUSTOMER PROFILE

Introducers Influencers Converters

Broad Search Fuzzy Search Exact Search

ATTRIBUTION FRAMEWORK


scale with their marketing investment will often focus as much attention toward

the top of the funnel as the bottom of the funnel, and optimizing the significant

role introducers play in generating conversions. Path to Conversion provides the

insights to support these sophisticated goals, enabling marketers to make the

most effective adjustments to the marketing mix and achieve the desired results.

After the attribution framework has been identified, marketers can begin to define

the key questions they want answered by their Path to Conversion model. Once

they have selected the right questions, they can then set out to determine the

time frame during which they need their activities to run and be measured before

beginning to analyze the data. When phrasing each question, they should try to

do so in the form of a testable hypothesis. An example of this might be stated as:

True or false? Display and paid search can be proven to perform better with users

who have interacted with both. Oftentimes, when first approaching the process,

the advertiser may not realize that the answers are not always black and white,

but more like shades of grey. Framing a question as a hypothesis helps the marketer

focus the study. Once a marketer has identified the questions, the data and

analysis will reveal if the answers to the questions are statistically significant.

After establishing the questions for the study, the following is recommended:

• Track and analyze Path to Conversion data for one month. This timeframe is an

average which may vary depending on the volume of the data.

• For each conversion, include up to the last 10 impression (14 day window), last

10 click (120 day window), and last 10 natural search (30 day window) events.

• Path to Conversion data should include all media exposures within the utilized

marketing channels.

• All Path to Conversion data should be tracked and managed in a single

technology platform.

Once Path to Conversion data has been captured for the established time period,

the analysis can begin.


Path to Conversion Studies: Client Examples

Let’s review how a few advertisers framed successful Path to Conversion studies

to not only ensure they were properly crediting conversions, but also using the

information to better allocate marketing spend across all relevant sites and

marketing channels for the best possible performance.

The following five questions provided these advertisers with the right mix of data

and actionable insights to better understand what drove conversions, as well as

how to use this information to refine their media decisions and spend to most

positively impact their bottom lines.

1) Which marketing channels are influencing response rates?

To answer this question, the following two types of analysis were performed:

Channel Analysis: This shows the number of conversions credited to each

channel based on single attribution (conversions won), and how many conversions

were influenced by the channel (conversions influenced).

Cross-Channel Analysis: This shows how one channel is having an impact on

another channel’s conversions. This type of analysis may reveal that one channel

is simply self-sufficient in converting users while another channel is heavily

influenced by other channels.

Convert Channel

Media Exposures

Conversions Influenced

Conversions Credited

Paid Search

Affiliate Display Email

Paid Search

110,293 97,270 96,347 96,347 548 11,327 232

Affiliate 44,754 28,364 27,669 504 27,669 3,456 82

Display 130,118 34,246 17,491 281 56 17,491 50

Email 11,674 9,058 8,694 138 91 1,971 8,694

Total 296,838 168,938 150,202 97,270 28,364 34,246 9,058

Influence % of Conversions Credited

Convert Channel

Media Exposures

Conversions Influenced

Conversions Credited

Paid Search

Affiliate Display Email

Paid Search

37% 65% 64% 100% 1% 12% 0%

Affiliate 15% 19% 18% 2% 100% 12% 0%

Display 44% 23% 12% 2% 0% 100% 0%

Email 4% 6% 6% 2% 1% 23% 100%

Source: Mediaplex


Answer

As a result of this analysis, the advertiser learned the following:

• The most valuable insight in this study is that display has a much bigger impact

on conversions than is obvious from the standard last click attribution. It

influenced nearly twice as many conversions (23%) as it was credited (12%).

• Paid search accounted for 37% of all media exposures but influenced 65% of

conversions and was credited with 64% of conversions.

• Display accounted for 44% of all media exposures but influenced 23% of

conversions and was credited with only 12% of conversions.

• 12% of the conversions that were credited to the paid search channel were

influenced by display.

• Email played a significant role only in conversions credited to that channel.

2) How does a channel’s ROAS change when that channel’s impact on non-credited conversions is included?

To answer this question, standard conversion metrics, along with path to

conversion (influence) metrics, were collected and analyzed to more effectively

evaluate performance of the entire media plan. Standard conversion metrics help

identify which media buys are effective “converters.” Path to Conversion metrics

and analysis help identify and quantify the value of “influencers” on conversions.

The following Path to Conversion performance metrics were then applied to

answer this question:

• Conversions influenced

• Cost per conversion influenced

• Average revenue per conversion influenced


Answer

Including the supporting role of a media exposure in leading to a conversion can

have a dramatic impact on valuing the benefits of media spending. At first glance,

analysis shows us when using standard metrics that the MSN buy appears to be

the better performing media buy with a $94.79 cost per conversion. But when

the Path to Conversion metrics are incorporated, one will notice that the Yahoo

buy may be the more efficient and effective media buy in the overall impact on

all conversions.

• Yahoo was credited with 12.7% of total conversions but had an influence on

20.6% of total conversions.

• Yahoo interacted 4.4 times with the conversions that it influenced (slightly less

than MSN at 4.5).

• Yahoo had a lower “cost per conversion influenced” than MSN ($70.42 vs. $83.68).

• Yahoo also influenced conversions that had a higher revenue value than MSN

($147.30 vs. $111.55).

Media Buy Conversions

Won

% Total

Conversions

Won

Total Cost Cost Per

Conversion

Win

Conversions

Influenced

% of Total

Conversions

Influenced

Total P2C

Media

Exposure

Avg. # of

P2C Media

Exposure

per

Conversion

Influenced

Cost Per

Conversion

Influenced

Avg.

Revenue

Per

Conversion

Influenced

Advertising.

com

201 9.70% $20,000 $99.50 301 14.60% 1220 4.1 $66.45 $115.23

AOL.com 246 11.90% $25,000 $101.63 299 14.50% 814 2.7 $83.61 $134.56

Google.

com

301 14.60% $20,500 $68.11 378 18.30% 822 2.2 $54.23 $138.22

MSN 211 10.20% $20,000 $94.79 239 11.60% 1083 4.5 $83.68 $111.55

Yahoo.com 263 12.70% $30,000 $114.07 426 20.60% 1878 4.4 $70.42 $147.30

Other 846 40.90% $115,500 $136.52

Total 2068 100% $231,000 $111.70

Source: Mediaplex


3) What are the effects of generic search terms on branded search terms?

To answer this question, the advertiser first identified branded keywords. An

example of a branded keyword would be the name of the company or product.

Next the advertiser reviewed the conversion path data to identify how many times

a relevant, non-branded keyword preceded a branded keyword in the conversion path.

Search Type Wins Share of Wins

Branded 14,495 71%

Not Branded 6,023 29%

Total 20,518 100%

Number of Generic Search Words Before First Branded Search Event in Branded Search Win

Number of Search Wins Number of Search Wins

0 9,453 65%

1 4,220 29%

2 800 6%

3 12 0%

4 4 0%

5 4 0%

7 1 0%

8 1 0%

Answer

• 29% of the search channel wins were based upon keywords that were not

brand specific. This is a significant lift above an earlier study where they only

accounted for 10% of the keyword wins.

• Non-branded keywords had a noticeable influence on branded search wins. 35%

of brand keyword search wins had a non-branded search event occur somewhere

earlier in the Path to Conversion.

• 9,453 of the 20,518 Search channel wins (46%) were based upon someone

already searching for the client, using search as more of a navigational rather

than influential tool.

Source: Mediaplex


4) What are the most common multi-site paths to conversion?

To answer this question, the full path to conversion data for the last 20 events

prior to conversion was analyzed.

Answer

• Long path conversions (3+ events) are driven by either Right Media or

ValueClick.com impressions. Advertising.com is involved in shorter

path conversions.

• Time lags between the last event and the conversion are also identified,

as well as the time taken for the entire conversion path.

Source: Mediaplex

...2000

Top 6

Paths

Conversions

Won

Events

In

Path

Winning

Timelag

(Median

Hours)

Entire

Path

Length

(Median

Hours)

Last Event 2nd Last 3rd Last 4th Last … 10th

last

1 358 10 1.39 19.71 Advertising.

com Display

Right Media

Display

Right Media

Display

Right Media

Display

… Right Media

Display

2 346 2 0.77 0.93 Advertising.

com Display

ValueClick

Display

…

3 202 2 0.04 0.38 Yahoo

Search

Advertising.

com Display

…

4 151 3 0.04 0.35 ValueClick

Display

Advertising.

com Display

Advertising.

com Display

…

5 141 3 0.22 7.82 ValueClick

Display

ValueClick

Display

Advertising.

com Display

…

6 140 10 0.31 0.33 Advertising.

com Display

ValueClick

Display

ValueClick

Display

ValueClick

Display

… ValueClick

Display


5) What is the impact of changing the attribution model from last click to first click?

Answer

• Display gets credit for 20 email attributed conversions, 30 natural search

attributed conversions and 400 paid search attributed conversions. This

increases its conversion share from 44% to 54%, a 22% increase.

• Paid search gives 400 attributed conversions to display and 75 attributed

conversions to email, dropping its share by 30%, from 33% to 23%.

• Re-scoring the cost per conversion drops the display cost per conversion from

$1.00 to $0.82, and increases paid search from $0.50 to $0.73.

These questions and resulting answers are great examples of how advertisers

were able to frame successful Path to Conversion studies in order meet their

specific goals and objectives. These examples also further demonstrate that Path

to Conversion data is unique to each organization, so marketers need to decide

the questions that will be most actionable for them based on their own marketing

channels and sales cycles. This should also be approached as a continuous process

on the path to achieving the greatest ROAS. The following are examples of some

other potential questions marketers may want to ask:

Convert

Channel

Conversions

Credited

Conversions

Credited

Share

Media

Spend

$ Per

Conversion

Display Email Social

Networks

Natural

Search

Paid

Search

Re-Scored

Conversions

Credited

Re-Scored

Conversions

Credited

Share

Re-Scored

$ Per

Conversion

Display 2000 44% $2,000 $1.00 20 30 400 2,450 54% $0.82

Email 300 7% $600 $2.00 (20) 75 355 8% $1.69

Social

Networks

500 11% $1,000 $2.00 500 11% $2.00

Natural

Search

200 4% - - (30) 170 4% -

Paid

Search

1500 33% $750 $0.50 (400) (75) 1,025 23% $0.73

Total 4,500 100% $4,350 $0.97 (450) (55) - 30 475 4,500 100% $0.97

1st Click Events Not Credited

with Conversions

Source: Mediaplex


• What are the effects of display on search (both paid search and natural search)?

• How many times is your advertising interacting with users prior to their conversion?

• Is a long haul campaign with multiple media exposures over a long time or short

intense bursts of media more rewarding?

• How many different creatives do customers usually see before they convert?

• How do channels differ in latency (time between media exposure and

conversion)?

• How does the conversion lift from display ads diminish over time?

Conclusion and Key Takeaways for MarketersFinding the right formula for attribution success will certainly vary from business

to business, but by following the fundamentals outlined above, marketers can be

confident they are moving in the right direction. While many takeaways may be

gleamed from this whitepaper, the following key benefits of attribution analysis

further underscore the importance of getting started now if you haven’t already:

1. Achieve better ROAS – Reviewing your conversion path data will reveal the

true role of all your sites and channels in the conversion process, yielding

significant insights you cannot gleam from a single attribution model. This will

allow you to confidently and successfully allocate marketing spend to the sites

and channels that will yield the best ROAS.

2. Deliver more effective messages – Path to Conversion helps you to

understand the role each site and channel plays in the conversion process.

Knowing which one plays the role of “the introducer” or “the influencer” or

“the converter” allows you to most effectively message to you audience

based on the site’s specific role in the conversion path.

3. Understand true ROI behind search activity – Reviewing the conversion

paths within paid and natural search clearly separates branded keywords from

non-branded ones. This allows you to identify what really generates new

recruitment of users to your site from online advertising activities versus those

users who are strictly clicking on branded keywords as a means of site

navigation.


About Mediaplex

Mediaplex provides cross-channel advertising technology solutions and services that enable

marketers to achieve one-to-one messaging, greater efficiencies and a competitive edge through

insightful reporting and analytics. Our team of industry experts focuses on putting the customer first,

providing advanced technology solutions alongside consulting services for the greatest return on

their marketing spend. Our ability to blend technology, campaign experience and customized expert

analysis gives our clients more than just a product or service but a true partnership. Since 1996,

Mediaplex has serviced more than 20,000 marketers and currently manages more than $1 billion

in annual digital ad spend for its clients, which include AccuQuote, eBay, Shutterfly, Sirius, United

Airlines and Wells Fargo.

Contact Us to Learn More

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415.644.1400 direct | 1.877.402.7539 toll free

[email protected]

Visit us online at www.mediaplex.com

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Attribution Analysis