‘A Brave New World’: The End of the Survey Research

Clifford Young, Managing Director of Public Sector and Polling

MRA Spring Symposium

April 2012 © 2012 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

The market and social research world is changing…

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as a function of the Digital and Virtual

Revolution

Three ways to look at these changes

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1. The Aggregator Savages are at the Gate

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Some Aggregator Savages

2. The breakdown of metodological Gold Standards...

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Decline of the Landline Telephone Survey

Decline of single proprietary Opt-In Panels

• 55% of all market research in the US in done online

• Increasingly difficult to recruit panels

• Especially among younger cohorts

As a function of the way we communicate and interact socially

Old way… New way

3. A socialized-digital world is creating new social aggregations

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Explosion of Facebook as an example

Dec '04 Dec '05 Dec '06 Dec '07 Dec '08 Dec '09 Dec '10 Dec '110

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Million Users

Source: newsroom.FB.com

New Ways to Interact Socially

Old way… New way

What are some implications?

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• Exponential increase in the amount of data

• New forms of data collection

• New forms of social organization

• From “narrative” to “experience”

• Increases access to hard-to-reach population

BIG QUESTION:

Substitution or Enhancement?

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What is Ipsos doing in light of these social transformations?

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New approaches in changing a world

• Blended Online Sampling

• Socialized Research

• Blended Modeling Both Enhancement and Substitution Strategies

Cortex – Routing & Blended Sampling

I-Say

PANEL B

COMMUNITY SITE

SOCIAL NETWORK

REWARDS PROGRAM

PANEL C

AD NETWORKS

Ampario

Traditional

De-d

uplic

ation

LIKELY SURVEY

Single Survey

Single Survey

Cortex Sample

Draws from over 400 non-panel

websites

Panel Sample

Non-panelSample

Cortex Router

Sample Parceling

D

CA

B

Blended Online Sampling

How do blended samples perform?

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Demographically well……

Household Income

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

Cortex

CPS

Attitudinally too…………….

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Satisfied Dissatisfied Unsure/DK

Satisfaction with State of the Nation

Cortex

Pew Research Center

Nailing two Republican primaries 2012

Ipsos Online

Average of All Polls

Election Results

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2

0.1

0.2

1

Ipsos Online

Average of All Polls

Election Results

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

15

8.7

14.6

Ohio Primary

Florida Primary

Socialized Research

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Crisis management case study:Enchacement and Social Listening

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Media is not necessarily a leading indicator of consumer sentiment

Difference between what news reports and what people talk about

Consumer Chatter Coincides with Social Media Mentions

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Effective

ResponsiveFamily Values

InnovativeLeader

EthicalSocially Responsible

5/23-6/19 6/20-7/17 7/18-8/14 8/15-9/11 9/12-10/9 10/10-11/0640

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71

68

5961 61

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60 60

51

62

5253

48

55

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Before After

Cain Smoking Ad:Enchacement and Social Experience

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Blended Modeling

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Obama 85% chance of winning

Model includes 300 elections and 2 variables all gathered via

the internet

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Vacations Internet searches for "Vacations"

Do we even need a survey here?

Internet Mentions in Predicting Vacations

What are the institutional and human capital demands of this

new world?

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1. Acknowledge that the world is different

2. Need for a more complete toolbox of survey and non-survey approaches

3. “Non-ignorable” to “Conditionally ignorable” world of error

4. Professionals need to have a more eclectic background