Land Use Modelling for Developing Countries

Presenter: David FreerThursday 14 August 2014

• The Project• Developing the model – challenges• Approach adopted – step through• Outcomes and lessons learnt

Note: Project is live and commercial in confidence – no actual model data can be provided

Presentation Overview

The Project

Building the Model – data inputs, parameters, outcomes

The Study Area

Model Development – Challenges

• Road Network• No consistent or accurate road database (GIS centre line, lanes, speeds etc)• Limited future network planning – only ADB projects

• Road Operations• No reliable traffic counts• No OD or TT Surveys• No freight use surveys

• Model parameters• Nothing official – we developed them

• Land Use• Limited census data – very limited place of work data• No HTS, JTW – very limited travel behaviour data only observed• Limited car registration

Future Year Land Use Planning

• Now what?

Gap Analysis

• What have we got and how we can get more• census and other data analysis and manipulation• Survey options/consultation• Get help- uni

• Zoning system - Divisional Secretary’s Divisions (DSD)• Assessment Time Frames – 20 year project assessment• Mapping land use patterns • Assumptions and guiding principles • Getting to a base data set• Data processing• Running the model and scenarios

Making sense of it all – Land use

• GIS land use mapping• Get all the data – its out there somewhere • Demographic Data sets – we define

• Population groups• Household• Vehicle registrations• Employment groups

• Assumptions• live and work in relatively close proximity – DSD total generally as

control• Generic industry destines per employment type were used as a guide. • 2001 census data land use patterns were largely reflective of 2012 land

patterns

Mapping the land use - existing

Percentage Growth per year

2011 - 2016 2016 - 2021 2021 - 2023 2026 - 2036

Employment 1.79% 1.65% 1.44% 1.24%Population 1.41% 1.26% 1.12% 0.99%Household 1.93% 1.85% 1.78% 1.46%

Motor Car Registration 7.28% 6.61% 5.96% 5.43%

Mapping the land use – future

• Growth rates outside of growth centres were based on historical growth, national growth projections with following assumptions

• Annual growth rates will progressively slowdown in the long term future

• Average household size will gradually reduce in the future• Vehicles per household will gradually increase in the future• Employment: population rate will gradually increase in the future • Total population and employment growth capped to projected growth

rate for that date period for whole study area

Data Processing

• Data Cleansing and Analysis• Base Year (2012) Demographic

Data• Population• Employment• Registration

• Future Year Growth Rates – balancing

• Incorporation into the model • Trip generation rates

(regression analysis)

Data Processing

Population Growth – Study Area

Employment Growth – Study Area

Modelled Versus Observed

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10,000

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20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

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Mod

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Observed

• On the ground time and discussions

• Use local knowledge and support• Getting the right team• Be pragmatic and flexible –

preparation, project framing, assumptions, technology V experience

• Patience and persistence

Key Lessons Learnt

Thank You

Banora Point Upgrade, New South Wales, Australia