1. The Art and Science of Decision-Making Doug Fertuck March 4,
2. Elements of a Decision Doug Fertuckwww.fertuck.com
248-881-3244 3. Elements of a Marketing Decision Apply the lessons
of the market and product analysis 4. Doug Fertuckwww.fertuck.com
248-881-3244 Potential serious surgical complications Surgery still
an option Surgery still an option Pain Mobility Time/Cost/Insurance
Total Score 7 6 2 15 5 4 2 11 3 2 1 6 3 2 6 11 5 4 8 17 5 4 6 15 6
6 6 18 4 3 6 13 5. Mind Map of Smart Decision Making Develop ways
to manage the risk of your choice Trade-off desirability vs.
probability Understand your risk tolerance to choose under
uncertainty Use decision trees to model the process Understand the
consequences of each outcome Assign probabilities to each outcome
Define possible outcomes for each uncertainty Identify key
uncertainties Address Uncertainty If Necessary Rethink the unsure
judgments Seek information as necessary to make informed swaps
Simplify a complex decision the even swap method Eliminate the
dominated tradeoffs Make the Necessary Tradeoffs Understand if
there is meaningful uncertainty Seek judgments of others
selectively Use objective measures and scales as appropriate
Imagine yourself in the future as you assess Assess each
alternative against each objective (Consequences Table) Describe
the Consequences Know when to quit Gather data as appropriate Seek
other ideas after exhausting your own Don't prejudge; challenge
constraints Develop a range of alternatives by thinking"how to meet
the objectives Generate Alternatives Clarify and test your thinking
Focus on ends not means Brainstorm all your concerns and wishes
What do you really need and want? Define the Objectives or Decision
Criteria Be creative, expansive, and critical Generate alternative
problem definitions Challenge the constraints What is the "trigger
driving the need to make a decision? Define the Decision Problem
Doug Fertuckwww.fertuck.com 248-881-3244 Make a Smart Decision 6.
Checklist for the Decision Process
Are you defining the problem too narrowly?
Have you accurately definedallthe important criteria?
Have you generated a wide range of alternatives?
Are you overlooking important consequences?
Are your evaluations of alternatives consistent?
Have you identified the key uncertainties?
Can you take action to manage risks?
7. Checklist of Common Psychological Traps
Are you favoring your first idea (anchoring)?
Are you inclined to keep doing what you are doing?
Are you protecting an earlier decision (sunk-cost)?
Do you want to jump to something completely different (throwing
the baby out with the bathwater)?
Are you slanting probabilities and estimates just to be
Are you being overly influenced by rare, dramatic events?
Are you ignoring relevant information?
Are you seeing patterns in random events?
8. Focus of Breakout Session Apply the lessons of the market and
product analysis 9. Breakout Mini-Project
Define a decision problem
Identify the decision criteria
Note which are the 3 most important criteria and why?