Services sector innovation to support the Defence Estate

Crowd forecasting for better decision making

Derek OsbornChief Executive, Government

Services and Outsourcing

About Broadspectrum

We deliver a broad range of services that are essential to our clients

across multiple sectors.

About Broadspectrum

Broadspectrum is now part of the Ferrovial group

24Countries

$20bannual revenue

100,000people

“In every way that people, firms, or governments act and plan, they are making implicit forecasts about the future.”

The Economist

December, 1999

Where else are crowdsourced predictions being used?

We are working with large corporate and government

entities around the world to:

• Predict product demand and

sales performance

• Quantify competitive threats

and market trends

• Early warning indicator about

key performance metrics and

milestones

• Early awareness of

operational issues in product

development or project

management

Key Benefits for Broadspectrum

Increase the value of the investment in

our employees by creating collective

intelligence where there once was

none;

Remove the disconnect between

strategic and operational decision

making by leadership and the “ground

truth” our teams possess but find it

difficult to communicate; and

Increase engagement – everyone has

skin in the game by being asked for their

judgments.

Crowd forecasting pilot

What is the underlying benefit?

Key Benefits for BRS Employees

A voice to express true beliefs in a

quantitative and helpful way;

An increased sense of ownership in

critical decisions that may directly

impact them; and

An opportunity to be recognised for

existing knowledge and experience

agnostic to title or compensation.

Publish

forecasting

questions on

the platform

that will

inform the

decision

Ongoing

probabilistic predictions

Rationales for predictions and

discussions

Measurement of individual and

org performance

OUTPUTS

I have a

strategic

decision to

make

Update predictions as new information becomes available

Share what they know in discussion threads

Participants

make their best

predictions

Leaderboard of best forecasters

Feedback from leader(s) of how predictions are being used

How does it work in practice

Useful question structures

Guiding operational and portfolio management decisions:

Will initiative X meet its performance targets this fiscal year?

Will project X be completed on time?

Will research project X yield Y result?

What is the likelihood of X risk occurring on project Y?

Will the contractor complete the project by X date?

If X occurs, how will it affect the effectiveness of the initiative?

Guiding strategic planning:

Will we achieve X level of growth by Y?

What will be the most used technology in X area by 2017?

Will we client X receive funding for project Y?

Participants tell us WHY they predicted the way they did…

“Stronger economic data coming out for us, could push higher”

“US election uncertainty”

“Dollar sneaking higher but unlikely to break 80c”

“currently sitting at 75....Oz election

is gone, interest rates adjusted....”

“Reducing interest rates wont be

enough to make it lift“

“Markets on hold until US election,

steady in band until then”

Date Rate

Late July 0.770

Mid August 0.765

Late August 0.755

Mid Sept 0.745

Late Sept 0.765

Crowd forecasting pilot

Engagement proven – the crowd monitored the environment

and updates AUD / USD FOREX forecast based on external events

and intelligence

ELT CEP

Total number 8 19

Average # of Predictions31

per person27

per person

Average Individual Accuracy* 84 84

*Note: Accuracy is largely determined by how far your prediction was from the correct answer in a given question. We use a Brier score, which is converted to a scale from 50-100. The closer to 100, the more accurate you are as a forecaster.

Co

re /

Hig

h In

ten

sity

use

rs

Crowd forecasting pilot

Good levels of overall engagement

112Registered

participants

>70%

Active participation

970Total

predictions

136Most predictions

recorded in a week

SimilarEngagement between ELT

(72%) and CEP (74%)

A core group of 27 out of 112 users participated regularly (at least

weekly) – this is common practice to have a highly engaged sub-group

This group contributed to 78% of the total predictions on the site and

averaged 28 predictions per person

Breakdown of highly engaged group:

Questions?

11