Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Global Warming and the Biodiversity Crisis

Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Global Warming and the Biodiversity Crisis

Derrick Anderson

Benjamin Lundeen

Deanna Martinez

Jaime Slye

Earth as an EcosystemEarth as an Ecosystem

All of the world’s abiotic and biotic entities belong to one ecological system – Planet Earth.

One change in one location has the potential to affect the rest of this ecological system

All of the world’s abiotic and biotic entities belong to one ecological system – Planet Earth.

One change in one location has the potential to affect the rest of this ecological system

biocene - community of living organisms biotype - physical and chemical elements

Sizes – micro (a tree log in a stream) to macro (the stream and surrounding landscape) to regional (watershed) to continental to global. The scale chosen is directly related to the specific area of study.

biocene - community of living organisms biotype - physical and chemical elements

Sizes – micro (a tree log in a stream) to macro (the stream and surrounding landscape) to regional (watershed) to continental to global. The scale chosen is directly related to the specific area of study.

Levels of EcosystemsLevels of Ecosystems

How Ecosystems ChangeHow Ecosystems Change

Annual changes- Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer

Seasonal changes – temperature, rainfall, sunlight

Natural changes - hurricanes, tornadoes, monsoons, tsunami, fires, floods

Annual changes- Autumn, Winter, Spring, Summer

Seasonal changes – temperature, rainfall, sunlight

Natural changes - hurricanes, tornadoes, monsoons, tsunami, fires, floods

How Ecosystems ChangeHow Ecosystems Change

Changes in response to Humans Chemically induced change Physically induced change Increase in number and strength of natural disasters

Fires and flooding due to landscape alterations Hurricanes due to ocean water warming

Sometimes irreversible

Changes in response to Humans Chemically induced change Physically induced change Increase in number and strength of natural disasters

Fires and flooding due to landscape alterations Hurricanes due to ocean water warming

Sometimes irreversible

Earth as an ecosystemEarth as an ecosystem

An ecosystem is an ecological unit comprising of physical, chemical, and biological entities interacting in such a way that nothing is wasted – if left alone.

Natural and seasonal changes take place, altering the ecosystem in a non-deleterious way

An ecosystem is an ecological unit comprising of physical, chemical, and biological entities interacting in such a way that nothing is wasted – if left alone.

Natural and seasonal changes take place, altering the ecosystem in a non-deleterious way

ResponsesResponses

Phenological Changes Migration Invasive Species Interactions Extinction Evolvability and the biodiversity crisis Discussion

Phenological Changes Migration Invasive Species Interactions Extinction Evolvability and the biodiversity crisis Discussion

Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes

Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes The relationship

between climate and the timing of seasonal natural phenomena.

The relationship between climate and the timing of seasonal natural phenomena.

• Temperature rise greatest at northern latitudes– Longer growing

season– Increased

photosynthetic activity

Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes

• Calling phenology in frogs– Ithaca– Six species– 100 years– 10-13-day advance

with a 1.0-2.3°C increase

Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes

• Laying dates of first clutches in birds– United Kingdom– 65 species– Advanced by an

average of 8.8 days

Phenological ChangesPhenological Changes

• Aquatic systems– Lake,

Northwestern US– 1962 to 2002– Phytoplankton

bloom advanced by 19 days

– Zooplankton peak more varied

MigrationsMigrations

Observed range ShiftsObserved range Shifts

Studies of range shifts fall into two types Those that infer large-scale range shifts in their

range boundary (regional) Those that infer range shifts from changes in

species composition (community)

Studies of range shifts fall into two types Those that infer large-scale range shifts in their

range boundary (regional) Those that infer range shifts from changes in

species composition (community)

Shifts at Polar LatitudesShifts at Polar Latitudes

Broad impacts of climate change in polar regions From range shifts to community restructuring

and ecosystem function

Broad impacts of climate change in polar regions From range shifts to community restructuring

and ecosystem function

Antarctic and Arctic migrationsAntarctic and Arctic migrations

Antarctic Adelie and Emperor penguins have nearly disappeared

from their northern most sites around Antarctica since 1970.These birds are moving southward due to melting at the caps

Arctic Nearly every Arctic ecosystem shows marked shifts Diatom and invertebrate assemblages in Arctic lakes

have shown huge species’ turnover, shifting away from benthic species toward more planktonic and warm-water associated communities.

Antarctic Adelie and Emperor penguins have nearly disappeared

from their northern most sites around Antarctica since 1970.These birds are moving southward due to melting at the caps

Arctic Nearly every Arctic ecosystem shows marked shifts Diatom and invertebrate assemblages in Arctic lakes

have shown huge species’ turnover, shifting away from benthic species toward more planktonic and warm-water associated communities.

Arctic ContinuedArctic Continued

Across northern Alaska, Canada, and parts of Russia, shrubs have been expanding into the tundra areas

This is linked to warming temperatures, increased snow cover, and increased soil microbial activity.

Polar bears have suffered significant population declines at opposite geographic boundaries. They are declining in numbers and mean body weight. Climate change has caused longer ice-free periods, during which the bears starve and are forced to live on reserves because the ice shelf is necessary for feeding

Across northern Alaska, Canada, and parts of Russia, shrubs have been expanding into the tundra areas

This is linked to warming temperatures, increased snow cover, and increased soil microbial activity.

Polar bears have suffered significant population declines at opposite geographic boundaries. They are declining in numbers and mean body weight. Climate change has caused longer ice-free periods, during which the bears starve and are forced to live on reserves because the ice shelf is necessary for feeding

Northern-Hemisphere SpeciesNorthern-Hemisphere Species

59 breeding bird species in Great Britain have shown both expansions and contractions of northern range boundaries

Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) have undergone an expansion of northern boundaries in Europe

Studies indicate that 37 species of resident Odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) in the U.K. have expanded their northern range between 1960-1995

59 breeding bird species in Great Britain have shown both expansions and contractions of northern range boundaries

Lepidoptera (butterflies and moths) have undergone an expansion of northern boundaries in Europe

Studies indicate that 37 species of resident Odonates (dragonflies and damselflies) in the U.K. have expanded their northern range between 1960-1995

Scientists studying Yosemite National Park's found that several animal species have moved to higher altitudes

“An uphill migration possibly spawned by the grinding effects of global warming on one of the nation's most protected wildernesses”.

Scientists studying Yosemite National Park's found that several animal species have moved to higher altitudes

“An uphill migration possibly spawned by the grinding effects of global warming on one of the nation's most protected wildernesses”.

Deserts and Tropical shifts Deserts and Tropical shifts

The Desert Orange Tip butterfly (Colotis evagore), which historically was confined to northern Africa, has established resident populations in Spain while still maintaining the ecological niche

For maturity, this butterfly needs >164 days above 12º C to sustain life

The Desert Orange Tip butterfly (Colotis evagore), which historically was confined to northern Africa, has established resident populations in Spain while still maintaining the ecological niche

For maturity, this butterfly needs >164 days above 12º C to sustain life

The Hummingbird has undergone a dramatic shift in its winter range. Thirty years ago wintered mainly in Mexico.

Now along the Gulf coast of the United States more than a thousand have been sighted in 1998 and it was recorded that they had moved 400 km inland in the past 30 years.

The Hummingbird has undergone a dramatic shift in its winter range. Thirty years ago wintered mainly in Mexico.

Now along the Gulf coast of the United States more than a thousand have been sighted in 1998 and it was recorded that they had moved 400 km inland in the past 30 years.

Elevation ShiftsElevation Shifts

Since the first census in the 1940s, studies in Switzerland have indicated that alpine flora on 26 mountains have shown higher altitudinal shifts

Since the first census in the 1940s, studies in Switzerland have indicated that alpine flora on 26 mountains have shown higher altitudinal shifts

Marine Shifts Marine Shifts

Shifts in marine fish and invertebrate communities have been documented off the west coast of North America and the U.K.

In these regions warm water fish are becoming over-abundant and cool water fish are shifting poleward, from their southern habitats

Shifts in marine fish and invertebrate communities have been documented off the west coast of North America and the U.K.

In these regions warm water fish are becoming over-abundant and cool water fish are shifting poleward, from their southern habitats

Pest and Disease shiftsPest and Disease shifts

Pest species are moving pole ward and are thriving because of higher temps and the ability to reproduce more and faster

For example: Rocky Mountains Pine beetles have changed there life cycles from two years to just one year.

Pest species are moving pole ward and are thriving because of higher temps and the ability to reproduce more and faster

For example: Rocky Mountains Pine beetles have changed there life cycles from two years to just one year.

These changes have also effected human disease incidence and transmission

In Sweden, researchers have document marked increases in diseases transmitted by ticks between 22% - 44% in some regions

These changes have also effected human disease incidence and transmission

In Sweden, researchers have document marked increases in diseases transmitted by ticks between 22% - 44% in some regions

Trees and Tree line Shifts Trees and Tree line Shifts

Trees and Tree lines for the most part are shifting northward But in some areas, global warming has caused

arid areas like in the desert southwest to have increased rainfall, causing trees to become more abundant.

Ultimately, changing the dynamics and composition of deserts and the species that inhabit them, will this lead to more migration?

Trees and Tree lines for the most part are shifting northward But in some areas, global warming has caused

arid areas like in the desert southwest to have increased rainfall, causing trees to become more abundant.

Ultimately, changing the dynamics and composition of deserts and the species that inhabit them, will this lead to more migration?

Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species

Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species Indigenous species are decreasing Invasive species are increasing NISIC Definition:

Non-native Introduction causes economic or

environmental harm or harm to human health

Indigenous species are decreasing Invasive species are increasing NISIC Definition:

Non-native Introduction causes economic or

environmental harm or harm to human health

Invasive SpeciesInvasive Species Interactions with indigenous species

Out-compete Pathogens Pests/parasites

Decrease diversity Loss of productivity and resources 42% of the species on the threatened or endangered

species lists

Interactions with indigenous species Out-compete Pathogens Pests/parasites

Decrease diversity Loss of productivity and resources 42% of the species on the threatened or endangered

species lists

InteractionsInteractions

Interactions Interactions

Species vary in their response to climate change Physiological tolerances Life-history strategies Extinctions / colonizations Dispersal ability

Species vary in their response to climate change Physiological tolerances Life-history strategies Extinctions / colonizations Dispersal ability

Interactions Interactions

Predator-prey Herbivore-host

plant Host-parasitoid

Predator-prey Herbivore-host

plant Host-parasitoid

“For many species, the primary impact of climate change may be mediated through

effects on synchrony with that species’ food and habitat resources.”

“For many species, the primary impact of climate change may be mediated through

effects on synchrony with that species’ food and habitat resources.”

ExtinctionExtinction

Extinctions Extinctions

Amphibians Documented rapid loss

of habitable climate space makes it no surprise that the first extinction of entire species attributed to global warming are mountain restricted species

Amphibians Documented rapid loss

of habitable climate space makes it no surprise that the first extinction of entire species attributed to global warming are mountain restricted species

In Costa Rica cloud-forest-dependant amphibians have declined or gone extinct

Central and South America has seen a 67% decline of the Harlequin frogs in the past 20-30 years

In Costa Rica cloud-forest-dependant amphibians have declined or gone extinct

Central and South America has seen a 67% decline of the Harlequin frogs in the past 20-30 years

ExtinctionsExtinctions

Tropical Coral Reefs are disappearing due to the raise in sea temps of just 1ºC above long term summer averages, leading to their bleaching.

El Nino 1997-1998 caused 95% of corals bleaching in the Indian Ocean, resulting in 16% of corals going extinct globally.

Tropical Coral Reefs are disappearing due to the raise in sea temps of just 1ºC above long term summer averages, leading to their bleaching.

El Nino 1997-1998 caused 95% of corals bleaching in the Indian Ocean, resulting in 16% of corals going extinct globally.

These reefs are effected by the CO2 levels in the atmosphere which alters the ocean’s pH.

Reports suggest if this keeps happening by 2050 the oceans maybe be too acidic for the corals to survive in.

These extinctions also indicate a correlation to the increase in endangered species

These reefs are effected by the CO2 levels in the atmosphere which alters the ocean’s pH.

Reports suggest if this keeps happening by 2050 the oceans maybe be too acidic for the corals to survive in.

These extinctions also indicate a correlation to the increase in endangered species

Evolvability and The Biodiversity Crisis

Evolvability and The Biodiversity Crisis

EvolvabilityEvolvability

Will human impacts on the earth favor the simplification of genetic diversity as we know it today, i.e. is the biodiversity crisis real?

Will human impacts on the earth favor the simplification of genetic diversity as we know it today, i.e. is the biodiversity crisis real?

The Million Dollar QuestionThe Million Dollar Question Is the biodiversity crisis a mass extinction event?

Well, some say yes and others say no, why? Polls indicate that 70% of biologists believe that

mass extinction was underway and that 20% of all species will go extinct in the next 30 years (1998 Harris Poll, Washington Post).

Is the biodiversity crisis a mass extinction event? Well, some say yes and others say no, why?

Polls indicate that 70% of biologists believe that mass extinction was underway and that 20% of all species will go extinct in the next 30 years (1998 Harris Poll, Washington Post).

Future of Evolutionary ProcessesFuture of Evolutionary Processes

Predictions about the future of life revolve around two assumptions: The first concerns human population and its impact on the

ecosystem The second on the consumption of natural resources

With historical data, we are able to project out to 100-years with relative clarity and 1000-years there is too much speculation

So what does it look like?

Predictions about the future of life revolve around two assumptions: The first concerns human population and its impact on the

ecosystem The second on the consumption of natural resources

With historical data, we are able to project out to 100-years with relative clarity and 1000-years there is too much speculation

So what does it look like?

The FutureThe Future 100-year prediction

“reasonably clear” with generally warmer climates, dramatic decreases in species diversity, larger habitat fragments, and a large loss in species variability (evolvability).

Why is it reasonably clear? 1000-year prediction

Too speculative to print Indicating what?

100-year prediction “reasonably clear” with generally warmer climates,

dramatic decreases in species diversity, larger habitat fragments, and a large loss in species variability (evolvability).

Why is it reasonably clear? 1000-year prediction

Too speculative to print Indicating what?

“there was serious concern about the ability of biodiversity to bounce back given the current prospects for tropical forests, wetlands, and coral reefs”

Species Geographic RangesSpecies Geographic Ranges Serve as great indicators of the survivability of a

species following a mass extinction event Historically, species have moved to combat ecosystem

changes, rather than adapted, but if the climate continues to change, humans continue to consume and impacts fragment more habitats, what will happen; if anything? Decrease in genetic variability Increase in aggressive commensal species

THE INVASION BEGINS

Serve as great indicators of the survivability of a species following a mass extinction event

Historically, species have moved to combat ecosystem changes, rather than adapted, but if the climate continues to change, humans continue to consume and impacts fragment more habitats, what will happen; if anything? Decrease in genetic variability Increase in aggressive commensal species

THE INVASION BEGINS

Genetic Aspects of Risk AssessmentGenetic Aspects of Risk Assessment Genetic drift is expected to decrease in commensals and increase in

natives. The most affected populations will be recently isolated, small

populations of natives by genetic erosion Genetic variation studies

Allows for surveys of genetic and demographic information, and their interactions, which may indicate the viability of a fragmented population. Before this concept, genetics was a after thought!

Isolated populations also face fragmentation by inbreeding which is caused by human consumption, and results in a human responsibility instead of nature’s responsibility - a Minnesota story

Genetic drift is expected to decrease in commensals and increase in natives.

The most affected populations will be recently isolated, small populations of natives by genetic erosion

Genetic variation studies Allows for surveys of genetic and demographic information, and their

interactions, which may indicate the viability of a fragmented population. Before this concept, genetics was a after thought!

Isolated populations also face fragmentation by inbreeding which is caused by human consumption, and results in a human responsibility instead of nature’s responsibility - a Minnesota story

Genetic AssimilationGenetic Assimilation

Assimilated taxa may be able to enhance variability within a population, through interaction

Increases in variability do not necessarily mean that there will be increases in evolvability

Is it better to save a single “generic” taxon or several separate subspecies?

Which is the ‘best’ area for conserving species, small islands or a large body of land.

Assimilated taxa may be able to enhance variability within a population, through interaction

Increases in variability do not necessarily mean that there will be increases in evolvability

Is it better to save a single “generic” taxon or several separate subspecies?

Which is the ‘best’ area for conserving species, small islands or a large body of land.

Mutation RatesMutation Rates Mutations will rise, following:

Increases in background mutagen concentrations Increases in UV-B (due to ozone depletion) Increases in nuclear waste storage

Some say, even if mutations do not increase the viability of populations will become increasingly compromised. How?

Maybe we need to change our thinking about these problems!?!

Mutations will rise, following: Increases in background mutagen concentrations Increases in UV-B (due to ozone depletion) Increases in nuclear waste storage

Some say, even if mutations do not increase the viability of populations will become increasingly compromised. How?

Maybe we need to change our thinking about these problems!?!

A Short ReviewA Short Review

With a warming climate: Increases in more weed and pest species, and

disease outbreaks Changes in nutrient cycles due to

anthropogenic effects on essential microbes Where has all the energy gone?

Altered and increased migrations Increases in extinctions

With a warming climate: Increases in more weed and pest species, and

disease outbreaks Changes in nutrient cycles due to

anthropogenic effects on essential microbes Where has all the energy gone?

Altered and increased migrations Increases in extinctions

An open door policy isn’t always a good thing

An open door policy isn’t always a good thing

What the heck is he saying: If we leave our doors open to these changes, then

we will drastically change the evolution of our ecosystem.

Ecosystems will become more easily invaded and disturbed, and the species, genera, family, and phyla that are there will ultimately feel a magnified effect of these changes.

Evolution will still happen, but maybe in the wrong places

What the heck is he saying: If we leave our doors open to these changes, then

we will drastically change the evolution of our ecosystem.

Ecosystems will become more easily invaded and disturbed, and the species, genera, family, and phyla that are there will ultimately feel a magnified effect of these changes.

Evolution will still happen, but maybe in the wrong places

RecommendationsRecommendations Promote efforts to reduce human population

growth and resource use Promote the teaching of ecology and evolutionary

biology at all levels Promote efforts to complete a rapid inventory of

the planet’s biota, complete this in 20 years not 600

Promote research on landscape and seascape levels

Foster research on the predictive use of the fossil record “evolution is a hierarchical process that cannot

be predicted beyond some crude estimates

Promote efforts to reduce human population growth and resource use

Promote the teaching of ecology and evolutionary biology at all levels

Promote efforts to complete a rapid inventory of the planet’s biota, complete this in 20 years not 600

Promote research on landscape and seascape levels

Foster research on the predictive use of the fossil record “evolution is a hierarchical process that cannot

be predicted beyond some crude estimates

Recommendations (Cont.)Recommendations (Cont.) Promote research on the relationship between

genetic variability and population viability and ultimately evolvability

Promote research on genetic control of pests and their vectors to diminish their importance in disturbed ecosystems and improve the human condition

Promote the development of a global system of nature reserves, especially in the tropics, in conjunction with IUCN

Promote political changes in regulations of protected areas

Promote research on the relationship between genetic variability and population viability and ultimately evolvability

Promote research on genetic control of pests and their vectors to diminish their importance in disturbed ecosystems and improve the human condition

Promote the development of a global system of nature reserves, especially in the tropics, in conjunction with IUCN

Promote political changes in regulations of protected areas

The Last RecommendationThe Last Recommendation

Make a shift from saving things (cute cuddly creatures) to ultimately saving the process of evolution itself. This will allow us to cost-effectively conserve nature

Make a shift from saving things (cute cuddly creatures) to ultimately saving the process of evolution itself. This will allow us to cost-effectively conserve nature

In Preparation ThoughtsIn Preparation Thoughts Education, education, education; ultimately getting a

strong ‘majority’ of the public and politicians on board with the ideas and problems that surround these issues. Make it clear that changes are happening, and make people aware

that something needs to rapidly be done; send the message that we are not ‘crying wolf’

Increase omissions standards and eco-economical business practices; or punishment

Stop answering the ‘easy’ questions and start working on the ‘hard’ one.

Education, education, education; ultimately getting a strong ‘majority’ of the public and politicians on board with the ideas and problems that surround these issues. Make it clear that changes are happening, and make people aware

that something needs to rapidly be done; send the message that we are not ‘crying wolf’

Increase omissions standards and eco-economical business practices; or punishment

Stop answering the ‘easy’ questions and start working on the ‘hard’ one.

Why this is hardWhy this is hard“As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts

80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.” -2001

“Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant”

-November 2006

“As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.” -2001

“Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant”

-November 2006

A Different AnswerA Different Answer“Sooner or later disasters such as an asteroid collision or a nuclear war could wipe us all out, and we need to make the move to other planets"

-Stephen Hawkings

November 30th, 2006, B.B.C.

DiscussionDiscussion Where does ethics fit into this discussion or

should we apply ethical thinking to this situation?

What is the major take home message from these articles?

What are your views about the process of global warming and evolutionary changes as a result of it, and do you think that this is one argument that needs agreement among all entities of science, Business, English, Art, etc??

Where does ethics fit into this discussion or should we apply ethical thinking to this situation?

What is the major take home message from these articles?

What are your views about the process of global warming and evolutionary changes as a result of it, and do you think that this is one argument that needs agreement among all entities of science, Business, English, Art, etc??

Resources UsedResources Used

Woodruff, David S. 2001. Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution. “The Future of Evolution” Colloquium. March 16-20, 2000.

Parmesan, Camille. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. (36) 637-669.

Woodruff, David S. 2001. Declines of biomes and biotas and the future of evolution. “The Future of Evolution” Colloquium. March 16-20, 2000.

Parmesan, Camille. 2006. Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst. (36) 637-669.