DAILY AGRI COMMODITY REPORT

20 July 2016

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Market Views

2

MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL MONTH OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CHG VOL

TURMERIC

AUG 8183 8330 8120 8290 +1.49 -

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

8163

SUPP. 2

8036

PIVOT

8247

Turmeric short term

trend is bearish and

May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

8373

RES. 2

8457

CORIANDER

AUG 7894 7894 7750 7761 -1.0 -

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP.1

7709

SUPP. 2

7685

PIVOT

7802

Coriander short term

trend is bearish and May

continue in coming

days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

7853

RES. 2

7946

GUARGUM

OCT 7180 7420 6880 7420 +3.92 -

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

7060

SUPP. 2

6700

PIVOT

7240

Guargum short term

trend is bearish and

May continue in

coming days.RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

7600

RES. 2

7780

CASTORSEED

- - - - - - -

INTRADAY

LEVELS

SUPPORT SUPP. 1

-

SUPP. 2

-

PIVOT

--

RESISTAN

CE

RES. 1

-

RES. 2

-

Most Active Contract

3

NCDEX INDICES

Index ValuePre.

Close

%

Change

CASTORSEED - - -

CHANA 8788 8450 +4

CORIANDER 8100 8081 +0.24

GUARGUM 7420 7140 +3.92

JEERA 18935 18890 +0.24

MUSTARD

SEED4998 5016 -0.36

SOYABEAN 3749 3739 +0.27

TURMERIC 8532 8452 0.95

TOP GAINERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICECHANGE

CHANGE

%

CHANA 20-07-2016 9020.00 380.00 4.40%

GUAR GUM 20-07-2016 7010.00 190.00 2.79%

GUAR SEED 10 MT 20-07-2016 3629.00 47.00 1.31%

JEERA 20-07-2016 19100.00 210.00 1.11%

TOP LOSERS

SYMBOL EXPIRY DATECURRENT

PRICECHANGE

CHANGE

%

SOY BEAN 20-07-2016 3580.00 -40.00 -1.10%

WHEAT 19-08-2016 1742.00 -6.00 -0.34%

Commodities In News

4

ECONOMIC NEWS

It’s been three years since the National Food Security Act (NFSA), 2013,

which provides for foodgrains to be given at subsidised rates for a period of

three years, came into force. The Act suggested that the issue price be

‘suitably’ linked to the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) after three years, to

reduce the burden on the exchequer. Will the Modi government bite the

bullet and increase the issue price of these foodgrains?

Under the Act, two-thirds of the population were entitled to 5 kg of

foodgrains every month at subsidised prices: rice at 3 a kg, wheat at 2 a kg

and coarse grain at With the cost of procurement and distribution rising

every year, the subsidy is growing. With a total foodgrain offtake of 25

million tonnes under the NFSA, back-of-the envelope calculation suggests

that government’s finances took a hit of 5,000 crore in 2015-16.

ncreasing the issue price will of course improve the Centre’s finances by

reducing the subsidy component. However, the increase in the cost of

foodgrains supplied may face political pushback. “There is a strong lobby

for subsidising the poor, which will be difficult for any political party to

overcome,” says Prof A Vaidyanathan, who spent 10 years in the erstwhile

Planning Commission.The food subsidy bill, which also provides for

subsidies for pre-existing schemes such as the Antyodaya Anna Yojana,

has been climbing over the years; it stood at 1,34,919 crore in 2015-16.

This is largely due to the widening gap between the economic cost of

foodgrains and the price at which it is issued by the Food Corporation of

India to the various States. The economic cost, which includes the FCI’s

procurement and distribution costs, has inched up over the last four years –

by 2.4 annually for rice and 1.5 for wheat.The economic cost was ₹30.9 per

kg for rice and 22 for wheat for 2015-16, up by 5 per cent and 7.3 per cent

respectively over the previous year. However, the issue price continued to

remain low.

The procurement price — as measured by the MSP for rice and wheat —

has been moving up on an average by 4-5 per cent a year. For instance, the

MSP for wheat increased by 5.2 per cent for 2016-17 to 15.25 a kg as

against 14.7 a kg (up by 4.3 per cent) for paddy.

Chana prices spurted by 4% to hit upper limit at Rs 8,788 per quintal

in futures trade today as speculators created fresh positions, triggered

by paucity of stock at spot market amid pick up in demand. At the

National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in

August shot up by Rs 338 or 4% to Rs 8,788 per quintal with an open

interest of 1,680 lots. Analysts said speculative positions built up by

participants, driven by tight stocks positions in the physical market

against pick up in demand, mainly pushed up chana prices at futures

trade. They said, however, government's measures to curb rising prices

capped the rise.

Spot turmeric prices at Erode markets decreased on Monday as only

medium variety turmeric arrived for sale. “ Traders purchased only 60

per cent of the arrived stock of 3,000 bags. Most of the buyers procured

the turmeric to supply locally for the grinding units and masala firms.

Overall price was maintained at ₹9,000 and odd a quintal,” said RKV

Ravishankar, President, Erode Turmeric Merchants Association. At the

Erode Turmeric Merchants Association, the finger variety was sold at

₹7,790-9,099 a quintal and the root variety at ₹7,689-8,499. Out of

arrival of 1,012 bags, 651 were sold.

Refined soya oil were down by 0.27% to Rs 633.50 per 10 kg in

futures market today as traders reduced exposure, driven by adequate

stocks on higher supplies from producing belts at spot market. At the

National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for

delivery in August declined by Rs 1.70, or 0.27% to Rs 633.50 per 10

kg with an open interest of 1,08,990 lots Similarly, the oil for delivery

in July shed 65 paise, or 0.10% to Rs 628.50 per 10 kg in 4,720 lots.

Analysts said trimming of positions by participants, triggered by ample

stocks on higher supplies from producing regions in the physical

market against weak demand mainly weighed on refined soya oil prices

at futures trade.

Technical Outlook

5

BUY CORIANDER AUG ABOVE 7840 TARGET 7885 7985 SL

BELOW 7775

BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 7450 TARGET 7500 7570 SL

BELOW 7390

BUY TURMERIC AUG ABOVE 8270 TARGET 8314 8374 SL

BELOW 8210

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