Epic research special report of 04 dec 2015

DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015

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Global markets at a glance Asian equities traded lower on Friday, after Wall Street closed in the red as investors digested comments from the Fed and the ECB. Overnight, Fed chair said in a testimony before Congress that economic data since October backs the central bank's expectations of an improved job market. She added the bank will need to be cautious about raising rates form near zero, but added that - even after an initial increase - Fed funds rates would remain accommodative. On the data front, investors will focus on the US nonfarm payrolls report for November due later in the day. European shares saw their biggest fall in 4 months on Thursday, with a recent rally to 3-month highs sunk by a European Central Bank policy update which fell well short of high hopes for extreme dovishness. A cut in deposit rate was only in-line with expectations, sending stocks into negative territory, and falls accelerated in afternoon trade after ECB President Mario Draghi's news conference. A 10 (basis point) cut in the deposit rate initially disappointed markets set up to expect fireworks from the ECB, which was quickly followed by another damp squib of a mere ex-tension of the current ECB QE program. The FTSEurofirst 300 fell 3.3% to 1,462.76pts, its biggest fall since August 24 and over 4% down from a three month high touched earlier in the session, shortly before the initial policy announcement. The Euro STOXX 50 was down 3.6%, with every stock in negative territory. DAX, which has many exporters, fell 3.6%, suffering from a rally in the euro. Sec-tors with lots of exposure to exports also fell, with the autos and parts sector also down 3.6%. Non-euro zone in-dexes such as Britain's FTSE 100 and Switzerland's SMI out-performed, but were still down 2.3% and 1.8% respectively. Previous day Roundup The market ended lower as the Sensex is down 231.23 points or 0.9 percent at 25886.62. The Nifty slips 67.20 points or 0.8 percent at 7864.15. About 1240 shares have advanced, 1547 shares declined, and 137 shares are un-changed. Index stats The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [down 177.03pts], Capital Goods [down 85.37pts], PSU [down 75.45pts], FMCG [down 119.04Pts], Realty [up 5.00Pts], Power [down 12.87pts], Auto [down 156.69Pts], Healthcare [down 179.24Pts], IT [down 57.07pts], Metals [down 99.85Pts], TECK [down 30.95pts], Oil& Gas [down 59.62pts].

World Indices

Index Value % Change

D J l 17477.67 -1.42

S&P 500 2049.62 -1.44

NASDAQ 5037.53 -1.67

FTSE 100 6275.00 -2.27

Nikkei 225 19556.50 -1.92

Hong Kong 22176.90 -1.07

Top Gainers

Company CMP Change % Chg

AXISBANK 462.80 3.30 0.72

TECHM 542.90 2.90 0.54

NTPC 133.65 0.55 0.41

INDUSINDBK 945.00 2.40 0.25

MARUTI 4,630.20 11.40 0.25

Top Losers


BHEL 168.10 5.00 -2.89

ONGC 229.30 6.50 -2.76

LUPIN 1,824.80 46.00 -2.46

PNB 136.25 3.35 -2.40

VEDL 92.05 2.20 -2.33

Stocks at 52 Week’s HIGH

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

EDL 79.50 0.75 0.95

BALPHARMA 143.25 9.25 6.90

ESTER 99.50 1.15 1.17

GEECEE 136.00 2.40 1.80

GMBREW 806.10 19.65 2.50

Indian Indices


NIFTY 7864.15 -67.20 -0.85

SENSEX 25886.62 -231.23 -0.89

Stocks at 52 Week’s LOW

Symbol Prev. Close Change %Chg

ADANIPORTS 256.85 -4.55 -1.74

BHEL 168.10 -5.00 -2.89

FLEXITUFF 208.90 -0.45 -0.21

RALLIS 185.00 -0.25 -0.13

TBZ 101.40 -2.10 -2.03

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DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015


STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH] 3. AJMERA [CASH]

After given breakout AJMERA realty facing profit booking on every rise but this week it made low of 158.50 & at last session it break this level but finished at 160.85 with long bearish candle which has black crow cover so we advise to sell it below 157.50 for target of 155 152 147 use stop loss of 160 MACRO NEWS CEA report on GST rate may be submitted on Friday Just Dial tanks 6% ahead of buyback; Goldman Sachs

downgrades Chennai rains to hit Dec output of auto cos: P Lilladher Credit Suisse raises target, EPS on Torrent Pharma Bhushan Steel up 18%, may get big amount through as-

set sale Services growth at 5-month low in Nov as confidence

slumps HNIs want higher gold bond limit Dena Bank Board Approves To Raise Equity Capital By

Diluting Govt Stake Up To 52% Ashok Leyland, Tata Motors, Eicher Motors in focus -

Govt to ban CVs that are older than 15yrs from April 1st DABUR- Have Lost Some Part Of Juice Sale In October &

November Due To Nepal Issue Bond yield may touch 7.60% over next month: Nomura

India See FY16 GDP growth at 7.5%, FY17 at 8%: Barclays Credit Suisse raises target, EPS on Torrent Pharma OPEC rift is prelude to Iran market return Gold falls below Rs 25K, crashes to 3-1/2 month low Aviation ministry caps airfares of special fights at Rs

1,000

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE] 1. ADANI PORTS [FUTURE]

ADANIPORTS Future this week given breakdown of inverted flag pattern & last session it break support pole and finished around 1.50% loss with bearish inverted hammer since here open interest rose around 7% so sell it below 258.50 for tar-get of 256 253 250 use stop loss of 261.50.

2. ARVIND [FUTURE]

ARVIND future create double top pattern on EOD chart which breakdown is below 310 at last session it break this level but it finished near 309.80 with bearish candle since RSI also given negative cross over so we advise to sell it below 308 for target of 306 303 300 use stop loss of 311.


DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015


FUTURE & OPTION

MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY CE 8,000 78.90 1,74,248 52,70,925

NIFTY CE 8,200 26.60 1,46,869 63,70,350

BANKNIFTY CE 18,000 89.00 31,976 4,75,350

RCOM CE 85 4.20 3,052 62,32,000

RELIANCE CE 1,000 14.60 2,602 9,72,500

LT CE 1,400 20.35 2,014 8,49,000

SBIN CE 250 4.25 1,887 37,70,000

TATASTEEL CE 240 9.00 1,620 9,96,000

MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION

Symbol Op-

tion

Type

Strike

Price

LTP Traded

Volume

(Contracts)

Open

Interest

NIFTY PE 7,800 90.15 1,17,621 31,78,775

NIFTY PE 7,900 131.50 1,13,107 30,21,850

BANKNIFTY PE 17,000 305.00 24,989 6,80,520

RCOM PE 80 2.75 1,193 20,08,000

TATASTEEL PE 240 8.45 1,068 6,74,000

RELIANCE PE 980 22.45 1,016 2,32,000

SBIN PE 240 6.25 802 19,14,000

BHEL PE 170 6.75 741 7,88,000

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS

BUY OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY SELL

No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores No. of

Contracts Amount in

Crores NET AMOUNT

INDEX FUTURES 15619 893.323 24243 1402.28 271515 15729.9 -508.958

INDEX OPTIONS 234404 13730.8 219554 12914.7 1091949 63860 816.1648

STOCK FUTURES 60298 3068.41 64220 3290.77 987109 49582.5 -222.358

STOCK OPTIONS 24314 1251.91 24186 1232.86 41894 2084.79 19.0533

TOTAL 103.90

STOCKS IN NEWS

Tata Motors JLR in race to buy UK Grand Prix circuit, Silverstone

JP Associates to seek nod to raise `5000 cr via Non Covertible Debentures

Jain Irrigation Shareholders Approve Raising `290 Cr To Issue Up To 1.4 Cr Warrants Worth `112.5 Cr To Pro-moter JAF Products

Tree House Education 10.77% Equity Exchanged Hands in 4 block deals

Amtek Auto up 15%, asset sale gathers steam; 2 cos in race

NIFTY FUTURE

Nifty in last trading session saw selling pressure in last trading hours and remained range bound to bearish. For now Nifty seems to trade between 7950-7850 (support and resistance respectively). So for tomorrow we advise you to buy Nifty Future around 7850-7820 for the targets of 7920 and 8030 with strict stop loss of 7750.

INDICES R2 R1 PIVOT S1 S2

NIFTY 8,010.00 7,970.00 7,940.00 7,900.00 7,870.00

BANK NIFTY 17,590.00 17,404.00 17,284.00 17,098.00 16,978.00


DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015


RECOMMENDATIONS

GOLD

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY GOLD FEB ABOVE 25300 TGTS 25380,25480 SL BE-

LOW 25200

SELL GOLD FEB BELOW 25100 TGTS 25020,24930 SL

ABOVE 25200

SILVER

TRADING STRATEGY:

BUY SILVER MAR ABOVE 34300 TGTS 34500,35800 SL BE-

LOW 34000

SELL SILVER MAR BELOW 34100 TGTS 33900,33600 SL

ABOVE 34400

COMMODITY ROUNDUP Tracking a weak overseas trend, gold prices tumbled by Rs 200 to Rs 25,350, extending its slide for the second straight day at the bullion market today. Silver too remained under selling pressure and dropped by 450 to trade below the 34,000-mark at Rs 33,700 per kg. Traders said sentiment remained bearish on a weak global trend where gold sank to the lowest level in over five years after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the US economy looks strong enough for aninterest rate hike this month. This eroded demand for the precious metal, keeping pres-sure on the precious metals here. Globally, gold lost 0.7% to $1,046.44 an ounce, the lowest since February 2010 and silver fell 1.2% to $13.84 an ounce, the lowest price since August 2009 in Singapore, while in London, the precious metal was down 0.39% at $1,049.10 an ounce. Besides, muted demand from jewellers and retailers at domestic spot market on expectations further drop in prices in com-ing days dampened the sentiment. Tracking gold, silver ready moved down by Rs 450 to Rs 33,700 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 335 to Rs 33,240 per kg. Silver coins also plummeted by Rs 1,000 to Rs 47,000 for buying and Rs 48,000 for selling of 100 pieces. Copper prices fell to two-week lows on Thursday, as ongo-ing strength in the U.S. dollar weighed on the red metal. Dollar-priced commodities become more expensive to in-vestors holding other currencies when the greenback gains. March delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mer-cantile Exchange dipped 1.6 cents, or 0.77%, to trade at $2.029 a pound during morning hours in London. It earlier fell to $2.028, the lowest since November 24. MCX Copper was trading at Rs 304.65 per kg, up 0.54%. The prices tested a high of Rs 306.95 per kg and a low of Rs 304 per kg. On Wednesday, copper tumbled 3.8 cents, or 1.86%, as a combination of a stronger dollar and persistent worries over future demand prospects from top consumer China weighed. Copper is down almost 35% since May amid ex-pectations of higher interest rates in the U.S. and slower global economic growth, especially in China. The Asian nation is the world's largest copper consumer, accounting for nearly 45% of world consumption. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said that the central bank was still on track to hike rates this month, citing continued improvement in the labor market and confidence that inflation will move back to our 2% objective over the medium term.


DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015


NCDEX

NCDEX ROUNDUP Rising for the third straight day, sugar prices added another 0.45% to Rs 2,912 per quintal in futures trading today as speculators engaged in enlarging their positions, driven by surging demand in the spot market. At NCDEX sugar for de-livery in far-month March next year gained Rs 13, or 0.45% to Rs 2,912 per quintal with an open interest of 79,050 lots. In a similar fashion, the sweetener for delivery in Dec con-tracts traded higher by Rs 7, or 0.25% to Rs 2,758 per quin-tal in 52,130 lots. Participants increasing their positions on the back of rising demand from retailers and bulk consum-ers supported by ongoing wedding season mainly kept sugar prices higher at futures trade. Cardamom prices fell by 1.02% to Rs 731.40 per kg in fu-tures market as traders trimmed positions, taking weak cues from spot market on subdued demand. Besides, ade-quate stocks position on higher supplies from producing areas put pressure on cardamom prices. At MCX cardamom for delivery in far-month January moved down by Rs 7.50, or 1.02% to Rs 731.40 per kg in a business turnover of 108 lots. On similar lines, the spice for delivery in Dec traded lower by Rs 3.70, or 0.55% to Rs 670.00 per kg in 49 lots. Offloading of positions by participants, driven by low de-mand in the spot market against ample stocks position, mainly led to the decline in cardamom prices. Crude oil prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar eased slightly, but concerns about oversupply remained front of mind with OPEC expected to keep its output target unchanged at a policy meeting on Friday. US crude was trading up 34 cents at $41.99 a barrel at 0726 GMT, but was still down more than 10% since the start of November. Internationally traded Brent was also up 34 cents at $44.95 a barrel.

NCDEX INDICES

Index Value % Change

CAETOR SEED 3856 +0.18

CHANA 5110 -0.39

CORIANDER 10249 +0.81

COTTON SEED 1746 +0.11

GUAR SEED 3383 +0.36

JEERA 15825 +0.03

MUSTARDSEED 4725 -0.82

REF. SOY OIL 625 +0.21

TURMERIC 2741 -0.36

WHEAT 9248 -1.24

RECOMMENDATIONS

DHANIYA

BUY CORIANDER DEC ABOVE 10280 TARGET 10325 10475

SL BELOW 10215

SELL CORIANDER DEC BELOW 10200 TARGET 10155 10005

SL ABOVE 10265

GUARSGUM

SELL GUARGUM DEC BELOW 6470 TARGET 6420 6350 SL

ABOVE 6530

SELL GUARGUM DEC BELOW 6470 TARGET 6420 6350 SL

ABOVE 6530


DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015


RBI Reference Rate

Currency Rate Currency Rate

Rupee- $ 66.7450 Yen-100 54.0800

Euro 70.6696 GBP 99.6102

CURRENCY

USD/INR

BUY USD/INR DEC ABOVE 66.91 TARGET 67.04 67.19 SL BE-

LOW 66.71

SELL USD/INR DEC BELOW 66.85 TARGET 66.72 66.57 SL

ABOVE 67.05

EUR/INR

BUY EUR/INR DEC ABOVE 70.8 TARGET 70.95 71.15 SL BE-

LOW 70.6

SELL EUR/INR DEC BELOW 70.52 TARGET 70.37 70.17 SL

ABOVE 70.72

CURRENCY MARKET UPDATES:

The US dollar dropped down sharply against a basket of

currencies on Thursday, after the European Central Bank

cut its deposit rate, but left the main refinancing rate

unchanged after its monetary policy meeting. The euro

spiked against the other major currencies. EUR/USD

jumped 0.94% to 1.0713 after falling to 1.0577 earlier,

not far from Wednesday's seven-and-a-half month

trough of 1.0549.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which measures the green-

back's strength against a trade-weighted basket of six

major currencies, fell to 98.75, backing off Wednesday's

seven-and-a-half month peaks of 100.54. The ECB's gov-

erning council lowered the deposit facility rate to -0.3%

from -0.20%, in line with market expectations. The main

refinancing rate was left unchanged at a record-low

0.05%, in line with market expectations. The central

bank also held its marginal lending rate, the rate

charged to banks when they borrow from the ECB, at

0.30%.

The ECB also said it was to announce “further policy

measures” at its post policy meeting press conference.

Weak euro zone inflation data on Wednesday hardened

expectations that the ECB could announce fresh meas-

ures to bolster price growth. At its October meeting ECB

head Mario Draghi indicated that more stimulus was a

possibility.

The single currency also jumped higher against the yen

and the pound, with EUR/JPY surging 1.01% to 132.12

and EUR/GBP rallying 0.75% to 0.7149.

Government bond prices are likely to react to the latest

developments in the global bond markets after the ECB

meeting. Sentiment of bond market participants may

get a bit subdued despite the RBI's OMO purchase an-

nouncement.


DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015


Date Commodity/ Currency

Pairs Contract Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

01/12/15 NCDEX DHANIYA DEC. BUY 10350 10395-10545 10285 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 NCDEX DHANIYA DEC. SELL 10085 10040-9890 10150 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 NCDEX GUARGUM DEC. BUY 6750 6800-6870 6690 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 NCDEX GUARGUM DEC. SELL 6520 6470-6400 6580 BOOKED PROFIT

01/12/15 MCX GOLD FEB. BUY 25000 25080-25180 24900 BOOKED FULL PROFIT

01/12/15 MCX GOLD FEB. SELL 24800 24720-24620 24890 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 MCX SILVER MAR. BUY 33400 33700-34000 33100 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 MCX SILVER MAR. SELL 33100 32900-33600 33400 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 USD/INR DEC. BUY 66.96 67.09-67.24 66.76 NO PROFIT NO LOSS

01/12/15 USD/INR DEC. SELL 66.85 66.72-66.57 67.05 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 EUR/INR DEC. BUY 70.93 71.08-7128 70.73 SL TRIGGERED

01/12/15 EUR/INR DEC. SELL 70.80 70.65-70.45 71.00 BOOKED PROFIT

Date Scrip

CASH/

FUTURE/

OPTION

Strategy Entry Level Target Stop Loss Remark

01/12/15 NIFTY FUTURE BUY 7940-7960 8030-8150 7870 CALL OPEN

01/12/15 BEL FUTURE SELL 1215 1201-1180 1231 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 LUPIN FUTURE BUY 1886 1896-1910 1874 NOT EXECUTED

01/12/15 EDL CASH BUY 83.00 85-87 81 NOT EXECUTED



27/11/15 NIFTY FUTURE SELL 7920 7850-7750 8010 CALL OPEN


DAILY REPORT

04th

NOV. 2015


NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

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Disclaimer

TIME REPORT PERIOD ACTUAL CONSENSUS

FORECAST PREVIOUS

MONDAY, NOV. 30

NONE SCHEDULED

TUESDAY, DEC. 01

10 AM ISM NOV. 50.6% 50.1%

10 AM CONSTRUCTION SPENDING OCT. 0.4% 0.6%

TBA MOTOR VEHICLE SALES NOV. 17.9 MLN 18.1 MLN

WEDNESDAY, DEC. 02

8:30 AM PRODUCTIVITY Q3 2.0% 1.6%

8:30 AM UNIT LABOR COSTS Q3 1.6% 1.4%

THURSDAY, DEC. 03

8:30 AM WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS NOV. 28 N/A N/A

10 AM ISM NONMANUFACTURING NOV. 61.0% 59.1%

10 AM FACTORY ORDERS OCT. 1.6% 1.4%

FRIDAY, DEC. 04

8:30 AM NONFARM PAYROLLS NOV. 205,000 271,000

8:30 AM UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOV. 5.0% 5.0%

8:30 AM AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS NOV. 0.2% 0.4%

8:30 AM TRADE DEFICIT OCT. -$42.8 BLN -$40.8 BLN


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Epic research special report of 04 dec 2015