project project

20202020

Prasanto K Roy

Prasanto K Roy

Oct 2013 | pkr@pkr.in | @prasanto

Oct 2013 | pkr@pkr.in | @prasantoA strategic direction for Indian industry

A strategic direction for Indian industry

India’s first TERI GRIHA green home

The

Cri

sis

The

Cri

sis

11/3/11

6/8/45

The

Cri

sis

The

Cri

sis

The Rupee crashes.Everything gets expensive.

We import $150 billion of OIL!!

We import $75 billion more than we export.

2013

The

Gap

The

Gap

$$7575BBprojected FY14

projected FY14 Current Account Deficit

Current Account Deficit

$$140140BBOil Import Bill

Oil Import Bill FY12 (31% of

FY12 (31% of India’s imports)

India’s imports)

The

Gap

The

Gap

25% 2003-04

53% 2031-32% of commercial energy use

based on IMPORTS (Planning Commission)H

igh

Hig

h E

nerg

yE

nerg

y

Hig

h H

igh E

nerg

yE

nerg

y 7070%%

India’s energy generation is

India’s energy generation is

from fossil fuels

from fossil fuels4040% Coal% Coal2424% Crude

% Crude66% natural Gas

% natural GasInternational Energy Agency

International Energy Agency

$$5858 bn bnLosses est. from India’s

Losses est. from India’s10% power deficit

10% power deficit

Hig

h H

igh E

nerg

yE

nerg

y

1515%%2020 renewable-energy

2020 renewable-energytarget NAPCC 2008

target NAPCC 2008 Hig

h H

igh E

nerg

yE

nerg

y

Ind

ustr

ial

Ind

ustr

ial

Revo

lutio

nsRe

volu

tions

Convergence of Energy +

Convergence of Energy +

Communication Tech

Communication Tech1.1. Coal/steam engine

Coal/steam engine + press+ press2.2. IC engine + telephony

IC engine + telephony

Centralized power

Centralized power3.3. Internet +

Internet + Distributed power

Distributed power FICCI FICCI MegaTrends 2020 project | Jeremy Rifkin

MegaTrends 2020 project | Jeremy Rifkin

3rd

3rd

Ind

ustr

ial

Ind

ustr

ial

Revo

lutio

nRe

volu

tion Five pillars

Five pillars1.1.RERE2.2.Distributed power

Distributed power3.3.H - and other storage

H - and other storage4.4.Intergrids

Intergrids5.5.EV – buy and sell power

EV – buy and sell power

3rd

3rd

Ind

ustr

ial

Ind

ustr

ial

Revo

lutio

nRe

volu

tion

Make or break

Make or break for India for India1.1.Energy (in)security

Energy (in)security2.2.Economics of industry

Economics of industry3.3.Treat/opportunity

Treat/opportunity4.4.Services: Big shift

Services: Big shift5.5.Automotive

Automotive

The

Futu

re o

f

The

Futu

re o

f W

OR

KW

OR

K

‘‘Rising’ professions,

Rising’ professions,rising productivity

rising productivityheading for a crash

heading for a crash- Software

Software- BPOBPO- Data entry

Data entry- Medical transcription

Medical transcription- Gem polishing

Gem polishing

The

Futu

re o

f

The

Futu

re o

f W

OR

KW

OR

K

33 rdrd Industrial Revolution

Industrial Revolution- Disruptive: millions lose

Disruptive: millions lose

present jobs, but many

present jobs, but many

other jobs created. Huge

other jobs created. Huge

skill gapsskill gaps- Shift up the value chain:

Shift up the value chain:

toward IPtoward IP

Ener

gyEn

ergy It’s not ‘

It’s not ‘climate change

climate change’’

Self-sufficiency

Self-sufficiency key to India’s future

key to India’s future Mega-disruptive

Mega-disruptive Huge

Huge opportunity.opportunity.

FIC

CI

FIC

CI

Proj

ect 2

020

Proj

ect 2

020 ‘‘20/20’ : Industry to

20/20’ : Industry to generate 20% energy RE

generate 20% energy RE An HR strategy based on

An HR strategy based on

tech projections

tech projections A division like CII-ITC

A division like CII-ITC Center, but strategic (vs

Center, but strategic (vs

tactical)tactical)

project project

20202020

Prasanto K Roy

Prasanto K Roy