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5 Ways to Trade Currencies
Kathy Lien Director of Currency Research
DISCLAIMER: GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. [In the United Kingdom,] GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at _www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. © 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved.
DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
Disclaimer
Brain Teasers
3 Trading Perspectives
5 Different Ways to Trade Currencies
What Type of Trader Are You?
Bonus: My Favorite Trading Strategy
Agenda
Exercise Your Brain
Brain Teasers
OTTFFSS _?
Brain Teasers
3 Trading Perspectives
Fundamental Traders
Technical Traders
Realistic Traders
3 Trading Perspectives
1. Macro
2. Micro
3. Monetary Policy
3 Ms of Trading
5 Ways to Trade
1. Sticking with the Trend
2. Going for Yield
3. Anticipating News
4. Following the Flow
5. Fading Sentiment
5 Ways to Trade
EUR/USD
Source: DealBook 360
Sticking with the Trend
USD/JPY
Source: DealBook 360
Sticking with the Trend
Sticking with the Trend
How to Trade the Bollinger Bands
1. The First Break
2. Retrace
EUR/USD
Source: DealBook 360
The First Break
AUD/JPY
Source: DealBook 360
The First Break
GBP/USD
Source: DealBook 360
Retrace
USD/CHF
Source: DealBook 360
Retrace
Sticking with the Trend
Increase Your Chance of Success By Keeping an Eye on Data
Set it and Forget it
Trade Currencies Like Stocks
Interest Rates Matter
Popularity of the Carry Trade
Going for Yield
The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.
Source: DealBook 360
AUD/USD +45% then -35%
Going for Yield
Source: DealBook 360
EUR/JPY +30% the -33%
Going for Yield
Going for Yield
How Can you Determine Where Interest Rates Are Headed?
Put Yourself Into the Shoes of the Central Banker
Be Ahead of the Game
Short Term Trades – Right or Out
Tight Stop, Instant Gratification
Only Problem: Getting the Economic Prediction Right
Anticipating News
Friday January 23, 2009
UK GDP (Q4)
4:30 AM ET
Expectations: -1.2% (QoQ) / -1.4% (YoY)
Previous: -0.6% (QoQ) / 0.3% (YoY)
Our Call: Weaker GDP
Anticipating News
Source: DealBook 360
GDP -1.5% QoQ -1.8% YoY
Canadian Retail Sales
What are the Clues?
Anticipating News
Retail Sales + Trade Balance = GDP
Anticipating News
Source: Bloomberg
January 19, 2009
New Zealand Consumer Prices (QoQ)
4:45 PM ET
Expectations: -0.4% QoQ, 3.5% YoY
Previous: 1.5% QoQ , 5.1% YoY
Our Call: Weaker CPI
Anticipating News
Source: DealBook 360
NZD CPI -0.5% QoQ 3.4% YoY
New Zealand CPI
Anticipating News
What are the Clues?
German Retail Sales and Factory Orders Were Weak
News Moves Markets
No Guessing
Lasting Impact
Following the Flow
Source: DealBook 360
UK GDP Fall More than Expected
0
70 -80 Pips
UK GDP
Source: DealBook 360
NZD CPI Weaker than Expected
70 Pips
New Zealand CPI
Picking Tops and Bottoms is Tempting, But Tough!
Source: DealBook 360
-35%
-7500 Pips
In 4 months
Fading Market Sentiment
Source: DealBook 360
Magazine Covers
Magazine Covers
Trader
What Kind of Trader Are You?
What kind of Trader are You?
1. Short Term vs. Long Term
2. High Probability, High Profit
3. News, Charts or Both
4. Majors or Crosses
Bonus!
Trading Strategy: Extension Fade
Extension Fade
Extension Fade
Extension Fade
Extension Fade
Trading Rules
1. Look for 7 consecutive days of weakness, where the close of each day is lower than the open.
2. Buy at 5pm ET, which is when the next trading candle begins
3. Place stop 30 pips below the entry price
4. Close half of the position when it moves by 2 times the amount risked. Move the stop on the remaining half to your initial entry.
5. Close remaining position when price has moved by 4 times the amount risked or 120 pips.
The views of the author are not necessarily those of GFT, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate.
Source: DealBook 360
Extension Fade
Source: DealBook 360
Extension Fade
Extension Fade
Does the Strategy Work for Other Currency Pairs?
Source: DealBook 360
USD/CAD Example
Extension Fade
Can the First Target be Altered?
Extension Fade
What Happens if the Move Continues for More than 7 Days?
Extension Fade
Source: DealBook 360
GBP/USD Example
Extension Fade
Can You Trade a 6 Day Fade?
Questions?
Agenda
Join Us!
Premium PresentationFeb 23, 4:30pm – 6:00pm
Strategies to EffectivelyAnticipate and React to
Currency News
*Open to new and existing GFT Clients Limited seating. Inquire at GFT
Booth.
Disclaimer
DISCLAIMER: GFT refers to Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. and all of its divisions, branches and subsidiaries, including Global Forex Trading, GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. and GFT Global Markets UK Limited. [In the United Kingdom,] GFT Global Markets UK Limited is authorized and regulated by the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority. Each investment product is offered only to and from jurisdictions where solicitation and sale are lawful. Trading of foreign exchange contracts, contracts for differences, derivatives and other investment products which are leveraged, can carry a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. It is possible to lose more than the initial investment. In Australia, GFT means Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. ARBN 103 508 461, AFS License 226625. A Product Disclosure Statement (PDS) is available at _www.gft.com.au. You should read and consider the PDS before making any decision to deal in GFT products. This [advertisement] is published by GFT Global Markets Asia Pte. Ltd. (Company Registration Number 200717665N) in Singapore for informational purposes only and is not an offer or a solicitation to deal in any investment product or to enter into any legal relations, nor an advice or a recommendation with respect to such investment product. © 2009 Global Futures & Forex, Ltd. All rights reserved.
DISCLAIMER: This presentation and the information provided here should not be relied upon as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this presentation for your general information. This presentation and its information does not take into account any particular individual’s investment objectives, financial situation, or needs. All investors should obtain advice based on their unique situation before making any investment decision based upon this forum or any information contained within. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading, Boris Schlossberg, and Kathy Lien do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax or other professional advice. If such advice is sought, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
CD08BKU.002.021809