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A3, PDCA and the Build Measure Learn loop (to name a few loops) are all informed by experimentation. Kanban embraces the scientific method explicitly; "Improve Collaboratively (using models & the scientific method)" and Lean implementations can be more effectively supported by a sound understanding of the philosophy of science and proper experimental design. This presentation will briefly explore the basics of the scientific method, including deductive, inductive and abductive logic, probability, parsimony, and hypothesis testing. Through a series of group exercises, the audience will grapple with the concepts and return home ready to create an execute their first scientific experiment.
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LEARN LIKE A SCIENTIST:
YOUR FIRST EXPERIMENT
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Joshua (Jabe) Bloom
&CTO:
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Qualities and Assumptions of
Science
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Demarcation
Pseudoscience Scientism
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If It Is Scientific, You Can Show Me How You Did It and We Can See
If I can Repeat It.
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Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the facts. !Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points
of view. !Arguments from authority carry little weight (in science there are no "authorities"). !
Spin more than one hypothesis - don't simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy. !
Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it's yours. !Quantify, wherever possible. !
If there is a chain of argument every link in the chain must work. !Occam's razor - if there are two hypotheses that explain the data equally well choose
the simpler. !Ask whether the hypothesis can, at least in principle, be falsified (shown to be false by
some unambiguous test). In other words, it is testable? Can others duplicate the experiment and get the same result?
Baloney Detection Kit
http://jabe.co/BaloneyKitCarl Sagan
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Criteria of
Truth
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Lousy Criteria
Authority Custom
Emotions Naïve Realism
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The truths science attempts to reveal about atoms and the solar system and even
about microbes and bacteria would still be true even if human beings had
never existed !-Anthony O'Hear
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Veritas est adaequatio rei et intellectus
A judgment is said to be true when it conforms to the external reality
!
-Thomas Aquinas
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[Abduction] goes upon the hope that there is sufficient affinity between the reasoner's mind and nature's to render
guessing not altogether hopeless, provided each guess is checked by
comparison with observation... The effort should therefore be to make each
hypothesis... as near an even bet as possible.
-Charles Peirce
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That's the whole point to the Scientific Method. It can never actually verify truth, but it can
show what is not true. !
-Jim Haines
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that which does not work is not true
!
-William Ernest Hocking
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Fallibility
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Pieces of behaviour, beliefs, arguments, policies, and other
exercises of the human mind may all be described as rational. To accept something as rational is to accept it as making sense, as appropriate, or
required, or in accordance with some acknowledged goal, such as aiming
at truth or aiming at the good -Blackburn
Rationality
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Abductionnot just for
Aliens
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ABDUCE
DEDUCE
INDUCE
Predictive
Probable
Plausible
The Way
Computers "Think"
The Way
Humans Think
Binary
Probability
Analogue
Justifiable
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Parsimony
Occam’s Razor
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Inspiration Exploration
Testing Collaboration Exploitation
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Inspiration
New Technology, New Problems, Personal Practice, Managed
Serendipity !
Surprise
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ExplorationObservations,
Research, Questioning, Collaboration
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Testing
Hypothesis Generation, Defining
Expectation, Experimentation
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Collaboration
Explanation, Conversation, Interpretation,
Challenging, Peer Reviewing, Repeating/
Validating
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Exploitation
$$, Solve Problems, Make the World Better,
Delight Customers
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Scientific examination arises out of, and is
dependent upon, a previous, or an ontologically prior
praxis context. -Ihde
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Exploitation
Collaboration
Testing
Exploration
Inspiration
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What Do Knowledge Workers
Use Science For?
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Scientific Realism vs
Instrumentalism
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Pragmatic Economic
Instrumentalist
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Guess -> Knowledge !
Knowledge to Profit !
Canaries
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Improve collaboratively, evolve experimentally, using
models and the scientific method
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The link between objective truth and inter-subjective agreement is so strong that the former is difficult to defend when the latter
fails. !-Hugh G. Gauch, Jr
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Your First Experiments
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SAFETY RULES
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Safe-To-Fail
First Don’t Do (too much) Harm
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Turn Commitments into Options
(bring a rope)
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There is no surer way to screw up an experiment
than to be certain of its outcome.
!
-Stuart Firestein
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ABDUCE
DEDUCE
INDUCE
Experiences Hypothesises
ExpectedOutcomes
If Coherent
If Expected Outcomes Match Reality
EffectiveMatch
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Build
Learn Measure
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Build
Learn Measure
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LeanUX New Product Dev
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Problem Hypothesis
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Problem Hypothesis
CustomerHypothesis
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Problem Hypothesis
CustomerHypothesis
SolutionHypothesis
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Problem Hypothesis
CustomerHypothesis
SolutionHypothesis
WHY?
Assumptions Assumptions
Assumptions
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Which of these Assumptions MUST be True for my model to
be coherent?
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How can I invalidate these
assumptions?
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Write Down What You Think Will Happen BEFORE You DO It.
!
Show it to your peers. !
Honestly PUBLICLY Examine Your Results
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Joshua (Jabe) Bloom CTO : The Library Corporation
& TLC Labs http://tlclabs.co
blog http://blog.jabebloom.com !!
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