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Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland Living Longer – Working Longer Older Workers in Ireland - Myths and Realities Belfast, 10 Nov 2010 Paul McGill, Strategic Research Officer, CARDI

Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

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Page 1: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland

Living Longer – Working Longer

Older Workers in Ireland - Myths and Realities

Belfast, 10 Nov 2010

Paul McGill, Strategic Research Officer, CARDI

Page 2: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Recent population change

1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006-080

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

All Ireland older population

85+ 80-8475-7970-7465-69

2

Page 3: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Projected population change

3

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 20410

50100150200250300350400450500

NI projected rise in older population 2006-2041 (thousands)

85+75-8465-74

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 20410

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

RoI projected rise in older population 2006-2041 (thousands)

85+75-8465-74

Page 4: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Life expectancy at 65

1925-27 1950-52 1960-62 1970-72 1985-87 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-0710

12

14

16

18

20

Figure 2.6: All-Ireland life expectancy at age 65

RoI maleNI maleRoI femaleNI female

Time periods

Num

ber

of

years

expecte

d

4

Page 5: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Who’s in and out of work?5

Page 6: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

RoI healthy life years at 656

Page 7: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

A close-up7

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

4.7

4.6

5.1

5.4

5.8

7.7

7.8

7.6

7.5

6.6

7.3

7.8

8.4

8.8

10

10.1

9.8

9.7

Unhealthy years at 65, detail

FemaleMale

Page 8: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Healthy life in Northern Ireland

8

Page 9: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

UK pension rates 2010

Single Couple

Pension (£) 97.65 (132.60) 156.15 (202.40)

Median wage 09 £356.70 Pension as % wage 27.4 (37.2) 43.8

(56.7)60% median wage £214.02Gap 60% (£) 116.37 (81.42) 57.87

(11.62)RoI full contributory pension is €230.30(Figures in brackets include full pension credit) See

http://www.cardi.ie/userfiles/CARDI%20Pension%20Policy%20Briefing.pdf

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Page 10: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Poverty10

2003 2004 2005 2006 200710

15

20

25

30

35

Fig 3.8: All Ireland risk of poverty of older people (%) (60% median)

RoINI BHC

Page 11: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

RoI and UK in EU league11

Hunga

ry

Luxe

mbo

urg

Czech

Rep

ublic

Nethe

rland

s

Slov

ak R

epub

lic

Fran

ce

Pola

nd

Austri

a

Germ

any

Swed

en

Denm

ark

Belgi

um Italy

Repub

lic o

f Ire

land

Slov

enia

Greec

e

Malta

Portu

gal

Finla

nd

Roman

ia

Spai

n

Lithu

ania

Unite

d Kin

gdom

Bulga

ria

Esto

nia

Cypru

s

Latv

ia

4 57

10 10 11 1215 15 16

1821 21 21 21 22 22 22 23

2628 29 30

34

39

4951

EU risk of poverty rates 65+ in 2008

Page 12: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Wages and productivity by age

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Page 13: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Older people and work13

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

All Ireland numbers in work by age group (2nd Q) 000s

55 -5960 - 6465+

Page 14: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Recession impact north and south

14

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

RoI numbers in work by age group, 2nd Q (1998=100)

All <55Age 55-59All 60+

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

NI numbers in work by age group, 2nd Q (1998=100)

All <5555-59All 60+

Page 15: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Recession, RoI employment15

15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Total

-51.9

-39.4

-13.2

-7.7

-2.9-0.6

-6.3-3.2

-12.5

RoI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age (%)

Series1

Page 16: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Recession, RoI employment by sex

16

15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

RoI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age and sex (%)

MalesFemales

Page 17: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Recession, NI employment17

16-24 25-49 50+50-64(m) 50-59

(f) 65+ (m) 60+ (f) Total aged 16+ Tot work age

-20.8

-1.2

4.05.4

0.0

-2.4 -2.3

NI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age (%)

Page 18: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Recession, NI employment by sex

18

16-24 25-49 50+50-64(m) 50-59

(f) 65+ (m) 60+ (f) Total aged 16+

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

NI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age and sex (%)

MalesFemales

Page 19: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Where have all the workers gone?Many young people have gone into education and

training, which should bring longer-term benefits; no statistics yet

Emigration from RoI rose by 20,000 to 65,000 (CSO) Foreign workers left – 46,700 were non Irish 18,400 Irish nationals left Of those who left, 91% were aged 15-44 and 60%

were male

Knock-on effect: Ireland’s population aged 20-29 fell by 32,500 or 4.3% in one year, with implications for age dependency ratios

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Page 20: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

And increase in unemployment

20

Jan-Mar 2007 Jan-Mar 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Jan-Mar 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

RoI unemployment by age (000s)

15-1920-2425-3435-4445-5455-5960-64

Page 21: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Mortality (England)21

Page 22: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Disability free life expectancy (Eng)

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Page 23: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Sickness and retirement (UK)

Survey of retired men by Parker (1980) and Walker’s (1985) study of early retirement in Sheffield both found that ill-health had an important influence on the retirement decision

Analyses of the ONS Retirement Survey (Meghir and Whitehouse, 1995), suggested that ill-health was one of the main reasons for retirement before state pension age

Tanner’s (1997) analysis of the 1994 Retirement Survey found that 27% of those who left the labour force before SPA cited their own ill-health as the main reason; a further 5% attributed the decision to the ill-health of othersSee Lissenburgh, Stephen and Smeaton, Deborah (2003) Employment transitions of older workers: The role of flexible employment in maintaining labour market participation and promoting job quality. Bristol, The Policy Press for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation

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Page 24: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Work is good for your health but...

“The relationship between employment and health is close, enduring and multi-dimensional. Being without work is rarely good for one’s health, but while ‘good work’ is linked to positive health outcomes, jobs that are insecure, low-paid and that fail to protect employees from stress and danger make people ill.” - Fair Society Healthy Lives The Marmot Review: Strategic Review of Health Inequalities in England Post-2010

http://www.marmotreview.org/AssetLibrary/pdfs/Reports/FairSocietyHealthyLives.pdf

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Page 25: Living Longer- Working Longer: Older workers in Ireland- Paul McGill CARDI

Detailed statistics

I will be happy to provide the data behind the graphs in this presentation. Email [email protected]

Check out our website www.cardi.ie which is a good source of information on ageing research

Thank you for your time and interest

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