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Centre for Ageing Research and Development in Ireland
Living Longer – Working Longer
Older Workers in Ireland - Myths and Realities
Belfast, 10 Nov 2010
Paul McGill, Strategic Research Officer, CARDI
Recent population change
1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006-080
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
All Ireland older population
85+ 80-8475-7970-7465-69
2
Projected population change
3
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 20410
50100150200250300350400450500
NI projected rise in older population 2006-2041 (thousands)
85+75-8465-74
2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 20410
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
RoI projected rise in older population 2006-2041 (thousands)
85+75-8465-74
Life expectancy at 65
1925-27 1950-52 1960-62 1970-72 1985-87 1990-92 1995-97 2000-02 2005-0710
12
14
16
18
20
Figure 2.6: All-Ireland life expectancy at age 65
RoI maleNI maleRoI femaleNI female
Time periods
Num
ber
of
years
expecte
d
4
Who’s in and out of work?5
RoI healthy life years at 656
A close-up7
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
4.7
4.6
5.1
5.4
5.8
7.7
7.8
7.6
7.5
6.6
7.3
7.8
8.4
8.8
10
10.1
9.8
9.7
Unhealthy years at 65, detail
FemaleMale
Healthy life in Northern Ireland
8
UK pension rates 2010
Single Couple
Pension (£) 97.65 (132.60) 156.15 (202.40)
Median wage 09 £356.70 Pension as % wage 27.4 (37.2) 43.8
(56.7)60% median wage £214.02Gap 60% (£) 116.37 (81.42) 57.87
(11.62)RoI full contributory pension is €230.30(Figures in brackets include full pension credit) See
http://www.cardi.ie/userfiles/CARDI%20Pension%20Policy%20Briefing.pdf
9
Poverty10
2003 2004 2005 2006 200710
15
20
25
30
35
Fig 3.8: All Ireland risk of poverty of older people (%) (60% median)
RoINI BHC
RoI and UK in EU league11
Hunga
ry
Luxe
mbo
urg
Czech
Rep
ublic
Nethe
rland
s
Slov
ak R
epub
lic
Fran
ce
Pola
nd
Austri
a
Germ
any
Swed
en
Denm
ark
Belgi
um Italy
Repub
lic o
f Ire
land
Slov
enia
Greec
e
Malta
Portu
gal
Finla
nd
Roman
ia
Spai
n
Lithu
ania
Unite
d Kin
gdom
Bulga
ria
Esto
nia
Cypru
s
Latv
ia
4 57
10 10 11 1215 15 16
1821 21 21 21 22 22 22 23
2628 29 30
34
39
4951
EU risk of poverty rates 65+ in 2008
Wages and productivity by age
12
Older people and work13
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
All Ireland numbers in work by age group (2nd Q) 000s
55 -5960 - 6465+
Recession impact north and south
14
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
RoI numbers in work by age group, 2nd Q (1998=100)
All <55Age 55-59All 60+
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
NI numbers in work by age group, 2nd Q (1998=100)
All <5555-59All 60+
Recession, RoI employment15
15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+ Total
-51.9
-39.4
-13.2
-7.7
-2.9-0.6
-6.3-3.2
-12.5
RoI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age (%)
Series1
Recession, RoI employment by sex
16
15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
RoI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age and sex (%)
MalesFemales
Recession, NI employment17
16-24 25-49 50+50-64(m) 50-59
(f) 65+ (m) 60+ (f) Total aged 16+ Tot work age
-20.8
-1.2
4.05.4
0.0
-2.4 -2.3
NI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age (%)
Recession, NI employment by sex
18
16-24 25-49 50+50-64(m) 50-59
(f) 65+ (m) 60+ (f) Total aged 16+
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
NI change in numbers in work 2008-10 by age and sex (%)
MalesFemales
Where have all the workers gone?Many young people have gone into education and
training, which should bring longer-term benefits; no statistics yet
Emigration from RoI rose by 20,000 to 65,000 (CSO) Foreign workers left – 46,700 were non Irish 18,400 Irish nationals left Of those who left, 91% were aged 15-44 and 60%
were male
Knock-on effect: Ireland’s population aged 20-29 fell by 32,500 or 4.3% in one year, with implications for age dependency ratios
19
And increase in unemployment
20
Jan-Mar 2007 Jan-Mar 2008 Jan-Mar 2009 Jan-Mar 20100
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
RoI unemployment by age (000s)
15-1920-2425-3435-4445-5455-5960-64
Mortality (England)21
Disability free life expectancy (Eng)
22
Sickness and retirement (UK)
Survey of retired men by Parker (1980) and Walker’s (1985) study of early retirement in Sheffield both found that ill-health had an important influence on the retirement decision
Analyses of the ONS Retirement Survey (Meghir and Whitehouse, 1995), suggested that ill-health was one of the main reasons for retirement before state pension age
Tanner’s (1997) analysis of the 1994 Retirement Survey found that 27% of those who left the labour force before SPA cited their own ill-health as the main reason; a further 5% attributed the decision to the ill-health of othersSee Lissenburgh, Stephen and Smeaton, Deborah (2003) Employment transitions of older workers: The role of flexible employment in maintaining labour market participation and promoting job quality. Bristol, The Policy Press for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation
23
Work is good for your health but...
“The relationship between employment and health is close, enduring and multi-dimensional. Being without work is rarely good for one’s health, but while ‘good work’ is linked to positive health outcomes, jobs that are insecure, low-paid and that fail to protect employees from stress and danger make people ill.” - Fair Society Healthy Lives The Marmot Review: Strategic Review of Health Inequalities in England Post-2010
http://www.marmotreview.org/AssetLibrary/pdfs/Reports/FairSocietyHealthyLives.pdf
24
Detailed statistics
I will be happy to provide the data behind the graphs in this presentation. Email [email protected]
Check out our website www.cardi.ie which is a good source of information on ageing research
Thank you for your time and interest
25