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Peter Cheese, CIPD CEO slides from Changeboard's Future Talent Conference on 12 July 2014
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Future of Talent Conference
Managing the future workforce
Peter Cheese – CEO, CIPD
London July 10th
We live in interesting times!
• “we have moved from the industrial age, through the information age, to the age of talent”
• Thomas Friedman, ‘The World is Flat’ 2005
A new set of ‘norms’
Economy
Value
Work
Workplace
Workforce
Networked, Collaborative, Flexible
Formal Organization and Informal Social System Structures
More volatile and less predictable
Continued shift toward Intangibles
Increasingly
Increasingly
Increasingly
Increasingly
More diverse, more demandingIncreasingly
Sources: UN, OECD, UKCES, CIPD, Accenture Research
Countries Projected to have Maximum Workforce Shortages (2020)
Phase 2 of the ‘war for talent’ Talent and skills shortage ranked 2nd as business risk, up from 22nd in 2009 (Lloyds Risk Index)
Talent seen as nbr 1 issue for CEOs (PwC annual CEO review 2012), and nbr 1 risk (WEF 2013)
43% of businesses reporting moderate skills shortage, with 13% acute shortage(CIPD 2013)
2.3m more managerial, technical, professional roles by 2022
But….skills mismatches – eg LGA predicts that by 2022 there will be 9.2m low-skilled people chasing 3.7m low-skilled jobs – a surplus of 5.5m workers.
What will be the future workforce?
• More diverse, more demanding
• Working more flexibly, in many different ways
• More entrepreneurs, more knowledge workers, more service workers
• More specialists
• Working more in SMEs
• More jobs and more career changes
• Older and will work longer but with less security
• Will need to upskill and reskill more
• In a more VUCA world
• The great collaborators and orchestrators – coordinating and managing
• The great synthesisers – pulling together different things
• The great explainers – filtering and explaining content
• The great versatilists – adapting and developing specialist skills
• The great personalisers – team builders
• The great localisers – localising the global
• + IQ, EQ, TQ, CQ
What will be the core skills for the future (OECD view)
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Context: UK and global GDP per headUK World
$ 1
99
0
Source: Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden (2013). The First Update of the Maddison Project; Re-Estimating Growth Before 1820. Maddison Project Working Paper 4.
Must understand and address UK productivity gap
15-24 25-49 50-64 65+-677
-94
1,387
770
-305
186
1,235
1,956
Demographic change:Illustrative projections of change in employ-
ment by age group from 2012 baseline, thousands
2022 2032
Sources: CIPD calculations based on ONS 2012 Principal population projections and revised mid-year estimates for 2002 and 2007 , employment rates for May-Jul 2002 and 2012 based on the Labour Force Survey and CIPD assumptions for employment rates for 2017 onwards.
Systemic shift and challenge of youth unemployment
UK has worst ratio of youth to prime age employment in Europe
Response needed from macro to micro
Industrial StrategyEmployment Policy
Education and learning
Organisational StrategyWorkforce planningStrategic partnering
Leadership & managementTM practices
HR capabilities
• Will require more joined up thinking from national policy to individual businesses
• Tri-partite – Government, business, education and representative bodies
• HR has a critical role to play and must step up
Working with education – building the skills for the future
• Improving careers IAG• Promoting apprenticeships
and VE• Volunteering• Increasing employer skills
investment• Incentives and funding• Partnering for lifelong learning• National, regional and local
• Employability skills
• Routes in to work
• Skills investment and lifelong learning
• Source• Attract• Select• Orient
• Train• Develop• Reward• Move through
the Organization
Welcome to XYZ Corp
Orientation begins here
Need to invest in and improve People Management and development practices
Where are your biggest challenges today? Where will they be tomorrow?
Strategies to address skills
shortfalls
Rightsourcing
Recruitment strategies
Skills buildingSkills retention
Job Design
Requires different thinking
Creating agile learning organizations
Agility and Adaptability
Scop
e of
lear
ning
Low High
Core training
programs
Collaborative learning
Learning a new skill
Reinforcing existing
skills
Learning at point of needEmbedded
learning
Learning to solve problems
Learning to adapt
Focus of traditional corporate learning
On-line help and support services
Continuous, adaptive and collaborative
learning
Organizational reach and value
HR a key enabler, but developing managers is critical
In conclusion….Change and opportunity• Better more inclusive workplaces, more democratic,
more socially responsible• Better leadership and management at all levels• More agility – reskilling, redeploying, upskilling• More diverse TM practices to manage a more diverse
workforce• Working more with education at all levels• Improving productivity and job opportunities for all