Discovery: Discovery: Are there Are there recessionrecession proof proof

industries warranting industries warranting jobjob--search focussearch focusjobjob--search focussearch focus

Dec. 8, 2008Dec. 8, 2008TTruruYYmpactmpactTy A. ForenTy A. Foren

tforen@ aol.comtforen@ aol.com

Recession Proof Industries Recession Proof Industries Are they simple to identify ?Are they simple to identify ?

•• UtilitiesUtilities–– ElectricElectric–– GasGas–– WaterWater–– Waste Waste -- WaterWater–– Waste Waste -- SolidsSolids

Recession - [ri-sesh-uh n], from Recess

–– Waste Waste -- SolidsSolids

•• Health CareHealth Care

•• Govt.Govt.–– MunicipalitiesMunicipalities–– FederalFederal–– PolicePolice–– FireFire

Recess- [ri-ses, ree-ses]

�noun 1. temporary withdrawal or cessation from the

usual work or activity

The History of RecessionsThe History of Recessionshttp://jobbait.com/a/recession.htmhttp://jobbait.com/a/recession.htm

We've had 12 recessions since 1940 and we're in the 12th one now. Recessions We've had 12 recessions since 1940 and we're in the 12th one now. Recessions are officially announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research. are officially announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Here's their reportHere's their report. .

National Bureau of Economic Research National Bureau of Economic Research -- http://www.nber.org/cycles/http://www.nber.org/cycles/•• Only 2 of these recessions (11/73 to 3/75 and 7/81 to 11/82) lasted more than a Only 2 of these recessions (11/73 to 3/75 and 7/81 to 11/82) lasted more than a

year, averaging 16 to 18 months, and both were global recessions. All the rest year, averaging 16 to 18 months, and both were global recessions. All the rest were less than 1 year. Our current recession began in December 2007 and we're were less than 1 year. Our current recession began in December 2007 and we're were less than 1 year. Our current recession began in December 2007 and we're were less than 1 year. Our current recession began in December 2007 and we're already in the 12th month. Most experts are now projecting that our current already in the 12th month. Most experts are now projecting that our current recession will bottom out in midrecession will bottom out in mid--2009, putting it at 16 to 17 months total. 2009, putting it at 16 to 17 months total.

So, when will we recover? So, when will we recover? •• Best case:Best case: If the current recession bottoms out in midIf the current recession bottoms out in mid--2009 at 2009 at --3% growth, and 3% growth, and

we recover quickly as we did in the other two global recessions, we will be back we recover quickly as we did in the other two global recessions, we will be back on track in early 2010. on track in early 2010.

•• Worst case:Worst case: If the current recession bottoms out in midIf the current recession bottoms out in mid--2009 at 2009 at --4% to 4% to --5%, and 5%, and we recover slowly as we did in 1992 and 2003, we will not be we recover slowly as we did in 1992 and 2003, we will not be back on trackback on track until until early 2013. early 2013.

The History of RecessionsThe History of Recessions“Back on track," is referring to a time when employment growth exceeds the average growth. Notice how long it “Back on track," is referring to a time when employment growth exceeds the average growth. Notice how long it takes to recover & get back on track from the bottom of a recession. Recovery seems to depend on how long we go takes to recover & get back on track from the bottom of a recession. Recovery seems to depend on how long we go between recessions. between recessions. When recessions are frequent, we recover in 8 to 10 months. When When recessions are frequent, we recover in 8 to 10 months. When recessions are less frequent, it takes up to 24 months. The recession of 1991 took 21 recessions are less frequent, it takes up to 24 months. The recession of 1991 took 21 months to recover, and the recession of 2002 took 24 months. This would imply that our months to recover, and the recession of 2002 took 24 months. This would imply that our recovery this time will be longer this time around.recovery this time will be longer this time around.

RecessionsRecessions

@ 20yr national employment growth.@ 20yr national employment growth.

Many Questions came to mindMany Questions came to mind

• Someone�s gottttttt to be hiring� right?

– What industries do we target?– Why– Why

– Where (geography) do we job� search?

What are the experts stating�

WHAT INDUSTRIES -Top 9 Recession-Proof Industries - by Kristen King on June 15th, 2008

http://www.bizchicksrule.com/top-9-recession-proof-industries

• Computers / IT / Web Development � If you have skills to help companies increase efficiency & reduce costs using technology solutions, you�re a hot commodity.

• Criminal Justice / Police / Security - Crime rates aren�t going down as the economy comes to a screeching halt.

• Education- There is ALWAYS a need for teachers. There are never enough teachers.

• Energy- Despite high travel costs, we still need oil & gas � not just to get to work, but to run our homes, bus. Electricity, alternative energy & especially areas of lower-cost energy will never go away.never go away.

• Environment- Green building, green manufacturing, green everything is HUGE as we start to realize the impact of our actions on the world around us.

• Health Care & Medicine- "Luxuries" like cosmetic surgery may not be real growth areas right now, but especially with the physical effects of economic stress, the medical field is in no danger of slowing down. Physicians, nurses, assistants, and technicians- have improved job security.

• International Business- Things may be tough in the US, but that doesn�t mean they�re bad everywhere.

• Psychology / Counseling / Substance Abuse Treatment - As with medicine, psychological & mental health fields remain in high demand, especially as people deal with the stressors of the economy.

• State and Federal Government - Even in a recession, the government has to keep operating.

WHAT INDUSTRIES �Top 25 Careers to Pursue in a Recession - By HR World Editors

http://www.hrworld.com/features/top-25-recession-careers-022008/

• Health Care: People will always get sick � sometimes even more so when they don't have the insurance or money to take preventative measures or eat healthy food.

• Energy: Consumers likely to cut back, they're not going to stop using energy. In fact, this industry may grow, as companies look for more efficient ways to deliver energy.

• Education: There are always jobs for teachers. Kids will still go to school, and many out-of-work adults may decide to continue their education.

• Utilities: It's safe to assume people are not going to stop lighting their homes. So utility administration, maintenance & other related jobs should remain intact.

• International Business: Even when the economy is doing poorly in the U.S., other countries may be doing well. So if you are involved in international business, you can countries may be doing well. So if you are involved in international business, you can expect your career to stay safe.

• Public Safety: Police layoffs are very rare, especially when public safety is threatened by desperate criminals. A public safety career is almost guaranteed to be secure.

• Funerals: People will get sick and continue to die as well, so as morbid as it is, morticians will always have customers.

• Accounting: Death and taxes are a sure thing. In a recession, people & companies are likely to get desperate for more deductions and look hard at their books.

• Federal Government: Most federal-gov. jobs end only when workers retire. Additionally, government services tend to step-up in times of recession, so your chances of getting and keeping a government job are good.

• Pharmaceuticals: As long as doctors prescribe them, people are still going to take drugs. So pharmacist, pharmacy counter or in the lab, you can rest easy.

• Sales: As a general rule, anyone who is a source of income for a company will be safe, so salespeople � especially in recession-proof industries � have little to worry about.

• Gambling: When times get tough, people seek an outlet. One of those outlets is gambling, because it offers a chance to turn financial troubles around.

• Alcohol: Alcohol is another outlet for troubled times, so distributors & manufacturers in this industry will continue to thrive.

• Politics: Even in a recession, public officials are still around earning tidy sums, which are often tied to the cost of living.

• Skilled Services: Hair will always grow, & drains will always clog, so you can expect steady work in skilled services like plumbing and hairstyling.

• Debt Management: Recessions mean crunch time for debtors, they�ll need guidance. • Consulting: Recessions are crunch times for companies as well, & they're likely to bring

WHAT INDUSTRIES -Top 25 Careers to Pursue in a Recession -- By HR World Editors

http://www.hrworld.com/features/top-25-recession-careers-022008/

• Consulting: Recessions are crunch times for companies as well, & they're likely to bring in consultants for advice on efficiency.

• Bankruptcy Law: It's true: As companies & individuals go bankrupt, they'll need a lawyer.

• Government Contracting: Despite money troubles, roads must be maintained & schools must be built.

• Military: The military is always hiring, especially during wartime. Also, most of your living expenses are covered, so cost-of-living expenses are not really a concern.

• Food: People need food to survive, it's not likely that anyone is going to just stop eating � no matter how bad the economy gets.

• Beauty, Health and Erotic Services: Regardless of a recession, people who enjoy being pampered will seldom give up the simple pleasures in life.

• Debt Collection: As budgets get squeezed, people will fall behind on payments, and companies will look to debt collectors to recoup their costs.

• Ultraluxury Items: If you're in a business that caters to the ultra rich, you can expect to be safe, as this type of consumer is likely to have measures in place to weather the recession.

Top 1000 projections to 2016Top 1000 projections to 2016-- http://jobbait.com/a/rpi.htmhttp://jobbait.com/a/rpi.htm

WHAT INDUSTRIES -

WHAT INDUSTRIES- Rank order

If we know which industries, If we know which industries,

•Then where? •Is there a geographical

preference for our chosen field/industry?

•What's best in Wisconsin

Where? Where? RecessionRecession--Proof� definitionProof� definition

RecessionRecession--Proof Cities (Metropolitan Areas)Proof Cities (Metropolitan Areas)•• To date, To date, 6 cities are recession-proof, and another 29 are and another 29 are

almost recessionalmost recession--proof as of 11/23/08. proof as of 11/23/08. •• Please note Please note this list is getting smaller over timethis list is getting smaller over time. Three years . Three years

ago there were 78. As the 2008 economy continues to decline, ago there were 78. As the 2008 economy continues to decline, some cities are setting new record lows and falling off this list. some cities are setting new record lows and falling off this list. some cities are setting new record lows and falling off this list. some cities are setting new record lows and falling off this list.

Definition:Definition:•• To be To be ""recessionrecession--proofproof,"," an area must have grown faster than an area must have grown faster than

the average population growth since 1990, and during the the average population growth since 1990, and during the recessions that ended in 1991 and 2002, and today. recessions that ended in 1991 and 2002, and today.

•• To be To be almost recessionalmost recession--proofproof, it must have grown in all , it must have grown in all periods (green or grey). periods (green or grey).

WHERE?Employment Trends- The maps below shows the employment trends by state and industry for the 12-month period ending October 2008. (November data will be released the end of December, in case you're wondering.) Green is growing faster than the long-term average average rates, Grey is growing slower and Red is declining. White is not available.

Natural Resources & Mining Construction Manufacturing

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing

Professional & Business Services Education Healthcare & Social Assistance

Leisure & Hospitality Other (Auto repair, laundry, etc.) Government

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation & Warehousing

Utilities Information Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

WHERE?

The table shows the employment growth rates for 35 metropolitan

Green denotes growing faster than population growth and grey denotes growing slowly.

All data comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

State Area 90-08 1991 2002 2008 New Jobs Employed

Alaska Anchorage, AK 40% 0.8% 2.6% 0.7% 1,200 170,000 Arkansas Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO 93% 3.6% 3.4% 0.8% 1,700 211,000 California Bakersfield, CA 40% 4.5% 1.3% 1.4% 3,300 243,700 California Merced, CA 34% 6.8% 4.7% 1.7% 1,000 60,400 Colorado Grand Junction, CO 90% 2.3% 2.8% 3.9% 2,500 66,600 Colorado Greeley, CO 77% 1.7% 1.2% 1.1% 900 84,900 Idaho Coeur d'Alene, ID 133% 8.7% 3.4% 0.5% 300 58,900 Illinois Bloomington-Normal, IL 37% 2.5% 3.1% 0.2% 200 92,800 Illinois Springfield, IL 3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 200 112,500 Louisiana Alexandria, LA 31% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0 65,800 Louisiana Baton Rouge, LA 42% 3.6% 0.2% 0.3% 1,300 376,600 Louisiana Lake Charles, LA 23% 2.7% 1.3% 0.2% 200 92,900 Maryland Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV 44% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 800 103,300 Minnesota Rochester, MN 43% 1.0% 0.1% 0.5% 500 108,500 Minnesota St. Cloud, MN 43% 3.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0 104,800 Missouri Columbia, MO 52% 2.3% 2.6% 0.1% 100 95,300 Montana Billings, MT 56% 2.5% 3.7% 1.4% 1,100 82,500 35 metropolitan

areas (out of 351) from 1990 - 2008.

Montana Billings, MT 56% 2.5% 3.7% 1.4% 1,100 82,500 Montana Missoula, MT 66% 1.2% 2.2% 1.4% 800 58,600 North Carolina Asheville, NC 38% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0 180,900 North Dakota Bismarck, ND 53% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 1,200 62,000 Oregon Bend, OR 117% 3.0% 1.4% 0.3% 200 72,500 Pennsylvania State College, PA 26% 2.9% 1.5% 1.2% 900 77,800 Texas Brownsville-Harlingen, TX 63% 2.3% 1.3% 2.0% 2,500 126,000 Texas Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 47% 1.9% 0.0% 2.0% 52,300 2,634,900 Texas Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX 61% 1.5% 1.0% 2.0% 2,400 125,200 Texas Laredo, TX 94% 7.9% 3.9% 3.2% 2,800 89,200 Texas Odessa, TX 47% 4.5% 1.4% 2.1% 1,300 62,100 Texas Tyler, TX 50% 1.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1,000 94,900 Virginia Harrisonburg, VA 49% 1.2% 0.2% 1.9% 1,200 66,000 Washington Bellingham, WA 56% 1.4% 1.7% 0.5% 400 87,000 Washington Bremerton-Silverdale, WA 33% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0 87,100 Washington Kennewick-Pasco-Richland, WA 51% 2.0% 3.4% 2.4% 2,200 95,700 Washington Olympia, WA 58% 3.8% 1.4% 1.7% 1,700 104,500 West Virginia Charleston, WV 24% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 200 150,700 West Virginia Morgantown, WV 47% 2.6% 1.6% 2.4% 1,500 64,400

HEY WHERE THE HECK IS WISCONSIN…. ???

Where?

Closer to home,WI.

Government, HealthCare, Education,

Finance,ranked

So now what�So now what�

Handout

How to get a good job in a bad economy: 7 recession strategieshttp://lindseypollak.com/blog/?tag=recessionhttp://lindseypollak.com/blog/?tag=recession--proofproof--industriesindustries