THINK FAST!

Using CI for business development in a time of transformative change

Eric Garland

WILDCARD EVENTSSTRUCTURAL FACTORS

+ ACTOR DECISIONS

+

FORESIGHT 101

The big question:

Is this business-as-usual?

...or is something

entirely new

happening?

Competitive intelligence career hint:Nobody wants more bad news

Hey, by the way, 30 of the 50 states

declared bankruptcy today!

Go jump in a lake.

Tell me how to fix this mess or get out

of my office.

Considerably more popular:

Intelligence professionals who look for new opportunities along with competitive threats

Look, when our competitors went bankrupt, 200 of their best engineers

went looking for new work - an opportunity for HR?

Our challenge!Use the methodology of competitive intelligence to seek out profitable new business in a rapidly changing world

ON THE CUSP OF MAJOR, ONCE IN A LIFETIME

CHANGE

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Horrific national retail sprawl to finally collapse

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Population of senior citizens to double

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Replacing a workforce of 70 million with one of 30 million

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGETwo billion more people in economically

under-developed countries

Mexico city

Near East:Jordan, Syria, Israel – drinking from the same aquifer!

Egypt

Andalucia

Subsaharan Africa

Ogalalla Acquifer

N.S.W. Australia

China - $11 billion in lost manufacturing due to polluted water!

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Water will become more important than oil

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:Shift from the country to the

city almost complete:52% of the population

90% of the GDP

TRANSFORMATIVE CHANGE:U.S. healthcare expenditure from $2 trillion -> $4 trillion

That stings a little...

Well, I’m sucking

$400,000 out of your blood.

EXERCISES!

1. Pick your favorite transformative trend

2. Talk about all the people who will be affected, for good, bad or indifferent

3. Think about what they will need, want, dislike, etc.

4. Imagine a business that could be formed around this

5. Extra points: Say which companies are best poised to create those businesses - or if they need to be start-ups

THANK YOU!Eric Garland

Competitive Futures, Inc.1317 F St. NW Wash, DC 20004www.competitivefutures.com

(202) 508-1496