Higher Modern Studies 29 May 2008

Study Theme 1D

Electoral systems, voting and political attitudes

In 2007 the question was

The Additional Member System gives voters more choice and better representation than does First Past the Post.

Discuss. To see marking instructions for this question go to

http://www.sqa.org.uk/sqa/28058.html

We are going to focus on voter behaviour &political attitudes instead.

Influences on Voting Behaviour

Higher Modern Studies 29 May 2008

A possible question could be

To what extent has social class influenced voting behaviour in recent elections

(15 marks)

OR

Social class is no longer a significant factor in shaping political attitudes.

Discuss

(15 marks)

OR EVEN

Critically examine the importance of the media in influencing voter behaviour.

(15 marks)

There are a number of factors that have been argued to have an influence on how we vote.

Social class, age, gender, ethnicity,

locality

But voting patterns are changing and other factors are becoming increasingly important

Party affiliation, image & personalities, issues

And a major source of political information for voters is

The media – TV, newspapers, internet, PEBs, spin

Many candidates answers concentrate on

C

R

A

P

S

Class

Race

Age

Place

Sex

Good answers should include

P

I

M

P

Personality & Image

Issues

Media

Party affiliation

Remember to

PIMPAnd there’s no excuse for writing just

CRAP.

Does Age Matter?

Pensioners are more likely to vote Tory. Labour has “won” in every other age group in the last 4 general elections.2005 voting pattern:Age Group

Tory Labour LibDem

18-24 24 42 26

25-34 24 42 26

35-64 33 38 22

65+ 42 35 18Over 65’s are also more likely to vote, 75% turnout in 2005 compared to 37% of 18 -24 yr olds. Engaging young voters may decide future elections.

Does Sex matter?

Nowadays there are no significant differences between male and female voting patterns!

In 2005

38% of both male and female voters voted Labour

33% of men and 32% of women voted Conservative!In the past more men voted Labour and more women voted

Tory however the gap has steadily closed and there has been no significant difference in the last 3 elections.

What about where I live?

There is a clear North/South divide in UK voting which has been evident over several elections.

Labour are stronger in Scotland, Northern England, and the Midlands. Tories are strong in Southern England

But there are also strong regional variations e.g. Scotland is a 4 party contest.

And voting patterns could be explained by social class – the Labour vote is still strongest in areas where there is a larger working class population

Is Race an issue ?Ethnic Minorities: 7.9 % of UK population

 In 2005 approximately

60% of BMEs voted Labour.

10% voted Conservative.

15% voted Liberal Democrat.

 but the pattern is not even

80% of Afro-Caribbean’s voted Labour.

The Asian vote for Labour fell and more voted LD

Could Social Class be the real explanation?There are more social class ABs among the Asians

Or age and issues?LD’s gained votes among young BME voters with their strong anti-Iraq war stance.Labour’s immigration policy was a vote loser amongst the BME’s

Social Class

It used to be the most important factor in voting behaviour reason up until the 1970’s.

It has become less important thanks to DEALIGNMENT.

There is still some residual class loyalty among voters but it is no longer a reliable predictor of voting intentions.

Social Class

Refer to AB’s (professional and managerial),

C1’s, C2’s, D’s and E’s.

DO NOT talk about the “upper class”!

Class Tory Lab Lib

Dem

AB 37 32 24

C1 34 35 24

C2 32 43 18

DE 28 45 19

Voting by Social Class

2005Class Tory Lab Lib

Dem

AB 74 14 12

C1 59 30 11

C2 32 60 8

DE 27 66 7

1966

ABs still more likely to vote Tory

DEs still more likely to vote Labour

But voters are more volatile and parties no longer have clear class based manifestoes.

Dealignment –What’s that?

Social class structure has changed since the 1970’s•Old heavy industry has gone – the traditional ‘working class’ is disappearing

•new service jobs have taken over – the middle class is growing.

Old Labour lost their traditional “working class” voters (C2s & DEs)

Tories lost much of their traditional support among the C1s & ABs

New Labour attracted new middle class voters ( C1s & ABs)

And LibDems have made recent gains across all classes

Voters are now willing to change their alignments

Party Affiliation then?

Dealignment means long term commitment or affiliation to one party has disappeared over the last 30-40years.

Electoral Volatility = More Floating Voters

In 2005 36% of voters were willing to change their mind about which party they would support.

If there are more “floating voters” out there, then they can be influenced in other ways

In a pre-election poll in 2005 13% of voters were undecided. It would only have needed a 10% swing to the Tories for them to win

So ….

age matters,but sex no longer matters,race and place could be linked to classand class is much less important

What are the new influences ?

Have Image & Personality become more important?

In a 2005 MORI poll 31% of voters felt party leadership was the most important influence on how they vote compared with 24% who felt they identified with a party.

Blair Howard Kennedy

Capable leader 34 18 18

Understands world problems

24 12 11

Lots of personality

25 6 13

Honest 10 9 31

Out of touch 36 30 7

Image as a strong leader with lots of personality now seems to count for more than honesty or being able to relate to voters.

Do we care about the Issues?

Although Party Leader has become more important than PartyAffiliation for voters, Party Policy on issues has become a keyinfluence54% of voters in 2005 stated that policy on National issues was veryimportant to them45% felt policy on Local issues was very important to themHow well a party is believed to handle key issues can influence

elections.

Most Important Election Issue 2005

Health 73%

Education 62%

Law & Order 50%

Labour Lead on Key Issues (%) 2005

Issue 1997 2001 2005

Health +49 +28 +13

Education +39 +27 +9

Law & Order

+22 +4

Newspapers are an important source of political information

Newspapers are partisan – The Sun = Labour

The Daily Express = Tory

Readers may be influenced by the views of their daily newspaper

Political Parties recognise the importance of the newspapers - Rupert Murdoch ‘courted’ by Labour, News of the World sex offender campaign led to legislative change

BUTOnly 10% of people believe newspapers influence their vote

41% of Sun readers voted Labour in 2005 as did 23% of Financial Times readers although both papers support Labour – support for a party does not always translate into votes.

Is the Media behind it all?

TV has the potential to be a significant influence on the voting public.

The average UK citizen watches 25.2 hours of TV a week

51% of adults consider TV to be their main source of political information

TV is regulated and impartial – the public trust TV reporting of politicsParties spend a great deal of time & money managing their TV image BUT

Over half of voters claim to have already made up their minds about how they will vote before the campaign

Nearly half of voters say they pay little attention to political news coverage

TV may only serve to confirm the views of the voting viewers

However it only takes a small number of voters changing their mind to swing an election

Party Election Broadcasts were watched by 58% of voters in 2005

More than 50% of voters felt PEBs had influenced them

PEBS are popular but they may only confirm existing views

Political parties recognise the importance of the media

In 2005 the Labour Government employed 72 special advisors (Spin Doctors) - at a cost of £5.5million

During the campaign Labour paid £530,000 to a ‘Special Advisor and the Tories paid £441,146

The Parties certainly think Spin works

But do they directly influence voters opinions?

Election Posters 2005

No-one knows for sure if poster and PEB campaigns work

•They may just reinforce some voters views.

•They may help in reminding voters about the other parties’ weaknesses.

•They often focus on personalities

BUT – Parties spend £££millions on them

Election spending 2005

Conservatives: £17.8m

Labour: £17.9m

Source BBC interactive

Social class is no longer a significant factor in shaping political attitudes.Discuss

(15 marks)

•Class is no longer as significant – dealignment

•Residual class loyalty may explain the influence of Location & Race BUT Issues may also be the explanation

•Age matters & disengagement of the young may influence future election outcomes

•Increased voter volatility has increased the significance of other factors to take the place of class

•Strong party leadership image matters more than honesty & reliability or alignment with a party

•Policy on key issues can swing elections

•The Media has huge potential to influence voters

•Partisan press, public trust in TV, popularity of PEBs

•An important source of political info for voters which is recognised by parties

•BUT the media may only confirm views rather than shape them

•HOWEVER it only needs to influence a few to swing an election

Summary

Many different factors affect voting behaviour!

Social Class is still evident in voting but it is no longer hugely significant

BUT as more Floating Voters appear

Personality, Image, Issue and the Media can have a bigger impact.

Best of luck!