Why Hasn't the US become another Greece?

Another Slideshow fromEd Dolan’s Econ Blog

Why hasn’t the US become another Greece? A Comparison

of Two Budget Crises Posted April 4, 2013

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April 4, 2013 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

Not Long Ago the US Looked a Lot like Greece

Not so long ago, the trajectory of the US government budget deficit looked a lot like Greece. Both countries seemed to be headed down the same rathole

Since then, Greece has moved from crisis to disaster while the US has begun a slow but steady recovery

What has made the difference?



Reason 1: Greece was already Worse Off than we Thought

The first reason the US and Greek crisis have not continued in parallel is that already in 2009, the Greek economy was worse off than we then thought

This diagram compares recent data for the Greek deficit in 2007-2009 with the vintage 2010 data available three years ago

The Greek government has admitted that some data from that period were falsified to make the deficit look smaller than it really was



Reason 2: The Advantages of a Sovereign Currency

A second reason the US economy has done better than that of Greece is that the US has its own sovereign currency, the dollar

Greece, by contrast, is a member of the Eurozone. It has no independent control over its currency.

Having an independent currency has helped the United States in two ways . . .



A Sovereign Currency Allows More Exchange Rate Flexibility

One advantage of a sovereign currency is greater exchange rate flexibility

This chart shows real effective exchange rates for the US and Greece—a broad measure of international competitiveness

The US dollar has depreciated more during the crisis, helping US exports

The Greek exchange rate, linked to those of strong economies like Germany, has depreciated less



A Sovereign Currency Helps Keep Interest Rates Low

Another advantage is that a country with its own currency can, if need be, always issue enough new currency to pay its debts, but one with a shared currency cannot do so

The ability to issue additional currency to pay debts reduces the risk of default

Reduced default risk, in turn, lowers interest rates

Dramatically lower interest rates have made it far easier for the US to manage its debt during the crisis



Using the Output Gap to Track the Business Cycle

A country’s business cycle can be tracked using its output gap

The output gap is the amount by which real GDP exceeds or falls short of potential real output

Potential real output means the economy’s real GDP when it is operating along its normal trend, neither in a slump nor in a boom



Procyclical vs Countercyclical Fiscal Policy

Ideally, a country’s fiscal policy should be countercyclical. Such a policy would moderate the business cycle by stimulating the economy with tax cuts and new spending during a recession and using tighter policy to prevent overheating during a boom

In contrast, a policy that makes the business cycle worse by adding stimulus during a boom and applying austerity during a recession is procyclical


The Underlying Primary Fiscal Balance

A country’s underlying primary fiscal balance (UPB) provides a good indicator of whether its policy is stimulating or restraining the economy

The UPB is the government’s budget surplus or deficit, adjusted to remove the effects of the business cycle on taxes and spending, as well as for one-off items like privatization revenue and tax amnesties


Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Greece

Fiscal policy in Greece has been strongly procyclical over the past decade, as indicated by the fact that the UPB and output gap have moved in opposite directions

During the boom years of the early 2000s, the underlying primary balance moved toward deficit, causing the economy to overheat

After 2009, at the insistence of its EU partners, Greece undertook stringent austerity measures. Its underlying primary balance rose into surplus as its output gap plunged into a deep recession


Procyclical Fiscal Policy in the United States

Fiscal policy in the United States has also been procyclical , but not as strongly so as in Greece

As in Greece, during the boom years of the early 2000s, the US underlying primary balance moved toward deficit, causing the economy to overheat

In 2008 through 2010, the US at first used countercyclical stimulus to reduce the severity of the recession

After 2011, the US began to tighten fiscal policy. The UPB rose toward balance, but not into surplus. The recovery was slow but it did not stop completely


The Bottom Line

The United States did not become “another Greece” for three reasons:The Greek crisis was worse to begin withA sovereign currency gave the US government more room to maneuver, especially in terms of interest rates and exchange ratesBoth Greece and the United States have followed destabilizing, procyclical fiscal policies, but to a much greater degree in Greece than in the US.

For further discussion of the issues raised in this slideshow, see “Why Hasn’t the US become another Greece?”, Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog, April 4, 2013

March 29, 2013 Ed Dolan’s Econ Blog

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