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This report highlights US economic performance via three key indices. The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor
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3.5%
9.9%
4.5%
Payment Delinquency
Credit Card Delinquency
Credit Card Use
Manufacturing Retail
Real Estate
Construction
Business Services
Trade, Transportation
& Utilities
Small Business Health Index
U.S. Jobs Health
D&B U.S. Economic Health TrackerA multi-dimensional view of the U.S. Economy
D&B’s Small Business Health Index eroded once again, prompting some additional caution regarding the near-term economic outlook. While weather is a factor, the erosion warrants attention.
D&B estimates 197,000 new jobs were added to U.S. payrolls in March 2014, with notable gains in construction, business services, and trade/transportation/utilities.
April 2014
Small Business Health Index: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
60
80
100
120
Mar' 14Dec '10Dec '08Dec '06Dec '04
2.6points
US Jobs Health: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
140000
160000
180000
200000
220000
Mar' 14Feb' 14Jan' 14Dec' 13Nov' 13Oct '13
197,000
www.dnb.com/tracker
The D&B U.S. Economic Health Tracker revealed more mixed signals for U.S. businesses in March 2014. The recent decline in small business health continued after two quarters of remarkable stability. Weather is clearly a factor in the slippage, but the persistent sluggishness warrants close attention as the U.S. expansion moves into the second quarter. Meanwhile, an estimated 197,000 new jobs were created, boosted by strong gains in the construction, business services, and trade/transportation/utilities segments. Finally, overall U.S. business health continued to strengthen in March, registering a 53.1-percent index value, matching February as the highest recorded level since the index began in December 2010. U.S. businesses improved their financial health at the beginning of 2014, based on the weighted average of D&B’s Viability Rating, Delinquency Predictor, and Total Loss Predictor. All told, the mixed signals suggest the recovery for all U.S. businesses will continue in fits and starts.
The Small Business Health Index measures year-over-year small business performance through equally weighted payment patterns and credit use. U.S. Jobs Health combines Small Business Health Index industry data with BLS figures to forecast monthly nonfarm payroll employment. The U.S. Business Health Index provides a year-over-year equally weighted average of D&B’s Viability Score, Delinquency Predictor and Total Loss Predictor. The index ranges from zero (with all businesses recording high levels of risk) to 100% (with all businesses recording low levels of risk). Data available as of Mar. 28, 2014.
Methodology
www.dnb.com/tracker April 2014
About Dun & Bradstreet® (D&B)Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB) is the world’s leading source of commercial information and insight on businesses, enabling companies to Decide with Confidence® for 172 years. D&B’s global commercial database contains more than 230 million business records. The database is enhanced by D&B’s proprietary DUNSRight® Quality Process, which provides our customers with quality business information. This quality information is the foundation of our global solutions that customers rely on to make critical business decisions.
© Dun & Bradstreet, Inc. 2014. All rights reserved. (DB-3784 4/14)
U.S. Business Health Index
To learn more, visit www.dnb.com/tracker
Perspectives
12.2%
1.1%
Viability
Delinquency
1.2%Total Loss
US Business Health Index: Overall
Source: D&B Global Data, Insights & Analytics
45
50
55
Mar' 14Jan '13Feb' 12
IMPROVEMENT
NEUTRAL
DETERIORATION
5%
TOTAL INDEX VALUE53.1
Y/Y
U.S. business health improved 5 percent year-over-year in March 2014. Businesses were at less risk of failure and continued paying their bills on time.
How to read this indicator:
A reading of 50%
represents “neutral.”
A reading of more than
50% reflects improvement and a reading
of less than 50% reflects
deterioration.