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London Housing InquiryLondon Housing Pipeline Analysis
February 2017
INFRASTRUCTURE
FINANCE
PEOPLE
MARKETS
ECONOMY
OPERATIONS
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Development building process
1. When a planning application is submitted, a range of outcomes are possible including the following key decisions by the authority:
• Permission granted• Application refused• Application withdrawn• Other (no decision or outcome unknown)
2. Once an application has been granted permission, construction can begin. This is then classified as being under construction
3. When a scheme has been fully completed it is only then classified as Completed
4. Schemes are categorised into:• Market housing: for-profit developments built by private companies• Affordable housing: housing provided for people on low incomes by government
agencies or non-profit organisations. This includes all developments that do not go onto the open market, including affordable housing, affordable rent, shared rent, shared ownership etc.
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Criteria
The following analysis is based on:
• schemes of 10 units and above
• new developments/schemes that excludes 'refurbishments' and 'new behind façade'
• Applications, permissions and completions included in the period 2010-2016 (complete)
• Attrition rates are calculated by identifying units that have been given permission and have either been completed or are under construction (U/C). Rates are based on any permissions given between 2010-2013. The section 91 Town and Country Planning Act 1990* three year rule has been applied to the analysis. Therefore, any permission given after 2013 has not been included as construction could still yet commence.
* Please note analysis has not taken in to account where: The local planning authority may wish to consider whether a variation in the time period could assist in the delivery of development. For example, a shorter time period may be appropriate where it would encourage the commencement of development and non-commencement has previously had negative impacts. A longer time period may be justified for very complex projects where there is evidence that 3 years is not long enough to allow all the necessary preparations to be completed before development can start.
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Applications: Units
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Number of applications 2010-2016: Units
Market Units Affordable Units
No.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of market price and affordable applica-tions 2010-2016: Units
Market Units Affordable Units
No.
Since 2014, the number of applications for affordable units have grown year on year
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Permissions
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
Number of permissions 2010-2016: Units
Market Units Affordable Units
No.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of market price and affordable per-missions 2010-2016: Units
Market Units Affordable UnitsNo
.
Since 2014, just over 50,000 flats and houses have been granted planning permission each year
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Completions
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
Number of completions 2010-2016: Units
Market Units Affordable Units
No.
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% of market price and affordable comple-tions 2010-2016: Units
Market Units Affordable UnitsN
o.
On average, around 30% of new homes being built in London are ‘affordable’ homes
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Attrition rate
Permission year Unit permissions (LHS) Units under construction/completed (LHS) Attrition rate (RHS)
2010 25,551 18,710 27%
2011 30,256 20,176 33%
2012 55,134 27,940 49%
2013 39,206 25,251 36%
Total 150,147 92,077 39%
On average, over one in three homes (36%) are not built after planning permission is granted
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Average time to build development (months)
10-24 25-49 50-74 75-99 100-149 150-199 200-299 300-399 400-499 500+ Development Average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
34 3538
42 41 41
4844
64
54
38
Average time for completion (months) by status and size band (year of completion from 2010 to 2016)
Application to permission Permission to construction Construction to completion
Development size band
Mon
ths
Once permission has been granted, it takes on average 33 months for a development to be completed
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Completions – 2016
Number of completions by London fare zones in 2016
Almost 60% of all completions in 2016 have come in Zones 2 and 3
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To request further information please contact:
Ian TaskerDirectorE [email protected]
Stephen BromwichAssociate DirectorE [email protected]
