Predictably Irrational

Predictably Irrational Robin Deering

Predictably Irrational

By Dan Ariely

h"ps://www.amazon.com/Predictably-‐Irra:onal-‐Revised-‐Expanded-‐Decisions/dp/0061353248


Dan Ariely

•  James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavior Economics

•  Ph.D. in cognitive psychology & business administration

•  http://danariely.com/ h"p://www.scienceofrela:onships.com/home/2012/7/6/dan-‐ariely-‐on-‐chea:ng-‐and-‐infidelity.html


Why this book?

•  Accident causing third-degree burns

•  Pain associated with recovery

•  Are we irrational & why?

h"p://www.:mesofisrael.com/think-‐youre-‐honest-‐dan-‐ariely-‐will-‐make-‐you-‐squirm/


Relativity

•  Everything relative to each other

•  Example: Print vs. online offer

•  Searching for a guide

h"p://conversionxl.com/pricing-‐experiments-‐you-‐might-‐not-‐know-‐but-‐can-‐learn-‐from/


Supply & Demand

•  Market dictated •  Example: Diamonds & the DeBeers •  Supply & Demand- Dependent

h"p://www.lifehack.org/ar:cles/communica:on/heart-‐melt-‐10-‐proposal-‐ideas-‐from-‐movies-‐you-‐should-‐copy-‐and-‐paste.html


Zero

•  Paying more to pay nothing •  Emotional Surge •  Example: $0 shipping

h"p://www.apmex.com/freeshipping


Social Norms/Favors

•  Can money be offensive? •  Example: Moving •  Example: Dog sitting

h"ps://www.pinterest.com/densgrl4ever/?redirected=1


Free

•  Self implemented restrictions •  Example: 1 cent vs. free Starbursts •  Promotional ideas: buy 2 get 1 free


Arousal

•  Decisions differ from predictions •  High emotions = impaired judgment •  Sex Sells

h"p://www.geenamatuson.com/blog/2014/7/15/norma-‐jeanes-‐crazed-‐seduc:on


Procrastination

•  Self control •  Long-term thinking needed •  Positives of deadlines

h"p://www.cinemalaya.org/films/new-‐breed/quick-‐change


Value & Ownership

•  Value what we already own more •  Need to make people feel they

already own something

h"p://www.fandango.com/movie-‐news/news-‐briefs-‐see-‐new-‐jurassic-‐world-‐dinosaurs-‐kristen-‐stewart-‐joining-‐michelle-‐williams-‐for-‐indie-‐drama-‐748963


Options

•  Can be good or overwhelming •  Example: College •  At risk with too many design

options?


Expectations

•  What we expect dictates what we pay

•  Key to branding & character development


Expectations

h"p://yeahthatskosher.com/2014/12/brasserie-‐halevi-‐cedarhurst-‐ny-‐review/

h"p://www.weekendnotes.com/suez-‐delights-‐malaysian-‐restaurant/


Placebo

•  Are placebo’s ethical? •  Price effects placebo •  Don’t take away my placebo!

h"ps://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/placebo-‐are-‐you-‐there/


Distrusting Marketers

•  How does a designer get around that? •  Branding as family company •  Branding as an artist •  Honesty

h"p://www.indiewire.com/2015/06/adam-‐driver-‐and-‐alba-‐rohrwacher-‐on-‐nightmarish-‐hungry-‐hearts-‐and-‐why-‐star-‐wars-‐feels-‐indie-‐61295/


Dishonesty

•  People will cheat if they can •  How to prevent that •  Codes of conduct •  Signing off •  Religion

h"ps://helloworldciv.com/blog/why-‐ten-‐commandments-‐why-‐not-‐fiTeen


Cash & Honesty

•  Example: Steal a pencil or a dollar •  Difficult with online market •  Stealing designs vs. stealing money

h"p://www.avclub.com/review/writer-‐nebraska-‐gets-‐religion-‐confirma:on-‐233733


Behavior Economics

•  New field •  Other’s choices influence own •  Example: Ordering food

•  Want designs to be seen used by others

h"p://hookedonhouses.net/2009/05/10/movie-‐monday-‐the-‐french-‐village-‐of-‐chocolat/


Recap

•  Irrational decision making •  Repetitive decision making •  Ability to change


Personal Implications

•  Think through decisions •  Evaluate decisions at multiple steps •  Question things

h"p://steponmagazine.com/big-‐eyes-‐kitsch-‐and-‐realism-‐create-‐:m-‐burtons-‐best-‐work-‐in-‐a-‐decade/


Design Implications

•  Target decision making patterns •  Be willing to change

h"ps://worldonafork.com/2013/01/27/movies-‐about-‐art-‐ar:sts-‐and-‐painters/