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Oracle Demantra Overview

Nagappan Periakaruppan

Oct 2011

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Agenda

• Understand Demantra in the context of VCP (Value

Chain Planning)

• Describe key capabilities of Oracle Demantra

• Understand what business processes are supported

within Demantra

• Understand Oracle Demantra Concepts and Jargon

Oracle Value Chain Planning Solution

Future *

Integrated

Planning

Functions

Products

Platform

E1 EBS …Legacy

ERP* *

WFL Common planning

data model

Connectors

Network

Design Demand Sensing

And Shaping Postponement

Optimization Holistic

Supply

Planning

Promise,

Distribute, and

Replenish Execute to plan

Embedded

Analytics

Role-based Portals

Preconfigured

Worksheets and

Workbenches

Operational

Excellence

Real-Time S&OP

Demand driven

adaptive planning

Multi-Enterprise

Collaboration

Trading Partners

Best in class

Business

Processes

Supply Chain

Risk Management

Strategic

Network

Optimization

Inventory

Optimization

Real-Time

Sales &

Operations

Planning

Demand

Management

& Advanced

Forecasting

Predictive

Trade Planning &

Optimization

Advanced

Supply Chain

Planning

Production

Scheduling

Global

Order

Promising

Collaborative

Planning

Oracle Demantra Applications

Real-time Sales and Operations Planning

Predictive Trade

Planning

Demand

Management

Advanced Forecasting

and Demand Modeling

Trade Promotion Optimization

Deduction and

Settlement Management

Demantra Integration – The Big Picture

Trade

Management

Execution

Siebel CRM

Supply Chain

Management

and Financials

Oracle EBS

Strategic Network Optimization

Inventory Optimization

Adv. Supply Chain Planning

Global Order Promising

Collaborative Planning

Value Chain Planning

Demand Management

Demantra

Demand Management

Advanced Forecasting

Predictive Trade Planning

Promotion OptimizationDeduction and

Settlement Management

Trade Promotion Management

Real-Tim

e S

ale

s a

nd

Opera

tions P

lannin

g

Production Scheduling

JDE E1

Supply Chain

Management

and Financials

Demand Management

What is Demand Management?

• Planning for future demand scenarios

- Estimate future demand based on market

conditions

- Collaborative planning process involving internal

and external participants

• A crucial function for improving operational plans

- Optimal resource allocation

- Reduced inventory levels

- Improved customer satisfaction

What is Demand Management?

• Compare and consolidate disparate forecasts

- Sales, Marketing, Manufacturing

- In units or amount

• Improve forecast accuracy

- Better statistical forecasts

• Manage by exception

- Multi-dimensional OLAP for analysis (product,

channel, geography, …)

- User-defined exceptions

- Proactive alerts/notifications

Oracle Demantra – Key Features

• Relational Data Model

• Flexible Web Based UI

• Advanced Statistical Forecasting Algorithm

• Workflow Enabled Collaboration

• Series

Flexible Web Based UI

• Collaborator Workbench

• Worksheets

Collaborator Workbench

• Serves as Home Page/Entry Point to the users

• Worksheets are typically opened from workbench

• Can be configured to display KPI’s/Metrics

• Displays task alerts sent by the system/other users

Collaborator Workbench Cont’d

Worksheets

• The worksheet is the primary user interface of Oracle Demantra

Spectrum.

• Worksheets are where user view and adjust the forecast as well as

view and edit other data

• Worksheets can be filtered to specific data set (i.e. Brand A, Item A)

• Worksheets can be easily created or modified

• A worksheet can contain one or more views, usually displayed as

tabs or Multi Dimension View (MDI) within the worksheet

• Worksheet data can be exported to Excel or copy and pasted it to

other software tools.

Worksheets – UI Components

Menu and

Toolbar

Table

Graph

Activity

Details

Embedded

Worksheet

Member

Browser

Notes and

Attachments

Status Bar

Workflow enabled Collaboration

• Why collaboration capabilities are important?

• It is extremely critical to bring sales, operations, finance and marketing to

agreement on a single forecast number.

• A platform that enables collaboration between these stakeholders will

result in a better aligned corporation marching towards a common goal.

• Ability to easily tailor process flows that is custom to each business

• Web based workflow development tool allows creating new workflows and

modifying canned workflows easy.

• For example, you can have a workflow that enables collaboration between

account manager, regional manager and country manager before

finalizing the forecast.

• Process to define and handle exceptions

• Create workflows to handle exception events such as over/under

forecasting and remediation plans

• Workflows to integrate external systems

• Facilitate integrating external systems’ data through workflows

• For example, loading external customer forecast into the system

Workflow enabled Collaboration

between Stakeholders

Expressions / Color Coding Alerts

Demantra Statistical Forecasting

Capabilities

• Time series forecasting with causal

factors

• Bayesian-Markov algorithm uses a

mixed statistical model that is better

than best-fit approaches.

• Forecast tree uses hierarchy to

determine the best levels to forecast

• For example, start at the lowest levels in

the hierarchy and then move up one

step at a time.

• Nodal tuning capabilities

• Promotional Forecasting capabilitiesCausal Analysis

Outlier Detection

Promotion Events

Seasonality

Cyclical Patterns

Trend

Historical data

Bayesian Estimator

Forecast

Multiple causal factors

Combined model

Bayesian Optimizer

Causal Factors

• Global Factors

- Model global causal factors

that apply to all products and

locations

- For example, holidays such as

Thanksgiving and Christmas,

seasons, etc

• Local Factors

- Local causal factors apply to a

specific product and location

- For example, a snow plough is

more likely to sell more during

snowy season in the North-

East than in Arizona.

• Improved forecast accuracy as

a result of better incorporation

of the causals.

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Glossary of Terms

For Oracle employees and authorized partners only. Do not distribute to third parties.

© 2010 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential

Data Model

• Data Model represents a structure how data will be stored and

organized within the system

• Demantra Core Data Model structure made up of following 3

base dimensions

• Item Dimension

• Location Dimension

• Base Time Bucket (Daily or Week or Calendar Month)

• Item & Location Dimension contains one or more “Hierarchies”

(i.e. Customer Hierarchy, Product Family Hierarchy….etc)

• Each Hierarchy made up of two or more “Levels” and represents

“Child to Parent” relationship between them

• Demantra doesn’t allow “One to Many” child to parent relationship

i.e. If “Item” is a child level and “Product Family” is its parent level

then a given item can belong to only one product family.

Data Model Cont’d

Item & Location

DimensionHierarchy Level

Levels

For Oracle employees and authorized partners only. Do not distribute to third parties.

© 2010 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential

• Used in worksheets, import or export integration interface, and statistical forecasting

• Types of levels:

– Items - group data according to characteristics of items

– Locations - group data according to characteristics of locations

– Matrix/Combinations - group data according to time-independent characteristics of item-location combinations (i.e. Forecast System Status)

– Time - group data by sales date

– General Levels

– Promotions - group data according to characteristics of Promotions including Item, Location and Time. Used in AFDM promotion modeling and PTP modules

– Settlements - group data according to characteristics of Settlements including Item, Location and Time. Used in DSM module.

– CTO – Stores Model BOM definitions for a Independent Demand Item (a.k.a. Base Model). Used in CTO, part of DM module

Series

For Oracle employees and authorized partners only. Do not distribute to third parties.

© 2010 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential

• A set of data that can be displayed in a worksheet table or graph, at any aggregation level

• 3 data types of Series: Numeric, String, or Date

Workflow Manager

For Oracle employees and authorized partners only. Do not distribute to third parties.

© 2010 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential

• Web-based

• Not accessible to most end users

• Used to define and run workflows