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Chapter 18Population and Society

Demographic factors, changes, and theories

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Final Exam 3 hours MC (7 Chapters x 9=63) Short answer questions

3 of 5 One mandatory Total 4 x 4 marks=16

marks total. Essay Questions

8 questions posted on web before exam (Tues April 01)

During exam… One mandatory plus 2 of 4 Total of 3 essay questions 12 marks each

Total 115 marks

Chapter 11-religion Chapter 12-politics Chapter 13-social

movements Brym Chapter 3

Chapter 14-class, inequality Chapter 15-gender Chapter 16-ethnicity, race

Brym Chapter 4 Chapter 18-population,

demography.

MC & Short Answer on above (since last midterm)

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Essays returned at exam Post “grades to date”

Away April 2-8 Review Sessions, questions

Afternoons April 10 (F307, 1-2) April 11 (F307, 1-2).

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Demography A study of the growth, distribution,

and development of populations with respect to their geographic concentration and composition (by age, sex, marital status, etc.)

Demographic factors: fertility, mortality, and migration determine changes in population size

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Why demography is important? -first used for ... taxation &

conscription -guidelines for allocation of resources -planning for future social policies -evaluation of social policy,

international comparisons -gerontology researchers ....

relationships between different groups in population age structures.

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Boom, Bust & Echo: How to Profit From The Coming Demographic Shift(1996) David Foote

demographics is the key to understanding the past & forecasting the future. “Your year of birth is one of the most

important things about you.” Demographic determinism?

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born

born

* (1920-1930 cohort)

Banting & Best 1921 Depression

1929-39

WW11914-18

WW II1939-45

1980-1990cohort

Aside – cohort, period, maturation effects

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Population Aging -demographic or population aging is the

process whereby an entire population grows older. Indicators:

Mean age, median age, proportion 65+ The phenomenon of Population Aging is:

Unprecedented Pervasive Profound Enduring

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Population Aging

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“He ain’t heavy, he’s my boomer”Debate grows over seniors as burden? Toronto Star (May 27, 2007)

-past contributions-voluntary work-removed

mandatory retirement

Pensions Health care Housing Etc…

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Foot & Stoffman (1998) described life circumstances of birth cohorts born between

1914 – 1995.

(in million) current cohort born number age

baby-boom 1947-1966 9.9 30-50 baby-bust 1967-1979 5.6 25-35baby-boom 1980-1995 6.5 9-24

-echo

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Think about the “experiences” of these two cohorts Wave Surfers (1945-

55) More jobs,

advancement Lower home prices

Earned 1/3 more than fathers.

Junior Boomers (1956-1965)

Youth unemployment High

mortgage/interest rates

Higher grades university entry

Made 10% less than fathers

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Population Population is a collection of persons

alive at a specified time, that meets certain criteria Often national or geographic criteria

Population is a collectivity and it persists over time

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Membership of a population is continuously changing through processes of: Attrition: losses through out-migration and

death Accession: gains through birth and

immigration

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Interconnectedness of Demographic and Social Change

Aggregate demographic phenomena are the collective expression of individual behaviour conditioned by cultural norms and social structure

Examples: Acceptance of cohabitation causes decline in

total marriage rate and the median age at marriage

Changes in geographic origin of immigrants cause changes in Canadian society

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Examples (continued…) Changes in public health, medicine, and

standard of living at the turn of the 20th century have caused the size of today’s population of North America

The bubonic plague caused development of universities, and then nationalism, in the 15th-century Europe

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History of the World Population Until 1750:

Slow population growth

After 1750: Population explosion, particularly since the

early 19th century

The world population growth peaked in the 1970s, and has declined since

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Expectations for the 21st century: Most of the population growth will take

place in developing countries Annual increase between 2.6 and 2.5%

Population growth in the developed countries will be 0.1% annually

World population 1999 approx 6 billion, estimated to be 8 billion by 2022.

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The Future of the World Population Even if current fertility rates decline below

the replacement rate (2.1 children per woman), the population will continue to grow because of population momentum

Because of past high fertility and mortality decline, the proportion of population in reproductive ages will continue to grow Therefore kids are born!

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Because of decline in fertility, the population will grow older

The potential support ratio will decline

Potential support ratio: the number of persons of working age per one older person Eg: Italy from 4 to 2 (2 aged 15-64 for “every

older person”)

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Age Compositions Fertility plays a greater role than mortality

in determining the age composition

Low-fertility societies (in developed countries) have relatively few people in younger age brackets

Rapidly growing populations (in developing countries) form an age pyramid with a wide base and narrow top

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http://www.scalloway.org.uk/popu4.htm

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When the large young population in these countries reaches the working age, there may be a developmental opportunity or social unrest and political instability Why?

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Theories of Population Change Two opinions regarding the

interrelationship of population and resources: Curbing population growth is essential to

the balance between humans, resources, and the sustainable environment (Malthus)

Population size is a minor factor in this interrelationship (Marx)

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Demographic Transition Developed on the basis of changes in birth

and death rates in Western Europe in the context of socio-economic modernization -gradual process …. society moves from having

high to low fertility/mortality rates (population aging begins).

Applicable to developing countries, although their vital rates have been changing in different structural conditions

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Stages: Pre-transitional: high birth and death

rates Transitional: high fertility and declining

death rates Final: low fertility and mortality

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“Demographic Transition” of Western Europe What is the population

change in each of the phases of transition?

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Modifications to Demographic Transition Theory The original theory posits that economic

development, urbanization, and decline in mortality preceded the decline in fertility

Coale: fertility declines when Fertility decisions are left to choice (i.e., cultural

and religious norms do not forbid fertility control) Reduced fertility is viewed as economically

advantageous Effective methods of fertility control are known and

available

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Declining mortality rates in developing countries have been achieved through family planning and public health programs offered by the industrialized countries

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Malthusian Theory of Population Malthus (1798) believed that:

Humans are strongly motivated by sexual desire

Humans are highly fertile. Therefore, population follows geometric

(exponential) progression Economic resources, particularly food

production, follow arithmetic progression

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Population can be controlled by: Positive checks (famine, war, and disease) Negative checks (postponed marriage and

abstinence)

He considered contraception immoral

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Criticism of Malthusian Theory Failure to consider problem-solving

capacity of humans Agricultural and industrial revolutions were

responses to population growth

Optimal population size depends on the level of economic activity and consumption

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Reversal: population does not put pressure on economy Economy presses the population to

consume

Unacceptability of birth control is inconsistent with the goal of population control

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Canadian Population: Components of Growth Traditionally, natural increase has been

the main factor in population growth Two-thirds of the growth in the last 150

years

Since the 1980s, immigration has accounted for half of the population growth

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Canadian Population: Mortality Crude death rate: 7

The number of deaths per 1,000 population)

Life expectancy at birth: 79 The average number of years of life for a

newborn under prevailing mortality conditions Increased life expectancy is caused by lower

infant mortality

Infant mortality: 5.3 Number of infant deaths divided per 1,000 live

births)

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Epidemiological Transition in Canada Industrialized societies have gone

through three epidemiological stages: Infectious and parasitic diseases, violence,

and accidents are leading causes of death; life expectancy is low

The “stage of receding pandemics” (1750–1900): infectious diseases are resisted, life expectancy increases

The stage of “man-made and degenerative diseases”: chronic and degenerative ailments, accidents, violence, and suicide are leading causes of death

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Canada is in the fourth stage It is similar to the third: survival by people

with degenerative diseases is increased, especially among the old

The majority of deaths is compressed past age 65

Compression of morbidity

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Canadian Population: Fertility Crude birth rate: 11

Number of births per 1,000 population

Total fertility rate: 1.49 Number of children a woman would bear

according to age-specific birth rates over her reproductive years

The highest TFR was in 1959: 3.94

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The proximate determinants of fertility are influenced by social factors The extent of non-marriage The level of contraceptive use The degree to which abortion is practiced The level of postpartum amenorrhea

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The Baby Boom Economic prosperity of the 1940s explains

the rise of marriage and early procreation

The major institutions provided security and stability Social safety-net was developed

Pro-natalist values promoted by the church

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Gender roles encouraged female preoccupation with marriage, motherhood, and home

These conditions changed in the 1960s due to women’s flight from domesticity and improvements in fertility control

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The Baby Bust Two explanations:

Economic: the rising material and non-material costs of parenting

Rising value of time for women Hamper career / potential income “Psychic” costs

Cyclical theory: the size of one’s birth cohort influences one’s economic opportunities, and therefore one’s parenting preferences

This is a self-regulatory process

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Sociological explanations: structural and economic forces interact with ideational factors

Fertility changes are based on diffusion of changing ideas

Individualism Consumerism

Material preferences/goals over early marriage, family building.

Sex-role revolution Emancipation from traditional sex roles, alternatives.

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Implications of Sub-replacement Fertility Can be followed through transformation

of age pyramids over the course of demographic transition: The true pyramid: a high percentage of

population under 15 The constrictive pyramid: fertility declines The stationary pyramid (Canada will attain it

in 2036)

48The Daily, Statistics Canada, Oct 26, 2006.

Median age

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Dependency Ratio (s) ratio examines number of “dependent

persons” or “non-workers”. In population supported directly or indirectly by those in labour force. Youth DR (#0-17 / 18-65) Old-age DR (#65+ / 18-65) Total DR

a ratio of 62 = there are 62 people(0-17 and 65+) for every 100 people 18-64. -in 2001 …..TDR = 62

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The elderly replace the youth as the dependent part of the population

Canada will probably need large numbers of immigrants to correct a low potential support ratio

Problems with DR ?

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Canadian Population: Migration 18% of Canadians are first-generation

immigrants

The traditionally British immigration started to diversify after WWII In the 1970s, Asia, Caribbean, Latin

America, and eastern Europe became major source areas

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Majority settle in large metropolitan areas that provide the most economic opportunities and supportive ethnic communities

Internal (interprovincial) migration follows a core–periphery pattern

Migration is most common at ages 20–34 It is also influenced by sex and marital status

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Doom, Gloom, something else?

Celebrate population aging? Innovations, policy modification International comparisons Winners/losers

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Eliminated mandatory retirement Life long learning

Increase immigration Increase home care Health promotion Etc..

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The Course Ends with a Graph Go figure !

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