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3 Economic Consulting A valuable source of information about the homebuilding industry Up-to-date monitoring - takes the “pulse” of the homebuilding industry Gets the views of both new home builders and renovators Trending – tracks how key aspects of the homebuilding industry are changing over time Regional results - can look at variation across the country Benchmarking - lets individual homebuilders gauge their performance against other builders Fills the gaps – allows exploration of issues not covered by other sources that are important to the homebuilding industry
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Economic Consulting
CHBA Pulse Survey:Renovator Highlights
Economic Consulting
Peter Norman, Senior Director & General ManagerAltus Group Economic Consulting
CHBA Renovators’ CouncilMarch 4, 2010
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Economic Consulting
Pulse: what it is and how we do it
Mail survey
Typically 6-8 page questionnaire
Tracking questions, as well as new issues each survey
Sent to all CHBA builder members (new home builders, renovators)
External sponsors – CMHC and Natural Resources Canada
Analyzed by Altus Group Economic Consulting
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Economic Consulting
A valuable source of informationabout the homebuilding industry
Up-to-date monitoring - takes the “pulse” of the homebuilding industry
Gets the views of both new home builders and renovators
Trending – tracks how key aspects of the homebuilding industry are changing over time
Regional results - can look at variation across the country
Benchmarking - lets individual homebuilders gauge their performance against other builders
Fills the gaps – allows exploration of issues not covered by other sources that are important to the homebuilding industry
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Economic Consulting
Recent Pulse Highlights
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Economic Consulting
Renovators in all regions reported higher activity on average in past year…
Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2010Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2010
% of Renovators% of Renovators
49
38
60
4841
5046
2331
0
22
136
20
0
15
30
45
60
75
BC Alberta Man/Sask Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada
Higher Lower
Change in renovation activity in last 12 monthsChange in renovation activity in last 12 months
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Economic Consulting
… and in general were relatively optimistic about increased work for the next year
Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2010Source: CHBA Pulse Survey, Winter 2010
% of Renovators% of Renovators
4438
60
4135
27
40
7 40
1510 7 10
0
15
30
45
60
75
BC Alberta Man/Sask Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada
Higher Lower
Expected change in renovation Expected change in renovation activity in next 12 monthsactivity in next 12 months
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Economic Consulting
Almost two-thirds of CHBA builder members involved in renovation work to some degree
44
22
6 6 7
16
36
25
6 7 7
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
Zero 1-24% 25-49% 50-74% 75-99% 100%
2009 2010
% of Builders% of Builders
Source: CHBA Pulse SurveySource: CHBA Pulse Survey
% of Total Revenues Generated by Renovation Work% of Total Revenues Generated by Renovation Work
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Economic Consulting
About 1 in 4 builder members generate at least half of revenues from renovation work
35
10
22
36
29 2924
17 16
4449
3532
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
BC Alberta Man/Sask Ontario Quebec* Atlantic Canada
2009 2010
% of Pulse Respondents Reporting at Least 50% of Revenues% of Pulse Respondents Reporting at Least 50% of RevenuesIn Past Year Generated from Renovation WorkIn Past Year Generated from Renovation Work
Source: CHBA Pulse SurveySource: CHBA Pulse Survey
n.a.
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Economic Consulting
This year’s top critical problems for renovators
23
1
3
3
1
4
4
17
1
5
4
9
6
3
42
10
9
7
6
6
6
0 10 20 30 40 50
Undergroundeconomy
Mold
Increasing BuilderLiability
InsuranceRates/Premiums
ConsumerConfidence
Builder profitability
Insurance Coverage
Winter 2008
Winter 2009
Winter 2010
% of Renovators
Source: CHBA Pulse SurveySource: CHBA Pulse Survey
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Economic Consulting
2 in 3 renovation projects by CHBA/APCHQ members valued at more than $50,000
Source: CHBA Pulse SurveySource: CHBA Pulse Survey
% of Renovators% of Renovators
2217
20 18
914
1813
2027
149
0
10
20
30
40
50
$10,000 orless
$10,001-$25,000
$25,001-$50,000
$50,001-$100,000
$100,001-$200,000
$200,001+
Winter 2009Winter 2010
Average size: Average duration:Average size: Average duration:
$40,000$40,000 6 weeks6 weeks
$50,000$50,000 8 weeks8 weeks
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Economic Consulting
Altus Group’s Outlook for Renovation Spending
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Economic Consulting
After more than doubling in previous 10 years, real renovation spending stalls
2002=100 (constant dollars)
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Q11993
Q11994
Q11995
Q11996
Q11997
Q11998
Q11999
Q12000
Q12001
Q12002
Q12003
Q12004
Q12005
Q12006
Q12007
Q12008
Q12009
Source: Altus Group based on Statistics Canada dataSource: Altus Group based on Statistics Canada data
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Economic Consulting
Homeowner renovation intentions improve markedly
1211
1011
1011
1412 12
1110
13
0
4
8
12
16
20
Dec-98
Dec-99
Dec-00
Dec-01
Dec-02
Dec-03
Dec-04
Dec-05
Dec-06
Dec-07
Dec-08
Dec-09
% of Homeowners Agreeing Completely Planning Renovations over $5,000
Source: Altus Group, The FIRM Residential Mortgage Survey
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Economic Consulting
% of Home Owners Agreeing Completely That They Plan toUndertake Renovations of At Least $5,000 in Next Year
Renovation intentions by region
Source: The FIRM Residential Mortgage Survey
118
12 11 10
15
1110 11
17
13 12
17
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
B.C. Alberta Man./Sask. Ontario Quebec Atlantic Canada
Sept.08 & Dec.08 Sept.09 & Dec.09
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Economic Consulting
Home renovations, an estimated $55 billion industry
30.233.2
37.341.3
45.749.9
54.9 54.0 55.253.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f 2011f
Total Residential Renovation Spending, Canada, $Billions, Current
* Includes conversions and repairs. Source: Altus Group Economic Consulting based on Statistics Canada data
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Economic Consulting
Questions?
