11

MOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLYMOVING PEOPLE AND GOODS SUSTAINABLY

AIUS / AITPM SeminarAIUS / AITPM Seminar

Garry GlazebrookGarry Glazebrook12 Nov 200912 Nov 2009

University of Technology, SydneyUniversity of Technology, SydneyGarry.Glazebrook@uts.edu.au

22

The ChallengeThe Challenge

Peak OilPeak Oil is a looming threat is a looming threat

Climate ChangeClimate Change is only slightly less is only slightly less urgent, and potentially more seriousurgent, and potentially more serious

Health also important (obesity, Health also important (obesity, pollution, social connectivity etc)pollution, social connectivity etc)

TransportTransport needs to be more needs to be more sustainable and our cities more sustainable and our cities more resilientresilient

33

WEO 2008 WEO 2008 and Uppsala and Uppsala Oil Outlook Oil Outlook

2008 2008

Source: Alaklett, 2009Source: Alaklett, 2009

44

Coal production forecastCoal production forecast

2006

55

How long have we got? - OilHow long have we got? - Oil Global Oil Production will decline. Australia’s share Global Oil Production will decline. Australia’s share

may also decline with competition from rising may also decline with competition from rising demand in China, India etcdemand in China, India etc

We should plan for We should plan for at least 50% reduction in oilat least 50% reduction in oil availability for transport over the next 30 yearsavailability for transport over the next 30 years

Cars will also face increased competition for oil Cars will also face increased competition for oil products from trucks, ships, airlines, plastics products from trucks, ships, airlines, plastics industry, fertiliser industry etc. industry, fertiliser industry etc.

There is a possibility that urban car-based travel There is a possibility that urban car-based travel will be seen as will be seen as expendableexpendable if supplies really get if supplies really get short….short….

66

Substitutes?Substitutes? GasGas can be used as a transport can be used as a transport

fuel (LPG) but also be subject to fuel (LPG) but also be subject to rising competition, peaking of rising competition, peaking of supply and rising prices. supply and rising prices.

CoalCoal to liquids – problems with to liquids – problems with logistics, cost and COlogistics, cost and CO22, and with , and with future supplyfuture supply

Ethanol and other biofuelsEthanol and other biofuels also have limits on scale of also have limits on scale of production and ramp up speedproduction and ramp up speed

In any event, need to reduce In any event, need to reduce CO2 emissions from transport CO2 emissions from transport along with other sectors. along with other sectors. Transport can’t expect to Transport can’t expect to escape scot free. escape scot free.

77

What are the options for a city like What are the options for a city like Sydney?Sydney?

Reduce overall travelReduce overall travel

Shift modes to walk/cycle/public Shift modes to walk/cycle/public transporttransport

Increased energy efficiency within Increased energy efficiency within modesmodes

Electric power with green electricityElectric power with green electricityEnergy / Oil / Energy / Oil / GreenhouseGreenhouse

Amount of Amount of TravelTravel

Energy / Oil / Energy / Oil / Greenhouse Greenhouse

IntensityIntensity

XX

88

Reducing Travel…Urban Consolidation…Reducing Travel…Urban Consolidation…

Has been happening, and Sydney has been getting denser, Has been happening, and Sydney has been getting denser, although still low density on a world scalealthough still low density on a world scale

This has probably been a factor in halting the rise in VKT/capita, This has probably been a factor in halting the rise in VKT/capita, which has been stable for the last decadewhich has been stable for the last decade

Continuing consolidation and TOD will help reduce travel demand Continuing consolidation and TOD will help reduce travel demand per capita, but changes are relatively small.per capita, but changes are relatively small.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Bri

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Can

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Per

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Ho

ust

on

Ph

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Ad

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Det

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Bo

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Sac

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Die

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Den

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Syd

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Win

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New

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Van

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Cal

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Co

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Ott

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Mo

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To

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Par

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Am

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Bru

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Cities with extensive Underground Railway Systems (Metros)

Sydney

Other Australian Cities

440

99

Reducing Travel…Employment LocationReducing Travel…Employment Location

Shifting “Global Shifting “Global Sydney” jobs out of Sydney” jobs out of the CBD will increase the CBD will increase rather than decrease rather than decrease energy, oil and energy, oil and greenhouse greenhouse emissions emissions

Less specialised jobs can and should be decentralisedLess specialised jobs can and should be decentralised

But important to have a limited number of major centres But important to have a limited number of major centres (CBD, Parramatta, Macquarie) rather than dozens of (CBD, Parramatta, Macquarie) rather than dozens of small centres which will not be able to justify their own small centres which will not be able to justify their own high quality public transport networks.high quality public transport networks.

1010

FreightFreight

Freight task continues to growFreight task continues to grow Rail still losing out to trucksRail still losing out to trucks Need to be serious about mode shift Need to be serious about mode shift

for interstate freight and freight into for interstate freight and freight into the portthe port

Needs key investments, new models Needs key investments, new models backed by pricing signalsbacked by pricing signals

1111

Personal MobilityPersonal Mobility For For shortshort trips, trips,

need to shift to need to shift to bikes, scooters bikes, scooters and other and other personal mobility personal mobility devices..devices..

These can also These can also efficiently efficiently accessaccess public transport public transport for longer trips..for longer trips..

But greenway But greenway networks and networks and secure lock up secure lock up and shower and shower facilities facilities needed…needed…

1212

Sustainable Mass TransitSustainable Mass Transit

1313

Sydney’s public transport (especially trains) Sydney’s public transport (especially trains) are very significant…are very significant…

(Cityrail accounts for 10% of weekday travel, 2/3 of public transport passenger-kms in Sydney (Cityrail accounts for 10% of weekday travel, 2/3 of public transport passenger-kms in Sydney and 1/3 of all public transport passenger-kms in Australia)and 1/3 of all public transport passenger-kms in Australia)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Total

Pa

ss-K

ms

(Bill

ion)

Ferry

Bus

Light Rail

Heavy Rail

1414

10% of our travel could be 100% 10% of our travel could be 100% greenpower tomorrowgreenpower tomorrow

All trains and trams All trains and trams could be switched to could be switched to greenpower within 2 greenpower within 2 yearsyears

Cost = $30m paCost = $30m pa

Compare with $5b for Compare with $5b for CBD metroCBD metro

Costs will decline over Costs will decline over time as black-power time as black-power gets more expensivegets more expensive

1515

Shifting modes – land useShifting modes – land use

1616

But Sydney is falling behind because of But Sydney is falling behind because of lack of appropriate investmentlack of appropriate investment

Percentage Increase in Public Transport Patronage by City since 1999

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

140%

150%

160%

170%

180%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Sydney

Melbourne

SEQ

Adelaide

Perth

Total

1717

Shifting modes - investmentShifting modes - investment

Sydney’s rail and bus Sydney’s rail and bus systems have capacity systems have capacity problemsproblems

There are things we can There are things we can do in the short term do in the short term (next five years)….(next five years)….

Longer term, we need a Longer term, we need a comprehensive plan…comprehensive plan…

1818

Short term : 33% more trains on the current Short term : 33% more trains on the current infrastructure (25% increase to CBD)infrastructure (25% increase to CBD)

1919

Short term - LRT extensionsShort term - LRT extensionsSave $5 billion compared with CBD Metro,Save $5 billion compared with CBD Metro,

And gain better accessibility…And gain better accessibility…

2020

Short term - integrationShort term - integration

Integrated fares and Integrated fares and ticketstickets

Quality interchangesQuality interchanges

Integrated planning and Integrated planning and fundingfunding

Integrated information Integrated information and marketingand marketing

2121

Energy efficiency and sourcesEnergy efficiency and sources Shift to hybrids, plug Shift to hybrids, plug

in electrics and in electrics and smaller cars is smaller cars is starting..starting..

But will take decadesBut will take decades

Assume 50% cut in Assume 50% cut in oil, GHG and energy oil, GHG and energy per VKT within 27 per VKT within 27 years (2036)years (2036)

2222

A Thirty Year PT PlanA Thirty Year PT Plan

10% cut in per capita 10% cut in per capita traveltravel

Double walk, cycle, PT Double walk, cycle, PT usageusage

No further rise in car-No further rise in car-VKTVKT

>50% cut in oil use, >50% cut in oil use, GHG emissions GHG emissions (despite 30% pop (despite 30% pop growth)growth)

2323

A Thirty Year PT Plan: Travel by ModeA Thirty Year PT Plan: Travel by Mode

A= Business as usual; B = 30 Year Plan; C=Major changeA= Business as usual; B = 30 Year Plan; C=Major change

2424

The Overall PlanThe Overall Plan

2525

Metro NetworkMetro NetworkFill major heavy rail gaps, links CBDs and universitiesFill major heavy rail gaps, links CBDs and universities

2626

Inner City LRT NetworkInner City LRT Network serves secondary radial routes in the inner west, serves secondary radial routes in the inner west, east, and inner southern suburbs, and the CBDeast, and inner southern suburbs, and the CBD

2727

Bus-based Ring Routes and Park and RideBus-based Ring Routes and Park and Ride

Six Ring Routes for Cross-Regional TravelSix Ring Routes for Cross-Regional Travel

40 Strategic P&R facilities40 Strategic P&R facilities

2828

Capacity EnhancementsCapacity Enhancements

101

127 127 127

167

3245 54 54 54

30

60

60

612

26

1224

4060

8

40

0

50

100

150

200

250

2006 2016 2026 2036 LongTerm

2006 2016 2026 2036 LongTerm

2006 2016 2026 2036 LongTerm

Sydney CBD Parramatta Macquarie

Tra

ins

Arr

ivin

g in

Pea

k H

ou

r

Metro Total

Heavy Rail Total

Peak Hour Heavy Rail and Metros - 2036Peak Hour Heavy Rail and Metros - 2036 Long Term including High Speed RailLong Term including High Speed Rail

Inbound peak hour trains by route (top)Inbound peak hour trains by route (top)

Build up in peak hour trains arriving CBD, Build up in peak hour trains arriving CBD, Parramatta and Macquarie (right).Parramatta and Macquarie (right).

2929

Funding SourcesFunding Sources UsersUsers

– FaresFares

Other beneficiariesOther beneficiaries– Accessibility beneficiaries (land)Accessibility beneficiaries (land)– Congestion relief (road congestion charges)Congestion relief (road congestion charges)– Environmental benefits (carbon taxes etc)Environmental benefits (carbon taxes etc)– Social benefits (general taxation to cover Social benefits (general taxation to cover

subsidies for children, pensioners etc)subsidies for children, pensioners etc)

3030

ImplementationImplementation $40 billion extra $40 billion extra

over 30 years to PTover 30 years to PT

Saves at least Saves at least $100b in car-$100b in car-related costsrelated costs

Implementation by Implementation by a Sydney a Sydney Sustainable Sustainable Transport Board Transport Board with wide with wide representationrepresentation

3131

ConclusionsConclusions Sydney badly needs a long term plan which Sydney badly needs a long term plan which

addresses peak oil, global warming and other addresses peak oil, global warming and other sustainability issues.sustainability issues.

This needs to have public involvement and This needs to have public involvement and public supportpublic support

We have already seen what happens when a We have already seen what happens when a city doesn’t have such a plan…city doesn’t have such a plan…

The 30 Year Plan aimed to help establish a The 30 Year Plan aimed to help establish a discussion in Sydney on our future transport discussion in Sydney on our future transport needs and solutionsneeds and solutions

3232

Independent Public InquiryIndependent Public Inquiry Take issue beyond politics – independent of governmentTake issue beyond politics – independent of government

Public MeetingsPublic Meetings

500 submissions500 submissions

Market research and funding analysisMarket research and funding analysis

Key focus on funding, governance, short term Key focus on funding, governance, short term improvements and long term enhancementimprovements and long term enhancement

More opportunities for public involvement when draft More opportunities for public involvement when draft report is released – will set out various options for report is released – will set out various options for comment and feedback.comment and feedback.

Its our city and out children’s future – its up to us….Its our city and out children’s future – its up to us….

3333

Thank YouThank You

Background reports for Public InquiryBackground reports for Public Inquiry

www.transportpublicinquiry.com.au www.transportpublicinquiry.com.au

Copies of the 30 Year Public Transport Copies of the 30 Year Public Transport Plan are available at Plan are available at

http://www.dab.uts.edu.au/research/outcomes