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Southern California Water Dialogue

April 23, 2008

Jon Costantino

Climate Change Planning Manager

California Air Resources Board

AB 32 California Global Warming Solutions AB 32 California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 and the Scoping PlanAct of 2006 and the Scoping Plan

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What Is AB 32?What Is AB 32?

• Sets in statute 2020 GHG emissions limit at 1990 level– Acknowledges that 2020 is not the endpoint

• Air Resources Board (ARB) to monitor/regulate GHG sources

• Extensive collaboration with other agencies

• Mandates that a Scoping Plan be adopted by January 1, 2009, with ARB as lead

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AB 32 TimelineAB 32 TimelineAB 32 TimelineAB 32 Timeline

20202007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

GHG reduction

measures enforceable

Adopt GHG reduction measures

Publish list of early actions

Adopt scoping plan

Mandatory reporting &

1990 Baseline

Adopt enforceable early action regulations

Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels

Identification/ implementation

of further emission reduction strategies

Early action regulations enforceable

4ARB, “California 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level and 2020 Emissions Limit” (2007), www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccei/inventory/1990_level.htm

California GHG EmissionsCalifornia GHG EmissionsCalifornia GHG EmissionsCalifornia GHG Emissions

2004 Emissions (480 MMT CO2e)

Electricity Generation (Imports)

13%

Residential6% Electricity

Generation (In State)

12%

Commercial3%

Agriculture6%Transportation

38%

Industrial20%

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Water, Energy and GHG EmissionsWater, Energy and GHG EmissionsWater, Energy and GHG EmissionsWater, Energy and GHG Emissions

• Approximately 19 percent of electricity demand and 32 percent of non-generation natural gas demand is due to water use

• The CAT estimated that California’s water-related emissions total about 44 MMTCO2e

• A lot of interest in how water can help the State reduce its GHG emissions

• The Wet CAT is developing GHG emission reduction strategies and measures including

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Magnitude of the ChallengeMagnitude of the ChallengeMagnitude of the ChallengeMagnitude of the Challenge

ARB Emissions Inventory

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 2000 2004 2020 2050

Year

Mil

lio

n M

etri

c T

on

s(C

O2

Eq

uiv

alen

t)

1990 Emission Baseline

~173 MMT CO2e Reduction

80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e

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ARB 2020 Emission ReductionsARB 2020 Emission ReductionsMoving towards the 2020 TargetMoving towards the 2020 Target

ARB 2020 Emission ReductionsARB 2020 Emission ReductionsMoving towards the 2020 TargetMoving towards the 2020 Target

10130

1626

Adopted Regulations (AB 1493, Anti-Idling)

Discrete Early ActionMeasures

Other Early Actions

Remaining Reductions (Scoping Plan, CAT)

(Already Identified 72 of 173 MMTCO2e)

MMTCO2e

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What Is the Scoping Plan?What Is the Scoping Plan?What Is the Scoping Plan?What Is the Scoping Plan?

• California’s plan, developed by ARB, to reduce the State’s emissions to 1990 levels by 2020

• A model for other states, regions or nations

• A process to develop cost-effective GHG emission reductions

• A tool to identify economic benefits from improved efficiency and business creation

• An opportunity to provide co-benefits and additional reductions in criteria and toxic emissions

• A vision for a low carbon future beyond 2020

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Who Is Developing the Who Is Developing the Scoping Plan?Scoping Plan?

Who Is Developing the Who Is Developing the Scoping Plan?Scoping Plan?

• ARB is responsible for developing and approving the Scoping Plan

• ARB is working closely with Cal/EPA and the Climate Action Team subgroups– Technical evaluations performed by multi-agency teams– Stakeholder outreach will be a joint effort with other

State agencies

• Advisory groups (EJAC, ETAAC & MAC) providing recommendations

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Who Else Is Involved?Who Else Is Involved?Who Else Is Involved?Who Else Is Involved?

• Climate Action Team subgroups• Local air districts & other local government• Industrial sources• Transportation sources• Environmental groups• Community groups• Public• California Climate Action Registry• Western Climate Initiative• International organizations

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Climate Action Team (CAT)Climate Action Team (CAT)Climate Action Team (CAT)Climate Action Team (CAT)

• Climate Action Team led by Cal/EPA, includes: – Business, Transportation and Housing Agency, Department

of Food and Agriculture, Resources Agency, Air Resources Board, Water Resources Control Board, Energy commission, Department of Water Resources, and Public Utilities Commission

• Many GHG reduction activities cut across agency boundaries

• Agencies other than ARB are lead for important components

• CAT will oversee coordinated effort for implementing global warming emission reduction programs and report on progress

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Climate Action Team SubgroupsClimate Action Team SubgroupsClimate Action Team SubgroupsClimate Action Team Subgroups

• Agriculture • Energy • Forests• Waste Management• Water/Energy

• Cement• Land Use and Local

Government• Green Buildings• State Fleet

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Public ProcessPublic ProcessPublic ProcessPublic Process

• Stakeholder outreach– Public workshops to discuss plan development

• November: scoping plan kick-off workshop (L.A.)• December: sector summary workshop (Sac.)• January: mechanisms workshop (Oakland)• May: scoping plan scenarios workshop (Sac.)

• Cat subgroup stakeholder meetings – ongoing• Economic analysis technical workgroup – ongoing• Program design technical workgroup – ongoing• Community meetings – planned

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What Will Be in the Scoping Plan?What Will Be in the Scoping Plan?

• AB 32 requires maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG emission reductions to achieve target of 427 MMTCO2e

• Possible components include:– Direct regulations– Alternative compliance mechanisms– Market-based compliance mechanisms– Monetary and non-monetary incentives

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Mechanisms to be Evaluated for Mechanisms to be Evaluated for AB 32 ImplementationAB 32 Implementation

Mechanisms to be Evaluated for Mechanisms to be Evaluated for AB 32 ImplementationAB 32 Implementation

• AB 32 requires ARB to achieve the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective greenhouse gas emission reductions

• Many possible mechanisms available:– Direct Regulations, Voluntary Early Actions– Market-Based Mechanisms

• Cap and trade• Offsets

– Other Mechanisms• Incentives, fee-bates, voluntary actions, carbon fee, intensity

standards

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Examples of Direct RegulationsExamples of Direct RegulationsExamples of Direct RegulationsExamples of Direct Regulations

• Direct regulations are a major part of AB 32 implementation

• ARB adopted regulations– AB 1493– Anti-idling regulations– Port electrification

• Early action regulatory proceedings underway

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Statutory FrameworkStatutory FrameworkStatutory FrameworkStatutory Framework

• In adopting regulations to implement Scoping Plan, the Board shall:– Be equitable, minimize costs and maximize total

benefits, encourage early action– Avoid disproportionate impacts– Ensure voluntary reductions get appropriate credit– Consider cost-effectiveness, overall societal benefits– Minimize administrative burden– Minimize leakage– Consider significance of sources

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Additional RegulationsAdditional RegulationsAdditional RegulationsAdditional Regulations

• California energy related programs contribute to GHG emission reductions– Renewable Portfolio Standards– Building standards, utility energy efficiency programs– Other State agency regulations

• CAT Subgroups and associated sector teams are evaluating possible measures that might be basis for source or sector regulations

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Core Measures Core Measures in the Scoping Planin the Scoping Plan

Core Measures Core Measures in the Scoping Planin the Scoping Plan

• Core emission reduction measures expected to be included in Scoping Plan:– AB 1493 (Pavley) Emission Standards– Low-Carbon Fuel Standard– Reduction of Vehicle Miles Traveled– Other ARB Discrete Early Actions– CAT Early Actions– Energy Efficiency– Renewable Portfolio Standard– High Global Warming Potential Gases– Other Core Measures Identified By CAT Subgroups

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Importance of Local ActionImportance of Local ActionImportance of Local ActionImportance of Local Action

• Cities and residents impacted by climate change

• Local governments have authority• Can achieve substantial co-benefits• Serves as a model for residents and other

cities

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2008 ARB GHG Activities2008 ARB GHG Activities2008 ARB GHG Activities2008 ARB GHG Activities

• Hold Scoping Plan scenarios workshop (May 5)

• Release draft Scoping Plan release (June 26)

• July workshops on draft Plan

– July 8, 14, 17 (LA, Fresno, and Sacramento)

• Release final plan proposal (October 3)

• Hold board hearing on scoping plan (Nov. 20–21)

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Ultimate GHG GoalsUltimate GHG GoalsUltimate GHG GoalsUltimate GHG Goals

• Create model that is copied by other states and nations

• Develop least cost approach

• Generate economic benefits due to improved efficiency and business creation

• Achieve other societal benefits, such as associated reductions in criteria and toxic emissions

• Reduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020• Provide a vision for a low carbon future - 2050

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After the Scoping Plan - Next StepsAfter the Scoping Plan - Next StepsAfter the Scoping Plan - Next StepsAfter the Scoping Plan - Next Steps

• ARB will update Scoping Plan every five years• Integration with possible regional or federal

greenhouse gas programs• Enforcement

– Scoping Plan commitments– Adopted regulations

• Accountability– State agency (CAT) provided first annual “report card”

to legislature March, 2008

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Contacts and More InformationContacts and More Information

• ARB Climate Change Web Site– http://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htm– Stay informed - sign up for list serve

• California Climate Change Portal– http://www.climatechange.ca.gov

• Jon Costantino– (916) 324-0931– jcostant@arb.ca.gov