1 Southern California Water Dialogue April 23, 2008 Jon Costantino Climate Change Planning Manager California Air Resources Board AB 32 California Global

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  • *Southern California Water Dialogue

    April 23, 2008

    Jon CostantinoClimate Change Planning ManagerCalifornia Air Resources BoardAB 32 California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 and the Scoping Plan

  • *What Is AB 32?Sets in statute 2020 GHG emissions limit at 1990 levelAcknowledges that 2020 is not the endpointAir Resources Board (ARB) to monitor/regulate GHG sourcesExtensive collaboration with other agenciesMandates that a Scoping Plan be adopted by January 1, 2009, with ARB as lead

  • *AB 32 Timeline2020200720082009201020112012GHG reduction measures enforceableAdopt GHG reduction measuresPublish list of early actionsAdopt scoping planMandatory reporting & 1990 BaselineAdopt enforceable early action regulationsReduce GHG emissions to 1990 levelsIdentification/ implementation of further emission reduction strategiesEarly action regulations enforceable

  • *ARB, California 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level and 2020 Emissions Limit (2007), www.arb.ca.gov/cc/ccei/inventory/1990_level.htmCalifornia GHG Emissions

    1990

    23.4279135479

    14.4268566681

    61.5770198095

    49.0493574171

    103.0250229587

    29.6570700675

    150.6699251179

    1990 (427 MMT CO2E)

    Transportation35%

    2004

    27.9465910083

    12.8065923599

    61.2486765521

    58.50110782

    96.2147180533

    29.1015502166

    182.3705329138

    2004 Emissions (480 MMT CO2e)

    Electricity Generation (In State)12%

    Transportation38%

    Industrial20%

    2020

    31.6448751865

    14.6271926816

    56.817672777

    86.3119112523

    102.2664909833

    32.1000106256

    228.8567169004

    2020 (600 MMT CO2E)

    Data

    Economic Sector199019902004200420202020

    Agriculture23.45%27.96%31.65%

    Commercial14.43%12.83%14.62%

    Electricity Generation (Imports)61.614%61.213%56.89%

    Electricity Generation (In State)49.011%58.512%86.314%

    Industrial103.024%96.220%102.317%

    Residential29.77%29.16%32.15%

    Transportation150.735%182.438%228.938%

    Forestry0.20%0.20%0.20%

    Not Specified1.30%16.03%48.08%

    Gross Emissions433.3484.4600.8

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • *Water, Energy and GHG Emissions

    Approximately 19 percent of electricity demand and 32 percent of non-generation natural gas demand is due to water useThe CAT estimated that Californias water-related emissions total about 44 MMTCO2eA lot of interest in how water can help the State reduce its GHG emissionsThe Wet CAT is developing GHG emission reduction strategies and measures including

  • *Magnitude of the Challenge

  • *ARB 2020 Emission ReductionsMoving towards the 2020 Target (Already Identified 72 of 173 MMTCO2e)MMTCO2e

  • *What Is the Scoping Plan?Californias plan, developed by ARB, to reduce the States emissions to 1990 levels by 2020A model for other states, regions or nationsA process to develop cost-effective GHG emission reductions A tool to identify economic benefits from improved efficiency and business creationAn opportunity to provide co-benefits and additional reductions in criteria and toxic emissionsA vision for a low carbon future beyond 2020

  • *Who Is Developing the Scoping Plan?ARB is responsible for developing and approving the Scoping PlanARB is working closely with Cal/EPA and the Climate Action Team subgroupsTechnical evaluations performed by multi-agency teamsStakeholder outreach will be a joint effort with other State agenciesAdvisory groups (EJAC, ETAAC & MAC) providing recommendations

  • *Who Else Is Involved?Climate Action Team subgroupsLocal air districts & other local governmentIndustrial sourcesTransportation sourcesEnvironmental groupsCommunity groupsPublicCalifornia Climate Action RegistryWestern Climate InitiativeInternational organizations

  • *Climate Action Team (CAT)Climate Action Team led by Cal/EPA, includes: Business, Transportation and Housing Agency, Department of Food and Agriculture, Resources Agency, Air Resources Board, Water Resources Control Board, Energy commission, Department of Water Resources, and Public Utilities Commission Many GHG reduction activities cut across agency boundariesAgencies other than ARB are lead for important componentsCAT will oversee coordinated effort for implementing global warming emission reduction programs and report on progress

  • *Climate Action Team SubgroupsAgriculture Energy ForestsWaste ManagementWater/Energy

    CementLand Use and Local GovernmentGreen BuildingsState Fleet

  • *Public ProcessStakeholder outreachPublic workshops to discuss plan developmentNovember: scoping plan kick-off workshop (L.A.)December: sector summary workshop (Sac.)January: mechanisms workshop (Oakland)May: scoping plan scenarios workshop (Sac.)Cat subgroup stakeholder meetings ongoingEconomic analysis technical workgroup ongoingProgram design technical workgroup ongoingCommunity meetings planned

  • *What Will Be in the Scoping Plan?AB 32 requires maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG emission reductions to achieve target of 427 MMTCO2ePossible components include:Direct regulationsAlternative compliance mechanismsMarket-based compliance mechanismsMonetary and non-monetary incentives

  • *Mechanisms to be Evaluated for AB 32 ImplementationAB 32 requires ARB to achieve the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective greenhouse gas emission reductions Many possible mechanisms available:Direct Regulations, Voluntary Early ActionsMarket-Based MechanismsCap and tradeOffsetsOther MechanismsIncentives, fee-bates, voluntary actions, carbon fee, intensity standards

  • *Examples of Direct RegulationsDirect regulations are a major part of AB 32 implementationARB adopted regulationsAB 1493Anti-idling regulationsPort electrificationEarly action regulatory proceedings underway

  • *Statutory FrameworkIn adopting regulations to implement Scoping Plan, the Board shall:Be equitable, minimize costs and maximize total benefits, encourage early actionAvoid disproportionate impactsEnsure voluntary reductions get appropriate creditConsider cost-effectiveness, overall societal benefitsMinimize administrative burdenMinimize leakageConsider significance of sources

  • *Additional RegulationsCalifornia energy related programs contribute to GHG emission reductionsRenewable Portfolio StandardsBuilding standards, utility energy efficiency programsOther State agency regulationsCAT Subgroups and associated sector teams are evaluating possible measures that might be basis for source or sector regulations

  • *Core Measures in the Scoping PlanCore emission reduction measures expected to be included in Scoping Plan:AB 1493 (Pavley) Emission StandardsLow-Carbon Fuel StandardReduction of Vehicle Miles TraveledOther ARB Discrete Early ActionsCAT Early ActionsEnergy EfficiencyRenewable Portfolio StandardHigh Global Warming Potential GasesOther Core Measures Identified By CAT Subgroups

  • *Importance of Local ActionCities and residents impacted by climate changeLocal governments have authorityCan achieve substantial co-benefitsServes as a model for residents and other cities

  • *2008 ARB GHG Activities

    Hold Scoping Plan scenarios workshop (May 5)Release draft Scoping Plan release (June 26)July workshops on draft PlanJuly 8, 14, 17 (LA, Fresno, and Sacramento)Release final plan proposal (October 3)Hold board hearing on scoping plan (Nov. 2021)

  • *Ultimate GHG GoalsCreate model that is copied by other states and nationsDevelop least cost approach Generate economic benefits due to improved efficiency and business creationAchieve other societal benefits, such as associated reductions in criteria and toxic emissionsReduce emissions to 1990 levels by 2020Provide a vision for a low carbon future - 2050

  • *After the Scoping Plan - Next StepsARB will update Scoping Plan every five yearsIntegration with possible regional or federal greenhouse gas programsEnforcementScoping Plan commitmentsAdopted regulationsAccountabilityState agency (CAT) provided first annual report card to legislature March, 2008

  • *Contacts and More InformationARB Climate Change Web Sitehttp://www.arb.ca.gov/cc/cc.htmStay informed - sign up for list serveCalifornia Climate Change Portalhttp://www.climatechange.ca.govJon Costantino(916) 324-0931jcostant@arb.ca.gov

    ***Timeline of actions required by AB 32On track to meet these timelines as will be noted in this presentation*Californias greenhouse gas inventory numbers for 2004 stand at 480 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent (MMTCO2e).This is an increase of 53 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent from the 1990 level of 427 MMTCO2e. Transportation dominates the inventory at 38 percent of the total greenhouse gas emissions.Electricity and the industrial sectors contribute the next largest amount of emissions at 25 percent and 20 percent, respectively.*Water is very important in California and a lot of GHG emissions are related to water use

    We know that the water sector wants to help and we want to help the water sector be a part of the GHG solution*This chart shows the magnitude of our challenge. By 2020 California must reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels 173 MMTContinue making GHG reductions on to 2050 as shown in the last bar on the right. Collectively this means reducing:Todays levels by 15 percentProjected 2020 levels by 28 percent Emission intensity by 33 percentScoping Plan must get us to these goals

    *2020 GHG inventory estimated at almost 600 MMTCO2e Goal of reaching 1990 level by 2020 requires 173 MMT reductionRegulations already adopted will results in about 30 MMT of reductions by 2020In addition, 44 Early Ac