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1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update Status Update and and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Vlad Isakov Todd Sax Todd Sax August 27, 2003 August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Page 1: 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDYWILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY

Status Update Status Update and and

Introduction to Modeling ProtocolIntroduction to Modeling Protocol

Vlad IsakovVlad Isakov

Todd SaxTodd Sax

August 27, 2003August 27, 2003

California Air Resources Board

Page 2: 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Wilmington Neighborhood Assessment - Conceptual PlanWilmington Neighborhood Assessment - Conceptual Plan

• What are estimated emissions and pollutant concentrations?

• What are health risks?

• What do the results mean?• Can I trust them?

Emissions

Modeling

Input DataAnalysis

ModelEvaluation

Health RiskAssessment

Results and RiskCommunication

Assessment Evaluation

Meteorology

Uncertainty Analysis

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

Page 3: 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Status Update - Emissions InventoryStatus Update - Emissions Inventory

• Industrial-Commercial FacilitiesIndustrial-Commercial Facilities– Inventory complete and has received QA/QCInventory complete and has received QA/QC– Evaluation expected to be complete for next meetingEvaluation expected to be complete for next meeting– Modeling has been initiatedModeling has been initiated

• On-Road SourcesOn-Road Sources– Exhaust emissions estimatedExhaust emissions estimated– Running evaporative loses, and on-road dust not yet quantifiedRunning evaporative loses, and on-road dust not yet quantified– Modeling in progressModeling in progress– Inventory evaluation not yet initiated.Inventory evaluation not yet initiated.

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

Page 4: 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Status Update - Emissions InventoryStatus Update - Emissions Inventory

• Ports Ports – State-of-science inventories: best in the worldState-of-science inventories: best in the world– Los Angeles data expected December 2003. Includes:Los Angeles data expected December 2003. Includes:

• All off-road equipment at marine terminalsAll off-road equipment at marine terminals• Harbor Craft - detailed load estimates (on-board survey)Harbor Craft - detailed load estimates (on-board survey)• Ocean-going vessels - 50 ships boarded. Stack data and engine load measurements directly from ships. Ocean-going vessels - 50 ships boarded. Stack data and engine load measurements directly from ships. • Railroads - Electronic engine records for 18 locomotives on standard routes. Railroads - Electronic engine records for 18 locomotives on standard routes. • On-Road Trucks - Idling and movement estimates all terminalsOn-Road Trucks - Idling and movement estimates all terminals

– Long Beach data expected December 2003Long Beach data expected December 2003• Covers all dockside emissions - POLA methodsCovers all dockside emissions - POLA methods• Ocean-side - allocate existing inventories using Warfinger dataOcean-side - allocate existing inventories using Warfinger data

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

Page 5: 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Micro-scale

Wilmington Modeling ProtocolWilmington Modeling Protocol

• Developing new protocol specific to WilmingtonDeveloping new protocol specific to Wilmington– Improvements based on Barrio LoganImprovements based on Barrio Logan– Expanded ProtocolExpanded Protocol for improved model evaluation for improved model evaluation

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

Page 6: 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Previous Work – Barrio Logan StudyModeling Approach for the Wilmington Air Quality StudyRegional Scale Modeling Details

Model selectionModeling Domains and Time PeriodEmission Inputs Meteorology (models, data, model evaluation)Initial and boundary conditionsAir quality model pre-testingOther Model Evaluations

Micro-scale Scale Modeling DetailsEmissionsModeling Domain and Time PeriodInputs for Micro-scale Modeling

Model Performance EvaluationRegional model evaluation (performance for ozone, for toxics, sensitivity simulations)Micro-scale model evaluationUncertainty Analysis

Combining Micro-scale and Regional Model ResultsZero-out approach, Tracers approach, Other approaches

Modeling Protocol - OverviewModeling Protocol - Overview

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

Page 7: 1 WILMINGTON AIR QUALITY STUDY Status Update and Introduction to Modeling Protocol Vlad Isakov Todd Sax August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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WAQS – Micro-scale Modeling WAQS – Micro-scale Modeling

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

ISCST3, AERMOD and CALPUFF for point and area sources,

CALINE and ISCST3 for mobile on-road sources

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Wilmington Tracer StudyWilmington Tracer Study

• Elevated ReleaseElevated Release– Release Location: LADWP Power Plant in WilmingtonRelease Location: LADWP Power Plant in Wilmington– Objective Objective

• formulate and evaluate a short-range dispersion model applicable formulate and evaluate a short-range dispersion model applicable to elevated sources in urban areasto elevated sources in urban areas

• to extend the limited databases for evaluating the performance of to extend the limited databases for evaluating the performance of short-range dispersion short-range dispersion

models in urban areas. models in urban areas.

– Schedule Schedule • pilot study – 09/2003pilot study – 09/2003• main field study – main field study –

summer 2004summer 2004

– Typical tracer dispersion Typical tracer dispersion

patternpattern from LADWPfrom LADWP

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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Wilmington Monitoring StudyWilmington Monitoring Study• Study planned for Fall-Winter 2003-2004Study planned for Fall-Winter 2003-2004

– One stationary, 2-3 portable sitesOne stationary, 2-3 portable sites• Each portable site at a single location for two weeksEach portable site at a single location for two weeks

– Focus on diesel PM - Qualitative measurementFocus on diesel PM - Qualitative measurement• No direct surrogate for diesel - requires innovative approachNo direct surrogate for diesel - requires innovative approach• Direct-Reading: Black Carbon, Carbon Monoxide, Total PAHDirect-Reading: Black Carbon, Carbon Monoxide, Total PAH• Hypothesis: BC/CO and PAH should be higher in areas that are impacted by diesel PM than in non-impacted areasHypothesis: BC/CO and PAH should be higher in areas that are impacted by diesel PM than in non-impacted areas• Sites not yet determinedSites not yet determined

– Ports conducting a separate, longer-term study Ports conducting a separate, longer-term study • In conjunction with Desert Research Institute, SAICIn conjunction with Desert Research Institute, SAIC• Use chemical mass balance on elemental and OC/EC measurementsUse chemical mass balance on elemental and OC/EC measurements

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board

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ConclusionConclusion• Neighborhood assessment objectives:Neighborhood assessment objectives:

– Evaluate neighborhood level emissions, exposures, and health risks in a regionEvaluate neighborhood level emissions, exposures, and health risks in a region

• Wilmington objective is Wilmington objective is refinedrefined assessment assessment– Study is designed to improve modeling methodsStudy is designed to improve modeling methods– Can’t be implemented on a statewide basisCan’t be implemented on a statewide basis

• Statewide ProtocolStatewide Protocol– Describes implementation of NAP methods - Describes implementation of NAP methods - statewidestatewide– Learn from refined studiesLearn from refined studies

• Which sources are important?Which sources are important?• Which modeling approaches are feasible?Which modeling approaches are feasible?• What do model results mean?What do model results mean?

August 27, 2003 California Air Resources Board