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Map produced by FHTET, ILFort Collins, CO on 11-16-2012File: EAB_Risk_2013.mxdProject: EAB Risk Analysis 2013

Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Risk 2013 Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire

EAB Risk 2013LowModerateModerate HighHigh

Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) Risk 2013EAB risk is a function of EAB detection likelihood, detectionuncertainty, and potential introduction locations. Potential introduction locations include campgrounds,rest areas, and other locations identified by state cooperators. Introduction siteswere given a high risk value and then combined with the 2013 EABdetection likelihood composite model. Risk values are classified into:Low, Moderate, Moderate High, and High classes.

Summary of Emerald Ash Borer Risk Assessment 2013

Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire November 16, 2012

The Risk Assessment map for the Emerald Ash Borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, was produced for the Contiguous 48 U.S. (CONUS) at a 1

square kilometer (1 km2) resolution by the U.S. Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) in collaboration with Animal and Plant Health Service, Plant Protection and Quarantine (APHIS PPQ) staff members. The intended use is to develop a risk based sample design for EAB that prioritizes detection and management activities in areas with the highest risk and uncertainty. The Risk Assessment was produced by combining 2002 to 2012 EAB Detection Likelihood and Uncertainty and 2012 Detection Likelihood and Uncertainty models (Downing et al. 2012) by taking the maximum value between the two models at each 1 km cell (Table 1). Potential introduction sites, including campgrounds, rest areas, and other sites identified by state cooperators, were given a high risk rating. The interim surface was masked using a Fraxinus species range map (Withrow 2010) to develop the final EAB Risk Assessment product. For display purposes and ease of interpretation risk values were partitioned into four classes of risk (Table 2). Pest information for EAB was taken from the Exotic Forest Pest (ExFor) website (http://foresthealth.fs.usda.gov/exfor).

Inputs Description and Source Detection Likelihood 2002 to 2012

Detection likelihood surface developed using MaxEnt statistical technique for modeling species distributions (FHTET 2012). Incorporates all known EAB positive locations reported by APHIS and state cooperators from 2002 to 2012. The 2002 to 2012 detection likelihood model puts more emphasis on previously known EAB infested areas.

Detection Likelihood 2012

Detection likelihood surface developed using MaxEnt statistical technique for modeling species distributions (FHTET 2012). Incorporates all known EAB positive locations reported by APHIS and state cooperators for 2012 only. The 2012 detection likelihood model puts more emphasis on the frontier of the EAB expanding range. Detection

Uncertainty 2002 to 2012

Model uncertainty quantifies the variability of the 2002 to 2012 detection likelihood model runs by calculating the standard deviation of the detection likelihood values on a cell by cell basis.

Detection Uncertainty 2012

Model uncertainty quantifies the variability of the 2012 detection likelihood model runs by calculating the standard deviation of the detection likelihood values on a cell by cell basis.

Campgrounds Compiled from Federal campgrounds (USDA APHIS PPQ 2009), U.S. MapData Landmark Points (ESRI 2010), a proprietary campground database acquired from Salesgenie (2010), and state cooperators.

U.S. Rest Areas Rest Areas point locations were compiled from points of interest across the U.S. (POI Factory 2012 http://www.poi-factory.com/node/14656).

Risk Value Risk Class 0 to 0.05 Low 0.05 to 0.25 Moderate 0.25 to 0.50 Moderate

High 0.50 to 1 High

Table 2: Risk Assessment classes Table 1: Inputs used in A. planipennis Risk Assessment 2013

Contractor Support Ian Leinwand John Withrow Point of Contact Marla C. Downing Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET), Forest Health Protection, USDA Forest Service 2150 Centre’ Ave., Bldg A, Suite 331 Fort Collins, CO 80526-8121 Phone: 970-295-5843 mdowning@fs.fed.us

Downing, M. C., I. I. F. Leinwand, P. H. Chaloux, J. R. Withrow, and F. J. Sapio. 2012. Emerald Ash Borer (EAB) “Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire Risk Assessment” U.S. Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET) Forest Health Protection USDA Forest Service, http://www.fs.fed.us/foresthealth/technology/invasives_agrilusplanipennis_riskmaps.shtml Withrow, J. 2010. Production of Urban Host Layers. Deliverable document prepared for USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET), Task Order No: AG-7604-D-09-0542. WAO No: FHTET-10-Pest-Host.