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8/6/2019 128 35 1 Arcelormittal Model Q410
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8/6/2019 128 35 1 Arcelormittal Model Q410
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Terms of reference
These formulas used in the model have been provided as a start-up kit for analysts and they have flexibility
to modify or change these definitions to suit their methodology and comparability,etc.
The segmental information provided contain rounding differences from previous published information.
Definitions
Sales Sales include steel and non-steel sales and related transportation costs
Average steel selling prices Average steel selling prices are based on steel sales alone
Apparent steel selling prices Apparent steel selling prices are sales divided by steel shipments
Steel products steel products are to finished and semi-finished steel products and exclude direct reduced iron, or DRI;
Tonnes or MT tonnes or MT are to metric tonnes and are used in measurements involving iron ore, iron ore pellets,
DRI, hot metal, coke, coal, pig iron and scrap (a metric tonne is equal to 1,000 kilograms or 2,204.62 pounds);
Crude steel crude steel are to the first solid steel product upon solidification of liquid steel, including ingots from
conventional mills and semis (e.g., slab, billet and blooms) from continuous casters;
EBITDA EBITDA is defined as operating income plus depreciation
Ebitda margin Ebitda margin is defined as EBITDA divided by Sales
Operating margin Operating margin is defined as Operating Income divided by Sales
Long-term contracts Long-term contracts are defined as contracts entered into which are in excess of 12 months
Strategic contract Strategic contract is defined as a contract that has business conditions better then open market in long-term
Operating income per tonne Defined as operating income divided by steel shipments
Enterprise Value (EV) Calculated as market capitalization plus net financial debt plus minority interest less investments/others
Invested Capital (IC) Calculated as intangibles assets plus PPE plus inventory, trade accounts receivable and trade account payables
ROIC (%) Calculated as operating income after tax divided by invested capital
RoE (%) Calculated as net income divided by group share of shareholders equity
Market capitalization Calculated as weighted average common shares outstanding multiplied by share price
Metric tonne All shipments figures are provided in metric tonnes
Few suggestions for improving model
Production & Shipment (i) Crude steel production data can be modeled for monitoring and estimation of internal inventory and productiv
(ii) Shipment by market (N. America, exports, S. America) can be modeled for monitoring and estimation of volu
and revenue
(iii) Growth/value added investment published in value plan and quarterly results can be added to model for mon
and estimation of volume and revenue growth
(iv) Macro-economic data and sector data (Automotive, construction) can be added to model for monitoring/ e
of demand and market share
Steel price and currency (i) Future direction on prices can be modeled using steel prices published by external provider (SBB, MB, CRU,
(ii) Currency (BRL, CAD) data can be added to model for monitoring and estimation of selling price and cost in
Sales & revenue (i) Steel sales can be calculated by multiplying steel shipments by average steel price
(ii) Non steel sales can be calculated by making the difference between total sales and steel sales
Raw materials ( i) External sources of information on prices of iron ore, scrap, coal, gas, base metals and other raw mater ials d
can be added to model for monitoring and estimation of variable cost
Employee (i) Employee data can be added to model for monitoring and estimation of productivity improvement and fixed co
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Restatement of the segment figures of prior periods based on the 2008 GMB segment changes
Methodology used:
In each segment the contribution of the entities who changed segment where taken.When leaving the scope the their contribution would be -/- and when entering the scope it would be +/+.
Based on this the delta of the changes by each segment where taken.
The delta of the changes would be added to the originally reported segment information to get the restated figures.
Assumption in the restatement is we will not take into account effect on intercompany eliminations
FCA
IN
OUT Dofasco Pipes & Tubes
Canada Flat
FCE IN Annaba Flat
Skopje
Galati Long
OUT Paul Wurth
LONG IN Annaba Long
Sonasid
Zenica
Canada Flat
Pipes & Tubes
OUT Wire Solutions*
Galati Long
AACIS*** IN Paul Wurth
OUT Annaba
SkopjeSonasid
Zenica
Pipes & Tubes
Stainless No change
AM3S IN Wire Solutions*
Other***
* Wire Solutions consists for ex-Mittal of Gandrange Wire drawing + TrefilEurope.
As data for Gandrange Wire drawing is missing for 2005 & 2006 we have taken based on the 2007 split 10% of full Gandrange contribution a
** Changes in the mining activity have not been reclassed (Tebessa, Prijedor)*** Changes in the trading activity of Duba have not been reclassed
Name change
As from 1.1.10 AM3S changed name to Distribution Solutions
8/6/2019 128 35 1 Arcelormittal Model Q410
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Restatement of the segment figures of prior periods based on the 2008 GMB segment changes
Methodology used:
In each segment the contribution of the entities who changed segment where taken.When leaving the scope the their contribution would be -/- and when entering the scope it would be +/+.
Based on this the delta of the changes by each segment where taken.
The delta of the changes would be added to the originally reported segment information to get the restated figures.
Assumption in the restatement is we will not take into account effect on intercompany eliminations
Disclosure of Aperam in AM earnings release.
Following the shareholder approval undertaken on January 25, 2011 to spin off the Stainless steel business (Aperam) from ArcelorMittal, the results of th
Balance sheet
No change on BS for prior periods presented. Only adjustments to be made for the three months ended December 31, 2010.
Assets and liabilities related to Aperam entities are disclosed on separate line items i.e. assets respectively liabilities held for distribution and are carrie
Profit and loss
The results of the stainless steel operations are shown as discontinued operations for all periods presented in this press release.
Prior period P&L analysis will be recasted excluding contributions of Aperam entities
Ebitda - contribution from Aperam entities to be excluded
Depreciation and amortization contribution from Aperam entities to be excluded
One separate line item in the P/L aggregating all results of discontinued operations related to Aperam and including an impairment loss of X correspon
New appendix on EPS from continuing and discontinued operations shown in the Earnings release
Cashflow
Prior period Cashflow analysis will be recasted excluding contributions of Aperam entities line by line
Cash flows from discontinued operations related to Aperam entities are disclosed separately and aggregated into 3 lines (cashflow from operating, inv
Key Performance Indicators (KPI)
Current and prior period KPI analysis will be recasted excluding contributions of Aperam entities
Analyst model has been recast with quarterly prior period analysis from fourth quarter 2009. Further recast full year data will be available in the 2010 20F
The purpose of this note is to inform analyst of the financial disclosure with respect to the Aperam demerger in the fourth quarter 2010 results due on F
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FLAT CARBON AMERICAS (FCA)
Steel Shipment (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Steel Shipment 7,603 7,398 6878 3931 3,644 3,481 4,162 4,834 5,271 5,346 4,979
Change 7.4% -2.7% -7.0% -42.8% -7.3% -4.5% 19.6% 16.1% 9.0% 1.4% -6.9%
Crude Steel Production (0 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Crude Steel Production 7,980 7,685 7339 3472 3,499 3,332 4,323 5,402 5,679 5,854 5,932
Change 3.0% -3.7% -4.5% -52.7% 0.8% -4.8% 29.7% 25.0% 5.1% 3.1% 1.3%
Selling price (USD/t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Steel products & Other 854 1,011 1,238 1,155 883 795 790 842 841 961 954
Change 0.8% 18.4% 22.5% -6.7% -23.6% -10.0% -0.6% 6.6% -0.1% 14.3% -0.7%
Steel products 746 881 1103 1007 751 665 653 719 722 810 826
Change 2.1% 18.1% 25.2% -8.7% -25.4% -11.5% -1.8% 10.1% 0.4% 12.2% 2.0%
P&L (USDm) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
Sales 6,491 7,480 8518 4542 3,218 2,766 3,287 4,069 4,431 5,135 4,750
Change 8.3% 15.2% 13.9% -46.7% -29.2% -14.0% 18.8% 23.8% 8.9% 15.9% -7.5%
EBITDA 1,284 1,682 2435 433 87 176 332 524 574 1,075 771
Change 12.8% 31.0% 44.8% -82.2% -79.9% 102.3% 88.6% 57.8% 9.5% 87.3% -28.3%
Depreciation and amortisati 404 245 249 330 259 318 249 344 248 256 250
Change 68.3% -39.4% 1.6% 32.5% -21.5% 22.8% -21.7% 38.2% -27.9% 3.2% -2.3%
Operating income / loss 880 1,437 640 -433 -664 -356 83 180 326 819 521Change -2.0% 63.3% -55.5% -167.7% 53.3% -46.4% -123.3% 116.9% 81.1% 151.2% -36.4%
Other operating expenses/exceptional 1546 536 492 214 0
Margin and Ratio 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10
EBITDA Margin (%) 19.8% 22.5% 28.6% 9.5% 2.7% 6.4% 10.1% 12.9% 13.0% 20.9% 16.2%
Operating margin (%) 13.6% 19.2% 7.5% -9.5% -20.6% -12.9% 2.5% 4.4% 7.4% 15.9% 11.0%
Cash cost (USD/t) 685 784 884 1,045 859 744 710 733 732 759 799
Operating income per ton (U 116 194 93 -110 -182 -102 20 37 62 153 105
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FLAT CARBON EUROPE (FCE)
Steel Shipment (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Steel Shipment 9,399 9,882 8211 6020 4,814 4,974 5,601 6,408 6,856 7,5
Change 3.9% 5.1% -16.9% -26.7% -20.0% 3.3% 12.6% 14.4% 7.0% 10
Crude Steel Production (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Crude Steel Production 9,653 10,062 9476 5147 4,565 4,059 6,718 7,410 7,406 8,5
Change 18.0% 4.2% -5.8% -45.7% -11.3% -11.1% 65.5% 10.3% -0.1% 14
Selling price (USD/t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Steel products & Other 990 1,198 1,234 1,168 964 913 869 926 857
Change -3.1% 21.0% 3.0% -5.4% -17.4% -5.4% -4.8% 6.6% -7.5% 2
Steel products 897 1,081 1125 956 838 797 759 807 757
Change 3.1% 20.5% 4.1% -15.0% -12.3% -4.9% -4.8% 6.3% -6.2% 2
P&L (USDm) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Sales 9,302 11,837 10132 7029 4,642 4,539 4,866 5,934 5,875 6,5
Change 0.7% 27.3% -14.4% -30.6% -34.0% -2.2% 7.2% 21.9% -1.0% 12
EBITDA 1,525 2,146 1821 956 462 517 271 696 469
Change 21.2% 40.7% -15.1% -47.5% -51.7% 11.9% -47.6% 156.8% -32.6% 18
Depreciation and amortisation 380 468 514 562 323 316 439 427 370
Change -8.2% 23.2% 9.8% 9.3% -42.5% -2.2% 38.9% -2.7% -13.3% -8Operating income / loss 1,145 1,678 1,307 -1,357 -184 -418 -168 269 99
Change 35.7% 46.6% -22.1% -203.8% -86.4% 127.2% -59.8% -260.1% -63.2% 119
Other operating expenses/exceptional 1751 323 619 0
Margin and Ratio 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
EBITDA Margin (%) 16.4% 18.1% 18.0% 13.6% 10.0% 11.4% 5.6% 11.7% 8.0% 8
Operating margin (%) 12.3% 14.2% 12.9% -19.3% -4.0% -9.2% -3.5% 4.5% 1.7% 3
Cash cost (USD/t) 827 981 1,012 1,009 868 809 820 817 789
Operating income per ton (USD/t) 122 170 159 -225 -38 -84 -30 42 14
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ASIA, AFRICA & CIS (AACIS)
Steel Shipment (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Steel Shipment 3,895 3,876 3335 2190 2,754 2,897 3,043 3,075 3,204 3,4
Change -6.4% -0.5% -14.0% -34.3% 25.8% 5.2% 5.0% 1.1% 4.2% 6
Crude Steel Production (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Crude Steel Production 4,346 4,390 4258 2124 2,903 3,227 3,382 3,899 3,684 3,8
Change -5.1% 1.0% -3.0% -50.1% 36.7% 11.2% 4.8% 15.3% -5.5% 5
Selling price (USD/t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Steel products & Other 754 1,016 1,258 942 599 592 653 740 670 7
Change -22.2% 34.8% 23.8% -25.1% -36.4% -1.3% 10.3% 13.3% -9.3% 12
Steel products 617 855 1070 638 482 474 514 550 557 6
Change -0.8% 38.6% 25.1% -40.4% -24.5% -1.7% 8.4% 7.0% 1.3% 12
P&L (USDm) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Sales 2,936 3,938 4196 2063 1,651 1,715 1,987 2,274 2,148 2,5
Change -27.2% 34.1% 6.6% -50.8% -20.0% 3.9% 15.9% 14.4% -5.5% 19
EBITDA 685 1,385 1635 280 184 273 235 310 275 4
Change -14.2% 102.2% 18.1% -82.9% -34.3% 48.4% -13.9% 31.9% -11.3% 75
Depreciation and amortisation 125 130 146 148 130 135 139 143 142
Change -12.6% 4.0% 12.3% 1.4% -12.2% 3.8% 3.0% 2.9% -0.7% 2Operating income / loss 560 1,255 1,489 -159 -18 20 96 167 133 3
Change -14.5% 124.1% 18.6% -110.7% -88.7% -211.1% 380.0% 74.0% -20.4% 154.
Other operating expenses/exceptional 291 72 118 0
Margin and Ratio 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
EBITDA Margin (%) 23.3% 35.2% 39.0% 13.6% 11.1% 15.9% 11.8% 13.6% 12.8% 18
Operating margin (%) 19.1% 31.9% 35.5% -7.7% -1.1% 1.2% 4.8% 7.3% 6.2% 13
Cash cost (USD/t) 578 659 768 814 533 498 576 639 585 6
Operating income per ton (USD/t) 144 324 446 -73 -7 7 32 54 42
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Distribution Solutions (formerly known as Steel Soultions and Services)
Steel Shipment (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Steel Shipment 5,497 5,690 4272 3684 3,874 4,546 4,207 4,167 4,353 4,6
Change 1.1% 3.5% -24.9% -13.8% 5.2% 17.3% -7.5% -1.0% 4.5% 5
Crude Steel Production (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Crude Steel Production n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Change n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
Selling price (USD/t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Steel products & Other 1,035 1,243 1,418 1,169 866 756 772 837 802
Change 3.4% 20.0% 14.1% -17.6% -25.9% -12.7% 2.1% 8.5% -4.2% 8
P&L (USDm) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Sales 5,691 7,070 6059 4306 3,354 3,435 3,246 3,489 3,492 3,9
Change 4.6% 24.2% -14.3% -28.9% -22.1% 2.4% -5.5% 7.5% 0.1% 14
EBITDA 204 342 390 187 -19 -116 -1 39 57
Change 4.1% 67.6% 14.0% -52.1% -110.2% 510.5% -99.1% -4000.0% 46.2% 228
Depreciation and amortisation 47 57 47 50 46 62 59 189 53
Change 4.4% 21.3% -17.5% 6.4% -8.0% 34.8% -4.8% 220.3% -72.0% -15
Operating income / loss 157 285 343 -580 -170 -286 -60 230 4
Change 4.0% 81.5% 20.4% -269.1% -70.7% 68.2% -79.0% -483.3% -98.3% 3450
Other operating expenses/exceptional 717 105 108 0 -380 0
Margin and Ratio 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
EBITDA Margin (%) 3.6% 4.8% 6.4% 4.3% -0.6% -3.4% 0.0% 1.1% 1.6% 4
Operating margin (%) 2.8% 4.0% 5.7% -13.5% -5.1% -8.3% -1.8% 6.6% 0.1% 3
Cash cost (USD/t) 998 1,182 1,327 1,118 871 781 772 828 789
Operating income per ton (USD/t) 29 50 80 -157 -44 -63 -14 55 1
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Adjustment
Stainless Steel not recast for these periods Recas
Shipment (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2QSteel Shipment FCA 7,603 7,398 6,878 3,931 3,644 3,481 4,162 4,834 5,271 5,
Steel Shipment FCE 9,399 9,882 8,211 6,020 4,814 4,974 5,601 6,408 6,856 7,
Steel Shipment LC 7,780 8,097 6,687 4,551 4,423 5,261 5,025 5,228 5,694 5,
Steel Shipment AACIS 3,895 3,876 3,335 2,190 2,754 2,897 3,043 3,075 3,204 3,
Steel Shipment Stainless 528 578 487 365 315 363 354
Steel Shipment total 29,205 29,831 25,598 17,057 15,950 16,976 18,185 19,545 21,025 22,
Change 4.9% 2.1% -14.2% -33.4% -6.5% 6.4% 7.1% 7.5% 7.6% 6
Crude Steel (000t) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Crude Steel Production FCA 7,980 7,685 7,339 3,472 3,499 3,332 4,323 5,402 5,679 5,
Crude Steel Production FCE 9,653 10,062 9,476 5,147 4,565 4,059 6,718 7,410 7,406 8,
Crude Steel Production LC 7,099 7,488 6,871 3,740 3,947 4,857 4,741 5,356 5,738 6,
Crude Steel Production AACIS 4,346 4,390 4,258 2,124 2,903 3,227 3,382 3,899 3,684 3,
Crude Steel Production Stainless 656 656 509 376 317 387 460
Crude Steel Productiont total 29,734 30,281 28,453 14,859 15,231 15,862 19,624 22,067 22,507 24,
Change 7.2% 1.8% -6.0% -47.8% 2.5% 4.1% 23.7% 12.4% 2.0% 7
P&L (USDm) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q
Sales FCA 6,491 7,480 8,518 4,542 3,218 2,766 3,287 4,069 4,431 5,
Sales FCE 9,302 11,837 10,132 7,029 4,642 4,539 4,866 5,934 5,875 6,
Sales LC 7,672 9,878 9,538 5,180 3,816 4,045 4,328 4,578 4,768 5,
Sales AACIS 2,936 3,938 4,196 2,063 1,651 1,715 1,987 2,274 2,148 2,
Sales Stainless 2,324 2,639 2,059 1,319 946 974 1,061
Sales AMDS 5,691 7,070 6,059 4,306 3,354 3,435 3,246 3,489 3,492 3,
Sales Other & Elimination -4607 -5002 -5,304 -2,350 -2,504 -2,298 -2,605 -2,910 -3,286 -3,
Sales total 29,809 3 7,840 35,198 22,089 15,123 15,176 16,170 17,434 17,428 20,
Change 6.5% 26.9% -7.0% -37.2% -31.5% 0.4% 6.5% 7.8% 0.0% 15
EBITDA FCA 1,284 1,682 2,435 433 87 176 332 524 574 1,
EBITDA FCE 1,525 2,146 1,821 956 462 517 271 696 469
EBITDA LC 1,414 2,137 2,258 869 268 327 589 482 485
EBITDA AACIS 685 1,385 1,635 280 184 273 235 310 275
EBITDA Stainless 259 390 249 36 -5 17 133
EBITDA AMDS 204 342 390 187 -19 -116 -1 39 57
EBITDA Other & Elimination -327 -36 -208 47 -94 27 30 5 -160 -
EBITDA total 5,044 8,046 8,580 2,808 883 1,221 1,589 2,056 1,700 2,
Change 4.1% 59.5% 6.6% -67.3% -68.6% 38.3% 30.1% 29.4% -17.3% 65
Depreciation & impairment FCA 404 245 249 330 259 318 249 344 248
Depreciation & impairment FCE 380 468 514 562 323 316 439 427 370
Depreciation & impairment LC 272 491 345 617 249 272 297 561 263
Depreciation & impairment AACIS 125 130 146 148 130 135 139 143 142
Depreciation & impairment Stainless 93 82 93 75 66 78 82
Depreciation & impairment AMDS 47 57 47 50 46 62 59 189 53
Depreciation & impairment Other & Elimin 109 -48 20 49 45 47 19 59 48
Depreciation & impairmen total 1,430 1,425 1,414 1,831 1,118 1,228 1,284 1,723 1,124 1,
Change -8.2% -0.3% -0.8% 29.5% -38.9% 9.8% 4.6% 34.2% -34.8% 7
Operating income FCA 880 1,437 640 -433 -664 -356 83 180 326
Operating income FCE 1,145 1,678 1,307 -1,357 -184 -418 -168 269 99
Operating income LC 1,142 1,646 1,760 -394 -191 -51 292 -79 222
Operating income AACIS 560 1,255 1,489 -159 -18 20 96 167 133
Operating income Stainless 166 308 156 -247 -169 -64 51 0 0
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CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF INCOME
(USDm) 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q
Sales 29,809 37,840 35,198 22,089 15,123 15,176 16,170 17,4
EBITDA 5,044 8,046 8,580 2,808 883 1,221 1,589 2,0
- EBITDA margin % 16.9% 21.3% 24.4% 12.7% 5.8% 8.0% 9.8% 11.8
Depreciation and impairment 1,430 1,425 1,414 1,831 1,118 1,228 1,284 1,7
Other operating expenses 1,699 4,443 1,248 1,177 -3
Operating Income (loss) 3,614 6,621 5,467 -3,466 -1,483 -1,184 305 7
- Operating margin % 12.1% 17.5% 15.5% -15.7% -9.8% -7.8% 1.9% 4.1
Other income (expense) - net
Income from equity method investments 329 552 386 386 -153 11 99 1
Income from equity method investments and other 329 552 386 386 -153 11 99 1
Financing income (costs) - net -736 -49 -923 -644 -585 -920 -385 -9
Income before taxes and non-controlling interest 3,207 7,124 4,930 -3,724 -2,221 -2,093 19 -1
Income tax expense 596 933 695 -1126 -1,088 -1,239 -899 -12
- Apparent tax rate % 18.6% 13.1% 14.1% 30.2% 49.0% 59.2% -4731.6% 1243.0
Income from continuing operations including minorit 2,611 6,191 4,235 -2,598 -1,133 -854 918 1,1
Discontinued operations
Income (loss) from continuing operation 2,611 6,191 4,235 -2,598 -1,133 -854 918 1,0
Non controlling interest 240 352 414 34 -70 -62 15
Net income (loss) attributable to owners of the paren 2,371 5,839 3,821 -2,632 -1,063 -792 903 1,1
Discontinued operationsWeighted average common shares outstanding (in million 1,403 1,390 1,371 1,365 1,366 1,395 1,508 1,5
Diluted weighted average common shares outstanding (in 1,403 1,394 1,375 1,365 1,367 1,396 1,597 1,5
Basic earnings per common share (USD) 2.58 4.76 3.99 -2.54 -1.09 -0.85 0.20 0.
Diluted earnings per common share (USD) 2.58 4.75 3.98 -2.54 -1.08 -0.85 0.22 0.
Continued operations
Weighted average common shares outstanding (in million 1,403 1,390 1,371 1,365 1,366 1,395 1,508 1,5
Diluted weighted average common shares outstanding (in 1,403 1,394 1,375 1,365 1,367 1,396 1,597 1,5
Basic earnings per common share (USD) 0.42 0.67 0.51 -0.82 -0.80 -0.89 -0.60 0.
Diluted earnings per common share (USD) 0.42 0.67 0.51 -0.82 -0.80 -0.89 -0.53 0.
Total EPSWeighted average common shares outstanding (in million 1,403 1,390 1,371 1,365 1,366 1,395 1,508 1,5
Diluted weighted average common shares outstanding (in 1,403 1,394 1,375 1,365 1,367 1,396 1,597 1,5
Basic earnings per common share (USD) 1.69 4.20 2.79 -1.93 -0.78 -0.57 0.60 0.
Diluted earnings per common share (USD) 1.69 4.19 2.78 -1.93 -0.78 -0.57 0.60 0.
Base Dividend per share (USD) 0.325 0.325 0.325 0.325 0.1875 0.1875 0.1875 0.18
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CASH FLOW STATEMENT
Recasted
(USDm) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Net Income 7,973 10,369 9,400 214 3,246
Minority interest 1,488 1,482 1,040 -43 89
Depreciation 3,448 4,571 6,100 5,126 4,920
Other and change in working capital net of effects from acquisition -2,624 112 -1,888 1,721 -4,485
Net cash (used in) provided by operating activities - Discontinued operations 0 0 0 260 245
Net cash provided by operating activities 10,285 16,534 14,652 7,278 4,015
Purchase of property, plant and equipment (CAPEX) -4,638 -5,448 -5,531 -2,669 -3,308
Other investing activity -137 -6,256 -6,897 -10 -29
Net cash used in investing activities - Discontinued operations 0 0 0 -105 -101
Net Cash used in investing activities -4,775 -11,704 -12,428 -2,784 -3,438
Dividends paid -2,480 -2,269 -2,576 -1,334 -1,257
Proceed (payments) from payable to banks and long term debt -718 1,435 4,873 -8,571 1,992
Share buyback 0 -2,604 -4,440 -234 0
Other financing activities
Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities - Discontinued operations 0 0 0 -32 -48
Net cash (used in) provided by financing activities -3,198 -3,438 -2,143 -10,171 687
Effect of exchange rate changes on cash & Other financing activities 207 655 -365 4,020 -853
Transferred to held for sale -123
Change in cash and cash equivalent 2,519 2,047 -284 -1,657 288
Free cash-flow (based on maintenance and growth CAPEX) 5,647 11,086 9,121 4,609 707
Comments and additional information on cash-flow
Other and change in working capital net of effects from acquisition (i) Working capital change to evolve with change in turnover and cost
(ii) Working capital requirement in % of sales and cost of good sold to
working capital optimization
Purchase of property, plant and equipment (CAPEX) (i) In 2010 CAPEX to be approx USD 4.0 bn with USD 0.5 bn for grow
(i) In 2011 CAPEX to be approx USD 5.0 bn with USD 1.0 bn for grow
Other investing activity (i) Resulting from acquisition and share buy-back
Dividends paid (i) Base dividend per share of USD 1.30 in 2007; USD 1.50 in 2008; U
Potential improvement for advanced model (using fact book, investor day presentations and quarterly earning release)
Cash flow statement (i) Quarterly cash-flow statement can be added to model for improving
Proceed (payments) from payable to banks and long term debt (i) Information about group financing initiative can be added to model f
in long term financial debt and cash
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BALANCE SHEET Recasted
W1 HFS
(USDm) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010
Non current assets 72,804 88,297 88,674 94,890 92,969 88,229
Intangible asset 10,782 15,031 16,119 17,034 15,733 14,373
Property, plant and equipment 54,696 61,994 60,755 60,385 57,392 54,344
Investment & Other 7,326 11,272 11,800 17,471 19,844 19,512
Current assets & working capital 28,645 31,337 33,913 22,131 23,910 29,419
Inventories, trade receivables & trade payable 17,290 17,292 20,977 11,909 13,190 12,052
Other assets 5,209 5,940 5,349 4,213 4,308 4,160
Cash & cash equivalents 6,146 8,105 7,587 6,009 6,412 6,289
Assets held for distribution 6,918
Shareholders' equity 50,191 61,535 59,230 65,398 66,100 66,100
Group share 42,127 56,685 55,198 61,045 62,430 62,430Non-controlling interest 8,064 4,850 4,032 4,353 3,670 3,670
Non current liabilities 37,415 39,881 43,098 38,769 34,866 34,081
Interest bearing liabilities 21,645 22,085 25,667 20,677 19,413 19,292
Provision and other 15,770 17,796 17,431 18,092 15,453 14,789
Current liabilities (excluding trade payable) 13,843 18,218 20,259 12,854 15,913 17,467
Interest bearing liabilities 4,922 8,542 8,409 4,135 6,783 6,716
Other 8,921 9,676 11,850 8,719 9,130 8,714
Liabilities held for distribution 2,037
Invested Capital (Intang assets+PPE+OWC) 82,768 94,317 97,851 89,328 86,315 80,769
Net financial debt 20,421 22,522 26,489 18,803 19,784 19,719
Comments and additional information on balance sheet
Non Current Asset (i) Intangible asset to remain stable expect acquisition and impairment test
(ii) Property, plant and equipment to increase with CAPEX and acquisition (consolidate
depreciation
(iii) Investments to increase with acquisition
(iv) includes assets held for sale following Aperam demerger on 25th January 2011. Ad
Current assets & working capital (i) Inventories, trade receivables & trade payable (WCR) to evolve with change of turno
(as reported in cash-flow statement)
(ii) Cash & cash equivalent to evolve according to cash-flow statement and to remain b
(cost optimization versus liquidity)
Shareholders' equity (i) Group share to increase with net earning & capital increase and to be reduced by di
(ii) Minority interests to increase with net earning and increasing value of consolidated
Non current liabilities (i) Interest bearing liabilities to evolve according to cash-flow statement and to remain
(cost optimization versus liquidity)
(ii) Provision and other mainly related to pension and employee benefit to evolve with n
and average age and performance of assets at defined benefit plans
(iv) includes liabilities held for sale following Aperam demerger on 25th January 2011. A
Potential improvement for advanced model (using fact book, investor day presentations and quarterly earning release)
Balance sheet (i) Quarterly balance sheet can be added to model for improving monitoring and estima
(ii) Balance sheet model can be significantly more detailed for improving monitoring an
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Page 14 of 1464099794.xls
Multiples
FINANCIAL AND MARKET RATIO
Financial ratios 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EBITDA Margin (%) 17.2% 18.4% 19.6% 9.2% 10.9%
Operating margin (%) 13.3% 14.1% 9.8% -2.4% 4.6%
Net margin (%) 9.0% 9.9% 7.5% 0.3% 3.7%
Cash-flow from operation margin (%) 11.6% 15.7% 11.7% 11.9% 5.1%
Cash cost (USD/t) 663 786 988 796 818
Operating margin (USD/t) 107 136 120 -21 42
Turnover / Invested capital (x) 1.07 1.12 1.28 0.68 0.90
ROIC (Operating income / Invested capital) (%) 14.3% 15.7% 12.5% -1.6% 4.2%
ROIC post tax (%) 12.2% 12.5% 11.3% 0.1% 7.5%
RoE (%) 18.9% 18.3% 17.0% 0.3% 4.7%
Gearing (%) 41% 37% 45% 29% 30%
Net Debt / EBITDA (x) 1.3 1.2 1.1 3.4 2.3
Net Debt / EV (%) 29% 18% 50% 27% 35%
Market ratios2006 2007 2008 2009E 2010E
Average and recent price (USD/share) 35.45 77.35 24.59 45.00 35.00
Market capitalization (USDm) 49,027 108,213 34,008 65,025 52,920
Enterprise Value (USDm) 70,186 124,313 52,729 70,710 56,530
Book value par share (USD) 30.42 40.46 39.83 42.22 39.66
EPS reported (USD) 5.77 7.41 6.80 0.11 1.93
EPS diluted (USD) 5.76 7.40 6.78 0.11 1.71
Cash-flow from operation per share (USD) 7.43 11.80 10.57 5.03 2.55
Base dividend (USD) n/a 1.30 1.30 0.75 0.19
Base dividend payout on n-1 (%) n/a 23% 18% 11% 170%
P/BV (x) 1.17 1.91 0.62 1.07 0.88
P/E (x) 6.2 10.5 3.6 409.1 20.5
P/CFPS (x) 4.8 6.6 2.3 8.9 13.7EV/Sales (x) 0.79 1.18 0.42 1.16 0.72
EV/IC (x) 0.85 1.32 0.54 0.79 0.65
EV/EBITDA (x) 4.60 6.41 2.15 12.63 6.63
Net yield (%) n/a 1.7% 5.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Potential improvement for advanced model
Valuation model (i) Other multiples can be added to model (EV/EBIT, REP, EVA, MVA
(ii) Other valuation methodology can be added to model (DCF)