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18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner Zentrum für Soziale Innovation • Centre for Social Innovation

18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

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Page 1: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004

Vienna

Keynote Session 1

iaps EAST

Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects

Josef Hochgerner Zentrum für Soziale Innovation • Centre for Social Innovation

Page 2: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

The big challenges … and the potential of Europe

„NEW FRONTIERS“ FOR EUROPE ?

• Political integration• Economic development• Cultural diversity• Social cohesion

• Constitutional Processes• Human & growth potential, purchasing power• Languages, exchange, mutual respect• Reduction and closing of gaps

Two topical issues for debate:

• How to reach the “tipping point”, winning people‘s hearts and minds?

• Does “Europe” need and acknowledge a “founding myth”?

Page 3: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

Stages and context of the emergence of the EU25+

1945 The ruins of post-WW-II Europe: Incubator of a new Europe?1948 OEEC - Organisation for European Economic Co-operation1949 European Council - Oldest political body in Europe (45 MS)1951 Six countries coal and steel treaty - initiating a peace project1957 Treaty of Rome - European Economic Community 1960 EFTA - European Free Trade Association1979 First enlargement (DK, IE, UK) and direct elections to EP1981 Second enlargement (GR)1986 Third enlargement (ES, PT) and Act to form EEA (until 1993)1992 Treaty of Maastricht to change EEC into EU1995 Forth enlargment (AT, FI, SE)1997 Treaty of Amsterdam1999 Euro-zone (11 MS, GR joins 2001; DK, SE and UK opt out)2000 Treaty of Nice to prepare for “Eastern enlargement”2002 Euro implemented as actual currency in 12 MS2004 Fifth enlargement (10 new MS) 2004 EU Council agrees on a “European Constitution”

THE EUROPEAN UNION IN EUROPE

Page 4: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

EU25 accept the Constitution as planned until 2006• Highway toward further enlargement, economic, cultural and social developments, EU takes on role as global player• Constitutional framework open to develop into a “Transnational Entity”, or “Con-Federation” or “Federation”

EU25 accept the Constitution until 2010• All developments possible at slower pace

A majority of MS accept the Constitution, some opt out• Slower enlargement possible, less ecomomic, cultural and social inclusion• A confederation of some MS may emerge, most likely those participating in the EMU

Implementation of the Constitution fails• Major set-back, ecomomic policies will prevail• EU may be kept busy to regulate internal polarity and conflicts

SCENARIOS OF EU-POLITICS

Page 5: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

GREAT EXPECTATIONS

Most relevant pro‘s and con‘s when people vote for joining the EU

• Economic prosperity and employment (farming, industry, services …)

• Regional development

• Mobility, infrastructure, transport

• Security and social security

• Democracy, values and identity

- modernisation, solidarity, participation, deliberation

- “symbolic policies” (self-determination, representation)

Page 6: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

Currently agreed limit: 1,24 % of GDP (all MS)

• planned 2006: 1,11 % (overall some 120 bn Euro)

• planned 2013: 1,23 % (forecast: ca. 160 bn Euro)

• few instruments (structural funds and their programmes, RTD-framework programme, programmes and tenders of the various DGs)

• Co-financing: a good method with several national restrictions

SMALL BUDGETS

Page 7: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

The new Member States (MS)• … mainly comprise a variety of forms of post-communist capitalism• … need industrial re-orientation and catching-up in new environments of governance and knowledge based economies

Scientific principle to adopt effective projects• “Technological congruence” (M. Abramovitz, Stanford)• Structural similarity in factor utilisation, markets, organisational modes …• Catching-up depends on social capacities to absorb new knowledge, technologies, infrastructures• Key areas to improve such capacities: education, training, regulations

Structural interventions vs. crisis driven interventions• Proper response to restricted budgets• Crisis driven interventions may address (ad hoc) large parts of populations• Structural interventions in education (Bologna process), research (ERA), capacity and institution building (by means of structural funds and national support ) require long term perspectives and rely on “trickling down”

Trickling down may be facilitated by: - “Technological congruence” - Train-the-trainer concepts and support for (Life Long) Learning - Involvement of civil society organisations - Connecting sub-systems education, labour markets, indigenous development

STRUCTURAL INTERVENTIONS

Page 8: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

Three objectives for further development of the European Union

• to improve and extend the European Social Model

• to transcend the era of the nation state

• to take on the role as a global player

CONCLUDING OUTLOOK

Page 9: 18th iaps conference EVALUATION IN PROGRESS: July 7 - 10, 2004 Vienna Keynote Session 1 iaps EAST Europe Extended Scenarios and Projects Josef Hochgerner

Josef HochgernerCentre for Social Innovation

Linke Wienzeile 246A - 1150 Vienna

Tel. ++43.1.4950442Fax. ++43.1.4950442-40

email: [email protected]://www.zsi.at