1.A.3.a - Civil Aviation&

1C1.a – Aviation Bunkers

Scott McKibbon, Sr. Program EngineerManager – Transportation Sector

Greenhouse Gas DivisionEnvironment Canada

October 4th, 2007

2 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Domestic and International Aviation fuel sales

Sector Summary Tables

Aviation Model

Aviation Turbo fuel sales reported in the RESD

1st Generation MethodologyFuel Sales Based

Early Inventories used fuel sales reported in National Energy Balance (RESD) to split International from Domestic

Sales to Domestic Airlines were allocated to Civil (Domestic) Aviation, Sales to Foreign considered International (Bunker) travel.

1st Generation Methodology last used for 2004 Submission (1990-2002 Inventory)

3 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Line #33 Canadian Airlines

1.A.3.a Civil Aviation

1C1.a Aviation Bunkers

Line #34 Foreign Airlines

1C1.a Aviation Bunkers

Line #45 Public Administration

1.A.3.a Civil Aviation

Line #46 Commercial and Other Institutional

1.A.3.a Civil Aviation

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Turbo Fuel MethodologyTurbo-fuel sales reported in the RESD

Need Method to split

4 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Domestic and International Aviation fuel sales

Sector Summary Tables

Aviation Model

Aviation Turbo fuel sales reported in the RESD

Enplaned and deplaned passengers

Regional allocates fuel sold to Canadian carries for domestic flights

Tonne kilometres traveled by Canadian Carriers

Calculate the percentage of the fuel sold to Canadian carriers used for domestic travel

2nd Generation MethodologyTonne-kilometer (freight) Based

5 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Turbo Fuel MethodologyTonne kilometres traveled by Canadian Carriers

Tonne Kilometres are reported by Statistics Canada for Canadian Carriers by sector (Dom/Int/Other Int) and include both passenger and freight activity

Method developed by Transport Canada for Revenue Canada to estimate the tax revenue expected as a result of fuel sold to Canadian Carriers for domestic flights

Assumption is that 50% of international tonne kilometres flown by Canadian Airlines uses domestically purchased fuel

6 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Turbo Fuel Methodology

Enplaned and deplaned passenger activity by sector is reported by Statistics Canada

Regionally allocates domestic portion of the fuel sold to Canadian carriers to individual Canadian provinces for domestic reporting

Enplaned and deplaned passengers

7 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

1st vs. 2nd Generation Methodology

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

GH

G E

mis

sio

ns

(kt

CO

2 eq

)

Old Domestic

New Domestic

New International

Old International

8 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Validation of Results

Comparing our results with SAGE to verify our initial assumption on the percentage of international Tonne-Kilometres flown by Canadian Carriers on domestically purchased fuel (Initial assumption was 50%)

SAGE (System for Assessing Aviation's Global Emissions) was developed by the FAA to predict aircraft fuel burn and emissions for civil aviation globally.

Adjusting from 50% to 69% minimized difference between initial results and SAGE output.

9 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Civil Aviation (Domestic)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

CO

2 (k

t)

SAGE EC (50%) EC (69%)

10 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Aviation Bunkers (International)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

CO

2 (k

t)

SAGE EC (50%) EC (69%)

11 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Total Aviation (Domestic + International)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Year

CO

2 (k

t)

SAGE EC (50%) EC (69%)

12 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Domestic and International Aviation fuel sales

Sector Summary Tables

Aviation ModelAviation fuel sales reported in the RESD

EFs from Jaques(1992)

Aviation Gasoline Methodology Overview

13 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Aviation Gasoline MethodologyAviation fuel sales reported in the RESD

Line #33 Canadian Airlines

1.A.3.a Civil Aviation

Line #34 Foreign Airlines

1C1.a Aviation Bunkers

Line #45 Public Administration

1.A.3.a Civil Aviation

Line #46 Commercial and Other Institutional

1.A.3.a Civil Aviation

14 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Tier 3a Model based on flight movement data is under development.

CH4 and N2O emission Factors will be reviewed with the implementation of the new model.

3rd Generation MethodologyOrigin-Destination Based

15 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Barriers experienced populating Tier 3a model Available sources of O-D data (TC, NAV, OAG) Canadian Airport tower management transferred from

Gov’t to Private Agency (Nov 1996) Known shortfalls (Pro’s/Con’s) of these sources Cost vs. benefit of data source procurement

3rd Generation MethodologyOrigin-Destination Based

16 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Civil Aviation1.A.3.a

Describe current Data set (TC 1981-1996) Describe omissions and potential errors Describe decisions to fill out/in database attributes

and identify success with process

3rd Generation MethodologyOrigin-Destination Based

17 October 4th, 2007 1.A.3 - Fuel Combustion – Transport Emissions

Questions

Scott McKibbon, Sr. Program EngineerManager – Transportation Sector

Greenhouse Gas DivisionEnvironment Canada

scott.mckibbon@ec.gc.ca1-819-953-1657