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SFSA 2009 Forecast
Roy RouxChairman – SFSA Marketing Committee
2008 SFSA Annual Meeting
Industry ForecastSegment (tons) (tons) (%) (tons) (%)
Railroad 650,627 592,070 -9 532,863 -10Mining 155,870 168,340 8 185,174 10Construction 116,424 121,081 4 124,713 3Trucks 20,736 18,662 -10 20,529 10
Valves 44,100 48,510 10 52,391 8Pumps 12,679 13,693 8 15,062 10Oil Field 25,960 28,556 10 31,412 10Military 11,556 12,712 10 14,873 17
Other Markets 79,924 83,121 4 83,121 0
Total 1,117,875 1,086,745 3 1,060,137 -2
Business Impact Factors2009
• Subprime lending and banking crisis causing financial uncertainty.
• High energy and materials prices driving strong demand for steel containing capital goods. It is causing consumer inflation and pain.
• Transportation and infrastructure investment likely to add to demand in future.
• Slowing growth in global economy may result in lower prices and activity.
• Exchange rate favors US producers.
Moody’s Aaa Bond Yield
U.S. Dollar vs. Brazilian Real
U.S. Dollar vs. Euro
U.S. Dollar vs. Chinese Yaun
-40.0-30.0-20.0-10.0
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.0
Jan-0
0Ja
n-01
Jan-0
2Ja
n-03
Jan-0
4Ja
n-05
Jan-0
6Ja
n-07
Book
Ship
Backlog
SFSA Trend Cards 2008
Steel Casting Capacity
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Thou
sand
Ton
s
production capacity
SFSA Forecast and Trend Results
-30.0
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
YoY
% c
hang
e
trendsforecast
• Railroad industry– 2007 estimated 651,000 tons– 2008 projected 592,000 tons– 2009 forecast 533,000 tons
• Railcar deliveries– 2007 actual 63,200 units– 2008 projected 51,500 units– 2009 forecast 41,000 units
• Unsettled market and US economic slowdown• Carloads are flat • Cost of steel makes some buyers wait for better pricing
Railroad Forecast
-10%
Freight Cars
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Oct-95 Jul-98 Apr-01 Jan-04 Oct-06 Jul-09
OrdersDeliveries
Mining Forecast
• Mining castings– 2007 estimated 156,000 tons– 2008 projected 168,000 tons– 2009 forecast 185,000 tons
• Global commodity demand up providing support for high prices
• Weak dollar makes US competitive• Equipment purchases have long lead
times - capacity constrained
+10%
Copper Prices
Nickel Prices
Coal Prices
U.S. Monthly Coal Production
US Coal ProductionFrom www.nma.org
1020
1040
1060
1080
1100
1120
1140
1160
1180
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
Coa
l (m
illio
n sh
ort t
ons)
Construction Forecast
• Construction equipment– 2007 estimated 116,000 tons– 2008 projected 121,000 tons– 2009 forecast 125,000 tons
• US market down but exports with weak dollar and global demand will support increase in orders
• Infrastructure investment will require equipment
+3%
Truck Forecast
• Trucks Class 8– 2007 estimated 21,000 tons– 2008 projected 19,000 tons– 2009 forecast 20,500 tons
• Truck deliveries in NA– 2007 estimated 205,000 units– 2008 projected 180,000 units– 2009 forecast 200,000 units
• New coming emission regulations should spur demand
+10%
Frei
ghtlin
er
Ster
ling
Mac
k
Inte
rnat
iona
l
Kenw
orth
Pete
rbilt
Volv
o
Wes
tern
Sta
r
Oth
er
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
MANUFACTURER
HEAVY DUTY TRUCK SALES 07 vs 08
1 Jan ~ 30 Jun 07 1 Jan ~ 30 Jun 08
UN
ITS
SOLD
Valve Forecast
• Valve industry– 2007 estimated 44,000 tons– 2008 projected 48,500 tons– 2009 forecast 52,000 tons
• Complex valves are returning to US for making
• More specialty alloy products
+8%
Total Valve Shipments
0
500
1000
1500
20002500
3000
3500
4000
450019
95
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
$ in
mill
ions
From Valve Manufacturers Association
Pump Forecast • Pump industry
– 2007 estimated 12,500 tons– 2008 projected 13,500 tons– 2009 forecast 15,000 tons
• Work is returning from overseas• Pipeline construction increasing demand• Nuclear international business strong
+10%
Oil Field Forecast
• Oil field equipment– 2007 estimated 26,000 tons– 2008 projected 28,500 tons– 2009 forecast 31,500 tons
• Price of oil remains high stimulating exploration
• There may be changes in policy that will allow more exploration
+10%
Crude Oil PricesFrom eia.doe.gov
Oil Prices Spot
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/3/
97
1/3/
98
1/3/
99
1/3/
00
1/3/
01
1/3/
02
1/3/
03
1/3/
04
1/3/
05
1/3/
06
1/3/
07
1/3/
08
all countriesUnited States
US and Canada Rig CountFrom Baker Hughes
Baker Hughes NA Rig Count
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
CanadaUS
Military Forecast
Worn out equipment and export sales should stimulate demand
+17%
Other Market Forecast
• Other markets– 2007 estimated 80,000 tons– 2008 projected 83,000 tons– 2009 forecast 83,000 tons
0%
Forecast Summary
• All segments except railroad and other forecast good growth
• Railroad decline impacts total forecast
1,087,000 tons2008
1,060,000 tons2009
-2%
SFSA 2009 Forecast
Roy RouxChairman – SFSA Marketing
Committee2008 SFSA Annual Meeting