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2020 Summer Reliability Assessment Assessments... · PDF file 2020-06-02 · Summer Reliability Assessment 4 About this Report NERC’s 2020 Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA) identifies,

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  • 2020 Summer Reliability Assessment

    June 2020

  • Summer Reliability Assessment 2

    Table of Contents

    Preface .......................................................................................................................... 3

    About this Report ............................................................................................................ 4

    Findings ......................................................................................................................... 5

    Resource Adequacy ......................................................................................................... 6

    Changes from Year-to-Year ............................................................................................... 7

    Internal Demand ............................................................................................................. 8

    Pandemic Preparedness and Operational Assessment—Summer 2020.................................... 9

    Operational Risks Highlighted for Summer 2020 .................................................................14

    Regional Assessment Dashboards .................................................................................... 17

    MISO ........................................................................................................................... 18

    MRO-Manitoba Hydro .................................................................................................... 19

    MRO-SaskPower............................................................................................................ 20

    NPCC-Maritimes ............................................................................................................ 21

    NPCC-New England ........................................................................................................ 22

    NPCC-New York ............................................................................................................. 23

    NPCC-Ontario ............................................................................................................... 24

    NPCC-Québec ............................................................................................................... 25

    PJM ............................................................................................................................. 26

    SERC ............................................................................................................................ 27

    SPP.............................................................................................................................. 30

    Texas RE-ERCOT ............................................................................................................ 31

    WECC .......................................................................................................................... 32

    Data Concepts and Assumptions ...................................................................................... 35

    http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901305 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901306 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901307 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901308 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901309 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901310 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901311 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901312 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901313 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901314 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901315 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901316 http://departments.internal.nerc.com/reliabilityassessment/SeasonalAssessments/NERC%20SRA%202020%20Draft.docx#_Toc40901317

  • Summer Reliability Assessment 3

    Preface Electricity is a key component of the fabric of modern society and the Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) Enterprise serves to strengthen that fabric. The vision for the ERO Enterprise, which is comprised of the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the six Regional Entities (REs), is a highly reliable and secure North American bulk power system (BPS). Our mission is to assure the effective and efficient reduction of risks to the reliability and security of the grid.

    Reliability | Resilience | Security

    Because nearly 400 million citizens in North America are counting on us The North American BPS is divided into six RE boundaries as shown in the map and corresponding table below. The multicolored area denotes overlap as some load-serving entities participate in one Region while associated Transmission Owners/Operators participate in another.

    MRO Midwest Reliability Organization

    NPCC Northeast Power Coordinating Council

    RF ReliabilityFirst

    SERC SERC Reliability Corporation

    Texas RE Texas Reliability Entity

    WECC Western Electricity Coordinating Council

  • Summer Reliability Assessment 4

    About this Report NERC’s 2020 Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA) identifies, assesses, and reports on areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American BPS for the upcoming summer season. In addition, the SRA presents peak electricity demand and supply changes and highlights any unique regional challenges or expected conditions that might impact the BPS. The reliability assessment process is a coordinated reliability evaluation between the Reliability Assessment Subcommittee (RAS), the Regions, and NERC staff. This report reflects NERC’s independent assessment and is intended to inform industry leaders, planners, operators, and regulatory bodies so they are better prepared to take necessary actions to ensure BPS reliability. This report also provides an opportunity for the industry to discuss plans and preparations to ensure reliability for the upcoming summer period. In April 2020, NERC published its Special Report Pandemic Preparedness and Operational Assessment: Spring 2020 to advise electricity stakeholders about elevated risk to electric reliability as a result of the global health crisis.1 NERC continues to assess risks to the reliability and security of the BPS from the global health crisis and reports on industry actions and preparedness in this SRA.

    1 https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/bpsa/Alerts%20DL/NERC_Pandemic_Preparedness_and_Op_Assessment_Spring_2020.pdf

    https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/bpsa/Alerts%20DL/NERC_Pandemic_Preparedness_and_Op_Assessment_Spring_2020.pdf

  • Summer Reliability Assessment 5

    Findings NERC’s annual SRA covers the Summer 2020 (June–September) period. This assessment provides an evaluation of resource and transmission system adequacy necessary to meet projected summer peak demands. In addition to assessing resource adequacy, the SRA monitors and identifies potential reliability issues of interest and regional topics of concern. In 2020, there is heightened uncertainty in demand projections stemming from the progression of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the response of governments, society, and the electricity industry. The following key findings represent NERC’s independent evaluation of electric generation and transmission capacity as well as potential operational concerns that may need to be addressed for the upcoming summer:

     Sufficient capacity resources are expected to be in-service for the upcoming summer. In all areas, with the exception of ERCOT, the Anticipated Reserve Margin meets or surpasses the Reference Margin Level, indicating that planned resources in these areas are adequate to manage risk of a capacity deficiency under normal conditions.2 Assessment areas are prepared to meet potential peak demand with or without pandemic-related demand reductions. Should pandemic related restrictions continue through the summer, peak demand is expected to be lower than forecast.

     Texas RE-ERCOT. Projections for increased peak demand in ERCOT indicate the potential for energy emergency alerts (EEAs) during summer peak periods. Prior to the arrival of COVID-19 and the resulting mitigations that have impacted electricity demand, ERCOT planners were expecting similarly tight operating conditions to those faced in Summer 2019. The ERCOT Anticipated Reserve Margin has risen from 8.5% in Summer 2019 to 12.9% for the upcoming summer. The increase in reserve margin is driven by the addition of over 1.9 GW of on-peak resource capacity. ERCOT’s forecast of peak demand for Summer 2020 is also forecasted to grow in 2020, but higher-growth projections have been tempered in recent months by COVID-19 economic impacts. The potentia

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