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Technical Memorandum #3 2040 Socio Economic Forecasts December 12, 2014

2040 LRTP Tech Memo #3: 2040 Socioeconomic Forecasts

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  • Technical Memorandum #3 2040 Socio Economic Forecasts

    December 12, 2014

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  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    ACRONYMS ABM Activity Based Model AC Activity Center ACS American Community Survey BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis BEBR Bureau of Economic Business and Research BRT Bus Rapid Transit CC Community Centers COM Commercial DRI Development of Regional Impact EAR Evaluation and Appraisal Report ENCPA East Nassau Community Planning Area FAR Floor Area Ratio FLDOE Florida Department of Education FLUM Future Land Use Maps FT Facility Type HH Households ICUF Independent Colleges and Universities of Florida IVC Interchange Village Center LRTP Long Range Transportation Plan MIX Mixed Use NERPM North East Florida Regional Planning Model NERPM-AB North East Florida Regional Planning Model Activity Based PopGen Population Generator program PHH Persons Per Household PUD Planned Unit Development PUMS Public Use Microdata Sample SF Square Feet TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone TND Traditional Neighborhood TPO Transportation Planning Organization

    i Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS .................................................................................................................................................... I

    LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................................................ III

    LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................................................... IV

    INTRODUCTION .......................................................................................................................................1 1.

    ORGANIZATION OF THIS DOCUMENT ...............................................................................................................................3

    YEAR 2040 DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ...............................................................................................4 2.

    DATA COMPARISON YEAR 2035 AND 2040 ..................................................................................................................4 COORDINATION ...........................................................................................................................................................6

    YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ..........................................................................8 3.

    METHODOLOGY ..........................................................................................................................................................8 APPROVED DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................................................... 12 GROUP QUARTER AND SEASONAL POPULATION ............................................................................................................. 12

    YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ...................................................................... 13 4.

    METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................................... 13 APPROVED DEVELOPMENT ......................................................................................................................................... 19

    YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ......................................................... 23 5.

    METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 REASONABLENESS CHECKS ......................................................................................................................................... 25

    DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS BY COUNTY ........................................................................................... 26 6.

    NASSAU COUNTY...................................................................................................................................................... 26 Nassau County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process .................................................................. 26 Nassau County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process ............................................................... 33 Nassau County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ...................................................... 35

    DUVAL COUNTY ....................................................................................................................................................... 38 Duval County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process .................................................................... 38 Duval County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process .................................................................. 52 Duval County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ......................................................... 58

    ST. JOHNS COUNTY............................................................................................................................................... 60 St. Johns County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process ............................................................... 60 St. Johns County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process ............................................................ 64 St. Johns County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ................................................... 69

    CLAY COUNTY .......................................................................................................................................................... 70 Clay County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process ....................................................................... 70 Clay County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process .................................................................... 76 Clay County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ........................................................... 79

    BAKER COUNTY ........................................................................................................................................................ 80 Baker County Year 2040 Population Data Development Process .................................................................... 80 Baker County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process .................................................................. 89

    i Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    Baker County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ......................................................... 90 PUTNAM COUNTY .................................................................................................................................................... 92

    Putnam County Year 2040 Population Development Process .......................................................................... 92 Putnam County Year 2040 Employment Data Development Process .............................................................. 99 Putnam County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data Development Process ................................................... 101

    FINALIZATION OF DATA ....................................................................................................................... 102 7.

    YEAR 2030 DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS ........................................................................................... 103 8.

    APPENDIX A: COORDINATION .................................................................................................................... 106

    APPENDIX B: REVIEW COMMENTS .............................................................................................................. 141

    ii Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Comparison Population Projections Year 2035 and 2040 .............................................................................................. 5 Table 2: Year 2010 and 2040 Population Totals by County ......................................................................................................... 5 Table 3: Year 2010 Vacant Residential Parcels and Vacant Housing Units ................................................................................ 10 Table 4: Year 2010 Employment Distribution Compared to Population Distribution by County .............................................. 13 Table 5: Year 2010 Employment Data Sources .......................................................................................................................... 14 Table 6: BEA 2000 and 2005 Employment Data Growth Rate ................................................................................................ 15 Table 7: BEBR 2005 and 2010 Employment Data Growth Rate .............................................................................................. 15 Table 8: BEA Year 2000 and 2010 Employment Data ................................................................................................................ 16 Table 9: Year 2040 Employment Estimates based on BEA ........................................................................................................ 16 Table 10: Year 2040 Employment Projections and Population in Households .......................................................................... 17 Table 11: Year 2040 Population and Year 2040 BEA Employment Estimates Comparison ....................................................... 18 Table 12: NERPM-AB Year 2010 and 2040 Population and Employment Control Totals ......................................................... 18 Table 13: NERPM-AB Employment Sectors ............................................................................................................................... 19 Table 14: Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sectors ............................................................................................................ 20 Table 15: Year 2010 Employment by Sector by County ............................................................................................................. 21 Table 16: Year 2040 Total Sector Employment by County ........................................................................................................ 22 Table 17: Year 2010 School Enrollment Data versus Age Group Data ....................................................................................... 23 Table 18: Year 2040 School Enrollment Projections versus Age Group Projections .................................................................. 24 Table 19: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) .............................................................. 32 Table 20: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector ..................................................................................... 34 Table 21: Nassau County Year 2040 DRI Employment Estimate................................................................................................ 35 Table 22: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data .................................................................................... 37 Table 23: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) ................................................................ 50 Table 24: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector ....................................................................................... 53 Table 25: Duval County Year 2040 Approved Development Employment ................................................................................ 55 Table 26: Duval County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data ...................................................................................... 59 Table 27: St. John's County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH)........................................................... 63 Table 28: St. John's County Year 2010 and 2040 Employment Data ......................................................................................... 65 Table 29: St. Johns County Year 2040 DRI Employment Estimate ............................................................................................ 67 Table 30: St. Johns County Year 2040 School Enrollment Data by District ............................................................................... 70 Table 31: Clay County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Data Living in Households (HH) .......................................................... 75 Table 32: Clay County 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sector .................................................................................................. 76 Table 33: Clay County Year 2040 Approved Employment Estimate .......................................................................................... 78 Table 34: Clay County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data by District ....................................................................... 80 Table 35: Baker County Summary of Parcel Data TAZ 2402 ...................................................................................................... 87 Table 36: Baker County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) ................................................................ 88 Table 37: Baker County Employment Totals by Sector 2010 and 2040 ..................................................................................... 89 Table 38: Baker County Year 2040 Employment Estimate Alternate Scenario.......................................................................... 90 Table 39: Baker County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data ...................................................................................... 91 Table 40: Putnam County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH) ............................................................. 99 Table 41: Putnam County Employment Totals by Sector 2010 and 2040 ............................................................................... 100 Table 42: Putnam County Year 2010 and 2040 School Enrollment Data ................................................................................ 102 Table 43: Year 2030 Population living in HH and Number of HH by County ........................................................................... 103 Table 44: Year 2030 Sector Employment by County ............................................................................................................... 104 Table 45: Year 2030 School Enrollment Projections by County ............................................................................................... 105

    iii Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: North Florida TPO NERPM-AB Six County Study Area .................................................................................................. 2 Figure 2: Study Area District Map ................................................................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3: Nassau County Municipal Boundaries ........................................................................................................................ 27 Figure 4: Nassau County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ..................................................... 28 Figure 5: Fernandina Beach Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ................................................ 29 Figure 6: Nassau County Future Land Use Map ......................................................................................................................... 31 Figure 7: Nassau County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment .................................... 36 Figure 8: Duval County Municipal Boundaries ........................................................................................................................... 39 Figure 9: Duval County District 5 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ........................................ 40 Figure 10: Duval County District 6 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 41 Figure 11: Duval County District 7 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 42 Figure 12: Duval County District 8 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 43 Figure 13: Duval County District 9 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................... 44 Figure 14: Duval County District 10 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units .................................... 45 Figure 15: Duval County District 11 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units .................................... 46 Figure 16: Duval County District 12 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units .................................... 47 Figure 17: Duval County District 13 and 14 Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ......................... 48 Figure 18: City of Jacksonville Future Land Use Map ................................................................................................................. 49 Figure 19: Duval County DRI Locations ...................................................................................................................................... 54 Figure 20: Duval County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment .................................... 58 Figure 21: St. John's County Municipal Boundaries ................................................................................................................... 61 Figure 22: St. John's County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ................................................ 62 Figure 23: St. John's County DRIs ............................................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 24: St. Johns County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment .............................. 69 Figure 25: Clay County Municipal Boundaries ........................................................................................................................... 71 Figure 26: Clay County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ........................................................ 72 Figure 27: Clay County DRI's and Master Plans ......................................................................................................................... 74 Figure 28: Clay County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment ....................................... 79 Figure 29: Baker County Municipal Boundaries ......................................................................................................................... 81 Figure 30: Baker County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ...................................................... 82 Figure 31: Baker County Inset Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units ............................................. 83 Figure 32: Baker County TAZ 2402 ............................................................................................................................................. 85 Figure 33: Baker County Parcel Data for TAZ 2402 .................................................................................................................... 86 Figure 34: Baker County 2040 School Enrollment Projections based on 2010 Ratio ................................................................ 91 Figure 35: Putnam County Municipal Boundaries ..................................................................................................................... 93 Figure 36: Putnam County Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Block with Vacant Units .................................................... 94 Figure 37: Palatka Vacant Residential Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units................................................................ 95 Figure 38: Putnam County TAZ Locations of Possible Future Growth ....................................................................................... 96 Figure 39: City of Palatka TAZ Locations of Possible Future Growth ......................................................................................... 98 Figure 40: Putnam County 2010 Age Group, Base Year 2010 and FLDOE 2009-2010 School Enrollment ............................... 101

    iv Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

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  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    INTRODUCTION 1.Land use is what drives our need to travel and is therefore an extremely important input into the transportation planning process. Land use development decisions are made at the local level but the effects of these decisions can be seen in the regional travel patterns. The coordination between the local communities is important so that the growth pattern is beneficial for the area as a whole and not done in a vacuum. Figure 1 show the six county study area for which socioeconomic data was collected. Representing the correct vision in the data set allows the North Florida TPO to measure the effect of the development patterns on the regional transportation system. The data development process described in this technical memorandum applies to the input data sets for the year 2040 Trend Scenario socio-economic data set and the year 2040 Alternate Scenario socio-economic data set. The Trend refers to the continuation of the current development patterns as documented in Comprehensive Plans, Evaluation and Appraisal Report (EARs) and visually represented on the Future Land Use Maps (FLUM). The Alternate year 2040 socio-economic data reflects the desired changes in land use patterns (changing travel patterns), which local governments would like to see implemented in an effort to relieve roadway congestion problems caused by the increase in population and intensification of development. The process of data projection starts with setting the control totals for the permanent residents. The employment and school enrollment files are created once control totals for population are established. Both scenarios use the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic Business and Research (BEBR) 2040 medium population projections for the county. The control total by county is used to calculate the number of dwelling units that need to be built to accommodate the countys growth in population. The placement and densities of the housing units are directed by the residential land use categories as established in the FLUM. In previous transportation models used by the North Florida TPO, the trip rates were based on a cross- classification matrix which stratified the trip rates by type of dwelling unit and household characteristics such as number of people per dwelling unit and number of automobiles per dwelling unit. Based on this cross classification, a trip rate was selected for the dwelling units within a traffic analysis zone (TAZ) and the daily average number of trips was calculated based on these input variables. The transportation model used in the year 2040 LRTP, the North East Florida Regional Planning Model Activity Based (NERPM-AB), no longer selects a trip rate based on cross classification. It assigns travel patterns to households and the individuals within the household. Actual number of dwelling units, types of dwelling units, whether or not they are occupied is no longer needed as input data. The input data is based on the many characteristics of the household and the individual. It is reasonable to assume that every household lives in a housing unit; however the data set does not keep tract of the units, only the households. The household characteristics are obtained from the 2010 Census data and the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) which is a subsample of the American Community Survey (ACS) data. Characteristics that are part of the NERPM-AB input data set are the number of individuals per household, age of the head of the household, number of workers per household, income level of the household, number of households with children versus no children, and the age of the individuals in the household. Automobile availability is also used and is obtained through the use of an

    1 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

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    LegendCounty

    BAKERCLAYDUVALNASSAUPUTNAMSTJOHNSWater BodiesRoadway System

    2040 Long Range Transportation Plan Figure 1 - North Florida TPO NERPM-AB

    Six County Study Area 0 4.5 9 Miles0 10,560 Feet

    Date: 9/22/2014 2

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    automobile estimation model rather than provided as direct input. The automobile availability model is discussed in the validation report. The employment and school enrollment NERPM-AB data files require more detailed information as well. On the employment side, these changes are mainly related to the number of employment sectors that are identified in the input data file, and the school enrollment is stratified by type of school. The 2010 household data sets are projected to 2040 using the year 2010 Census Data and the 2010 Property Appraisers Data. The U.S. Department of Commerce - Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and BEBR are the basis for the employment data projections. The school enrollment projections are based on data obtained from the Department of Education, countys school boards and colleges and universities. All forecasts were closely coordinated with the local governments.

    ORGANIZATION OF THIS DOCUMENT This technical memorandum first discusses the overall data development process. Secondly, it discusses the coordination process with the local governments in order to obtain their insights into the expected/proposed development patterns. The third point of discussion is the approved development in each of the counties and finally the additional growth added to the areas. In some instances, the approved developments provided enough housing units to accommodate the 2040 population. In other instances additional growth had to be assumed.

    3 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    YEAR 2040 DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS 2.The NERPM-AB requires five distinct socio-economic data input files. These files contain information concerning the permanent residents; group quarters residents (e.g. nursing homes, jails, and dormitories), seasonal residents, employment and school enrollment. In the absence of a land use model, the typical process followed in the long-range planning process in Florida is to use the medium population projections developed by BEBR for the counties totals and distribute the total to the appropriate TAZ within the counties. All other socio-economic data files have logical relationships to these population totals. A significant growth in school enrollment or employment cannot be projected if there is no significant growth in the population. Since the NERPM-AB not only requires projections of the totals but also makes assumptions about the age groups within the population, all socio-economic data input files need to correspond with the population projections. Although the employment total is related to the population totals, other data sources such as the BEA, the employment estimates from BEBR are typically reviewed to predict a reasonable employment control total. Employment growth in certain sectors follows population growth but other economic factors also influence the employment growth pattern. These economic patterns are reflected in the BEA data. Since the population projections form the basis of all the socio-economic data input files, the method used to project the population is discussed first, followed by the employment projections and the school enrollment projections.

    DATA COMPARISON YEAR 2035 AND 2040 At the Steering Committee meeting held on June 13, 2013 the preliminary methodology to forecast the future year population was discussed. At the meeting, members were informed that the NERPM-AB necessitates the location of households at the parcel level. On Table 1, population totals are shown for the base year (year 2005) and the current base year (year 2010) for the LRTP. The other totals shown are the two sets of year 2035 projections used for the previous LRTP; these were a Trend Scenario and an Alternate Scenario. Counties on Table 1 are ordered as they are in the travel demand model. The other columns reflect the BEBR medium population projections for the years 2035 and 2040. As illustrated on Table 1, the 2040 population forecast developed by BEBR is lower for 2040 (1,999,400) than the year 2035 population forecasts (2,030,000) used for the previous LRTP. Table 2 summarizes the population totals by county for the NERPM-AB. The table shows that the total growth for the total study area is 40.9% over the 30-year period. This equates to a 1.4 % annual population growth rate. The county with the highest annual population growth rate is St. Johns (3.3%). Clay population follows with an annual population growth rate of 2.2%. The two counties with the slowest annual population growth rates are Duval (0.8) and Putnam (.02%), and Baker is expected to grow at a rate of 1.5% a year and Nassau at a rate of 2.0% a year.

    4 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    Table 1: Comparison Population Projections Year 2035 and 2040

    County 2035 LRTP Year 2005 2040 LRTP Year 2010

    2035 LRTP Year 2035

    Trend Scenario

    2035 LRTP Year 2035 Alternate Scenario

    BEBR Population

    Medium Estimates

    Year 2035 *

    BEBR Population

    Medium Estimates

    Year 2040 **

    Difference BEBR

    2040-2035

    Nassau 67,681 73,314 110,192 126,238 111,500 116,700 5,200

    Duval 855,572 864,278 1,276,410 1,247,857 1,169,700 1,071,600 -98,100

    St. Johns 157,918 189,396 344,117 322,895 342,800 377,000 34,200

    Clay 181,624 190,865 359,526 275,649 290,800 315,700 24,900

    Baker 23,952 27,115 36,096 36,096 34,600 39,000 4,400

    Putnam 73,756 74,364 88,465 87,496 80,600 79,400 -1,200

    Totals 1,360,503 1,419,332 2,214,806 2,096,231 2,030,000 1,999,400 -30,600 * Florida Statistical Abstract 2010 Table 1.41 ** http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/content/florida-county-population-projections FPS 162 Revised.xlsx

    Table 2: Year 2010 and 2040 Population Totals by County

    County

    NERPM-AB Year 2010

    Total Population

    living in Households

    NERPM-AB Year 2010

    Total Population

    living in Group

    Quarters

    NERPM-AB Year 2010

    Total Population

    BEBR Population

    Medium Estimates Year 2040

    Growth in Numbers

    2040-2010 Growth Rate Annual Growth Rate

    Nassau 72,771 543 73,314 116,700 43,386 59.2% 2.0%

    Duval 844,293 19,985 864,278 1,071,600 207,322 24.0% 0.8%

    St. Johns 186,598 2,798 189,396 377,000 187,604 99.1% 3.3%

    Clay 189,614 1,251 190,865 315,700 124,835 65.4% 2.2%

    Baker 24,771 2,344 27,115 39,000 11,885 43.8% 1.5%

    Putnam 72,957 1,407 74,364 79,400 5,036 6.8% 0.2%

    Totals 1,391,004 28,328 1,419,332 1,999,400 580,068 40.9% 1.4%

    5 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    As illustrated in Table 2, the population in the NERPM-AB is classified as living in a household or group quarter. As noted earlier, group quarters can be a school dormitory, barracks at a military installation, nursing homes, jails, etc. The group quarters population has different travel characteristics than the household population and is therefore treated differently in NERPM-AB. The input data for the population living in group quarters is categorized by age and gender, and the household population is categorized by the following groups:

    Number of Persons in Household Age Group of Head of Household Children or no Children in Household Income Level of Household Number of Workers in Household Gender of Persons in Household Age Group of Persons in Households

    Another population group that is identified in the NERPM-AB is seasonal population. This group is generally identified as a percentage of seasonal households within a particular parcel. The year 2010 data is based on the year 2010 Census Data and the PUMS data. The base year 2010 socio-economic data files were developed by the North Florida TPO. No changes were made to the year 2010 data.

    COORDINATION After the population control totals were established a coordination effort was initiated. Within the six-county study area there are twenty-eight local governments. Listed below are the counties and the municipalities within them.

    Nassau o Callahan o Fernandina Beach o Hilliard

    Duval o Atlantic Beach o Baldwin o Jacksonville Beach o Neptune Beach

    St. Johns o Hastings o Marineland o St. Augustine o St. Augustine Beach

    Clay o Green Cove Springs o Keystone Heights o Orange Park o Penney Farms

    Baker o Glen St. Mary

    6 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    o Macclenney Putnam

    o Crescent City o Interlachen o Palatka o Pomona Park o Welaka

    Each of the county governments and municipalities were contacted to arrange meetings to discuss the LRTP and the socio-economic data. Twenty-one of the local governments were able to meet in person, and six (Macclenney, Glen St. Mary, Penney Farms, Pomona Park, Baldwin, Marineland) were able to communicate through email and phone calls. Only one of the local governments did not respond (Welaka). During the meetings with the local governments, we obtained agreement on the use of the BEBR year 2040 medium population projections, information regarding the current and future growth patterns within the communities, and the major issues related to growth and the transportation system in the area. The input received from the local government was used as a guideline in calculating the year 2040 population and employment projections by parcel. Meeting summaries were developed and are included in Appendix A of this document.

    7 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS 3.METHODOLOGY Whereas some of the municipalities within the study area are nearing build out (Fernandina Beach, Jacksonville Beach, Neptune Beach, St. Augustine Beach, and City of St. Augustine), an inventory of the vacant residential parcels and vacancy rates of the existing housing stock was performed. The vacant residential parcels were assumed to develop first, unless other information was obtained from the local governments. To identify the vacant residential parcels the year 2010 parcel data was obtained from the Florida Department of Revenue and the County Property Appraiser Office and the vacant residential parcels (Land Use Code 000) were identified. Due to the recent down turn in the economy, the numbers of vacant units by census block were also identified. This data was obtained from the year 2010 Census data.

    As illustrated on see Figure 2, there are 35 districts within NERPM-AB. Table 3 identifies the number of vacant residential parcels and the number of vacant housing units summarized by district. The districts listed in Table 3 are developed by the local governments. According to the 2010 Census, 13% or 82,272 of the housing units within the six county area are vacant. The county with the highest vacancy rate is Putnam County with a reported 21%. The Counties with the lowest vacancy rates are Baker and Clay counties with 9%. The last three columns in Table 3 summarize the vacant residential parcels in both number and in area. For the more rural areas this information is not as pertinent because they are able to change land use from timberland or agricultural to residential. In the urbanized sections of the study area, the beaches communities for example, there are few undeveloped parcels remaining.

    The information identified in Table 3 is presented in a map for each of the counties. The information shown on the tables and maps were discussed with the local governments and were used to identify the locations of currently approved developments and to identify the most likely locations of future development.

    In addition to the 2010 parcel data and the 2010 Census data information sources, the base year 2010 socio-economic data, the FLUM, and input directly received from the local governments were used to develop the 2040 population projections. All the projections are aggregated to the TAZ level for review; however they are developed at the parcel level. This is necessary because the data used in the NERPM-AB are disaggregated to the parcel level by the Population Generator (PopGen) program. This program synthesizes the population to the characteristics identified in the Census and PUMS data sources and allocates it to a household/parcel and individual level. Since the data is to be assigned to the household/parcel level, it is important to base the projections on parcel data to ensure that any future projections for the TAZs can actually geographically fit within the TAZ. To do that, the parcel data was used to allocate the approved development and additional future growth. The application of the PopGen program is discussed in the Validation Report and in the Users Guide.

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    LegendDISTRICT

    1234567891011121314151617

    181920212223242526272829303132333435Water BodiesRoadway System

    2040 Long Range Transportation PlanFigure 2 - Study Area District Map 0 4.5 9 Miles0 10,560 Feet

    Date: 9/9/2014 9

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    Table 3: Year 2010 Vacant Residential Parcels and Vacant Housing Units

    Location 2010 Parcel and Household Units Data

    County District District Number

    Census 2010 Total Units

    Census 2010

    Occupied Units

    2010 Census Vacant Units

    Vacant Units

    Divided by Total

    Units

    2010 Number of

    Vacant Residential Parcels (1)

    2010 Area of Vacant Residential Parcels in

    Acres

    Total Area

    Divided by

    Number of

    Parcels

    Nassau Fernandina 1 13,721 9,351 4,370 32% 1,973 964 0.49 Nassau Yulee 2 10,805 9,772 1,033 10% 3,880 29,527 7.61 Nassau Hilliard 3 3,668 3,353 315 9% 1,358 4,073 3.00

    Nassau Callahan 4 6,834 6,337 497 7% 1,867 11,477 6.15 Nassau Total 35,028 28,813 6,215 18% 9,078 46,042 5.07

    Duval Northside 5 29,700 26,808 2,892 10% 4,757 5,200 1.09 Duval Arlington 6 83,155 73,975 9,180 11% 2,014 1,509 0.75

    Duval Atlantic

    Beach 7 5,821 5,191 630 11% 145 41 0.28

    Duval Neptune

    Beach 8 3,493 3,192 301 9% 83 27 0.33

    Duval Jacksonville

    Beach 9 11,882 10,040 1,842 16% 490 143 0.29 Duval Southside 10 110,325 99,962 10,363 9% 3,433 2,496 0.73 Duval Downtown 11 18,597 14,026 4,571 25% 2,486 281 0.11

    Duval Westside

    (North) 12 57,777 49,715 8,062 14% 5,565 3,698 0.66 Duval Baldwin 13 636 568 68 11% 152 101 0.67

    Duval Westside

    (South) 14 67,164 59,032 8,132 12% 3,608 2,847 0.79 Duval Total 388,550 342,509 46,041 12% 22,733 16,344 0.72

    St. Johns Ponte Vedra 15 13,969 12,083 1,886 14% 1,307 866 0.66

    St. Johns Coastline

    Vilano 16 3,056 2,214 842 28% 1,064 429 0.40

    St. Johns Nocatee

    Golf Village 17 8,920 7,639 1,281 14% 4,756 2,650 0.56 St. Johns Fruit Cove 18 12,513 11,847 666 5% 2,252 946 0.42

    St. Johns

    West St. Johns

    County 19 10,587 9,435 1,152 11% 2,692 2,207 0.82

    St. Johns

    Coast line Crescent

    Beach 20 15,064 9,755 5,309 35% 2,062 563 0.27

    St. Johns Matanzas 21 20,647 17,952 2,695 13% 7,102 3,245 0.46

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    Table 3: Year 2010 Vacant Residential Parcels and Vacant Housing Units Continued

    Location 2010 Parcel and Household Units Data

    County District District Number

    Census 2010 Total Units

    Census 2010

    Occupied Units

    2010 Census Vacant Units

    Vacant Units

    Divided by

    Total Units

    2010 Number of

    Vacant Residential Parcels (1)

    2010 Area of Vacant Residential Parcels in

    Acres

    Total Area

    Divided by

    Number of

    Parcels

    St. Johns Hastings 22 5,110 4,445 665 13% 7,020 6,785 0.97 St. Johns Total 89,866 75,370 14,496 16% 28,255 17,690 0.63

    Clay Orange

    Park 23 3,997 3,574 423 11% 119 89 0.75

    Clay

    Bellair-Meadow-

    brook 24 7,199 6,589 610 8% 44 30 0.68

    Clay Fleming

    Island 25 10,440 9,821 619 6% 367 273 0.74

    Clay Oakleaf

    Plantation 26 27,105 25,002 2,103 8% 2,981 1,384 0.46

    Clay

    Middle-burg-Clay

    Hill 27 7,091 6,504 587 8% 1,218 2,258 1.85

    Clay Keystone

    Heights 28 321 194 127 40% 73 66 0.91

    Clay Penney

    Farms 29 5,445 5,021 424 8% 906 1,007 1.11

    Clay Asbury

    Lake 30 3,142 2,836 306 10% 596 1,087 1.82

    Clay

    Green Cove

    Springs 31 3,045 2,683 362 12% 575 363 0.63

    Clay South West 32 7,046 5,988 1,058 15% 4,354 7,137 1.64

    Clay

    Keystone Heights

    City 33 503 445 58 12% 61 28 0.45

    Clay Total 75,334 68,657 6,677 9% 11,294 13,722 1.22

    Baker Total 34 9,687 8,772 915 9% 2,289 5,341 2.33 Putnam Total 35 37,337 29,409 7,928 21% 53,757 26,841 0.50

    Grand Total 635,802 553,530 82,272 13% 127,406 125,980 0.99

    1. Department of Revenue Parcel Data Land Use Code = 000

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    APPROVED DEVELOPMENT The first step was to work with the local governments to identify residential development that is approved but not yet build. The number of housing units associated with the residential developments is typically provided by the local governments. If the counties were unable to provide the status of build out, the numbers were checked against the parcel data and aerial photographs. Additional checks and calculations that needed to be made were related to the TAZ boundaries. The TAZ boundaries do not always match those of the Development of Regional Impact (DRI). This inconsistency necessitates the calculation of the parcel size associated with the DRI to ensure that the appropriate geographical area within the TAZ is used for the DRI. In addition to identifying approved development, the likelihood of a reduction of vacancy rates was discussed. Several of the local government requested a reduction in the vacancy rate, assuming it was higher than usual due to the economic downturn.

    GROUP QUARTER AND SEASONAL POPULATION The group quarter and seasonal population projections were based on input received from the local governments. Due to the lack of available data sources, it was decided to keep the assumptions for 2040 the same as in 2010 unless specific changes were provided by the local governments. Clay and Duval counties identified the development of new nursing homes. The City of St. Augustine discussed an increase in seasonal housing units in the downtown area but no specific information was provided and no changes were made to the dataset.

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    YEAR 2040 EMPLOYMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS 4.METHODOLOGY As noted earlier, when developing employment projections it is important to maintain a logical and reasonable relationship with population. Table 4 illustrates the relationship between 2010 population living in households by county and the total number of employees by county.

    Table 4: Year 2010 Employment Distribution Compared to Population Distribution by County

    County

    Total 2010 Population

    living in Households

    NERPM Year 2010 Total

    Workers

    Year 2010 Percentage of Workers related to

    Total County Population living in Households

    Year 2010 Percentage of Workers related to Total Study Area Population

    living in Households

    Nassau 72,771 24,126 33% 2% Duval 844,293 519,142 61% 37% St Johns 186,598 61,714 33% 4% Clay 189,614 54,454 29% 4% Baker 24,771 7,396 30% 1% Putnam 72,957 25,148 34% 2% Total 1,391,004 691,980 50% 50%

    It should also be noted that in 2010 50% of the population of households in the region are workers, with Duval County having the highest percentage of workers per household. In the earlier four-step NERPM the accuracy of the employment projections was important because attractions were generated by this data and adjusted to match productions generated by the household data. In the NERPM-AB, this adjustment will not take place and the actual number of employees is matched with the workers per households and the individual workers in the household themselves, based on the PUMS data. The North Florida TPO developed the 2010 employment data and no changes were made to the 2010 base year data. The 2010 data set was developed using a combination of BEBR and the BEA data sources (see Table 5). The BEBR, the BEA and the Info Group business data were analyzed to develop 2040 control totals for the counties. Table 5 shows totals by county. The difference between the BEA and BEBR is primarily related to a different reporting methodology, the BEBR is based on wage and salary employment, also referred to as wage and salary jobs, and measures the average annual number of full-time and part-time jobs in each area by place-of-work. All jobs for which wages and salaries are paid are counted. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted with equal weight. The BEA employment series for states and local areas comprises estimates of the number of jobs, full-time plus part-time, by place-of-work. Full-time and part-time jobs are counted at equal weight. Employees, sole proprietors, and active partners are included. The employment estimates are designed to be consistent with the estimates of wage and salary disbursements and proprietors income that are calculated part of the personal

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    Table 5: Year 2010 Employment Data Sources

    County Year 2010 Employment Totals Year 2013

    NERPM-AB 1 BEBR 2 BEA 3 Info Group 4

    Nassau 24,126 18,919 26,561 24,767

    Duval 519,142 484,350 612,268 517,756

    St. Johns 61,714 57,880 71,959 82,613

    Clay 54,454 45,894 62,898 58,714

    Baker 7,150 7,150 9,317 8,872

    Putnam 25,148 19,074 22,227 23,338

    Total 691,734 633,267 805,230 716,060 1. NERPM-AB data was developed by the North Florida TPO 2. University of Florida, Bureau of Business and Research data was obtained from http://www.bebr.ufl.edu/data/series/annual/411/table 3. Bureau of Economic Analysis data Tables listing full-time and part-time employment by SIC Industry obtained from http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=70&step=1#reqid=70&step=1&isuri=1 4. Year 2013 InfoGroup business data obtained from the North Florida TPO income series. The Info Group data is developed by a private company and is based on surveys. The NERPM-AB 2010 data used the BEBR and BEA sources in their development and was a combination of the two. The Info Group data was received too late to be used in the development of the 2010 data set. After analyzing the employment growth patterns of the last three decades using the BEA data source, it was determined that the growth during the last decade represented the most realistic growth pattern to apply to future projections. Table 6 and Table 7 illustrate the growth rates over a 5-year period within the decade. The growth rate from the decade, as illustrated in Table 8, was 9.53% with an annual growth rate of 0.95%. The county with the highest employment growth rate is St. Johns with an annual growth rate of 3.69 % second is Baker with 2.73%, third Nassau with 1.74%, fourth is Clay with 1.59%, and Duval shows a 0.63% increase and Putnam County a negative annual growth rate of -0.06%.

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    Table 6: BEA 2000 and 2005 Employment Data Growth Rate

    County

    Year 2000 - 2005 Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Data

    2000 2005 Growth in Numbers Growth

    Rate

    Annual Growth

    Rate

    Nassau 22,624 25,706 3,082 13.62% 2.72% Duval 576,067 620,337 44,270 7.68% 1.54% St Johns 52,566 67,123 14,557 27.69% 5.54% Clay 54,258 59,440 5,182 9.55% 1.91% Baker 7,320 9,125 1,805 24.66% 4.93% Putnam 22,356 23,388 1,032 4.62% 0.92%

    Total 735,191 805,119 69,928 9.51% 1.90%

    Table 7: BEBR 2005 and 2010 Employment Data Growth Rate

    County

    Year 2005 - 2010 Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Data

    2005 2010 Growth in Numbers Growth

    Rate

    Annual Growth

    Rate

    Nassau 25,706 26,561 855 0.03 0.01 Duval 620,337 612,268 -8,069 -0.01 0.00 St Johns 67,123 71,959 4,836 0.07 0.01 Clay 59,440 62,898 3,458 0.06 0.01 Baker 9,125 9,317 192 0.02 0.00 Putnam 23,388 22,227 -1,161 -0.05 -0.01

    Total 805,119 805,230 111 0.00 0.00

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    Table 8: BEA Year 2000 and 2010 Employment Data

    County

    Year 2000 - 2010 Bureau of Economic Analysis Employment Data

    2000 2010 Growth in Numbers Growth

    Rate Annual

    Growth Rate

    Nassau 22,624 26,561 3,937 17.40% 1.74% Duval 576,067 612,268 36,201 6.28% 0.63% St Johns 52,566 71,959 19,393 36.89% 3.69% Clay 54,258 62,898 8,640 15.92% 1.59% Baker 7,320 9,317 1,997 27.28% 2.73% Putnam 22,356 22,227 -129 -0.58% -0.06%

    Total 735,191 805,230 70,039 9.53% 0.95% If we apply the annual growth rates as reflected in Table 8 to the year 2010 employment numbers (Table 9), we obtain a total employment number of 988,226 for the six county area. Table 9 shows the 2040 employment forecast applying the BEA growth rate to the 2010 BEA employment totals. To insure that employment growth in this dataset occurs logically, we need to go back and examine the relationship between population and employment in the 2010 dataset.

    Table 9: Year 2040 Employment Estimates based on BEA

    County Year 2010 NERPM-AB Year 2010 Workers Year 2040 Projected Workers based on BEA Compounded Annual Growth Rata

    Annual Growth Rate *

    Nassau 24,126 40,661 1.74% Duval 519,142 627,144 0.63% St. John's 61,714 186,691 3.69% Clay 54,454 87,737 1.59% Baker 7,396 16,775 2.73% Putnam 25,148 29,218 -0.06%

    Total 691,980 988,226 0.95% * Growth rate for Putnam County is adjusted to 0.05%

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    Comparing Table 4 (showing the 2010 population in relationship with the 2010 employment), with the employment projections based on the BEA data (Table 9) reflecting the economic and development trend as it has been occurring over the last decade, it is evident that the relationship is skewed. These two data sources are compared in Table 10. In Table 10 it can be seen that Duval, Clay and Baker counties are not unreasonable. However, if only the BEA trend is used, the 203% growth rate for employment in St. Johns County corresponds to a 101% population growth rate and in Baker County a 127% employment growth rate with a 48% population growth rate. As the counties are focusing on ways to increase the employment within their boundaries, it is not realistic to assume that current commuting pattern into and out of Duval County will be the same in 2040. Since employment projections carry a high degree of uncertainty with them, a combination of both sources (BEA and population growth pattern) was used. To normalize the relationship between the population and employment projections, an average, based on the two sets of employment numbers as shown in Table 11 was used. The average is based on the employment projection solely based on the population growth and the employment projection based on BEA data trends. The final employment projections are shown in Table 12.

    Table 10: Year 2040 Employment Projections and Population in Households

    County Total 2010 Population in HH Total 2040

    Population in HH

    Population Growth Rate 2010 - 2040

    Total 2010 Workers

    Total 2040 Workers

    Workers Growth Rate 2010 - 2040

    Nassau 72,771 116,159 60% 24,126 40,661 69% Duval 844,293 1,050,684 25% 519,142 627,144 21% St Johns 186,598 374,207 101% 61,714 186,691 203% Clay 189,614 314,010 66% 54,454 87,737 61% Baker 24,771 36,657 48% 7,396 16,775 127% Putnam 72,957 77,991 7% 25,148 29,218 16% Total 1,391,004 1,969,708 42% 691,980 988,226 43%

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    Table 11: Year 2040 Population and Year 2040 BEA Employment Estimates Comparison

    County

    Year 2010 Population

    living in HH

    Year 2040 Population

    living in HH

    Year 2010

    NERPM-AB Total Workers

    Year 2040 Estimated Workers based on

    NERPM-AB Population

    Data A

    Year 2040 Estimated Workers based on

    BEA Trend B

    Year 2010 Percentage of Workers related to

    Population living in HH by County

    Year 2040 Percentage of Workers related to

    Population living in HH by County

    A

    Year 2040 Percentage of Workers related to

    Population living in HH by County

    B

    Nassau 72,771 116,159 24,126 38,511 40,661 33% 33% 35% Duval 844,293 1,050,684 519,142 646,048 627,144 61% 61% 60% St Johns 186,598 374,207 61,714 123,762 186,691 33% 33% 50% Clay 189,614 314,010 54,454 90,178 87,737 29% 29% 28% Baker 24,771 36,657 7,396 10,945 16,775 30% 30% 46%

    Putnam 72,957 77,991 25,148 26,883 29,218 34% 34% 37%

    Total 1,391,004 1,969,708 691,980 936,328 988,226 50% 48% 50% A = Number of workers based on percent workers of total county population B = Number of workers based on annual growth based on BEA data

    Table 12: NERPM-AB Year 2010 and 2040 Population and Employment Control Totals

    County Year 2010

    Population living in Households

    Year 2040 Population living

    in Households

    Population Growth Rate 2010 -2040

    Year 2010 NERPM-AB

    Total Workers

    Year 2040 Estimated Workers *

    Workers Growth Rate 2010 -2040

    Nassau 72,771 116,159 60% 24,126 39,586 64% Duval 844,293 1,050,684 24% 519,142 636,596 23% St Johns 186,598 374,207 101% 61,714 155,227 152% Clay 189,614 314,010 66% 54,454 88,958 64% Baker 24,771 36,657 48% 7,396 13,860 87% Putnam 72,957 77,991 7% 25,148 28,051 21% Total 1,391,004 1,969,708 42% 691,980 962,278 39%

    * Average between BEA 10 year growth rate (2000-2010) and NERPM-AB growth rate of population year 2040. In the four-step NERPM model employment data was segregated into four sectors are follows: Light Industrial, Heavy Industrial, Commercial and Service. The NERPM-AB identifies twenty different sectors. A detailed description of each of the sectors can be found at http://www.naics.com/search.htm Table 13 lists the sectors identified in the employment data set. In Table 13 the sectors are organized by the three main categories of employment: Industrial, Commercial and Service. This grouping was needed to place the approved development data into the appropriate sector. The approved development data received by the local governments is in most cases identified by the three main groupings and not by the specific sector.

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    Table 13: NERPM-AB Employment Sectors

    NAICS* Industrial Sector

    11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting

    21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction

    23 Construction

    31-33 Manufacturing

    48-49 Transportation and Warehousing

    Commercial Sector

    22 Utilities

    42 Wholesale Trade

    44-45 Retail Trade

    72 Accommodation and Food Services

    Service Sector

    51 Information

    52 Finance and Insurance

    53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

    54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services

    55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

    61 Educational Services

    62 Health Care and Social Assistance

    71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

    81 Other Services (except Public Administration)

    99 Public Administration * North American Industry Classification System Table 14 shows the year 2010 and the forecasted 2040 employment data by sector. The largest employment sector is Retail Trade (12.57%), followed by the Health Care and Social Assistance employment sector (11.22%). The Accommodation and Food Services and Public Administration sectors both account for about 9% of the employment. Of the three major sectors, the service sector employs 55.83% of the workers, the commercial sector 29.05% of the workers, and the industrial sector employs 15.12% of the workers.

    Table 15 shows the distribution among the different sectors of the year 2010 data, and Table 16 lists the same information for the year 2040.

    APPROVED DEVELOPMENT As with the population data, the geographic placement of the employment data took into account the available land area. These available land area calculations were restricted to the approved development areas. Since redevelopment is more common for service and commercial sites, the employment growth (other than for the approved developments) was assumed to occur at their current locations and current employment sector.

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    Table 14: Year 2010 and 2040 Employment by Sectors

    NAICS* Employment Sectors Year 2010 Year 2040 Percent of Total

    11 Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 2,080 4,341 0.3% 21 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 420 517 0.1% 23 Construction 51,998 77,230 7.5%

    31-33 Manufacturing 47,509 63,126 6.9% 48-49 Transportation and Warehousing 27,083 35,243 3.9%

    Sub Total Industrial Sector 129,090 180,457 18.7% 22 Utilities 1,937 2,473 0.3% 42 Wholesale Trade 26,443 34,991 3.8%

    44-45 Retail Trade 90,336 120,934 13.1% 72 Accommodation and Food Services 61,204 85,846 8.8%

    Sub Total Commercial Sector 179,920 244,244 26.0% 51 Information 16,832 23,466 2.4% 52 Finance and Insurance 46,078 61,827 6.7% 53 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 16,952 25,475 2.4% 54 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 35,687 49,762 5.2% 55 Management of Companies and Enterprises 5,746 7,469 0.8%

    56 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 40,938 55,660 5.9%

    61 Educational Services 43,066 62,810 6.2% 62 Health Care and Social Assistance 76,661 107,820 11.1% 71 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 9,299 14,731 1.3% 81 Other Services (except Public Administration) 31,374 45,037 4.5% 99 Public Administration 60,337 83,520 8.7%

    Sub Total Service Sector 382,970 537,577 55.3%

    Total 691,980 962,278 100.0% The distribution of employment by sector is kept constant for the year 2040 with exception of the DRIs, which are not reflected in Table 14. The DRI development is incorporated on a per county basis and is handled differently in the Trend versus the Alternate Scenario. The Trend Scenario is based on the current relationship that exists between the counties distribution of population and employment as discussed previously. In the Trend Scenario the employment data identified in the DRI is added to match the calculated employment control total for the county as listed in Table 12, with the effect that the DRI employment only alters the distribution within the sectors. In the Alternate Scenario all employment identified by the different DRIs is added to the year 2040 dataset, which alters not only the distribution in employment related to the sectors but also the population employment ratio in the study area.

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    Table 15: Year 2010 Employment by Sector by County

    Employment Sectors Year 2010

    Baker Clay Duval Nassau Putnam St. Johns Total

    Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 69 77 551 351 501 531 2,080 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 41 276 8 82 13 420 Utilities 1 619 376 95 753 93 1,937 Construction 545 4,637 39,403 1,582 1,927 3,904 51,998 Manufacturing 171 1,546 39,670 1,027 2,837 2,258 47,509 Wholesale Trade 671 1,480 20,322 414 774 2,782 26,443 Retail Trade 1,112 11,450 61,371 3,329 3,223 9,851 90,336 Transportation and Warehousing 247 956 24,412 388 409 671 27,083 Information 599 859 13,882 201 211 1,080 16,832 Finance and Insurance 175 1,244 41,546 616 601 1,896 46,078 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 83 1,504 11,509 665 408 2,783 16,952

    Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 220 2,260 28,713 868 1,236 2,390 35,687 Management of Companies and Enterprises 0 177 5,425 32 25 87 5,746

    Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 82 1,420 35,270 810 984 2,372 40,938 Educational Services 573 5,327 27,718 1,920 2,349 5,179 43,066 Health Care and Social Assistance 1,194 6,908 57,340 2,307 2,688 6,224 76,661 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 61 1,523 5,009 583 117 2,006 9,299 Accommodation and Food Services 539 6,240 38,919 4,390 1,403 9,713 61,204

    Other Services (except Public Administration) 377 2,835 21,486 1,236 1,971 3,469 31,374

    Public Administration 677 3,351 45,944 3,304 2,649 4,412 60,337

    Total 7,396 54,454 519,142 24,126 25,148 61,714 691,980

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    Table 16: Year 2040 Total Sector Employment by County

    Employment Sectors Year 2040

    Baker Clay Duval Nassau Putnam St. Johns Total Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting 129 207 633 1,486 560 1,326 4,341 Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction 0 41 315 37 91 33 517

    Utilities 2 863 433 123 826 226 2,473 Construction 1,020 12,455 45,140 6,632 2,148 9,835 77,230 Manufacturing 321 4,152 45,455 4,344 3,166 5,688 63,126 Wholesale Trade 1,265 2,062 23,285 524 851 7,004 34,991 Retail Trade 2,083 15,951 70,362 4,194 3,533 24,811 120,934 Transportation and Warehousing 464 2,636 27,982 1,644 825 1,692 35,243 Information 1,123 1,318 17,836 244 231 2,714 23,466 Finance and Insurance 329 1,907 53,425 741 656 4,769 61,827 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 155 2,306 14,766 801 448 6,999 25,475 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 412 3,462 37,481 1,044 1,351 6,012 49,762 Management of Companies and Enterprises 0 273 6,914 41 27 214 7,469 Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services 153 2,176 45,319 974 1,077 5,961 55,660 Educational Services 1,074 8,165 35,652 2,305 2,574 13,040 62,810 Health Care and Social Assistance 2,237 10,477 73,825 2,770 2,946 15,565 107,820 Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 113 2,334 6,418 703 126 5,037 14,731 Accommodation and Food Services 1,007 8,694 44,615 5,529 1,537 24,464 85,846 Other Services (except Public Administration) 704 4,344 27,617 1,486 2,161 8,725 45,037 Public Administration 1,269 5,135 59,123 3,964 2,917 11,112 83,520

    Total 13,860 88,958 636,596 39,586 28,051 155,227 962,278

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    YEAR 2040 SCHOOL ENROLLMENT DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS 5.METHODOLOGY Unlike the earlier NERPM four step model, school enrollment data in the NERPM-AB separates the school enrollment data into three categories; kindergarten through 8th grade, 9th grade through 12th grade, and universities and colleges. As with the population and the employment data, the base year 2010 school enrollment data was developed by the North Florida TPO and no changes were made to the base year data set. As with the employment data, the school enrollment data is based on a logical relationship with the population data. In the NERPM-AB the population is stratified into the following age groups: less than 5, between 5 and 14, between 15 and 17, between 18 and 24, between 25 and 39, between 40 and 54, between 55 and 64, between 65 and 74 and over 75 years in age. The 2040 school enrollment projections were checked against the number of persons within the different age groups. For the kindergarten through 8th grade the age group of 5 through 14 was used, and for the 9th grade through 12th grade enrollment the age group of 15 through 17 was used as a guideline. It should be noted that the kindergarten starts at the age of 4, and high school continues through the age of 18, so the age groups are used as a guideline in projecting the school enrollment data and do not match exactly. Table 17 shows the relationship between the age groups in the 2010 base year data and the 2010 school enrollment data. The relationship between the population age groups and the school enrollment for the kindergarten through high school is maintained in the year 2040.

    Table 17: Year 2010 School Enrollment Data versus Age Group Data

    County Florida Department of Education 2009-2010 Enrollment Numbers

    Total NERPM-AB Age Groups

    Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

    9th Grade thru 12th Grade

    University and College

    5 thru 14 Years

    15 thru 17 Years

    Nassau 8,563 3,538 1,494 13,595 9,592 2,901 Duval 111,995 41,224 95,946 249,165 112,797 37,089 St. Johns 23,288 10,359 8,605 42,252 26,332 8,541 Clay 26,779 13,760 7,302 47,841 29,797 10,425 Baker 3,829 1,399 0 5,228 4,035 1,162 Putnam 9,051 3,090 7,409 19,550 9,212 2,670 Total 183,505 73,370 120,756 377,631 191,765 62,788

    To forecast 2040 school enrollment, a ratio is calculated using total 2010 age group and 2010 total enrollment data. This ratio is multiplied by the 2040 age group forecast as shown in Table 18. Subsequently, 2040 school enrollment county totals are divided and assigned to TAZs using the same relationship and student enrollment percentage in each TAZ for 2010. The relationship between 2010 school enrollment and age groups is kept the same as 2040. Unless specific information was provided by the School Board, the Florida Department of Education (FLDOE) or the County about new facilities, it was assumed that the increase of enrollment is addressed at existing facilities.

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    Table 18: Year 2040 School Enrollment Projections versus Age Group Projections

    County Total NERPM-AB Age Groups

    Kindergarten thru 8th Grade

    9th Grade thru 12th Grade

    University and College

    5 thru 14 Years

    15 thru 17 Years

    Nassau 13,389 5,584 1,805 20,779 14,998 4,579 Duval 141,606 52,601 114,890 309,092 142,620 47,325 St. Johns 49,317 24,151 10,875 84,343 55,763 19,913 Clay 40,947 21,095 8,057 70,100 45,562 15,982 Baker 5,576 2,037 0 7,614 5,876 1,692 Putnam 9,757 3,339 9,014 22,108 9,931 2,885 Total 260,592 108,807 144,641 514,036 274,750 92,376

    At the TAZ, District and County level, 2040 Elementary, Middle School, High School and Universities/Colleges enrollment totals were checked against FLDOE, County School Board, and the 2010 base year data sources. FLDOE provided the following data:

    Public School enrollment data from 2001 to 2012 Private School enrollment data from 2008 to 2009 Public Universities enrollment data from 1997 to 2013 Independent Colleges and Universities of Florida (ICUF) enrollment data from 2000 to 2012 Florida College System enrollment data from 2003 to 2018 Commission of Independent Education enrollment data from 2009 to 2012

    County School Boards provided the following data:

    Clay 2013 to 2023 Public School forecast enrollment by school name Duval 2000 to 2020 Public School forecast enrollment by school name Duval Long Range Facility Master Plan (March 2007) Nassau 2013 to 2024 Public School enrollment by grade Nassau 2013 2014 5-year District Facilities Work Program St Johns 2013 2014 5-year District Facilities Work Program St Johns 2008 County School Concurrency, Public School Facilities Element Data and Analysis report

    The School Boards in the six counties were contacted to obtain information on possible new school buildings. As a result, one new school was added in St. Johns County in the Twin Creeks DRI. The 2040 colleges and universities enrollment forecasts where not linked to the population data since these institutions have students who do not permanently reside within the study area. Instead, the 2009-2010 enrollment totals were compared with the additional enrollment numbers obtained from the different institutions. The Florida College System provided forecasts to the year 2019 for enrollment at the Florida State College Campuses and the St. Johns River College. The last year of enrollment data available for the University of North Florida, Flagler College, and Everest University, Florida Coastal School of Law, University of St. Augustine, and the independent colleges was 2012.

    24 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    In most of the cases the enrollment either decreased or remained the same. In light of the minimum increase of enrollment numbers and the development of on-line schooling for colleges and universities the forecasts are made in a conservative manner. The enrollment figures obtained for the last available year is increased by 1% in a compounded rate up to the year 2030 and assumed to be constant through the year 2040. If, due to the decrease in enrollment between the 2009-2010 enrollment and 2012-2013 enrollment figure, the 2040 projection resulted to be lower than the 2009-2010 numbers, the 2009-2010 enrollment numbers were used. Table 17 provides the numbers for 2010, and Table 18 provides the enrollment numbers for 2040.

    REASONABLENESS CHECKS The first check made was to verify the number of schools within each TAZ against the TAZs enrollment numbers. This was done by comparing the FLDOE data against the 2010 base year school enrollment data by TAZ. GIS layers and aerials were used when there was a discrepancy. Next, 2010 number of persons in age group 5-14 was compared with elementary and middle school enrollment by county, and the 15-17 age group population was compared with high school enrollment data by county. This analysis was developed for each county and for each district. The 2040 school enrollment was checked to make sure school enrollment countywide did not exceed an average enrollment of 1,200 per school for both elementary and middle schools and the high school enrollment did not exceed 2,000 students per school. These limits were based on county wide totals.

    25 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS BY COUNTY 6.

    The process described above was used in the projections of the data for the six counties and the municipalities. The following sections discuss what particular changes were made in each of the counties and the municipalities within them.

    NASSAU COUNTY

    NASSAU COUNTY YEAR 2040 POPULATION DATA DEVELOPMENT PROCESS In 2010 Nassau County had a population of 73,314. According to BEBRs medium population projection, the population in the year 2040 is expected to be 116,700 growing by 43,386 persons. This represents a growth rate of 59% and an annual growth rate of 2%. As shown on Figure 3, within Nassau County there are three municipalities. The 2010 Census data regarding population and persons per household (PHH) is as follows: Nassau County 73,314 persons 2.59 PHH Town of Callahan 1,123 persons 2.36 PHH Town of Hilliard 3,086 persons 2.65 PHH City of Fernandina Beach 11,487 persons 2.37 PHH As noted on Table 3, Nassau County has 46,042 acres of vacant residential parcels, and the Census reported 18% of the housing units vacant. The vacancy rate in Nassau County is approximately 9%, excluding the City of Fernandina Beach. The City of Fernandina Beach has a high percentage of seasonal housing units, which is reflected in the vacancy rate of 32%. Figure 4 shows the locations of the vacant residential parcels in red and the vacant housing units in the pink colored census blocks.

    As requested by the Nassau County staff, the vacancy rate reported by the year 2010 Census was reduced by assigning 1,670 households to the vacant units. The reduction in vacancy rate was applied to TAZs with more than 10 housing units and a vacancy rate greater than 10%. The vacancy rate was reduced by half for those TAZs with the above mentioned characteristics. In total 29 TAZs were adjusted. Nassau County has a no shortage of developable parcels. Many of which are listed as timberland or other agricultural uses. The vacant residential parcels are primarily located in the East Nassau Community Planning Area (ENCPA), which has an approved development plan. In the City of Fernandina Beach the vacant residential parcels were used in the projection of future development (see Figure 5). Growth anticipated by the Fernandina Beach staff has been documented and can be found in Appendix A. The population projections are shown in Table 19. Both Callahans and Hilliards input are also documented in Appendix A and illustrated in Table 19.

    26 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • 9017

    17

    90

    301

    23

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    1

    301

    13 212

    211

    10

    105A1A

    A1A8

    20823

    15

    2

    228

    A1A

    105

    109 A1A

    105A1A

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    115

    115109

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    116

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    LegendNassau Cnty TAZ Numbers and Boundaries

    MunicipalitiesCITY OF FERNANDINA BEACHTOWN OF CALLAHANTOWN OF HILLIARDUNINCORPORATED NASSAU COUNTYConservation LandsWater BodiesRoadway System

    2040 Long Range Transportation PlanFigure 3 - Nassau County Municipal Boundaries 0 3.5 7 Miles0 10,560 Feet

    Date: 10/28/2014 27

  • 9017

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    211

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    7845

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    88

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    68

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    54

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    126

    115

    102

    73

    55

    72

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    39

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    83

    44

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    1

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    53

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    101 17

    10

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    120123

    34

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    6358

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    364 9

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    LegendNassau Cnty TAZ Numbers and Boundaries Nassau Cnty Vacant Residential Parcels LUCode 000Nassau Cnty Censusblocks with Vacant UnitsNassau Cnty Year 2010 Parcel DataConservation LandsWater BodiesRoadway System

    2040 Long Range Transportation PlanFigure 4 - Nassau County Vacant Parcels and

    Census Blocks with Vacant Units 0 3.5 7 Miles0 10,560 Feet

    Date: 10/28/2014 28

  • 35

    2

    36

    17

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    LegendFacility Type

    Not in NetworkFreewayDivided ArterialUndivided ArterialCollectorCentriod ConnectorOne-wayTAZ Boundaries and NumbersVacant Residential Parcels LUCode 0002010 Census Blocks with Vacant UnitsNassau County Parcel DataConservation LandsWater Bodies

    2040 Long Range Transportation PlanFigure 5 - Fernandina Beach Vacant Residential

    Parcels and Census Blocks with Vacant Units 0 0.35 0.7 Miles0 5,280 Feet

    Date: 10/28/2014 29

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    Approved Development Most of Nassau Countys growth is expected to take place within the ENCPA. This area is located in TAZs 37, 39, 41, 42, 44, 46, 48, 52, 65 and 66 and is depicted in Figure 6. Based on input from the Nassau County staff, the following developments were added first:

    The area of TAZs 46, 52, 65 and 66 is expected to add 2,000 single-family units. TAZ 37 is expected to add 600 single-family units. TAZ 55 (Three Rivers DRI) is permitted to build 3,200 units. TAZ 53 and 56 (Yulee Woods) 357 single-family units in TAZ 53 and 714 single-family units in TAZ 56. TAZ 54 includes an approved PUD add 115 single-family units. TAZ 17 add 100 single-family units.

    Households were first assigned to the approved developments. Next the vacancy rate was reduced and lastly single-family units were assigned to vacant residential parcels based on the densities allowed by the FLUM. The assumed household size was 2.67 for the new development, which was based on the household size in Yulee Woods, a fairly recent development. As stated earlier, all three municipalities provided specific directions regarding the growth in the population and the number of housing units. These details are listed in the meeting summaries in Appendix A: Coordination, and the numbers are reflected in the 2040 population projections listed in Table 19. Group Quarter and Seasonal Population In Nassau County the Year 2010 Census reported that 543 persons resided in group quarters. Group quarters population is included in the total population number of the 2040 BEBR projections. No specific information was provided by Nassau County regarding group quarter or seasonal population, so these numbers were kept constant.

    30 Technical Memorandum #3: 2040 Data Sets December 12, 2014

  • 2040 Long Range Transportation PlanFigure 6 - Nassau County Future Land Use Map 0 3.5 7 Miles0 10,560 Feet

    Date: 9/8/2014 31

  • North Florida Transportation Planning Organization Path Forward 2040 Long Range Transportation Plan

    Table 19: Nassau County Year 2010 and 2040 Population Living in Households (HH)

    District TAZ Municipality or Development

    Year 2010 Population

    living in HH

    Growth Population Year 2010 - 2040 in

    HH

    Year 2040 Population

    living in HH

    Year 2010 Total HH

    Growth HH

    Year 2010 - 2040

    Year 2040 Total HH

    4 108 Callahan 100 104 204 38 39 77 4 109 Callahan 118 63 181 45 24 69 4 110 Callahan 28 0 28 12 0 12 4 112 Callahan 72 17 89 33 8 41 4 113 Callahan 186 25 211 74 10 84 4 114 Callahan 19 11 30 9 5 14 4 116 Callahan 417 49 466 195 23 218 4 100 Callahan annex 1,112 455 1,567 410 168 578 4 104 Callahan annex 1,744 1,106 2,850 601 381 982 4 117 Callahan annex 646 554 1,200 231 198 429 4 118 Callahan annex 917 295 1,212 306 148 454 2 37 ENCPA 2 2,054 2,056 1 769 770 2 46 ENCPA 46 3,029 3,075 19 1,251 1,270 2 52 ENCPA 1,329 1,504 2,833 487 574 1,061 2 65 ENCPA 64 2,451 2,515 175 767 942 2 66 ENCPA 7 2,228 2,235 4 833 837 1 1 Fernandina Beach 225 0 225 119 0 119 1 2 Fernandina Beach 1,582 0 1,582 659 0 659 1 3 Fernandina Beach 88 167 255 39 74 113 1 4 Fernandina Beach 508 217 725 272 116 388 1 5 Fernandina Beach 718 181 899 338 85 423 1 6 Fernandina Beach 168 66 234 76 30 106 1 7 Fernandina Beach 1,267 421 1,688 482 160 642 1 8 Fernandina Beach 874 33 907 392 15 407 1 9 Fernandina Beach 1,020 103 1,123 456 46 502 1 12 Fernandina Beach 1,219 289 1,508 653 155 808 1 13 Fernandina Beach 1,210 170 1,380 568 80 648 1 14 Fernandina Beach 1,906 208 2,114 915 100 1,015 1 16 Fernandina Beach 1,058 200 1,258 424 80 504 1 17 Fernandina Beach and Nassau 566 329 895 251 146 397 3 78 Hilliard 672 103 775 258 39 297 3 79 Hilliard 72 0 72 27 0 27 3 84 Hilliard 368 194 562 133 70 203 3 87 Hilliard 571 900 1,471 220 347 567 2 54 PUD 3,677 2,894 6,571 1,342 1,119 2,461 2 55 Three Rivers 1,707 8,343 10,050 564 3,200 3,764 2 53 Yulee Woods 3,810 953 4,763 1,427 357 1,784 2 56 Yulee Woods 1,853 1,899 3,752 691 714 1,405 Remaining Area 40,825 11,797 52,598 16