7
MAY 2008 M NEYBEE MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT.LTD. 212 Veena Chambers, 21 Dalal Streets, Fort, Mumbai- 400001 KNOW VENTURE KNOW GAIN t: +91 22 40302010 f: +91 22 40302000 e: info@moneybee.in w: www.moneybee.in RESEARCH REPORT Chairman: BSE Code: 511389 Venugopal Dhoot Face Value: Rs. 10 Chairman’s Office: CMP: Rs. 351 (as on 13.05.2008) 14 KM Stone, Market Cap: Rs. 7647 Cr. Village Chittegaon Paithan Road, 52 Wk Hi/Low: 869/242 Aurangabad, Maharashtra: 431105. Equity: Rs. 223Cr. t: +91-02431-251501 BV: Rs. 260 w: www.videoconworld.com EPS (TTM): 43.42 CMP: Rs. 342 Price/ BV: 1.37 Price Target: Rs. 540 Price/ EPS: 8.06 Dividend Yield: 1 % of Shares Dematerialised: 96.91 HIGHLIGHTS OF VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD (“VIL”) India’s No.1 Consumer Electronics & Home Appliances Company. Implements Complete Backward Integration from sand to branded TV’s. 30% market share in Consumer Electronics & Durables. Low production cost from Ravva Oil drives up the bottom line. Will soon foray into DTH, Retail, Telecom & Power. Diversified goods portfolio. Caters to lower, middle & premium segments of the market. Wide distribution network. 9 major brands under its kit. Recently acquired Planet M. VIL’S PORTAL Consumer Durables & Electronics Appliances Oil & Natural Gas Exploration DTH Retail Telecom Power Broadband Semiconductors Photovoltaic cells Digital Imaging SEZ Steel News Channel Hospitality PERFORMANCE Sales- Increase in Turnover from 7,580 Cr to 8,710 Cr EBIDTA- Increase of 23% to Rs. 1,811 Cr Dividend- 35% Oil & Gas segment achieves higher OP margin. However, electronics segment margins are getting shrinked. Huge capex allocation for breakthrough of new oil & gas exploration blocks. MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~ RESEARCH REPORT ~ VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD 1 KEY FINNANCIALS (Rs. in Cr) Yr Ended Net Sales Op Profit OP Margin% Net Profit EPS CEPS 2007 8710 1811 21 855 38 57 2008E 10085 2017 20 929 42 63 2009P 11869 2374 20 1025 45 72 INDUSTRY: DIVERSIFIED COMPANY NAME: VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD (VIL) Recommendation: BUY MARKET ON TOH VIDEOCON 1 YEAR CHART 0 200 400 600 800 1000 2500 7500 12500 17500 22500 SENSEX VIL SHARE HOLDING PATTERN AS ON 31 st MAR’ 08 Chart 2 Source: BSE India 68% 14% 4% 4% 5% 5% Promoters Custodians MF/FI FII Public Corporate Bodies

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Page 1: 3819692 Videocon Research Report

MAY 2008

M NEYBEE MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT.LTD. 212 Veena Chambers, 21 Dalal Streets, Fort, Mumbai- 400001 KNOW VENTURE KNOW GAIN t: +91 22 40302010 f: +91 22 40302000 e: [email protected] w: www.moneybee.in

RESEARCH REPORT

• Chairman: BSE Code: 511389 Venugopal Dhoot Face Value: Rs. 10

• Chairman’s Office: CMP: Rs. 351 (as on 13.05.2008) 14 KM Stone, Market Cap: Rs. 7647 Cr. Village Chittegaon Paithan Road, 52 Wk Hi/Low: 869/242 Aurangabad, Maharashtra: 431105. Equity: Rs. 223Cr. t: +91-02431-251501 BV: Rs. 260 w: www.videoconworld.com EPS (TTM): 43.42 CMP: Rs. 342 Price/ BV: 1.37 Price Target: Rs. 540 Price/ EPS: 8.06 Dividend Yield: 1 % of Shares Dematerialised: 96.91

HIGHLIGHTS OF VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD (“VIL”)

• India’s No.1 Consumer Electronics & Home Appliances Company. • Implements Complete Backward Integration from sand to branded TV’s. • 30% market share in Consumer Electronics & Durables. • Low production cost from Ravva Oil drives up the bottom line. • Will soon foray into DTH, Retail, Telecom & Power. • Diversified goods portfolio. • Caters to lower, middle & premium segments of the market. • Wide distribution network. • 9 major brands under its kit. Recently acquired Planet M.

VIL’S PORTAL

• Consumer Durables & Electronics Appliances • Oil & Natural Gas Exploration • DTH • Retail • Telecom • Power • Broadband • Semiconductors • Photovoltaic cells • Digital Imaging • SEZ • Steel • News Channel • Hospitality

PERFORMANCE

• Sales- Increase in Turnover from 7,580 Cr to 8,710 Cr • EBIDTA- Increase of 23% to Rs. 1,811 Cr • Dividend- 35% • Oil & Gas segment achieves higher OP margin. • However, electronics segment margins are getting shrinked. • Huge capex allocation for breakthrough of new oil & gas exploration

blocks.

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~ RESEARCH REPORT ~ VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD 1

KEY FINNANCIALS (Rs. in Cr)

Yr Ended

Net Sales

Op Profit

OP Margin%

Net Profit

EPS CEPS

2007 8710 1811 21 855 38 57

2008E 10085 2017 20 929 42 63

2009P 11869 2374 20 1025 45 72

INDUSTRY: DIVERSIFIED COMPANY NAME: VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD (VIL)

Recommendation: BUY

MARKET ON TOH

VIDEOCON

1 YEAR CHART

0

200

400

600

800

1000

2500

7500

12500

17500

22500

SENSEX VIL

SHARE HOLDING PATTERN AS ON 31st

MAR’ 08

Chart 2 Source: BSE India

68%14%

4%

4% 5%5% Promoters

Custodians

MF/FI

FII

Public

Corporate Bodies

Page 2: 3819692 Videocon Research Report

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~

COLOUR TELEVISIONS (CTV)

CTV

LCD

PLASMA

CONVEN-TIONAL

TV

34" TV

SLIM

FLAT

REFRIGERATOR

REFRIGERATOR

FROST FREE

DIRECT COOL

SIDE BY

SIDE

AIR CONDITIONERS (AC)

AC

SPLIT

WINDOW

TOWER

CASSETTE

WASHING MACHINES

WASHING MACHINES

FULLY AUTOMATED

SEMI AUTOMATED

CONSUMER DURABLES & ELECTRONICS APPLIANCES

• In the last decade, consumer durables industry has

spike led by increased in disposable income levels in families.• The rise in level income has transformed the visage of the Indian

lifestyle. • Indian consumer durables industry has posted a growth of 21% in 2007

compared to 2006 with sales of Rs. 11,609 Cr & Rs. 10,684 Cr for consumer electronics & home appliances respectively.

• A new wave of high tech products has emerged in consumer preference.• VIL’s dream to become one of the top five players in

backed by recent appointment of Kwang-Ro Kim former LG CEO as group chairman & MD for its domestic as well as overseas business. COLOUR TELEVISION

• CTV is the foremost product in the consumer electronics segment.• CTV has witnessed sales of Rs. 9,741 Cr with a growth of 12%

to 2006. • VIL’s existing capacity is 5.6 mn units & has • CTV segment has witnessed evolution of LCD’s, Flat, Slim & Ultra Slim

TV’s over conventional CTV. • The market for Flat Panel Display’s has grown at an exponential rate of

430%. Sales have been boosted in Tier II cities as well.• Plasma TV’s have found their place in corporate offices, shopping malls,

airports, railways, etc. where there is public viewing• FPD market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 65% for next 5 years.• VIL is in talks with leading international players, including Samsung and

Sony, for original equipment supplies of hightalks succeed, this will catapult Videocon’global.

• VIL has set up a $200-million plant in Italy for manufacturing LCD panels, is currently test marketing its products in the European markets. REFRIGERTOR

• VIL’s in-house capacity to manufacture company in terms of price benefit.

• VIL’s refrigerators are put up for sale in the market under various brand names such as Electrolux, Kelvinator, Kenstar & Videocon.

• Refrigerator market has grown @ 22% in 2007 backnew product as well as replacement market.

• Demand for frost free segment is on a higher side. Electrolux & Kenstar looks after frost free segment. AIR CONDITIONER

• AC market has topped the chart with a phenomenal growth of 59%.• VIL believes per capita consumption for AC is on a higher side with

increase in affordability. Consumers living in 3 or 4 BHK houses are going for more than one AC & this trend has emerged across the board.

• Customers prefer for Split AC sine it requires less space, low noise levels & glossy appearance.

WASHING MACHINE

• Washing machines market contributed 25% growth to the overall home appliance growth of 33% in 2007.

• Top loading category is getting more popular than conventional front loading

• With injection moulding & motors manufacturing under one roofoptimistic to do well in the years to come.

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~ RESEARCH REPORT ~ VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD

BY

CONSUMER DURABLES & ELECTRONICS APPLIANCES

In the last decade, consumer durables industry has witnessed a huge spike led by increased in disposable income levels in families. The rise in level income has transformed the visage of the Indian

Indian consumer durables industry has posted a growth of 21% in 2007 f Rs. 11,609 Cr & Rs. 10,684 Cr for

consumer electronics & home appliances respectively. A new wave of high tech products has emerged in consumer preference. VIL’s dream to become one of the top five players in industry has been

Ro Kim former LG CEO as group chairman & MD for its domestic as well as overseas business.

CTV is the foremost product in the consumer electronics segment. CTV has witnessed sales of Rs. 9,741 Cr with a growth of 12% compared

apacity is 5.6 mn units & has target of 6 mn units for 2008. CTV segment has witnessed evolution of LCD’s, Flat, Slim & Ultra Slim

The market for Flat Panel Display’s has grown at an exponential rate of in Tier II cities as well.

Plasma TV’s have found their place in corporate offices, shopping malls, airports, railways, etc. where there is public viewing. FPD market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 65% for next 5 years.

is in talks with leading international players, including Samsung and Sony, for original equipment supplies of high-end LCDs. If the ongoing talks succeed, this will catapult Videocon’s ongoing efforts at going

million plant in Italy for manufacturing LCD panels, is currently test marketing its products in the European markets.

house capacity to manufacture compressors serves well for

VIL’s refrigerators are put up for sale in the market under various brand names such as Electrolux, Kelvinator, Kenstar & Videocon. Refrigerator market has grown @ 22% in 2007 backed by strong sales of new product as well as replacement market. Demand for frost free segment is on a higher side. Electrolux & Kenstar

AC market has topped the chart with a phenomenal growth of 59%. VIL believes per capita consumption for AC is on a higher side with

Consumers living in 3 or 4 BHK houses are going for more than one AC & this trend has emerged across the board.

t requires less space, low noise levels

Washing machines market contributed 25% growth to the overall home

Top loading category is getting more popular than conventional front

With injection moulding & motors manufacturing under one roof VIL is to do well in the years to come.

2

Page 3: 3819692 Videocon Research Report

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~

MANUFACTURING CAPACITY (mn)

Components Capacity Finished

Products

Capacity

CPTs 22 TV sets 5.6

Glass panels 32 Refrigerators 2.5

Glass funnels 6 Washing Mc. 1

Compressors 5 AC 0.4

THOMSON PLANTS

POLAND

•1Integrated CPT, Glass & Component plant

MEXICO

•1 CPT Plant

CHINA

•2 CPT plants

MULTI BRAND SHOPPING CART

KELVINATOR SANSUI KENSTAR

ELECTROLUX AKAI KENWOOD

HYUNDAI TOSHIBA NEXT

THOMSON VIDEOCON DEAL

*VI: VIDEOCON INTERNATIONAL

VIL

VIL

T H O M S O N

$240M $224

M

VIL

$16M VI

TUBE

MULTI BRAND SHOPPING CART

• Over the years Videocon’s tactic was to buy distraughtover the world and revive them by making lowand elsewhere.

• Consumers depending on their annual income will switch onto different brands from time to time.

• VIL’s study reveals that spotlight on one brand will not cater to different segments of the market.

• VIL therefore serves a range of products through its multi brand shopping cart.

• VIL’s multi-product plan has assisted company to achieve a place at top of the podium with 30% market share.

• VIL is triumphant in churning loss making brands to productive integrating them with its existing manufacturing plants.

• VIL is the only domestic company to survive in razorthanks to its diversified product portfolio.

GLASS COMPONENTS

• VIL’s glass components division coupled with Thomson CPT acts as a boon to its CPT segment.

• VIL’s high tech CRT products offers a betterfunnels which are prime necessities for large size, flat & slim CPT.

• Apart from glass shells company also has in house facility to manufacture electron guns & metal parts for CPTs.

• VIL’ s glass division under the banner Videocon Narmada Glass (VNG)supplies TV glass to CPT plants in Europe,

• VIL’s clientele includes BPL, JCT Electronics, Hotline, Samtel Colour, Thomson & Toshiba.

• VIL produces 32 mn CPT Glass panels per annum in making it as 3

rd largest CTV glass producer in world.

• VIL’s backward integration from sand to branded TV’s allows company to enjoy cost benefit advantage over its peers.

THOMSON CPT

• VIL is only one of its kinds in the world to convert sand to TV.• VIL has led to discovery of world famous technologies like Super

Flat CPT, Slim CPT, Extra Slim CPT & HD 16:9 format CPT.• VIL had bought debt free Thomson’s CPT division • Clientele includes TTE, Sanyo, Sharp, JVC, Konka, Skyworth, Beko, Vestel,

TTE & Horizont. • VIL will have access to Thomson’s R&D facilities which will facilitate up

gradation of technology. • VIL has an edge over its competitors since it has

1000 patents. • VIL would further strengthen its position by selling new high tech

products in domestic as well as overseas market.• Globally, prices of CPT are on lower side due to intense competition.

However, raw material prices are not decreasing in synergy products.

• VIL’s integration of glass shell unit with Thomson CPT would enable it to enjoy cost benefit in terms of production cost & it will also reduce throughput time.

• Along with Thomson VIL also acquired Indian Electrolux, Sweden.

• VIL’s strategic partners Thomson & Electrolux both acquired 15% & 5% stake respectively in VIL showing signs of faith in top drawer of the company.

• VIL-Thomson synergy has devised a bunch of strategies for its cost, production, sales & industry to register themglass shells manufacturer in the world.

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~ RESEARCH REPORT ~ VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD

Capacity

5.6

2.5

1

0.4

CHINA

2 CPT plants

KENSTAR

KENWOOD

VIL VIL

VI

was to buy distraught companies all by making low-cost components in India

Consumers depending on their annual income will switch onto different

VIL’s study reveals that spotlight on one brand will not cater to different

therefore serves a range of products through its multi brand

company to achieve a place at top

in churning loss making brands to productive assets by integrating them with its existing manufacturing plants.

is the only domestic company to survive in razor thin margin industry

VIL’s glass components division coupled with Thomson CPT acts as a

products offers a better-quality range of panels & funnels which are prime necessities for large size, flat & slim CPT. Apart from glass shells company also has in house facility to manufacture electron guns & metal parts for CPTs.

der the banner Videocon Narmada Glass (VNG) South East Asia & Russia.

VIL’s clientele includes BPL, JCT Electronics, Hotline, Samtel Colour,

panels per annum in India & Poland largest CTV glass producer in world.

VIL’s backward integration from sand to branded TV’s allows company to enjoy cost benefit advantage over its peers.

VIL is only one of its kinds in the world to convert sand to TV. VIL has led to discovery of world famous technologies like Super True Flat CPT, Slim CPT, Extra Slim CPT & HD 16:9 format CPT.

division for US$ 290 mn. Clientele includes TTE, Sanyo, Sharp, JVC, Konka, Skyworth, Beko, Vestel,

VIL will have access to Thomson’s R&D facilities which will facilitate up

VIL has an edge over its competitors since it has an access to more than

VIL would further strengthen its position by selling new high tech products in domestic as well as overseas market. Globally, prices of CPT are on lower side due to intense competition. However, raw material prices are not decreasing in synergy with finished

VIL’s integration of glass shell unit with Thomson CPT would enable it to enjoy cost benefit in terms of production cost & it will also reduce

acquired Indian operations of AB

VIL’s strategic partners Thomson & Electrolux both acquired 15% & 5% stake respectively in VIL showing signs of faith in top drawer of the

Thomson synergy has devised a bunch of strategies for its cost, them as one of the largest CPT &

3

Page 4: 3819692 Videocon Research Report

CRUDE OIL & NATURAL GAS

• Oil is the single most important commodity that holds the position of a key factor in each and every economy of the world.

• India held’s sixth spot as largest consumer of oil in the world & will soon grab fifth spot in next 2 years.

• Primary energy requirement would grow at double the current level in order to fuel the needs of growing economy.

• Oil demand is fuelled by growing competitiveness of the industrial sector.

• India’s demand for oil is expected to grow at an annual growth rate of 3.6% whereas domestic production is expected to grow at approximately 2.5%.

• Over the past decade, domestic production of crude oil has not remained in tandem with growth in domestic consumption over the same period.

• The demand supply gap will make India one of the largest crude oil consumers along with China; together, the two countries will account for nearly 35% of the world’s incremental energy demand.

• Eleventh Five Year Plan estimated that oil consumption would increase at 2.4% annually

• Companies are on constant hunt for alternative fuels like gas since crude prices are on a roll.

• Demand for natural gas stands at 231 mmscmd whereas India’s current gas production is 94.84 mmscmd.

• With 62% of total CBM area remains unexplored; VIL has realized the potential & is now venturing into gas distribution as well.

• VIL plans to undertake gas distribution in Andhra Pradesh in Phase I & in Gujarat & Tamil Nadu in Phase II. VIL dispatches 1000 million cubic meters of gas annually.

• Company is constantly on the lookout for strategic tie-ups in exploration & Prospecting. A consortium comprising of VIL, GAIL, OILEX, BPCL & HPCL with participating interest of 25%, 25% 25%, 12.5% & 12.5% respectively was allotted Block No.56 in Oman for further exploration & development.

• Oilex currently has drilling underway at the Block 56 where the exploration well, Sarha-1, spudded on 31 December 2007 and has recorded oil shows in the two main objective horizons.

• The well is the first of three exploration wells which will be drilled in continuous sequence by Oilex at Block 56, to be followed by four wells in Q3 and a further four wells in Q4.

• Sarha-1 has a best estimate resource of 20 million barrels of oil in place (mmstboip) in the shallower, Permian objective, plus significant additional exploration upside in the Cambrian formation. The second and third wells, Ghadaq-1 and Alyanbhou-1, have a best estimate resource of 14 mmstboip and 135 mmstboip respectively, suggesting significant potential for a large scale discovery within Oilex's Oman Block 56. VIL also has an MOU with Oilex in Australia for exploration projects in & around the sea.

• Optimal locations for infill wells have been selected on the basis of 3D seismic data. An extensive offshore infill development and exploration drilling programme on Ravva commenced in October 2006 and is nearing completion. Production has now commenced from three new infill wells and one appraisal well. In addition, two water injection wells have also been drilled and put into service to enhance the reservoir water-flood scheme. The Ravva field has been on plateau for a number of years and the current drilling programme is aimed at continuing the strong production performance at Ravva.

• The rig is currently operating on an exploration well, RX-8, on the MM301 prospect, which has to date discovered 44m of oil and gas pay in four Lower to Upper Miocene age sands. A further three work-over wells are planned to enhance production capacity. Earlier in the year the RX-10 exploration well encountered 11m of gas pay in Late Miocene sands.

• The work programme at WA-388P (Western Australia) comprises further technical studies and reprocessing of existing seismic data and acquisition of 3D seismic over parts of the block, anticipated to commence in 2008.

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~ RESEARCH REPORT ~ VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD 4

VIL’S OIL & NATURAL GAS PARTICULARS

OIL FIELD RAVVA

LOCATION ANDHRA PRADESH

OIL RESERVES 250 MM BARRELS

YIELD 50000 BOPD*

VIL’S SHARE 25% (12500 BOPD)

CRUDE TYPE PREMIUM LIGHT

SULPHUR CONTENT BELOW 0.01%

SUPPLIER HPCL & BRPL

INDIA’S TOTAL OIL

PRODUCTION (ITOP)

660000 BOPD

RAVVA FIELD’S SHARE IN

ITOP

8% APPROX.

CONSORTIUM MEMBERS & THEIR SHARE IN FIELD

ONGC 40%

CAIRN ENERGY UK 25%

MARUBENI CORP. JAPAN 12.5%

GAS PRODUCTION 2.7 MMSCMD

SUPPLIER GAIL

* BARRELS OF OIL PER DAY

CRUDE OIL (MMT)

SOURCE: DGH

0

100

200

300

400

Demand

Supply

FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS- RAVVA OIL FIELD (Rs. in Cr)

Financial Year 2007 2008E 2009P

No. of

Barrels/Day

12500 12500 12500

Annual

Production (Cr)

0.45 0.45 0.45

Net Sales 1410 1825 2007

Selling

Cost/Barrel

78$ 100$ 110$

Production

Cost/Barrel

14$ 20$ 20$

EBDITA from

Ravva Field

1150 1462 1642

EBDITA/Barrel 64$ 80$ 90$

VIL’s Share in

EBDITA@ 40%

460 584 657

Page 5: 3819692 Videocon Research Report

DHOOT SMELLS TRANSITION

• VIL is now heading for pursuing growth in domestic market by venturing into several new businesses such as DTH, Retail, Telecom and Power.

• VIL’s new campaign has got off the ground by proposing four SPV’s & is on the watch out for partners coupled with financial & strategic potency.

• VIL has allotted huge capex for its new ventures (refer chart). • VIL has recently pitched for Motorola’s handset business which has been

valued at US$ 3.8billion. • A mix blend of debt, equity & internal accruals will auger well for VIL’s

fund raising plans. VIL’s management is confident of accruing their reserves by Rs.10000 Cr. over five years.

DTH

• VIL’s, media arm Bharat Business Channel has coup in Israeli technology

firm Gilat Satellite Networks for its foray into direct to home (DTH). Gilat's super encryption technology is an asset to Videocon.

• VIL will have direct access to Gilat’s market who is active throughout Asia Pacific, working with service providers like Bharti Broadband, HCL Comnet, Tatanet India, China Unicom, ChinaSat and Optus.

• DTH is seen as the successor to the virtually redundant conditional access system or CAS, which itself was introduced to combat local cable operators who under-reported subscriber numbers, sometimes by as much as 80 per cent.

• The firm also has satellite telephony as also satellite-based internet-access, which incorporates the most advanced IP technologies for real-time audio, video and data.

• VIL has recently picked up 8% stake in IOL Broadband. Currently there are more than 50m users of internet in India & is expected to touch 100m users in 2010.

• The idea is to have a DTH project at a cheaper cost than what has been touted till now by Tata Sky and the Subhash Chandra-controlled Dish TV, the two private sector DTH service providers in the country.

RETAIL, TELECOM & POWER

• VIL is eyeing the wholesale cash and carry business. It plans to set up 60

Cash & Carry stores at an investment of Rs 2,000 crore over the next three years. VIL anticipates the business will contribute Rs 6,000 crore to the group’s overall sales by 2013.

• The cash & carry business will retail food, grocery, apparel, footwear, consumer electronics, furnishings, hardware and general merchandise. VIL plans to set up around 40 large stores, each consisting of 75,000 to 1,00,000 sq ft across the country, for its cash & carry business by 2012.

• VIL operates a chain of more than 1,000 retail stores nationwide under the Next brand, through which it sells consumer durables.

• VIL’s recent acquisition Planet M will bolster its retail campaign. Planet M has 150 stores & is mainly into organized retail & home entertainment

• VIL intends to swell the turnover from its retail business to Rs.2000 Cr. of which half of it would be contributed by Plant M alone.

• VIL will set up a 1,000MW thermal power station at an investment of Rs 4,000 crore near Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh.

• VIL’s majority stake holder company Datacom has been recently awarded 21 new telecom licenses. VIL is now waiting for spectrum allocation.

• VIL points out that there should be 800 mn subscribers- a penetration rate of 67% against 20%.

• VIL aspires to bring call rates as low as 20 paise/min. • VIL is in the queue for down linking license to launch news channel. • After disclosing its plans to invest Rs. 1100 Cr. to build a semiconductor

facility, company is getting into components used in photovoltaic cells, which are used to generate solar energy. VIL is constructing a SEZ primarily to inhibit both its semiconductor & photovoltaic units. The global market of photovoltaic cells is about $1.5 billion.

• VIL has purchased 2000 acres of land to set up its 3 mtpa steel plant 5

EMERGENCE OF NEW DISTRIBUTION PLATFORMS (mn)

2.20.2 0

16

7

14

DTH IPTV Digital cable

2006 2010E

INVESTMENT IN NEW BUSINESSES (Rs. in mn)

10000

20000125000

100000 DTH

RETAIL

TELECOM

POWER

EXPECTED P&L FOR DTH INDUSTRY (2008-2016)

FY 2008 2009 2010 2012 2016

Net Sales 919 2221 4316 9314 20044

EBDITA -361 -288 269 1809 5515

PAT -472 -533 -132 1070 3367

TELECOM BOOM

0

200

400

600

2006 2007 2008 2010

No. of Subscribers (mn)

Page 6: 3819692 Videocon Research Report

INVESTMENT ARGUMENTS

• WELL POISED • GROWING CONSUMERISM • RAVVA OIL FIELD • MULTIPLE PRODUCT • GLOBAL FOOTPRINT • BACKWARD INTEGRATION • MULTI BRAND • GLASS SHELL • THOMSON CPT • HUGE CAPEX • BIG GETTING BIGGER

RISKS & CONCERNS

• Wafer thin margins in consumer durables & electronics segment • Organised retail stores pose a threat to company. • Huge capex plans will leverage VIL’s balance sheet by raising debt or

equity or both. • VIL has a lot more on the plate & its management has an onerous

task to execute its diversification plans in a judicious way.

VALUATION

• At the CMP of Rs. 342, the stock trades at a P/E of 8.14X

discounting its FY09P EPS of Rs. 45. • VIL plans to become one of the top 5 leading consumer durables in

the world & we believe there is no stopping in it. • We anticipate VIL to realize gain from its diversified campaign. Sales

will significantly excel in the years to come. • We commence coverage on the stock with a BUY recommendation

& a price target of 540 based on FY09 EPS of Rs. 45.

-Explored By: RIKEN MEHTA

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~ RESEARCH REPORT ~ VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES LTD 6

FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS- VIL (Rs. in Cr)

Year Accounts (Sept) 2007 2008E 2009P

Net Sales

Crude Oil 1410 1825 1957

Consumer Electronics 7300 8260 9912

Total 8710 10085 11869

Expenditure 6899 8068 9495

Operating Profit 1811 2017 2374

Depreciation 418 488 599

Interest 311 350 450

Tax 228 250 300

PAT 855 929 1025

No. of Shares 22.26 22.33 23

EPS 38 42 45

Cash EPS (CEPS) 57 63 72

P/E 8.06 - -

P/CEPS 6 - -

OPM% 21 20 20

FINANCIALS OF VIL. (RS IN CR)

2005-06 2006-07

Net Sales 7580 8710

Other Income 165 166

Gross Profit 6496 7064

Depreciation 335 419

Interest 226 311

Tax 95 228

Net Profit 819 859

Dividend (Rs.) 0 3.5

EPS 36.88 38.66

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Page 7: 3819692 Videocon Research Report

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~

MONEYBEE TEAM

DHIREN SHAH, MD dir: +91 22 40302001 m: +91 98337 70404e: [email protected]

CHETAN NAGDA, Head – Research dir: +91 22 40302050 m: +91 98207 51845e: [email protected]

PRIYAKANT DAVE, Research Analyst Sector: Cement, dir: +91 22 40302057 m: +91 98202 51123e: [email protected]

NIKET SHAH, Research Analyst Sector: Bank & Sugardir: +91 22 40302055 m: +91 98337 70414e: [email protected]

RIKEN MEHTA, Research Analyst Sector: Powerdir: +91 22 40302057 m: +91 98194 40348e: [email protected] ARPITA VAKIL, Technical Analyst Sector: Oil dir: +91 22 40302056 m: +91 98197 38621e: [email protected]

SAMIR SHAH, Head- Dealing dir: +91 22 40302020 m: +91 98337 70410e: [email protected]

HARISH SALIAN, Head – DP dir: +91 22 40302060 m: +91 98337 70408e: [email protected]

MONEYBEE SECURITIES PVT. LTD. ~ RESEARCH REPORT ~ VIDEOCON INDUSTRIES

+91 98337 70404

+91 98207 51845

search Analyst Sector: Cement, Telecom & Paper +91 98202 51123

Research Analyst Sector: Bank & Sugar +91 98337 70414

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+91 98197 38621

+91 98337 70410

+91 98337 70408

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