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54 TH OMNIBUS POLL “The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion” 217 Commercial St. Portland, Maine 04101 (207) 221-8877 www.panatlanticresearch.com October, 2018 “Most Accurate Pollster on Maine’s 2010 Gubernatorial Race” Nate Silver’s Polling Website #1 Ranked Maine-Based Pollster 2014 & 2018 Proprietary Report to the Office of the Public Advocate

54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

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Page 1: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

54TH OMNIBUS POLL“The Benchmark of Maine Public Opinion”

217 Commercial St.Portland, Maine 04101

(207) 221-8877www.panatlanticresearch.com October, 2018

“Most Accurate Pollster on Maine’s 2010 Gubernatorial Race”

Nate Silver’s Polling Website

#1 Ranked Maine-Based Pollster2014 & 2018

Proprietary Report to the Office of the Public

Advocate

Page 2: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Table of Contents

2

I. Background 3

II. Methodology 4

III. Results 7

IV. Sample Demographics 14

Appendix A: Survey Instrument

Appendix B: Statistical Cross-Tabulations

Page 3: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

I. Background

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• Pan Atlantic Research is a Maine based, independent market research and consulting firm which is currently in its 34th year of successful operation.

• This Omnibus Poll is the 54th poll in a series conducted by Pan Atlantic Research on public policy, business, economic, technology, and lifestyle issues.

• For further information about the poll, please contact Patrick O. Murphy, President, or Jason Edes, Director of Research, at (207) 221-8877 or by email at [email protected] and [email protected], respectively.

Page 4: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

• The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll was conducted between October 1st and October 7th, 2018.

• A randomly selected sample of 500 Maine residents (“likely voters”) was interviewed online. Participants were recruited using a panel provided by ResearchNow, a nationally known and highly respected research panel company.

• Data were weighted using US Census Bureau data to match the composition of Maine’s historical voting population based on Congressional District, age, education, income, and gender.PA

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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

II. Methodology

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• The survey was administered only to those who fulfilled the following criteria:

➢ Are “certain,” “very likely,” or “likely” to vote in the upcoming election on November 6th, 2018

➢ Are registered to vote in Maine

➢ Voted in the presidential election in 2016 (if age-eligible)

➢ Are ages 18 and older

➢ Do not, nor does anyone in their household, work for a market research, advertising or media firm

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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

II. Methodology

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• It should be noted that figures may not always equal 100.0 percent due to the rounding of decimals.

• After weights (for CD, education, income, age, and gender) have been applied, results which use all respondents have a margin of sampling error of approximately ± 4.4% at the 95% confidence level.

• The results are broken out by various demographic subsamples, including Congressional District, political party affiliation, age, and gender. The margins of error for specific sub-samples are higher than the ± 4.4% margin of sampling error for the entire sample.

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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

II. Methodology

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Page 7: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

III. Pan Atlantic 54th Omnibus Poll Results:

Affordable Energy Questions

7

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Page 8: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Respondents initially read the following paragraph:

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Affordable Energy Questions

The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the

interests of Maine consumers. The Office of the Public Advocate has

teamed up with an organization called Efficiency Maine to study

opportunities to help low-income Mainers improve energy efficiency in

their homes. The goal is to make Maine’s energy efficiency programs

more effective and to cut high energy costs for those who can least

afford them.

Page 9: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

After reading the preceding paragraph, 83.7% of respondents supported efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency.

• Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency?

9

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

• 41.2% of respondents “strongly support” these efforts, while 42.5% “somewhat support” them.

• 9.9% of respondents “strongly” (4.0%) or “somewhat oppose” (5.9%) these efforts

41.2% 42.5%

5.9%4.0%

6.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Stronglysupport

Somewhatsupport

Somewhatoppose

Stronglyoppose

Don't know

Support for the Overall Efforts of the Office of the Public Advocate

N=500

Affordable Energy Questions

Page 10: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Although support varied by Congressional District, political affiliation, and education, more than 7 in 10 respondents across all demographics support these efficiency-related efforts by the Office of the Public Advocate.

10

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

87.7%

79.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

CD1 CD2

Total Support

By DistrictN=500

79.7%

90.1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

< 4-yeardegree

4-year degreeor more

Total Support

By Level of EducationN=500

92.4%88.3%

72.5%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Democrat Independent Republican

Total Support

By Political AfilliationN=500

• Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency?

Affordable Energy Questions

Page 11: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Respondents then read the following paragraph:

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Central Maine Power Company plans to build a $950 million high-

voltage electricity transmission line from Quebec through the State of

Maine to carry hydroelectricity to Massachusetts. In evaluating the deal

on behalf of Maine consumers, the Office of the Public Advocate

discovered that as part of the deal, the company agreed to give $50

million dollars to the State of Massachusetts to assist low-income

customers in that state. A similar offer was not made to the State of

Maine. Since the project will have impacts in Maine, the Office of the

Public Advocate contends that CMP should provide a similar $50

million amount to assist low-income Maine energy consumers.

Affordable Energy Questions

Page 12: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

After reading the preceding paragraph, 63.0% of respondents supported the position of the Office of the Public Advocate.

• Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter? 12

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

• 37.8% of respondents “strongly support” these efforts, while 25.2% “somewhat support” them.

• 27.0% of respondents “strongly” (19.4%) or “somewhat oppose” (7.6%) these efforts.

37.8%

25.2%

7.6%

19.4%

10.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Stronglysupport

Somewhatsupport

Somewhatoppose

Stronglyoppose

Don't know

Support for the Position of the Office of the Public Advocate

N=500

Affordable Energy Questions

Page 13: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

More than half of respondents across all demographics tested support the position of the OPA. “Strong” support is highest in CD1, among older respondents, and among those with higher levels of education.

13

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

40.8%

34.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

CD1 CD2

Strongly Support

By DistrictN=500

31.7%

47.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

< 4-year degree 4-year degreeor more

Strongly Support

By Level of EducationN=500

29.7%

36.9%

40.8%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

18-34 35-54 55+

Strongly Support

By AgeN=500

• Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter?

Affordable Energy Questions

Page 14: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

IV. Sample Demographics

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The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Page 15: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Sample Demographics

15

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Political Party

Democrat 31.1%

Republican 31.9%

Independent 34.6%

Other party 0.6%

Don’t know / Prefer not to answer

1.8%

Level of Education

High school or less 31.4%

Some college / 2-year degree 29.8%

Four-year college degree or more

38.9%

Prefer not to answer 0.1%

Page 16: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Sample Demographics

16

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Age

18-34 17.5%

35-54 29.0%

55+ 53.3%

Prefer not to answer 0.1%

Household Income Level

Less than $25,000 13.0%

$25,000 to under $50,000 16.3%

$50,000 to under $75,000 23.6%

$75,000 to under $100,000 13.1%

$100,000 or more 26.5%

Don’t know / Prefer not to answer

7.5%

Page 17: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Sample Demographics

17

The 54th Pan Atlantic Research Omnibus Poll

Gender

Female 50.0%

Male 50.0%

Congressional District

CD 1 49.8%

CD2 50.2%

Page 18: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Appendix A: Survey Instrument

1 Pan Atlantic Research Fall 2018 Omnibus Poll – FINAL

AFFORDABLE ENERGY-RELATED QUESTIONS The following two questions relate to energy matters.

The following paragraph provides important context for the next question:

The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the interests of Maine consumers. The

Office of the Public Advocate has teamed up with an organization called Efficiency Maine to study

opportunities to help low-income Mainers improve energy efficiency in their homes. The goal is to make

Maine’s energy efficiency programs more effective and to cut high energy costs for those who can least

afford them.

Q7. Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State of Maine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency?

1. Strongly support 2. Somewhat support 3. Somewhat oppose 4. Strongly oppose 96. Don’t know

Again, the following paragraph provides important context for the next question:

Central Maine Power Company plans to build a $950 million high-voltage electricity transmission line from

Quebec through the State of Maine to carry hydroelectricity to Massachusetts. In evaluating the deal on

behalf of Maine consumers, the Office of the Public Advocate discovered that as part of the deal, the

company agreed to give $50 million dollars to the State of Massachusetts to assist low-income customers

in that state. A similar offer was not made to the State of Maine. Since the project will have impacts in

Maine, the Office of the Public Advocate contends that CMP should provide a similar $50 million

amount to assist low-income Maine energy consumers.

Q8. Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter?

1. Strongly support 2. Somewhat support 3. Somewhat oppose 4. Strongly oppose 96. Don’t know

Page 19: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Appendix B: Cross-TabulationsPan Atlantic Research

October, 2018

Affordable Energy-Related Questions

Table 1: The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the interests of Maine consumers. The Office ofthe Public Advocate has teamed up with an organization called Efficeincy Maine to study opportunities to help low-incomeMainers improve energy efficiency in their homes. The goal is to make Maine’s energy efficeincy programs more effectiveand to cut high energy costs for those who can least afford them. Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State ofMaine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency? (Q16)

District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent

Total 500 249 251 379 121 156 159 173100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Strongly support 206 109 97 170 36 73 43 8741.2% 43.9% 38.5% 44.9% 29.7% 47.0% 26.8% 50.2%

Somewhat support 213 109 104 160 53 71 73 6642.5% 43.8% 41.3% 42.2% 43.8% 45.4% 45.7% 38.1%

Somewhat oppose 30 17 12 22 8 3 19 75.9% 6.9% 5.0% 5.7% 6.6% 2.2% 11.8% 3.8%

Strongly oppose 20 2 18 14 6 4 10 54.0% 0.9% 7.1% 3.6% 5.1% 2.7% 6.5% 3.1%

Don’t know 32 11 21 14 18 4 15 86.4% 4.5% 8.2% 3.7% 14.8% 2.8% 9.1% 4.8%

Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

Table 2: The State of Maine Office of the Public Advocate works to protect the interests of Maine consumers. The Office ofthe Public Advocate has teamed up with an organization called Efficeincy Maine to study opportunities to help low-incomeMainers improve energy efficiency in their homes. The goal is to make Maine’s energy efficeincy programs more effectiveand to cut high energy costs for those who can least afford them. Do you support or oppose such efforts by the State ofMaine to help low-income customers reduce energy costs by increasing efficiency? (Q16)

Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male

Total 500 88 145 267 306 194 146 183 132 250 250100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Strongly support 206 26 63 117 113 93 68 75 52 105 10141.2% 30.1% 43.1% 43.9% 36.9% 47.9% 46.7% 40.8% 38.9% 42.1% 40.3%

Somewhat support 213 38 63 111 131 82 53 87 55 108 10542.5% 43.9% 43.2% 41.6% 42.8% 42.2% 36.1% 47.5% 41.4% 43.1% 42.0%

Somewhat oppose 30 2 7 20 16 13 4 7 15 10 205.9% 2.5% 4.9% 7.6% 5.3% 6.8% 2.9% 3.7% 11.7% 3.9% 8.0%

Strongly oppose 20 5 8 7 18 2 10 1 10 6 144.0% 5.6% 5.4% 2.7% 5.8% 1.0% 6.5% 0.4% 7.2% 2.5% 5.5%

Don’t know 32 16 5 11 28 4 11 14 1 21 116.4% 18.0% 3.3% 4.3% 9.2% 2.0% 7.7% 7.5% 0.8% 8.5% 4.3%

Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

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Page 20: 54TH OMNIBUS POLLä - Maine

Table 3: Mean Support for Maine Office of the Public Advocate - 1=Strongly support, 4=Strongly oppose (Q16)

District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent

Mean 1.71 1.63 1.79 1.67 1.85 1.59 1.98 1.58Std Error 0.05 0.05 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.07 0.08 0.09Valid N 468 238 230 365 103 151 145 165Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

Table 4: Mean Support for Maine Office of the Public Advocate - 1=Strongly support, 4=Strongly oppose (Q16)

Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male

Mean 1.71 1.80 1.72 1.68 1.78 1.60 1.67 1.61 1.87 1.64 1.78Std Error 0.05 0.14 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.09 0.05 0.12 0.05 0.08Valid N 468 72 140 255 278 190 135 170 131 229 239Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

Table 5: Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter? (Q17)

District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent

Total 500 249 251 379 121 156 159 173100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Strongly support 189 102 87 159 30 69 52 6537.8% 40.8% 34.8% 42.0% 24.8% 44.1% 32.9% 37.7%

Somewhat support 126 68 58 87 39 42 45 3825.2% 27.1% 23.3% 22.9% 32.4% 27.0% 28.1% 21.8%

Somewhat oppose 38 16 22 27 11 8 17 137.6% 6.3% 8.9% 7.1% 9.2% 5.1% 10.6% 7.6%

Strongly oppose 97 46 51 74 23 23 30 3819.4% 18.3% 20.5% 19.5% 19.1% 15.0% 18.8% 22.1%

Don’t know 50 18 32 32 18 14 15 1910.0% 7.4% 12.6% 8.5% 14.6% 8.8% 9.5% 10.8%

Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

Table 6: Do you support or oppose the position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this matter? (Q17)

Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male

Total 500 88 145 267 306 194 146 183 132 250 250100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Strongly support 189 26 53 109 97 92 58 73 49 85 10437.8% 29.7% 36.9% 40.8% 31.7% 47.5% 39.6% 39.9% 36.6% 34.1% 41.5%

Somewhat support 126 26 40 60 82 44 36 49 32 66 6025.2% 29.5% 27.6% 22.6% 26.8% 22.7% 24.5% 26.5% 24.4% 26.4% 24.0%

Somewhat oppose 38 11 12 15 24 14 9 10 16 20 187.6% 12.4% 8.2% 5.7% 7.9% 7.2% 6.2% 5.3% 12.4% 8.2% 7.0%

Strongly oppose 97 9 31 57 65 31 27 33 30 49 4819.4% 10.6% 21.3% 21.3% 21.4% 16.2% 18.5% 18.2% 22.8% 19.5% 19.3%

Don’t know 50 16 9 26 38 12 16 19 5 29 2110.0% 17.8% 6.1% 9.6% 12.3% 6.4% 11.2% 10.1% 3.8% 11.7% 8.2%

Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

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Table 7: Mean Support for Position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this Matter (Q17)

District Likelihood to Vote PartyTotal CD1 CD2 Certain Very likely / Likely Democrat Republican Independent

Mean 2.10 2.02 2.17 2.05 2.26 1.90 2.17 2.16Std Error 0.07 0.09 0.10 0.08 0.13 0.10 0.11 0.13Valid N 450 231 220 347 103 142 144 154Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

Table 8: Mean Support for Position of the Office of the Public Advocate on this Matter (Q17)

Age Education Income GenderTotal 18-34 35-54 55+ <4-Year Degree 4-Year Degree+ $<50k $50k-$100k $100k+ Female Male

Mean 2.10 2.05 2.15 2.08 2.22 1.92 2.04 2.02 2.22 2.15 2.04Std Error 0.07 0.18 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.08 0.10 0.11 0.15 0.08 0.10Valid N 450 72 136 241 268 182 130 165 127 221 230Pan Atlantic Research: October, 2018

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