6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested PlanetTopic 2 Water Conflicts

What is this topic about?

• Water Conflicts is the second of the ‘resources’ topics

• It examines the range of conflicts associated with the supply and demand patterns of the fundamental resource of water.

• Water supplies and quality vary globally, and actual and potential conflicts arise from the gap between growing demands and diminishing supplies.

• There are also growing pressures resulting from climate change

Mega technological fixes for mega problems (Hoover Dam, USA) versus Low tech solutions (Taanka storage of India)

1.The geography of water supply2. The risks of water insecurity3. Water conflicts and the future

CONTENTS

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2. The risks of water insecurity

• What are the potential implications of an increasingly ‘water insecure’ world?

Water supply problems

Increasing water shortages may be more important than energy

shortages- because there is no alternative!

Water conflictsWhere demand exceeds supply and no effective

management operates, then there will be conflicts

between the various players involved Water geopolitics

The conflicts between nation states, despite the

international agreement called the Helsinki Rules designed to create more equitable use of water

extending across boundaries

Water transfersOf this precious resource by

either diverting the actual river, or using canals . Long carried

out at a small scale but increasingly over larger

distances, and even transboundary

•River systems transport this water, often at continental scale. •Flows increase downstream as tributaries enter. •Seasonal changes in temperature can create distinctive river regimes. •The relationship between water inputs and outputs is water balance

Geology•Surface drainage occurs on rocks which are impermeable such as granite and clay. •Permeable rocks like limestone, chalk and some sandstones store water, called aquifers.

Climate•Climatic zones are critical in determining water availability•Equatorial / tropical areas have higher rainfall than temperate / arctic areas.•High altitude areas have snowpack water reserves released in late spring.•Monsoon areas have one main peak, equatorial areas two peaks.• Some tropical areas experience recurring drought

1.The geography of water supply and demand

97.2% Ocean & saltwater

Physical influences

on water supply and scarcity

Human influences on water supply and scarcity

• Humans affect the hydrological cycle at many points of flows and storage:

• Blue water flow is the visible part of the hydrological system: surface flows and then recharging aquifers

• Green water flow is water intercepted, stores and released by vegetation by evaporation and transpiration

• Grey water is polluted water Supply can be from: Surface sources groundwater sources In the UK 2/3 of supply is from

surface and 1/3 from groundwater, with regional variations.

• Freshwater is effectively a finite resource since only about 1% of freshwater is easily available for human use.

• The water footprint indicates how much is required by consumers- and in an increasingly globalised world, the footprint of someone in a country like the UK will not be just local as so many products using water will have been produced elsewhere!

•

Some key definitions

Domestic

Water shortage

low level of water supply relative to basic needs.

measured by annual renewable flows (in cubic metres) per head of population, or the number of people dependent on each unit of water

Water stress

often taken as less than 1700m3 per person per year

•growing conflict between users and competition for water• declining standards of reliability and service• harvest failures and food insecurity.

Water scarcity

supply of water per person falls below 1000m3/year

•an imbalance of supply and demand•a high rate of use compared to available supply, especially if the remaining supply is difficult or costly to tap.

Physical water scarcity

reached when 60% of river flows are diverted for agricultural, industrial & municipal purposes; globally over 75% is now used

Physical water scarcity is shown by:• Severe environmental degradation•Declining groundwater and water allocation which favours some groups over others.•Arid and semi-arid areas are most at risk

Economic water scarcity

when less than 25% of rivers are used, and there is abundant supply potential: water does not reach the poorest people

This is often due to political reasons and conflict: easiest to solve by low technology solutions: small dams, water harvesting from roof tops etc. It is targeted by NGOs like Water Aid

Water scarcity hotspotsAccording to the International Water

Management Institute environmental research organisation global water stress is increasing, and 1/3 rd of all people face some sort of water

scarcity. Agricultural uses dominate in the growing need for food.

Little/no water scarcity

Physical water scarcity- not necessarily dry areas but those where over 75% river flows are used by agriculture, industry or domestic consumers

Economic water scarcity- less than 25% rivers used, and abundant supply potential but not reaching the poorest people .

Approaching physical water scarcity – More than 60% river flows allocated, and in the near future these river basins will have physical scarcity

Egypt imports > 50% of its food because of physical scarcity

Australia; diversion ¼ of all water away from Murray Darling Basin for agriculture

Aral Sea faces environmental catastrophe, although recent

attempts to reduce impacts of river diversions for especially cotton

production

R Ganges: physical stress from pollution and over

abstraction

Severe water scarcity N China, leading to South

North transfer scheme-see later slide

Ogallala aquifer provides 1/3 all US irrigation water, but is seriously depleted:

the water table is dropping by about

1m/yr. As a ‘fossil’ reserve,

formed probably from past glacial

meltwater flows, it is effectively a finite

resource

Much of sub Saharan Africa suffers from economic scarcity from especially poverty but also

lack of infrastructural development . Some 1 bn people

involved1

DIFFERENT USERS?Conflicting demands

Water conflicts

SUPPLY?Diminishing

DEMANDS?

Rising

•International conflicts i.e. basin crosses national boundaries•Internal conflicts ie within a country•Conservation versus exploitation

PRESSURE POINT- ie need for

management. This is shown spatially

as a ‘hotspot’ of conflict, see map on

next slide.Pressure and hence tension and conflict may be over surface

flow and/or groundwater suppliesDams and diversions and loss of wetlands

are particularly contested.

Population growthConsumer demandIndustrial growth

Agricultural demand

Reductions because of:•Users abstracting/polluting upstream•Deteriorating quality•Impact of climate change

Present and potential water conflict hotspots• As water supply decreases, tensions will increase as different players try to access common

water supplies• Many conflicts are transboundary in nature, either between states or countries

Insert Figure 2.11 page 47

River basins currently in dispute

River basins at risk in the future

Large International drainage basins

Zambezi

Orange

Okavango

La Plata

Mekong

Ganges

Ob

Lake Chad

Nile hotly disputed between Ethiopia and Sudan ,who control its headwaters, and Egypt .

Tigris-Euphrates Iraq + Syria concerns that Turkey’s GAP project will divert their water

The Aral Sea, an inland drainage basin, once the world’s 4th largest inland lake has shrunk sine the 1950s after the 2 rivers feeding it: the Amu Dayra and Syr Darya were diverted for irrigation. By 2007 the sea was 10% of original volume and split into 2 lakes. The ex soviet states are in conflict: Uzbekistan , Turkmenistan and Kazakstan.

Colorado: disputes between the 7 US states and Mexico it flows through. The river is so overused, that it no longer reaches the sea!.90% abstracted before reaches Mexico

Note: although there have been rising tensions globally, many areas demonstrate effective management to diffuse the situation and create more equitable and sustainable demand-supply balance, such as the Mekong River Committee,& the Nile River Initiative

Evidence of more effective co-operation• The Nile Basin Initiative, system of

cooperative management which started late 1990s

• All countries except Eritrea working with The World Bank and bi-lateral aid donors .

• Community level involvement .• Managers visited Colorado River recently

to see how effectively the 1922 River Water Compact and its ‘law of the river’ works

Hydropolitics and geopolitics

•The Nile is the world’s longest river , 6,500kms, 2.9km2 catchment,10% of Africa, running through 10 countries with 360 million people depending on it for survival.•Growing issues of desertification & salination and increased evaporation linked to climate change•About 85 % water originates from Eritrea and Ethiopia, but 94 % is used by Sudan and Egypt.

• 1996 Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International Rivers - regulating how transboundary rivers and groundwater are managed

• The Nile Basin is an example that ‘Water Wars’ may be averted

History of hydropolitics in Nile Basin•tensions due to the dominance of Egypt• civil wars in Sudan Ethiopia • tensions from Egypt’s treaties dating back to the 1929 and 1959 Nile Water Agreements.• Upstream states increasingly challenging Egypt’s dominance.•Ethiopia wants to use the Nile River for HEP plants and industrial development.

Tech Fix ;The megaprojects of dams like Aswan are

famous. Latest high tech is the 1990sproject called

‘Tecconile’ a joint GIS system to help

monitor and plan the basin

Political negotiations centred on conflicts over the shared use of water sources

Water transfers- a quick fix?

Receiving areaSource area

Examples of existing schemes Proposed schemes

InternationalLesotho to South Africa: Lesotho Highlands Water Project Turkey to Israel by tanker

National:Snowy Mountains-AustraliaMelamchi Nepal Tagus-Mercia Spain

InternationalTurkey to Israel undersea pipelinesAustrian Alps to Spain + Greece by pipeline

National: South-North transfer- ChinaEbro -SpainOb to the Aral Sea NAWAPA Alaska to California

Beijing

Tianjin

Eastern Route1,155km long diversion

Central routes1267 km diversion. May have to use some water from 3 Gorges reservoir to help

Western Routes

Work starts 2010, at

high altitude,

very difficult

500kms at 3-5000m above sea

level

Demand from industrial centres, high population density and intensive agriculture. Low rainfall and over abstracted groundwater: physical scarcity

Externalities•Industrial growth along routeways will exacerbate existing pollution problems•Changes in water balances: reduced water in Yangtze means less dilution and more pollution• Displaced people especially from Dang Jiang Kou dam ......

Yellow River

Yangtze River

South China Sea

CHINA Shanghai

0 mls 250

Mega Tech Fixes: China’s South–North water transfer

Originally planned 1952, started 2002 ,due to finish 2050. Chief player: Government sponsored ‘South to North Water Transfer Project Company, with each province having a local water company. Involves huge civil engineering works, 3 major canals, pipelines, tunnels, pumping stations

One of the largest water transfers globally.Aim: to divert 45bn m3/year from the water surplus river basins of the S and E to the water deficit areas of the North, especially Beijing and Tianjin

Water issues in the Middle East

• There are significant disputes over access to water already in this area

• The combination of a growing population and low seasonal rainfall are the main causes.

• Is the energy dependent technological fix of desalination the answer?

• Photo of a plant in Dubai

In the Western Region: Israelis,

Syrians,Jordanians and

Lebanese are all in dispute over shrinking water

suppliesA contributory

factor to the 1967 Arab-Israeli warWater storage is

in 3 huge aquifers under the Israeli mountains and

coastal strip and the R Jordan

In the Northern region: Turkey is in dispute with Syria

and Iraq over damming more of

the Tigris and Euphrates river

The Aral Sea, on the boundary of the Middle East and Asia is suffering from over

abstraction and pollution

3. Water conflicts and the future

What are the possible conflicts and solutions to increasing demands for water?This section looks at 4 themes, and the table below summarises three scenarios for the future1. Trends in water demand globally and locally 2. Water players3. Responses to need to increasing water supply and the issues these strategies raise4. The role of technology in water supply

Business as usual

The cost of water will increaseWater consumption will increase resulting in declining storesFood transfers will mitigate shortage of water in areas where agriculture declines

Water Crisis

Demand will outstrip supplyThe proportion of the world’s population without access to clean water will increaseFood insecurity and migration will increaseConflicts of water supplies (intra and inter state) become more likely

Sustainable Water

Agricultural and household water prices will double in the developed world and triple in the developing worldGlobal water consumption will fall, although the gap between per capita use will closeGreen water flows will increaseImprovements in water harvesting and farming techniques allow food yields to increase whilst water consumption declines

From: 2002 International Food Policy and Research Institute future models

World Water Days- trying to be more sustainable?

• The importance of water in managing global issues is shown by the profile given to it by the UN:

• It declared 2005 to 2015 as the International Decade for Action, "Water for Life”.

• Every year on March 22nd the UN gives a theme to publicise current issues. 2010 World Water Day: dedicated to the theme of water quality.

• Such global action is rooted in the iconic Earth Summit on Environment and Development (UNCED) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and the creation of Agenda21 (the Blueprint for planet management at global scale)and Local Agenda 21( global problems, local action)

Previous Themes for World Water Days

• 2009 Transboundary water • 2008 Sanitation• 2007 Coping with water

scarcity• 2006 Water and Culture• 2005 Water for Life• 2004: Water and Disasters • 2003: Water for the Future • 2002: Water for Development • 2001: Water and Health

UN MDG TARGET set in 2000: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of the population without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation. The world is ahead of schedule in meeting the 2015 drinking water target.Yet a number of countries face an ‘uphill battle’: 884 million people still rely on unimproved water sources for their drinking, cooking, bathing and other domestic activities. Of these, almost 85 % (746 million people) live in rural areas.1990 to 2006, 1.1 billion people in the developing world received access to toilets, latrines and other forms of improved sanitation. But this leaves 1.4 billion people still needing such facilities if the 2015 target is to be met.

Water Players and decision makers

• Different players have conflicting views on water insecurity• One player may have quite complex views; most Governments will have

departments wanting conservation as opposed to development• You need to identify the ‘stakeholders’ in any particular case study, and then

the role of the ‘gatekeepers’ who wield power. The next slide shows a classification of players

Political: water is a human need•International organisations e.g. UN•Government •Regional & local councils•Lobbyists & pressure groups

Economic•International: World Bank & IMF •TNCs and developers•Businesses and users

Environmental•Conservationists•Scientists & planners

Social: water is a human right

•Individuals•Residents•Consumers land owners, health officials, NGOs like Water Aid

Photograph of Aral Sea with grounded tanker

Classifying the water players

Political Economic Social Environmental

Global World Bank funds megaprojects to improve supply. Has become more environmentally conscious. This group also has businesses and TNCsUN Millenium Development Goal called The Water Target:"Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation " World Health Organisation

G8 Summits : 2002 Evian action Plan, focus on water, and 2009 L’Aquila summit increased aid to poorer countries to help MDGs, + highlighted need for more integrated management

The role of NGOs such as Water Aid or GLOWS has been crucial in managing water suppliesCountries such as India, have mounted successful massive community-led campaigns on things like elimination of open defecationGovernment Health Agencies from national to local scale

WWF and Friends of the Earth campaign for full Environmental Impact Assessments of major projects likely to damage the environmentThis group will include many scientists and researchersAt a local scale NIMBY groups will campaign

National Government owned water companies, eg China

TNCs (Viendi and Suez RWE which owns Thames Water, American Water Works Companies providing technological fixes

Local

Individual

6.9 billion consumers

Responses: Management strategies • Water conflicts can be managed in a range of different ways

• There is a spectrum of different management strategies• Some are sustainable as they balance ecological and human needs

Present policiesDriven by short term economic + political concernsOften do not include science and effective technology

Obstacles to sustainable management•Climate change uncertainty and effects•Natural variability of water•Pressures caused by human activities and rapid growth of transition economies towards a consumerist society•Increased water demands•Gross inefficiencies in use•Poor existing quality of supply across huge areas of world•Funding•Access to appropriate technology

Future policies?Longer term?Need more research, information and monitoring especially on aquifers in developing countriesMore partnerships?More community involvement?More accountable?

What is Sustainability? Millennium Ecosystem Assessment definition: A characteristic or state whereby the needs of the present and local population can be met without compromising the ability of future generations or populations in other locations to meet their needs.

Strategies rely on technology?

Low tech solutions to water : a case study

• Water management often focuses on large scale, technologically advanced mega-projects

• These often have complex costs and benefits

• Water conservation and restoration of supply have a role

• Small scale, bottom-up schemes are likely to be important in the developing world

• However, unless duplicated on large scale may be ineffective for longer term economic growth

A solution? Basic technology and information is channelled through the NGO: GLOWS( global water for sustainability project) a partnership between World Vision India and Florida International University. Methods:1. Increasing simple low tech appropriate and intermediate solutions to increase storage:•Increased rainwater harvesting•Improved storage system at a family scale: Taankas: 3 m in diameter , 3-4 m deep, most below land level with a side opening to allow surface flow in. They store about 20,000litres, and once full provide water for a family until next monsoon. 2. Using colourful drama performed by trained locals to villagers to illustrate the advantages of working cooperatively with other families and villages to reduce desertification and pollution of ground water by since aquifers are shared-if an unseen resource! (see photgraph)

The problem: The River WAKAL area of Rajasthan in NW India is one of the driest and poorest areas in India. Subsistence agriculture dominates. 96% of rainfall is from the 3-4 month monsoon (late June through September.) and the traditional methods of using groundwater and conserving surface water are falling short of demands

Changes: Traditional low tech methods of water conservation.: stone dams, Persian water wheels and tube wells- but cannot cope with increased demand and increased droughts

Hard and soft managementHow to meet the challenge of the need for more water?

Traditional ‘hard’ engineering• Dams; currently 845000 of which 5000 classed as

megadams. The aim is to increase natural storage capacity by artificial reservoirs. Rivers most at risk at present: Yangtze, Amazon, Danube and many in the Himalayas

• Channels, seen in most arid/semi arid countries whatever their economic status, eg Jonglei Canal on Nile

• Pipelines eg Australia and California Aqueduct and snowy Mountains scheme Australia

• Desalination plants eg in Middle East• Recharging schemes for depleted aquifers, eg North

London Artificial recharge Scheme and Long Island New York

Softer more environmentally and ethically responsible approaches

• Water conservation eg targeted drip irrigation on plants in Ethiopia, includes water harvesting

• Water restoration eg Northern Aral Sea, and on smaller scale river Colne in UK

• Integrated drainage basin management , especially if bottom up and community involved.

• The 4 Rs: ie an attitudinal fix: Reduce, Respect, Reuse, Renew.....

Newer hard technologies •Tankers to transport water eg turkey to israel•Osmosis membranes filtering salt from brackish water eg Israel (the Ashkelon plant produces 15% of domestic demand). Also in California, Spain and China•Fertigation: fertilser and water drip feeding of crops, as in Israel

Specific Technologies seen as appropriate /intermediate with less negative externalities•Water harvesting of grey water eg Belize •Micro dams serving villages eg Nepal •Water meters to reduce use eg UK•Composting latrines – seen in National Trust properties in UK to Mumbai slums!

Water Conflicts overviewWater Resources

• Water like energy is a fundamental need but not evenly distributed

• Factors influencing geography of supply: Physical-surface, groundwater, desalinisation Human: demand, management,

mismanagement• Increasing demand not matched by supply=

WATER GAP• Implications for human well being- which is

why it is named in the MDGs• Demand from various users• Water resources are often transboundary

Water Conflict

• Potential conflicts=high both local & international

• Resource use often exceeds recharge capacity leading to long term degradation

• Future is in doubt because of unsustainable use+ climate change

• Vulnerable populations most at risk• Management strategies to ensure supply require

cooperation of many different players = changes in way water is valued & used

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Water FuturesWater stress and scarcity are projected to increase because:•Climate change will make some areas more arid and rainfall more unreliable •Glacial water sources will reduce due to climate change •Unsustainable use of some supplies will decrease their quality and quantity•Demand will rise due to population and economic growth•Water wars will lead to winners and losers in water supply

Therefore, there are alternative futures –It all depends on the decisions the players make....

and climate change, population trends, energy security, superpower politics, bridging the development gap etc…

Synopticity-Water-Energy

• Energy and Water: Solving Both Crises Together:• Water and energy are the two most fundamental ingredients of

modern civilization• We consume massive quantities of water to generate energy, and

we consume massive quantities of energy to deliver clean water• Peak Oil is topical. Peak Water or ‘Blue Gold’ is less

thought about. There are tensions between the two:

• An issue in energy rich states ,which are semi arid/arid: to sell cheap oil or keep to power desalinisation plants

• Water is needed to generate energy. Energy is needed to deliver water. Both resources are limiting the other—and both may be running short. Is there a way out?

23

water restrictions are hampering solutions for generating more energy

energy problems, particularly rising prices, are curtailing efforts to supply more clean water.