6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested PlanetTopic 4: Superpower Geographies

What is this topic about?

• The superpowers, and emerging powers, are the most powerful and wealthy nations

• They have both economic and political power, often globally

• Power and wealth shift over time and this topic explores these changes

• Changing patterns of power have global implications, which need to be explored and understood.

The New York Stock Exchange,a global power centre

1. Who are the superpowers?2. The role of Superpowers3. Superpower futures

CONTENTS

Click on the information icon to jump to that section. Click on the home button to return to this contents page

1. Who are the superpowers?

• Superpowers are countries, or grouping of countries, with global influence and power

• They have economic, cultural, military and geo-political influence

• Economic wealth (see graph) is only one aspect of superpower status

• One way to group the world's most powerful is:

The geography of power

• In terms of superpower status, size is not everything

• Some ‘demographic superpowers’ have relatively little economic power

• Military spending (see table) is one form of power, as it allows superpowers such as the USA to have global military reach

• The USA is a highly influential power in economic, military, geopolitical and cultural terms

• Only the EU comes close to the influence of the USA, but the EU is a federation of 27 nation states who do not always agree

2008/09 dataTotal Population

(millions)

Total military spending ($

billions)China 1,334 84India 1,174 30EU 500 280USA 308 607Indonesia 231 4Brazil 192 15Pakistan 168 4Bangladesh 162 1Nigeria 154 1Russia 141 59Japan 127 46Mexico 107 4Gulf States 40 40

Use a data website such as www.wri.org to experiment

with ranking power and status using different data

types

Changing patterns of power

• Superpowers shift over time; the Uni-polar world of the British Empire gave way to the Bi-polar cold war world

• In 1990, as the USSR collapsed, a new USA dominated Uni-polar world was ushered in; the EU has grown to be increasingly powerful also

• Many people think the future will be a more complex, fragmented and regional multi-polar world

• It is important to recognise that power can decline as well as grow

The BRICs and emerging powers

• The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are the emerging super powers

• Mexico and the Gulf States could lay claim to be in this group also

• This group of countries is very different, with perhaps only China capable of challenging the USA in the near future.

China Communist one-party state which has become the ‘workshop of the world’; rapid economic growth based on manufacturing and trade; significant military and demographic power

Russia Russia is what is left of the USSR; it has a huge nuclear weapons arsenal, and vast oil and gas reserves making it globally important. It has an ageing, unhealthy population and weak economy.

India A huge, and very youthful, population give India enormous potential for growth. It has some world class industry such as IT, but very poor infrastructure and 100s millions of very poor people

Brazil Increasingly influential in Latin America, with a strong, diversified economy and growing middle class. It tends to punch below its weight internationally. It is sometimes referred to as an ‘agricultural superpower’.

Mexico An influential country with strong ties to the USA; Mexico’s economy is often shaky and it has problems with crime and corruption.

Gulf States

Increasingly important in terms of remaining global oil and gas reserves; has attempted to diversify and become a hub between Europe and Asia, with some success.

Superpower theory

• There are several theories which help explain the rise and pattern of superpowers

• WW Rostow’s ‘Take Off’ model (modernisation theory) is often used to illustrate how countries move from relative underdevelopment, to a state of high mass consumption

• Not all countries have managed to industrialise and develop

• AG Frank’s Dependency Theory argues that this is because the developed countries (superpowers and emerging powers) maintain the developing world in a ‘state of underdevelopment’, draining it of:

Human capital (‘brain drain’)Resources (minerals, ores, food)• This helps maintain the developed

world’s lifestyle, cheaply

• The BRICs, and NICs, have developed in recent decades

• This suggests some countries have broken free from dependency and developed in the way Rostow’s model suggests

• Immanuel Wallerstein’s World Systems Theory seeks to model this ‘three sided world’:

• Wallerstein’s ideas are partly related to the economic theory of Supercycles (Kondratiev waves – see table)

• These suggest economic growth passes through phases based on key new technologies

• These new technologies bring growth to particular geographical regions

Date and Cycle Technology Location

1770-1850 Industrial Revolution

Cotton, steam engines

UK

1850-1920 Industrialization

Rail, steam ships, iron and steel,

Increased involvement of Europe and USA

1920-1945 Motorization

Petrochemicals, cars, electricity

Increasing dominance of the

USA1945– 1990 Cold war

eraWhite goods,

consumer goodsRise of Japan and

Asian Tigers 1990 onwards Internet, wireless,

biotechnologyShifts in

production toward India and China

2020 onwards? ???? Asia?

2. The role of Superpowers • In the past, superpowers such as the

British Empire and other Imperial powers maintained direct control over territories

• This era of colonialism ended in the period 1945-1980 when colonies gained independence

• A characteristic of a superpower is the ability to take control, through war, of troublesome regions believed to threaten superpower security

• Whilst rare, superpowers still take direct military control over territory:

Invasion of Afghanistan 1980, USSR

Invasion of Panama 1989, USA

First Gulf War (Kuwait, Iraq)

1990, USA, UK, Egypt , Saudi Arabia and others

Bombing of Bosnia 1995, NATO

War in Afghanistan 2001, NATO led coalition

Neo-colonialism?• Left-wing geographers argue that

superpowers use subtle, indirect ways to maintain power today

• These ways are often termed neo-colonialism

• Aid is often given to allies and ‘friends’ rather than the most needy countries (see table), and much aid is ‘tied’ in various ways.

• Debt repayments channel money from the developing to the developed world

• Even debt relief schemes, such as the HIPC scheme (see map) have been criticised

• For HIPC countries to qualify for debt relief, they must follow the economic policies of bankers in the developed world

Top 10 Recipients of

USA foreign aid

2006 ($ millions)

Israel 2,520Egypt 1,795Columbia 558Jordan 461Pakistan 698Peru 133Indonesia 158Kenya 213Bolivia 122Ukraine 115

Note the total lack of overlap between the most indebted nations and the top 10 receivers of US

aid.

International Trade

• The world trade system is essential a western ‘free trade’ one • The USA and EU have been very influential at the World

Trade Organisation in the past• The World’s three major stock markets (London, New York

and Tokyo) are all in the ‘west’• In a globalised world, TNCs play a crucial role in world trade,

and most TNCs originate in the EU and USA• Emerging superpowers, especially China, have taken

advantage of global trade to develop and grow

International decision making• Global decision making

revolves around inter-governmental organisation (IGOs)

• Some IGOs involve all nations, such as the U.N. – others are more exclusive such as the G8, or regional such as NATO.

• Membership and voting rights may give key players disproportionate power.

• Some influential organisations such as the World Economic Forum (Davos Group) are not-for-profit organisations outside government control.

• IGOs do change over time; the G20 has become more influential in recent years, reflecting the increasing power of the BRICs

Cultural influence

• Superpowers exert a cultural influence – the widespread use of English, tea drinking and cricket are a cultural legacy of the British Empire

• Today, the most influential culture is that of the USA

• ‘Americanisation’ suggests that this culture is spreading. This spread is made easier by:

1. Global brands and logos2. The Global media e.g.

Disney and CNN3. Globalised transport and

communications connections

4. American based TNCs5. Widespread use of English

Fast food, Coca-cola, rock music on the juke box in

this American dream diner

Is ‘Mcdonaldisation’ or ‘Cocacolonisation’ a positive or negative development?

The issue tends to be divisive; some anti-globalisation campaigners accuse the USA

of cultural imperialism, and blame US consumer culture for the erosion of local

cultural traditions. On the other hand, many Chinese see Americanisation as positive, as

it shows progress and development.

3. Superpower futures • As the primary emerging superpower, China

has much to gain from its growing global status

• Poverty reduction in China (see graph) has been staggering

• China has become motorised, with over 170 million vehicles at the end of 2008; some estimates suggest there were only 3000 cars in Beijing in 1978

• Inequality in China is a growing issue, although in general the population is much better off

• In Brazil and India there is a growing middle class of consumers

• In India by 2009 there were 500 million mobile phones in use and over 700 million in China

Superpower resources

• Growth, wealth and the status that accompanies it brings new problems to the emerging powers.

• Chief among these is pollution; as resources consumption and eco-footprints grow, so does pollution .

• What if eco-footprints in the BRICs (see graph) begin to approach those of the developed world?

Almost 70% of China’s energy comes from coal

Acid rain is a serious problem, as is water

pollution and urban air pollution; in 2004

25,000km of Chinese rivers failed water quality

standards

Declining superpowers?

• The emergence of the BRICs does challenge the hegemony of the USA

• The USA is not about to enter precipitous decline, but its influence may lessen

• There is evidence that the BRICs are catching up, as the number of largest TNCs based in the USA falls, but rises in the BRICs (see graph)

• There is also some unease among the BRICs that IGOs such as the G8 and UN Security Council are dominated by the USA and EU

Global Shifts in the Car industry • In 2002, car sales in China

were just over 3 million• By 2009 sales had exploded

to 11 million, beating the 10 million sold in the USA

• The potential for growth in car sales in China is vast

• Two of the ‘Detroit Three’ (Chrysler and GM) went bankrupt in 2009, shedding jobs and factories

• USA car companies have only survived because of Government bail-outs and selling or scrapping their loss making brands.

• Several brands have been sold to Indian and Chinese companies

Year

Population of Detroit

(millions)1950 1.81960 1.71970 1.51980 1.21990 12000 0.952008 0.9

Development or dependency?

• Does the rise of the BRICs represent an opportunity for the least developed countries to develop new relationships with wealthy countries?

• China’s interest in the developing world, especially Africa, has grown in the last 10 years

• China has invested in infrastructure such as road and rail, which Africa desperately needs.

• In some ways any investment is good investment

• Critics argue that Africa is still exporting its raw materials cheaply, and that the investment brings few jobs – Chinese workers are often used instead of local labour.

China’s trade with Africa increased 10-fold between 1999 and 2009, to $110 billion

Most trade is with oil exporters – Sudan, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria,

Angola

China approved $10 billion in loans to African nations in 2009

China has invested in Zambian copper mines, iron ore mines in

Gabon

China has gifted $150 to build a new African Union headquarters in Addis Adaba

Superpower Conflict

• Would a multi-polar global future increase tension and conflict?• Sources of tension might be considered in terms of three global

agendas: