939 3 Fashion 7th Lecture

7/30/2019 939 3 Fashion 7th Lecture

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MID-TERM EXAMINATION

Identify the new four Ps of marketing

PEOPLE

PLACES PLANS

PROJECTS


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PLANS

No more

lifestyles Focus on

thinkstyles

Try to

understandpeoplesdeepconcerningvalues,thoughts


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The GRUNGE movement - SEATTLE Clothing commonly worn by grunge musicians

in Seattle consistedof second-hand items andthe typical outdoor clothing (most notably

flannel shirts), as well as a general unkemptappearance

The style did not evolve out of a consciousattempt to create an appealing fashion

The clotheswere cheap, durable, and kind oftimeless

They ran against the grain of the whole flashyaesthetic that existed in the 80's


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POWER DRESSING Shoulder pads: in the 1980s women in the

workplace were no longer unusual, andwanted to "power dress" to show that they

were the equals of men at the office The Dinasty television show, watched by over

250 million viewers around the world,influenced the fashion styles and women to

wear jewelry often to show one's economicstatus

Wool, cotton, and silkreturned to popularityfor their perceived quality


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NEW ROMANTIC

It was a new wawe andfashion movement thatoccurred primarily in Britishand Irish nightclubs

Most of the fashion of this new

period were taken andmodified right from punkfashion

The streaky eyeliner, the

spiked hair, the colourfuldresses, the syntetic fabrics,were the symbols of newromanticism

Vivienne Westwood


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Leggings were alsovery popular

Hairstyles were

unique: long timepreparation, lot ofhayrspray, asculpture, more than

an haircut


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The 90s: back to basics & minimalism

After the conspicuous consuming years ofthe 1980s less became more in the 1990s

The silhouette became neater as shoulder

pads finally died and jewellery becamenon existent orchic in its fineness

For many the sleek hairstyle copied fromJennifer Aniston or the funkier choppier

hairstyle of Meg Ryan was the onlyhairstyle to sport


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There was a dramatic move away from the sexystyles aimed at the glamorous femme fatale of

the Eighties and many designers, taken with avision of romantic poverty, adopted the style ofthe poverty-stricken waif, dressed in a stark,perversely sober palette, with a face devoid of

make upKate Moss-look


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ICONS


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SOCIAL MESSAGES


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MID-TERM EXAMINATION

Give a precise definition of the wordtrend

A trend is the direction in which

something new moves Which has a consequential influence on

culture, society and business

Trend is about difference and the

direction in which this difference moves


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TREND: A DEFINITION

A trend is a TRANSITORY DECREASE OVER TIME

They are usually classified by duration and penetration,

visualised as curves with time on the bottom axis and

consumer adoption rates on the vertical axis

In this way its easy to show the difference between

- The SHORTEST TRENDS or FADS

- The LONGEST TRENDS or CLASSICS


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Trends are not explicit, as they still have to be identified

They appear across different cultures, targets, social networks,

and different theatres of consumption, like the streets

People who work with trends deal with the task ofsensing thetrend, capturing what really matters and inserting it within

an interpretative structure that will then be applied to the

world of strategic marketing

What matters/in an interpretative structure/appliedto strategic marketing


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EVOLUTION OF A TREND

There are three stages in the evolution of a trend

1.FRINGE

A stage when an innovation arises and the trendiest

consumers begin to participate

2.TRENDYA stage when awareness of the trends grows because

early adopters join the innovators to increase the visibility

of the trend and the most fashion-forward brands and

retailers test the concept

3.MAINSTREAM

A stage when more conservative consumers join in,

visibility continues to increase, and corporation and

brands capitalize on the growing demand


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What helps or hinder the adoption of a trend?

Relative advantage: the perception that theinnovation is more satisfactory than items that

already exist in the same class of products Compatibility: an estimate of harmony between

the innovation and the values and norms ofpotential adopters

Complexity: consumers are having difficulties inunderstanding and using the innovation

MID TERM EXAMINATION


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Trialability: the chance of testing out theinnovation before making a decision

Observability: the degree of visibility that the

innovation has Perceived risk: economic (the purchase price may

reduce the ability to buy other products),enjoyment risk (becoming bored or not liking it asmuch as expected), social risk (the consumerssocial group will not approve)



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1. GUT INTUITION

Can be described as ordinary, as this is

the one we call on most when meeting new

people, or when knowing the right momentto cross the road

Your brain acts as a vast filing system that

prompts you when you encounter a

situation in the present that may have

similar properties to one encountered in

the past


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1. GUT INTUITION

You experience a mental flash and know

the right thing to do

Conversely, this filing system alerts you

with an odd feeling if it has no reference

point for a present situation, for any

anomaly or something different or new


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1. GUT INTUITION

As an intuitive forecaster, with a vast back

catalogue of experiences and stuff, youll

be able to use this alert mechanism towarn you that something new is on the

way

It all depends on how good are the data

stored in your brain


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1. GUT INTUITION

Being intuitive is all

about being culturallyacquisitive and

perpetually observant


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1. GUT INTUITION

How do you remember things?

Camera Mp3 recorder

pinboard

notebook

hands on the desk!!!


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2. EXPERT INTUITION

It is the kind of intuition you develop as a

consequence of working in the same field

or profession for a protracted period oftime

It is an instinct many organizations are

happy to trust

As an expert, youll have to speak in front

of other people and acquire their


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2. EXPERT INTUITION

Youll infer something that is a mix

between your knowledge and others

knowledge

The ability to empathize with the others

and to make their thoughts, views and

opinion part of yours helps you to boost

your imaginative powers and your ability

to project and envision tomorrow


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2. STRATEGIC INTUITION

As a concept, it was identified in 2007 by William

Duggan, a professor at Columbia Business School

after studying key personalities from history, who

seemed unusually brilliant at developing andexecuting battle strategies

These personalities were unusual and brilliant

because they made split-second decisions of thekind that were imaginative, audacious, prescient

and correct


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2. STRATEGIC INTUITION

It is a method that draws heavily on the previous

types of intuition mentioned, but if done correctly

it allows you to envision answers or to draw results

about situations or events of which you may nothave previous experience

You are using what you know from past

experiences, combined with what you havelearned from the present, to create or envision a

future that is likely, if not probable.


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SCENARIO PLANNING AND THE TREND

FUNNEL

LECTURER: Valeria Volponi

[email protected]


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SCENARIO PLANNING

The future is not written, rather it remains open.The future is multiple, undetermined and open

to a large variety of possibilities.

That which will happen tomorrow depends less

on prevailing trends or any sort of fatalistic

determinism, and more on the actions of groups

and individuals in the face of these trends

(Michel Godet, professor at Laboratory of

Innovation, Strategic Foresight and Organization)


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A DEFINITION

Trend forecasting is about identifying thenew and the next

Scenario planning is about anticipating how

the new and the next might impact on the way

we live tomorrow

Scenario planners accept that

there are

many futures and that the best way to

anticipate these futures is to envisage all of

them in as much detail as possible


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A DEFINITION

Example: a new sense of austerity

Trend forecasters may use their skills to

identify the rise of this new sense of austerity

within consumer buying patterns

Scenario planners will carefully map out how

this shift is likely to change the social, cultural,

ethical and environmental framework of people

lives, on a day-to-day basis


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SCENARIO PLANNING & INTUITIVE FORECASTING

Scenario planners have much in commonwith intuitive forecasters

Both draw heavily on their:

intuitionsense of historic awareness

presence of mind

. and ability to suspend logic as a way of

envisioning future possible scenarios


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SCENARIO PLANNING & INTUITIVE FORECASTING

Scenario planners however, also utilize arange of quantitative tools and envisioning

techniques developed by corporate, social,

military planners since the 1950s

These add an extra and vital layer of strategic

and analytical underpinning to their work


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THE ORIGINS OF SCENARIO PLANNING

Unexpected: Usa, 1950s

Herman Kahn works for Rand Corporation, a

U.S. Government Body that specializes in

strategic military research

At that time, the US Military was seriously

considering the idea that a nuclear warwas

the only response to any imminent threat from

the Soviet Union


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In his book On Thermonuclear war, Kahnreasoned out a far more devastating outcome,

or scenario: the world he envisioned was one

where the many separate scenarios considered

by strategists at the time would be synthesizedinto a single overall doomsday scenario

Frightening, but tremendously accurate


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In his book On Thermonuclear war, Kahnreasoned out a far more devastating outcome,

or scenario: the world he envisioned was one

where the many separate scenarios considered

by strategists at the time would be synthesizedinto a single overall doomsday scenario

Frightening, but tremendously accurate


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The methodology he used to underpin itsreasoning has now become the backbone for

scenario planning strategy today

The consequences of our actions should notbe considered or imagined in isolation, but in

concert with those bigger, social, cultural,

ethical, civic, political and environmental

factors that influence our lives


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The choices we make are highly dependent,interdependent and influenced by the choices

made by other people

He asked his readers to THINK THEUNTHINKABLE


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THINK THE UNTINKABLE

Use your imaginative and creative

abilities to add flesh, depth and a new

perspective to how the future could be


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SCENARIO PLANNING STAGES

1. DETERMINING THE QUESTION

As simple as it sounds, making sure that you

are asking the right question at the outset is

one of the most difficult parts of the scenarioplanning exercise

To be able to define the question is to know

the subject, but this is exactly what many

brands, businesses and organisations

concerned with the future fail to do


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The correct framing of the initial question is

vital to the integrity and accuracy of the

outcome of any particular scenario

Use theWHAT IFapproach: What if

consumers only bought products that were

proven to be sustainable?


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2. CONTEXTUALIZATION

Before you attempt to answer any question, it

is important to understand the contextwithin

which that question is being asked

Two factors govern this: internal drivers

(forces) and their external counterparts


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Internal drivers are those factors within an

organization that require a question to be

asked in the first place: declining

performance, slow response to competitoractivities.

External drivers are those broader cultural,

social, environmental and market forces that

directly impact or indirectly create, those

internal forces


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A careful scenario planner will interview the

stakeholderspeople that own a stake or a

share in the project being undertaken -

He/she will probe the concerns of every

stakeholder and ask them to list the external

drivers, as they perceive them, which need to

be considered in answering the initial question


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At this point, the team leader is attempting to

identify all the internal issues that are relevant,

including those that are likely to lead to conflict or

confusion later on in the scenario planning process

These issues can be anything from stakeholders

who are not keen on the process in the first place

(and thus can become disruptive, prejudicedin

their thinking), to a group of stakeholders who are

not fully embracing the enormity of the

internal/external forces about to swamp them


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A careful scenario planner will interview the

stakeholderspeople that own a stake or a

share in the project being undertaken -

He/she will probe the concerns of every

stakeholder and ask them to list the external

drivers, as they perceive them, which need to

be considered in answering the initial question


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3. EXTERNAL DRIVERS

Similar to stage 2, but conducted in a more

systematic and objective way

At this point, expert input is usually required:

a panel of experts who have a thorough

understanding of the company or the sector

under review and an equally understanding of

the drivers that are most likely to impact on the

outcome of the question being asked


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Depending on the question being asked, theresearch carried out at this stage will

encompass many disciplines and sectors, but

as a default:

Cultural: the prevailing climate towards

issues and matters relating to leisure, lifestyle

and inner directed activities or experiences

that govern our sense of wellbeing, personal

esteem, aspiration and social position


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Economic: the prevailing climate in terms of

how consumers sit economically in relation to

changing market fortunes

Civic: the prevailing social and civic mindset

of the culture generally

Social:what is accepted socially among

friends and associates and in the wider

community


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Political: the state of political involvement

locally and globally

Technological: the changes in technologyby intention or by accident that might be

imposing on a business

Environmental: changing attitudes and

outlook to sustainability


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Ethical: the prevailing stance people are takingon a range of social, sexual, corporate and moral

issues

Competitive: competitor activity and the newand emerging products or services they are

planning to bring to market, that might impact on

the trend

Known/unknowns: left of field innovations,

discoveries or changes in attitude that you may not

consider because they seem too wild or weird


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60 million pieces in the world


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65 million pieces in the world


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All considered too weird by the

Late Majority and the Laggards


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A room for the debate: all the discussions takeplace in the scenario planning room

The room needs to contain blackboards,

whiteboards, pinboards, post its, Internet access,projectors, break out areas where small teams can

work together

Paper, pens, notebooks, reference books and abase knowledge library where all previously

researched material is assembled alongside the

books, papers, reports, surveys


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4. RANKING AND RANGING

Having established your internal drivers and

their external counterparts, it is important to

rank them all in order ofrelevance andimmediacy

But also in terms ofthe level of uncertainty

that they may introduce into the scenario

planning process


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5. NAMING AND FRAMING

Thats the pivotal point of the scenario

planning process

You begin to flesh out the scenarios that are

now starting to suggest themselves from the

fog of data, evidence, driversappearing on

the mapping room wall of the work areas

around you


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From now on, you are trying to reach asituation where the drivers are showing you a

number of ways forward

You will find that you have a list of drivers thatare also suggesting a list of very clear themes

These themes provide you with the

underpinning for five basic scenarios


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Scenario A: base caseFuture, with minor variations, will be more or

less the same as present

Scenario B: best case propositionsFuture will get better and brighter if all current

drivers continue along this direction

Scenario C: worst case scenarioThings will get worse in terms of competitor

Activity, but also with regard to all social,

cultural, economic drivers


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Scenario D: cross case scenarioA scenario model that accepts things are never

black or white, but mercurial and less pure

Scenario E: rogue scenario

A scenario model that requires you to think the

unthinkable and which challenges all

participants to be lateral, imaginative andprogressively whole brain in their thinking and

insights


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NAME YOUR SCENARIO

At this point you should also be naming your

scenarios, so that each one develops a distinct

personality

The titles must be memorable, but they also

need to be short


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6. LOGIC AND NARRATIVE

When mapping out these scenarios, its vital

to ensure that each one contains its own

internal logic, rationale and narrative that

seems real and true

They should be written up as if they resemblethe plot of a good film, book or television

series


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7. DISTILLATION AND DIALOGUE

When all the five scenarios are complete, you

need to revisit them again from the beginning,

carefully combing through them for ideas that

they may now share in common

Are some of their themes similar? Could youfold one into the other to create four master

scenarios rather than five? (Ideal is three)


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Distilling five scenarios down into threeworkable and all encompassing ones is a

painstaking process

This time, your full scenario should be even

richer in content, context and expert quotes

Each narrative needs to offer a very clear andseparate snapshot of the future


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8. VALIDATION AND REFINEMENT

It is always a good idea to ask the panel of

your experts to rejoin you

You should know the following:

The nature of your question

Your scenario titleThe key drivers defining and dominating it

The key weaknesses in all social, civic,

cultural, ethical and technological areas


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The key weaknesses within the business orbrand that the above drivers have alerted you

to

The key items you now need to arm yourself

with if you are to answer the question that has

been posed in a proactive and positive way


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9. INTERPRETATION ANDIMPLEMENTATION

You will now need to look at the strategic

implications of your answer

With or without the stakeholders


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ITS COFFEE TIME


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The future belongs to those

who prepare it for today


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INSIGHT, STRATEGY INNOVATION

Techniques like intuitive forecasting andscenario planning can be used to identify

trends such techniques are not designed to

identify brands, products or services

To do this, a forecaster must add an additional

set of skills that help unpack the components of

an identified trend, in a way that allows him orher to translate them into market-specific and

consumer-friendly products


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INSIGHT, STRATEGY INNOVATION

The process used to do this is known asIDEATION - a contraction of the words ideas

and innovation- and refers to the process of

taking ideas and turning them into workable,

tangible and profitable products via:

An Inspiration stage

A Translation stageAn Immersion stage

A product development stage


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THE INSPIRATION STAGE

To determine the correct aesthetic, or tocreate a product that perfectly mirrors the

trends consumers are influenced by, you need

to set IDEATION WORKSHOPS

There,ideas are generated by mixing and

merging the many talents of those taking part

The best way is to create teams from peoplewho do not work in the same department or

within the same discipline (marketing,

planning, strategy)


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THE TRANSLATION STAGE

At the translation stage, the discussed ideascaptured as notes, paper tears, images from

magazines, jpeg printouts, annotated scribbles

and inspirational collages, are used to

construct a more formalized picture of

potential products being considered

Some organizations prefer to do this as a wallchart that outlines each of the chosen trends

and then cluster around them a set of products

and ideas from other industries that might work


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THE TREND FUNNEL

If you are working with brands that want a

solution that is unique, copyrightable and

relevant to their brand DNA, pushing theidentified trends through something called

THE TREND FUNNEL is a better way of doing

things


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THE TREND FUNNEL


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THE TREND FUNNEL


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THE TREND FUNNEL

If executed properly, the trend funnel allows

you to be more creative, collaborative and

less prescriptive, and to develop a map or acartogram that designers and product

developers find easier to read and understand


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THE TREND FUNNEL

As the name suggests, a trend funnel encourages

each team to work through a series of stages, or

zones, that will attempt to filter out extraneous

ideas until the lowest zone of the funnel is achieved

Although they vary in the number of zones

required for a trend to pass through, all are

designed to be visually stimulating and to alloweach team to capture the visual and emotional

qualities of a trend, refracted through the lens of a

particular brand


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THE TREND FUNNEL

ZONE 1: TREND IDENTITY

Must contain:

a twenty-five to thirty-five word description of the

trends key characteristics

A visual storyboard that contains five to eight

images that attempts to define what the trendmeans and how its sense of experience might look

or feel


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THE TREND FUNNEL

ZONE 2: TREND DRIVERS

Must contain:

a short description of the underlying drivers

associated with each trend being reviewed

Sample visuals that might prompt you to think

about these drivers in the context of the trendbeing reviewed


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THE TREND FUNNEL

ZONE 3: TYPOLOGY/TARGET CONSUMER

GROUP

Must contain:A 25 word description of the emotional essence

of the typology being targeted (es twenty

something shoppers who want to experience a

brand as a live, engaging event)A series of images that offers a clear and

inequivocal montage of who is this typology, what

they look like


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THE TREND FUNNEL

ZONE 4: ASPIRATIONAL TOUCH POINTS

Must contain:

A short description using the words that bestdescribe the nature of the products they are

currently keen on seeking out (es: artisan, tactile,

premium, understated.)


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THE TREND FUNNEL

ZONE 5: TREND LOCATION

Must contain:

A short note on where the trend is happening,and consequently how and when it is likely to

impact first


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THE TREND FUNNEL

ZONE 6: TREND OPPORTUNITIES

Must contain:

A short,but exaustive description oftrend

opportunities: how this trend could be

developed, extended or used in other parts

of the business

THE IMMERSION STAGE


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THE IMMERSION STAGE

At this stage you work with the concepts

identified through the trend funnel and you

push down through a new series of zones,

known as

OPPORTUNITY CARTOGRAM to develop a

more coherent and articulate product concept

This concept then will be mocked up and

tested on a group of consumerswho

represent the targeted typology

THE OPPORTUNITY CARTOGRAM


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THE OPPORTUNITY CARTOGRAM

At this stage you work with the concepts

identified through the trend funnel and you

push down through a new series of zones,

known as

OPPORTUNITY CARTOGRAM to develop a

more coherent and articulate product concept

This concept then will be mocked up and

tested on a group of consumerswho

t th t t d t l

Documents

939 3 Fashion 7th Lecture