Local Tsunami Early Warning System for Manila Bay and

Vicinity

Philippine Institute of Volcanology and SeismologyEmbassy of Finland

The Philippines is an earthquake and tsunami prone country

The Manila Trench as Possible Source of Tsunamis

Numerical Simulation of Tsunami Generated

by the Manila Trench

Generated using Mirone

Approximate Travel Time of Tsunami from Manila Trench

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Generated using Mirone

Numerical Simulation of Tsunami Generated

by the Manila Trench

Generated using Mirone

Approximate Travel Time of Tsunami from Manila Trench

Generated using Mirone

119 119.5 120 120.5 121

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14

14.5

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PHIVOLCS Tsunami

Modelling for Manila Bay

Proposed Tsunami Detection Station

To determine available time for warning

Communication Scheme forTrans-Pacific Tsunami

Earthquake

PTWCNWPTIC

PHIVOLCS

OCDNDCC

OCD RC RDCC

LGUsDCC

PAGASA

PUBLIC

MEDIA

GTSFAX

EMAIL

Phone

FAX

PHONE

FAXPHONE

FAXPHONE

FAX

PHONE

FAXPHONESSB Radios

FAXPHONESSB Radios

SirenPublic Address System

Radio BroadcastsTV broadcasts

FAXPHONE

NAMRIA

Office of the President

Mass Texting Company

(GLOBE or SMART)

Proposed Establishment of a Local Tsunami Warning System

• Real time Seismic Monitoring System (Existing)

• Real-time Local Tsunami Detection System (Proposed)

• Rapid Communication System(Proposed)

• Mass Alerting System (Proposed)

Important Elements of an Effective Local Tsunami Warning System

• A dense, real time network of seismic stations for accurate detection, location and evaluation of tsunami potentials of earthquakes

• Real time sea level monitoring network for tsunami wave detection and confirmation

• Rapid communication system for relaying alert and warning information from the warning center to the local authorities and the public

• Availability of accurate hazard maps indicating inundation areas, shortest escape routes and safe evacuation sites

• Local mass alerting system(ex. sirens, bells, public address system, etc) for signaling and disseminating evacuation orders

• A well-informed citizenry to ensure proper action and response

PHIVOLCS Seismic Monitoring Network

•30 Satellite Telemetered stations•With near-real time data transmission

•34 Manned stations• Equipped with SSB radios and Telephones for non-real time data transmission

PHIVOLCS Unmanned Seismic System

CYGNUSSatelliteModem

Transmitter

TRIDENTDigitizer

SS-1Seismometer

Solar Panel

Charge Regulator

Battery

VSAT Antenna

Example of Instrumentations in Each of the Satellite-telemetered Unmanned Stations of PHIVOLCS

Seismic vault, solar panel and VSAT antenna

Digitizer and VSAT modem / transmitter

Batteries and solar charger regulator

Three component short-period sensors

Abra Station

PHIVOLCS Central Receiving Station

CARINASatellite Modem

TransmitterReceiver

VSAT Antenna Receiver

Data Acquisition

Computer

Data Processing

computer

Data Archiving

Computer

UPS

Emergency

Power Generator

AC

Power

Screen Display of Existing Near Real-time Seismic Data Acquisition Computer Showing Signals from an Earthquake

Proposed Establishment Real-time Tsunami Wave Detection Stations in Strategic Sites

• For rapid assessment and confirmation of tsunami threats.

• To give warning to areas that are too far from the source to feel the strong ground shaking

• The Severity of impact in different areas could be accurately assessed if actual tsunami height is immediately known

• Disaster managers can have immediate information for prioritizing rapid deployment of rescue and relief operations

Tsunami Wave Detection Instruments Used by PTWC

Bottom Pressure Sensor

Satellite communication platform

Deep-ocean Assessment and

Reporting of Tsunamis

Japan Tsunami Wave Detection System

Japan Local Tsunami Warning System

PHIVOLCS Proposed Electrical Layout of Tsunami Wet Sensor

To Seismic Digitizer

Wet Sensor

Battery

RelaySwitch Signal Generator

or Oscillator

DRAIN

Tsunami Water

Digitization and data transmission using the PHIVOLCS existing real-time seismic data communication system

CYGNUSSatelliteModem

Transmitter

TRIDENTDigitizer

Solar Panel

Charge Regulator

Battery

VSAT Antenna

Signals from tsunami sensors

Concrete Pier

PHIVOLCS Proposed Details of Tsunami Wet Sensor

The height of stainless tube and elevation of probes and collecting vessel could be adjusted to set the tsunami heightmeasurement level H(I.e. 1 m, 3 m, 6 m or 10 m)

Water collecting

vessel

Stainless Tube

Air Vent

Tsunami Water Intake

H

Electric Cable

Sea Water

To relay switch

PHIVOLCS Proposed Deployment of Tsunami

Wet Sensors

1 m5 m

10 m

Screen Display of Data Acquisition Computer showing Tsunami Signals Integrated with Seismic Signals

Earthquake Signals

Tsunami Signals

Advantages of the Proposed Tsunami Detection System

• The design of wet sensors is simple, robust and less expensive than tide gauges.

• The civil works required is less expensive than constructing a stilling well for tide gauges

• Integrate with the existing PHIVOLCS real-time seismic communication system will – Substantially reduce the

total cost of the warning system

– Sustainable since PHIVOLCS engineers are already familiar with the installation, repair and maintenance of the system.

Disadvantages of the proposed Tsunami Detection system

• Data are only generated during an actual tsunami and history of sea level fluctuation for ocean tide study could not be obtained

• Highly dependent on presence of small islands near earthquake source region for early detection.

Map Showing Location of Proposed Real-time Tsunami Wave Detection Stations

Each station will be equipped with satellite communication system for transmitting data on very near real-time to the central station in Quezon City.

Total Project Cost

10 stations X P2.5M = P25M

The first station which is located in Lubang Island is already being funded by the government of Finland.

Continue to seek assistance from other funding institutions

Proposed Communication Scheme for Locally Generated Tsunami

Strong EarthquakePHIVOLCS AutomaticEpicentral Location

And magnitude determination

PHIVOLCS Confirms tsunami wave from Tsunami Sensors

OCD

NDCC

Mass Texting (GLOBE or SMART)

LGUsDCC

PHIVOLCS IssuesTsunami Warning

PUBLIC

MEDIA

FAX

PHONE

Criteria are satisfied for a tsunamigenic earthquake

FAX

PHONE

GSM

No Hazardous Tsunami wave detected

FAX

PHONE

FAXPHONESSB Radios

FAXPHONESSB RadiosMass communication system

SirenPublic Address System

Radio BroadcastsTV broadcasts

Hazardous Tsunami Wave Detected

PHIVOLCS Issues Earthquake Bulletin

Office of the President

Criteria are not satisfied for a tsunamigenic earthquake

FAXPHONENotes

This scheme will work only if a real-time tsunami detection network is available and that tsunami travel time (lead time) is greater than 25 minutes.

Due to the shortness of lead time for issuing warning, Alert level 3 which means evacuate to safe grounds will be directly issued without passing thru Alert Level 1 which means prepare for possible evacuation whenever an hazardous tsunami wave is confirmed by the real-time detection network.

For areas with smaller lead time, PHIVOLCS will not be able to provide warning. The public is advised to use natural precursors such as very strong ground shaking , sea level recession and rumbling sounds. If any of these phenomena are observed, the public is advised to automatically moved to high grounds or to tall and sturdy buildings for safety.

The critical part of the warning scheme is from OCD to LGUs and then LGUs to Affected coastal communities. OCD should devise an effective mass communication techniques that can rapidly disseminate the warning to the affected coastal communities.

GSM

FAXPHONE

The Data Receiving Center (DRC) of PHIVOLCS showing the real time data acquisition computers and data processing computers

One of the seismic recorders is attached to an alarm system which activates a siren to alert duty seismologist to start data processing whenever a significant earthquake is detected.

An SMS or rapid mass texting system for quick dissemination of earthquake and tsunami advisories is also provided.

Tsunami Hazard Mapping

• Computer Hardware and software and

• Technical expertise for tsunami modelling

• Understanding of the earthquake potential and mechanism of submarine faults and subduction systems (Highest Magnitude and sense of movement)

• Bathymetry of wave propagation path from source to shoreline (2 min X 2min resolution is downloadable from NOAA website)

Hazard Mapping Needs

• Detailed near shoreline bathymetry (20sec X 20sec resolution) – To accurately model

focusing and defocusing effects

• High resolution topographic maps of coastal areas (1:5,000 scale with 1-meter contour interval) – To accurately model

tsunami inundation

• Information on roughness of coastal areas that can slow down inland advance and affect inundation distance of tsunami (smoothness of coast, presence of forest cover or mangroves, built up areas with tall buildings).

• Locations of risk elements from very recent aerial photographs

Development of Sensor• Design and pilot testing

of the sensors• Completed actual

sensor interfacing and signal propagation test using the satellite communication set up of Bolinao seismic station

• Reconnaissance survey and selection of a suitable site for the station

Site Selection SurveyCRITERIA• Nearest point to the tsunami

source for early detection

• Sloping shoreline so that sensors can be positioned at varying elevations

• Accessible by road for easy maintenance

• Safe from vandalism and possible loss of expensive equipment and instruments by burglary

The Selected Instrument Site

Location of the 1-meter elevation sensor near shoreline

Location of the communication instrument vault and antenna on top of a hill

Site Selection for Sensors• Negotiation and signing of contract with the

land owner • Completed the designs of civil works and

estimate of materials• Completed the paper works for the purchase

of the imported communication equipment

Brgy. Tagbak, Lubang Island • Construction of

Sensor Pier & Recorder Vault

• Installation of Monitoring and Communication Equipment

• Development of Tsunami Evacuation Map

• Installation of Tsunami Signages

• Information Campaign

Instrumentation • Construction of Sensor

Pier and Instrument Vault• Installation of Sensor &

Communication Equipment

Tsunami Sensor

Satellite Communication Equipment

Propagation Tests

Tsunami Evacuation Map

Tsunami Evacuation Map

Tsunami Signages

Tsunami Evacuation Map

Tsunami Evacuation Map

Tsunami Signages

Information Campaign • Brgy. Tagbak & Looc• Lectures• Information Materials• Turn-over of

Evacuation Plan• Field Visit & Walk-

through of Plan

Site visit of Brgy. Tagbak LGU Officials

Distribution of Tsunami Information Materials

TSUNAMI POSTER

TSUNAMI COMICS IN DIFFERENT LOCAL LANGUAGES

The Road Ahead • Refinement of the

Hazard Mapping in Lubang Island and Manila Bay– DOST-GIA Project– READY Project

• Mass Alert System– SMS Alert System– Coastal emergency

sirens using GSM technology

THANK YOU VERY MUCH

Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Management

The Philippines Hazardscape

• Situated in the Pacific ring of fire (2 major tectonic plates meet)

• Located along the typhoon belt (Western North Pacific Basin) where 66% of tropical cyclones enter or originate

• 17,000 km coastlines are increasingly exposed to high risk and more vulnerable to tidal surges

• 1995-2003: Annual average of 8,161 fire incidents• Annual direct damage from previous disasters

between 1990-2006 amount to Php 20B per year (.5% of the GDP on the average per year)

The Philippines Hazardscape

• Flooding has become most prevalent disaster since 2000

• Environmental factors (denuded forests) aggravated flood risks.

• Lost of forest cover increase likelihood of drought and poor availability of water

The Philippines Hazardscape

• Among the countries where a large percentage of population reside in disaster prone areas

• Disparities in poverty incidence

• Complex emergenciesRANKED #1 as the Most Disaster

Prone Country in the World

Natural hazards are part and parcel of the Philippine environment, but disasters happen because human

settlements, infrastructures, people and economic activities are placed

where hazards occur

• Climatic changes• Rapid and unplanned urbanization• Poverty and ignorance• Corruption and inefficiency• Poor coordination • Environmental degradation• Lack of planning• “Bahala na” and do not care attitude- lack

of cohesiveness in the community• Poor enforcement of the law

The Current Challenges

Among its effects are:

• Prolonged droughts threaten food security and water availability

• Coastal Flooding becomes more frequent and salt-water intrusion threatens water supply and food production

• Tropical storms get more intense with higher wind speeds and rainfall

• More heavy rainfall causes destructive floods,landslides and contamination of water supplies

• Disease carrying mosquitoes and tics move tonew areas, malaria and dengue fever spread

• More and more people died and/or are injured or displaced because of the disasters

• Much needed resources for development are siphoned to relief and rehabilitation

THUSPermeating the cycle of disaster

and poverty

As a result:

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The answer is a resounding

NO10

• The state of readiness is not measured by the number of equipment and resources that we have

• We need to change mindsets“LEADER and the MASSES/PEOPLE

magsama sama para labanan ang sakuna”

• Eradicate the mindset of dependency• We need to fix the problem than fixing the

blame11

A DISASTER is a serious disruption of the functioning of a society, causing

widespread human, material or environmental losses which exceed the ability of the affected society to cope

using only its own resources

Defining Disaster

Disaster as a process

• A disaster is the outcome of a process where communities suffer destructive damage of a physical, economical, psychological, social or organizational nature because they did not have the awareness, response preparedness, capacity to prevent or mitigate and/or the capacity to respond in the face of a pre-existing risk.

UnderstandingWHO

is responsiblefor the disaster?

The “Crunch” Diagram

Vulnerability(exposure)

DISASTER Hazards(trigger events)

D = H x V

Managing Disasters the RC Way

Strengthening community resilience to disastersby organizing a strong network of volunteers at

the grassroots level

We have started the massive +143 membership efforts with a target membership of 1.8M residents in all Barangays.

And, we have created the Operations Center (OPCEN) to synchronize all of our preparation and action.

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We can get to you faster. And help immediately.

We have the OPCEN which will direct the necessary help and assistance your way in the event of an emergency or disaster.

We can assist with your blood requirements.

We can provide rescue services.

We can build houses for those truly affected.

We can provide medicine.

We can provide food.

We can provide Tracing Services.

We can provide Stress De-briefing and Psychological Services.

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Why Red Cross 143?

Being our man on the ground, a +143 Volunteer must be able to communicate.

Tell us what s/he sees, hear and feel.

Use a whistle to call people’s attention in an emergency.

CALL the OPCEN 143 and provide information that will enable OPCEN to mobilize support and coordination with our partner agencies.

Mobilize the local +143 Chapter to help in assisting others.

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Duties of Red Cross 143 Volunteers

Key MessagesK• Disasters are the result of a confluence of events-

importance to differentiate the hazards from thefinal trigger

• Integrating disaster management in developmentplanning is of primordial importance

• A good disaster plan takes into account and recognizesthe roles of individuals, families, institutions and systemsin the community

• Forewarned is forearmed

• Safety starts in the individual, to the family and to thecommunity

We may not have the power

over what mother nature can do.

But we can have the control

thru proper knowledge, preparation and

cohesiveness with the COMMUNITY at the center of our efforts.

THANK YOU