-
Dr. Alan Beaulieu
President
A Good Year Ahead
Paperboard Packaging Council
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
ITR Economics provides the best economic intelligence to
reduce
risk and drive practical and profitable business decisions.
Duration Accuracy
US GDP 15 99.1%
US Ind. Prod. 10 99.9%
Eur Ind. Prod. 15 99.2%
Canada Ind Prod 15 99.6%
China Ind Prod 18 99.3%
Retail Sales 18 99.8%
Housing 15 95.6%
Employment 14 99.7%
2016 Forecast Results2
2
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
24.5%
15.2%
5.6%4.6%3.9%
3.3%
2.8%
2.5%
2.4%
2.1%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.2%1.0%1.0%
0.9%0.9%
19.7%
United States
China
Rest of World
Japan
Australia
Percent of 2015 World GDP by Country
Data Source: IMF, *Brazil is an IMF Estimated Figure 3
*Total 2015 World GDP:
$73.599 Trillion, US$
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US States Renamed for Countries with Similar GDPs
Data Sources: BEA; IMF 4
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Net Migration Between States, July 2014-July 2015
Source: William H. Frey - Census Estimates
Darla Cameron – Washington Post
5
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
State Population Growth Rates
Source: Census Bureau
Percent Change from Population Estimates 2010 to 2015
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production to Gross Domestic Product
Sources: FRB, BEA
Year-over-Year, Quarter-to-Quarter (3/12)
-6.8%
-2.9%-5.3%
-15.5%
0.4
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
'82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
'14 '16 '18 '20
GDPUS IP
GDP
US IP
Manufacturing: highest 12MMA in 8 yrs
Mining: normal seasonal rise
Industrial Production had a steeper than
normal increase in Dec, the best since 2011
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
12-Month Moving Average 12/12 Rate-of-ChangeYear-over-Year
Growth Rate
• Annual Trend:
• Phase:
• Year-over-Year:
Industry
Outlook
2017:
2018:
2019:
US Industrial Production Index
US Industrial Production Index
104.3
A
-0.7%
2.7%
1.1%
-1.1%
Source: FRB
84
89
94
99
104
109
114
84
89
94
99
104
109
114
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
3-Month Moving Average 3/12 Rate-of-ChangeQuarter-over-Quarter
Growth Rate
• Annual Trend:
• Phase:
• Year-over-Year:
Industry
Outlook
2017:
2018:
2019:
US Gross Domestic Product
US Gross Domestic Product
$16.7 trillion
B
1.6%
3.7%
1.7%
-1.9%
Source: BEA 9
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
5
10
15
20
25
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Raw
Apr-15 1.4
May-15 1.5
Jun-15 1.5
Jul-15 1.4
Aug-15 1.5
Sep-15 1.3
Oct-15 1.3
Nov-15 1.6
Dec-15 1.6
Jan-16 1.5
Feb-16 1.7
Mar-16 1.6
Apr-16 1.7
May-16 1.7
Jun-16 1.7
Jul-16 1.6
Aug-16 1.7
Sep-16 1.5
Oct-16 1.5
Nov-16 1.9
Dec-16 1.7
Jan-17 1.7
Feb-17 1.9
Mar-17 1.7
3/12 Rate-of-Change
= 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ 2017 3𝑀𝑀𝑇
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ 2016 3𝑀𝑀𝑇× 100 − 100
=5.3
4.8× 100 − 100 = 10.4%
3MMT
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.2
4.5
4.7
4.8
4.8
5.0
5.0
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.9
5.1
5.3
5.3
5.3
12MMT
18.0
18.2
18.4
18.6
18.8
19.0
19.2
19.4
19.7
19.8
20.0
20.2
20.3
12/12
26.7%
25.5%
25.2%
22.4%
20.0%
18.3%
15.4%
12.7%
12/12 Rate-of-Change
= 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ 2017 12𝑀𝑀𝑇
𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑐ℎ 2016 12𝑀𝑀𝑇× 100 − 100
=20.3
18.0× 100 − 100 = 12.7%
3/12
15.9%
13.6%
13.6%
14.3%
14.6%
16.7%
13.3%
12.8%
10.4%
10.4%
Data Preparation
DATACAST !
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles (deflated) to US Real
Gross Domestic Product
Rates-of-Change
11
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
Sales
Sales Forecast
Index
IndexSales
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production to
US Wholesale Trade Nondurable Goods
Sources: FRB, US Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
12
12
0.6%
-24
-16
-8
0
8
16
24
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
WholesaleUS IP
US IP
Wholesale
3/12 - 5.3% A
12/12 Dec ‘15 L
12MMT $2.745 Tn 3Q16 Low
2016 -3.2% 2017 6.1%
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Wholesale Trade of Nondurable Goods to US Consumer Nondurable
Goods New Orders
12/12 Rates-of-Change
13
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Sales
Sales Forecast
New Orders
New Orders Forecast
New OrdersSales
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
-20
-10
0
10
20
-20
-10
0
10
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
ContainersUS IP
US IP
Containers
US Industrial Production to Paperboard Containers Production
Source: FRB
12/12 Rates-of-Change
14
1.1%
Correlation .81
leads IP by 3 months
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Paperboard Producer Price Index
Source: BLS
1982=100
15
1.1%
-3.2%
234.05
150
200
250
300
350
-75
-50
-25
0
25
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMAR-O-C
3/1212/12
3MMA
12MMA
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
United States OverviewWeekly Oil Price & Rig Count
Sources: EIA, Baker Hughes
Rigs: Weekly Count WTI: Average Weekly Price
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
Jan 2014 May 2014 Sep 2014 Jan 2015 May 2015 Sep 2015 Jan 2016
May 2016 Sep 2016 Jan 2017 May 2017 Sep 2017
USD/bblRig Count
Oil Rigs
WTI Price - Shifted 13 Weeks
16
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles (deflated) to North
American Rotary Rig Count
:
12/12 Rates-of-Change
17
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Sales
Sales Forecast
Index
IndexSales
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Renewable Energy Consumption
Source: EIA
Quadrillion Btu
10.1
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
18
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Source: EIA.gov
Million Metric Tons
19
5122.7
4700
4900
5100
5300
5500
5700
5900
6100
6300
4700
4900
5100
5300
5500
5700
5900
6100
6300
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
'20
Jul 2016Mar 1993:
5116.0 MMT
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Ongoing Concerns
20
China
NAFTA and International Trade
Brexit
South America
US Debt
Health Care
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Trade in Goods with World: Exports to Trade Weighted Exchange
Rate Index
Sources: Census Bureau, FRED
12/12 Rates-of-Change
21
-1.9%
-0.2%
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Exchange RateExports
Exports
Exchange Rate
3/12: 2.2% B
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Federal Government Spending on Healthcare
Source: USGovernmentspending.com
Billions of Dollars
22
7.5%
7.5%
1105.9
200
500
800
1100
1400
1700
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMTR-O-C
3/12 12/12
3MMT
12MMT
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total Expenditure on Health as a Percent of GDP(1995-2013)
Source: World Bank
Percent
23
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
USA
FRA
SWI
GER
CAN
NLD
NZL
DEN
SWE
UK
NOR
AUS
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Retail Sales (deflated) to Prescription Drug and
Nonprescription Drug Expenditures
Sources: US Census Bureau, US Dept of Commerce BEA
12/12 Rates-of-Change
24
-20
-10
0
10
20
-8
-4
0
4
8
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Prescription/NonRetail Sales
Retail Sales
Prescription
NonPrescription
1.7% Sales
4.9% Prescript
5.5% Non
3/12 7.0% C
STNA seasonal rise
12MMT at a record high
More rise ahead
3/12 2.8%
12MMT at a record high
More rise ahead
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Federal Government Current Tax Receipts to Consumption
Expenditures to Current Transfer Payments to GDP
Source: BEA
Billions of Dollars
$0
$2,500
$5,000
$7,500
$10,000
$12,500
$15,000
$17,500
$20,000
$0
$375
$750
$1,125
$1,500
$1,875
$2,250
$2,625
$3,000
1946 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994
1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018
GDPTax/Exp/Paym
Current Tax Receipts
Consumption Expenditures
Current Transfer Payments
GDP
25
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total U.S. Public Debt
Source: USgovernmentspending.com
(% of GDP)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
122.2%
26
The Long View…
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
CBO Projection Statistics
Data Source: CBO, 2015
Billions of Dollars
A B C D E
B+C+D/E Net Interest HealthcareSocial
Security
Total
Spending
2015 56% 234 936 882 3,690
2030 69% 1,176 2,251 2,049 7,896
2035 71% 1,602 3,041 2,589 10,110
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US/Global Recovery – Good Days Ahead
28
Consumers are in great shape
Interest Rates remain favorable
Employment rising, as are wages
Banks are lending
Retail Sales at a record high level
Housing Starts
Commodity Prices are experiencing some upside pressure
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Global Leading Indicators
Source: Markit Economics
1/12 Rates-of-Change
5.8%
8.2%
5.7%
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
EZ Comp PMI
EU Manufacturing PMI
JP Morgan Global MFG PMI
OECD plus 6 major NME up
5 Major Asia up
Brazil up
Canada up
China up
India up
Japan up
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
CConsumer
Prices
00
Soft Landing
A
B
D
Housing
Trends 10
Production
Medical
New Orders
Financial
Retail
Wholesale Trade
Foreign
Nonresidential
Construction
Hard Landing
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Foreign Direct Investment
Source: BEA
Billions of Dollars
$348.2
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
12MMT
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Manufacturing Production Index
Source: FRB
2012 = 100, Raw Data
104.6
30
50
70
90
110
130
30
50
70
90
110
130
'72 '74 '76 '78 '80 '82 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02
'04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Manufacturing
1. Near –Sourcing
2. Technology
3. Capital vs. Labor
4. Energy
5. Consumer base
Record High
Repeal NAFTA?
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index
Source: Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Ltd and US Council on
Competitiveness
Index Score: 100 = High, 10 = Low
Rank Country Index Score
1 China 100.0
2 United States 99.5
3 Germany 93.9
4 Japan 80.4
5 South Korea 76.7
6 United Kingdom 75.8
7 Taiwan 72.9
8 Mexico 69.5
9 Canada 68.7
10 Singapore 68.4
2016 (Current)
Rank Country Index Score
1 United States 100.0
2 China 93.5
3 Germany 90.8
4 Japan 78.0
5 India 77.5
6 South Korea 77.0
7 Mexico 75.9
8 United Kingdom 73.8
9 Taiwan 72.1
10 Canada 68.1
2020 (Projected)
• Talent is the most important driver of a country’s ability
to
compete on the global stage
• Cost competitiveness is the second most influential driver
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production to ITR Leading Indicator™
Sources: FRB, ITR Economics
USIP – 12/12 Indicator - Monthly
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
'20
IndicatorUS IP
Indicator - Monthly
US IP - 12/12
34
Reported in ITR Trends Report – ITR Advisor
As seen in
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production to US Total Industry Capacity
Utilization Rate
Source: FRB
Rates-of-Change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
US IP
US IP Forecast
Utilization Rate
Utilization RateUS IP
1/12
12/12
35
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Industrial Production Index to US Owner Occupied Housing
Inventory
Sources: FRB, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
'92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18
US IP
US IP Forecast
Inventory
InventoryUS IP
36
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Purchasing Managers Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management
1/12 Rate-of-Change
16.1%
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
1/12
Leads US Economy by
9-14 months
As seen in
37
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Paperboard Containers Production Index to Purchasing Managers
Index
Rates-of-Change
38
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
-21
-14
-7
0
7
14
21
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Production Index
Production - 12/12
Index - 1/12
The PMI 1/12 has a 8 month lead
time to the Paperboard Containers
Production Index 12/12.
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
Source: Institute for Supply Management
Above 50 Indicates expansion
39
55.4
45
50
55
60
65
45
50
55
60
65
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Raw Data
12MMA
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
Source: Chicago Federal Reserve Board
6-Month Moving Average
-0.1
-4.7
-3.9
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.9
-4.7
-3.9
-3.1
-2.3
-1.5
-0.7
0.1
0.9
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
6MMA
40
40
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Stock Prices Index
Source: WSJ
S&P 500, 1941-43 = 10
15.6%
8.1%
2196.7
200
1000
1800
2600
3400
4200
5000
-120
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMAR-O-C
1/12
12/12
Actual
12MMA
41
41
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders w/o Aircraft
Source: Census Bureau
Billions of Dollars
1.0%
-2.6%
$761.0
500
750
1000
1250
1500
-60
-40
-20
0
20
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMTR-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMT12MMT
42
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders (excl. Aircraft) to
Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Sources: Census Bureau, FRB
Rates-of-Change
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20
New Orders
New Orders Forecast
Utilization Rate
Utilization RateNew Orders
1/12 12/12
43
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Crude Oil Futures Prices to US Nondefense Capital Goods New
Orders (excluding aircraft)
Sources: WSJ, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
44
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-90
-60
-30
0
30
60
90
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Oil Prices
Oil Prices Forecast
New Orders
New Orders Forecast
New OrdersOil Prices
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
-2.6%-2.6%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Capital GoodsCopper
Copper Futures Prices
Capital Goods
US Copper Futures Prices toUS Nondefense Capital Goods New
Orders(excluding aircraft)
Sources: WSJ, Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
45
3/12 -21.1% A Dec ‘15 Low
3MMA up 5.7% Jan ‘16 Low
Mildest since ‘92, but normal
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Wholesale Trade of Nondurable Goods to US Nondefense Capital
Goods New Orders (excluding aircraft)
:
12/12 Rates-of-Change
46
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Sales
Sales Forecast
New Orders
New Orders Forecast
New OrdersSales
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Paperboard Containers Production Index to Nondefense Capital
Goods New Orders without Aircraft
12/12 Rates-of-Change
47
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-21
-14
-7
0
7
14
21
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
New OrdersProduction
Production
New Orders
The Nondefense Capital Goods
New Orders 12/12 has a 5 month
lag time to the Paperboard
Containers Production Index
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Overall Wage Growth
Source: FRB Atlanta
Percent
0
1
2
3
4
5
'06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Raw Data
48
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Median Annual Earnings (deflated)
Source: BLS
Constant (1982-84) Dollars
49
$351.0
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Median Earnings - Raw Data
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Consumer Credit
Source: FRB
Trillions of Dollars
7.6%
7.9%
1.3
0.4
0.7
1.0
1.3
1.6
1.9
2.2
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMAR-O-C
12/123/12
Actual12MMA
50
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Real Personal Income Less Transfer ReceiptsAverage per Person
Age 18 to 65
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, BLS
12MMA Data Trend
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
$55,000
$60,000
$65,000
51
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Housing Starts
Source: Census Bureau
Millions of Units
8.4%4.4%
1.185
0.2
1.0
1.9
2.7
3.5
4.4
5.2
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMTR-O-C
3/12
12/12
3MMT 12MMT
52
Mar ‘13
May ‘11
Dec ‘09As seen in
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Housing Price Index
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Year over Year % Change
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
275
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Raw Data
$242.3$228.3
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Retail Sales (deflated)
Source: Census Bureau
Trillions of Dollars
1.6%
1.7%
$2.296
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
-18
-14
-9
-5
0
5
9
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMTR-O-C
3/12 12/12
3MMT 12MMT
54
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Paperboard Containers Production Index to Retail Sales at
Grocery Stores
12/12 Rates-of-Change
55
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16
Retail SalesProduction
Production
Retail Sales
The Retail Sales at Grocery
Stores 12/12 has a 5 month
lag time to the Paperboard
Containers Production Index
12/12.
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Grocery Stores Retail Sales
Source: Census Bureau
Billions of $
1.1%
1.8%
630.8
350
450
550
650
750
850
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMTR-O-C
12MMT
3MMT
3/1212/12
56
3/12 3.1% B
Mildest seasonal decline on record
12MMT at a record high
More rise ahead
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Total Retail Sales (not deflated) toUS Health & Personal
Care Retail Stores
Source: US Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Retail SalesPersonal Care
Personal Care
Retail Sales
3.2%
7.4%
3/12 6.2% B
MTA seasonal decline
12MMT at a record high
More rise ahead
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
SalesGoods
Sporting Goods
Retail Sales
-0.5%
1.5%
US Total Retail Sales (deflated) to
US Sporting Goods Retail Stores
Source: US Census Bureau
12/12 Rates-of-Change
58
3/12 4.3% C12MMA Rising
Best 4Q since 2005Steeper than normal Jan seasonal decline
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Total Retail Sales (deflated) to US Beverage Production
Index
12/12 Rates-of-Change
-8
-4
0
4
8
-12
-6
0
6
12
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Retail SalesBeverage
Beverage Production
Retail Sales
1.5%
-0.2%
59
3/12 1.7% B
Jan ‘16 12/12 low
12MMA 0.4% off Dec ‘15 low
More rise ahead
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
Percent Who Think They Will Marry and Have Kids
Source: The Council of Economic Advisers 60
Percent
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Consumer Price Index to US Producer Price Index
Source: FRB
1/12 Rate-of-Change
2.7%
3.7%
-10
-5
0
5
10
-10
-5
0
5
10
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
Consumer Price
Producer Price
61
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
US Paperboard Containers Production Index
Source: FRB
Rates-of-Change
3.3%1.1%
105.6
90
102
114
126
138
150
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20
MMAROC
3/12
12/12
3MMA12MMA
62
32221 Paperboard Container Manufacturing
This industry comprises establishments primarily engaged in
converting paperboard into containers without
manufacturing paperboard. These establishments use corrugating,
cutting, and shaping machinery to form
paperboard into containers. Products made by these
establishments include boxes, corrugated sheets, pads,
pallets, paper dishes, and fiber drums, and reels.
Exog says 12/12 May ‘16 Low
MTN 3MMA seasonal decline,
but one month longer than normal
12MMA - 0.2%, mildest on record
Projected Aug ‘16 L
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First in Forecasts Since 1948
Commodity Prices
Source: WSJ, London Metal Exchange, Metalprices.com, Steel
Market Update
3/12 Rates-of-Change
63
64.6% Zinc
39.4% Tin32.6% Lead
16.5% Alum
50.7% Steel
25.4% Copper
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
All Others Copper & Steel
-
First in Forecasts Since 1948
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
FOMC Member Interest Rate Projections
Source: FRB 64
Fed Open Market Committee
March 2017December 2016
-
First in Forecasts Since 194865
If you only remember two things from my presentation, they
should be…
1. Reset expectations – these are the good old day!
2. Look for capacity constraints throughout your company.
When you get back to your office, the two things you should do
are...
1. Have a discussion regarding willingness to take on risk.
2. Make the necessary changes in people, process,
leadership.
-
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