A Neighborhood Rediscovered

8/9/2019 A Neighborhood Rediscovered

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P A P E R S E R I E S

A NEIGHBORHOOD REDISCOVEREDTURKEYS TRANSATLANTIC VALUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

BY KEMAL , NATHALIE TOCCI, AND JOSHUA WALKERTRANSATLANTIC ACADEMY


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A Neighborhood Rediscovered

Turkeys transatlantic value in the Middle East

Brussels Forum Paper Series

March 2010

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T T Am G M F U S, ZEI-S E G B G, R B S, L H B F I , A P G F R G E R P (ERP) F M E A C S P w


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urkeys transatlantic value in the Middle East3

Turkeys promise

in the region

hinges on its

consistent pursu

of democratizatio

at home and

a norm-based

foreign policy

abroad.

w E, M E, U S I j, M E Y w A , M EHw w A/S I/A , w , q W C W,

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w--- w G, S, K WP (PKK)4

I , ME

M, A (999) Nw A FP SAIS Review, V 9, N, 93

F A E 996 q M, M (998) D C FPMiddle East Journal, V 5, N , 35, 34

3 I -99, G, A, I , G S 995 G S

4 E, (996) / W S Perceptions:Journal of International Affairs (A), V , N , 3357

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w x ? Hw w w M E? M , w w , M E, US, E U?

w w E U U SA w M E W, E A Y M E z - I , M E EU w

U S w EU

Introduction

1


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he German Marshall Fund of the United States4

The fallout for

Turkey of an Israeli

nuclear attack on

Iran or an Iranian

nuclear attack on

Israel would be

equally disastrous.

- M E , w I, Iq, S, I-P

Improving relations with (almost) all

neighbors

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6 A, B () F P w I:I F P FxJournal of Third WorldStudies, V 8, N , 54

7 Mj -Kq I

7 8 B 8 I S , x I Y w I x J - P A N Sz I K A9

M , K q w , -I I -I x I q , E U U S,j I Y, W, I w I w ,w I

z I (9 ) EU US (8 5 ,) B w I I, , A FM D D 9, I I I I w q H,

8 S w9 , (8) M E P:Bw N O K Carnegie Papers, N, S 8,

Transatlantic Trends (9) Topline Data, GM F U S, www

M F A A D , D 8,9, SEA, W

The Sea Change in Turkeys Middle

Eastern policies2


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The notion of

addressing

and attempting

to resolve

longstanding

conflicts through

dialogue with

neighbors is a

conspicuous

characteristic of

the government i

power in Turkey.

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99 , w SH Iq , w PKK, q N Iq w K Iq w K- , M 3 U S w Iq L

w UN-, US Iq w Iq w U S,w w wS I, w z K, w Iq (N Iq ) I , j - K N Iq, KR G (KRG)

PKK, q N Iq PKK, w Uw N3

S 7, w, w Iq, KRG wx w U S 7 w PKK K ,

F 8

K, K (993) P C : DM R A Low Intensity Conflict and LawEnforcement, V , N , 7-53

3 L, A (7) Turkeys Unwelcome NeighbourL, IB


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Talking Turkish

meant both

credible threats

but also massive

engagement

thereafter.

PKK w N Iq S 7-8 Iq Kq, Iq K , w KRG, KRG PKK4 , , , w 9 FDI 5 I S 9,

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F 939 w S w S U C WM , K q -S S PKK, Sw z j F 99, w

4 w w 9, Iq P J , w K , B P A G, w S H, w w P Iq K M Bz

5 K, K (9) F P: R S New Perspectiveson Turkey, N 4, 956, 47 F w

S w D PKK, PKK A A ( ) - E R S, w , w w E, w w I , S PKK w ,w S Sw w S A Pj D

99 w I S PKK - z S 998 D PKK A x S O 998 q K

S q

PKK w w w O q AP,6 w , , A , 7 w P Sz

S P Hz -A W , w

6 A, M B (999) -S C O 998: VwMiddle East Policy , V 6 N 4, 749

7 Iw w x S, D, O 9


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J D P (AKP), w S P B -A J 4, w w D4 w P M R E D Iq, M3 , j Iq , A (EU) S,8 S , ,

- , O9, S CC H-L CC w Iq9

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S, L, O P I , O , A C R S WG M 99 997 I P H (IPH)

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A Nw, I, Swz, D, Sw

B, O (9) A I O

w I : A Vw I Insight Turkey,V , N , 43-55

3 D, J () I BBCNews 4 A, ://w////969

4 MG, C (4) PM I The Guardian, 4 J

5 Turkish Daily News (6) E : U w Lw w A 4


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x A E,6

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(OBB)9

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6, z w PA H D- KM A F 63 G I-P , inter alia, H , Gz S P, wW H

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j F j w Ez I Z 5 I, w w 7, j GzY O ( O-) , j w w W B Gz 7 O C L 8

3 A H A, K M -M F AG AKP q F M


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In different

conflict hubs,

Turkeys supply

of mediation has

been matched by

demand in the

region.

W, P , w j w H

Turkey as a Mediator in the Middle East

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w I S3 J 4 x S P B -A A , w, US S, I j - -w B S 4, , w J

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D , H S P I Fw , w z UN HR R O

33 A w w

34 S w (x ) G H x I I I q( S vis--vis H, Hz Iw ) w S w I D D 3, 8, I P M O w x w S , w , w -- w S P A


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Turkey is

geographically,

historically, and

strategically

well-placed to

play a mediation

role. They are

nonetheless

emblematic of

a Turkish role in

the Arab world

that would have

hitherto been

unthinkable.

R F w [] , w zI , w Gz Iw 35 w O CL D 8-J 9 G w H, U S E U x H 36 E

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37 5+ UN S C G

38 Iw w , A, O , 9


13/34



Without

democratization

it is doubtful tha

Erdogan would

have been as

critical as he has

been of Israel

lately...

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A , w, z, -, inter alia, EU , AKP P M R E x

I , q w , , , , - , I C DA (IKA) I , , F E R B

39 S A, M S AA (7) Ez EU :U w Journal ofSouthern Europe and the Balkans, V 9, N 3, 6374; ,Z (3) M E S : I EU D Turkish Policy Quarterly,V , N 4, 84-95; A, B (7) Turkeysnew European era: Foreign policy on the road to EU membership,L, MD: : Rw & L

(DEIK), I I B A (MUSIAD), Ex A (IM), U C (OBB), I B A (USIAD), C B I(USKON) q I w w R, E, I, Iq, S, Sw 4 S,

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A, z W , w I, M 3 w U S Iq w

z w S, w x, w wC 4 A 89 W , wz E w I ,w

A AKP

4 K, K (9) : New Perspectives on Turkey,N 4, 957

Conflicting Interpretations of the

Sea Change3


14/34


The doctrine

of Strategic

Depth provides

a normative

chapeau to the

plethora of state

and non-state

interests that

concomitantly

push Turkey to

develop deeper

and stronger ties

to its neighbors.

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4

w AKP w w w AKP O I w ,w w I w, S D -

I z P M P z 98 99 M F A I C 9943

4 F , W, J(7) L S D: I w Insight Turkey, V 9, N 3, 347

4 D , A () Startejik Derinlik TrkiyeninUluslararas Konumu, I, K F D , A (4) z R, F 6; D , A (8) F P V: A A 7 Insight Turkey,V , N , 7796.

43 A-B, M (9) Ww M E New Perspectives on Turkey,N 4, 794

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, , , w w w , x w w G AKP , S D w w -w w

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W US EU? w M E x w I x w E

, w M E W ,


15/34



Some have

raised eyebrows

at Turkeys

Middle Eastern

policies, voicing

growing concern

that Turkey

may be losing

its European

vocation.

Turkeys drift to the east

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46 S P M E D Todays Zaman, N 9, 9; C PME ww U , TodaysZaman, J 5, 9

47 M, R W, S E (7) Is the United StatesLosing Turkey?, M 5, W, H I;C, S (5) Turkey at a Crossroads: Preserving

Ankaras Western Orientation , W, W I N E P

48 S, D (9) A NAO w The WallStreet Journal, N 5

49 K, Hz (9) A P EU: A A SWP Comments, O 9,B, SWP, 4


16/34


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x , w

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Turkey as an Independent Actor: Asset for the

United States and Europe

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5 F , A K, E(9) The Rising Tide of Conservatism in Turkey , Nw Y,P/M; G, I N (8) Trialsof Europeanization. Turkish Political Culture and the EuropeanUnion, L Nw Y, P M

53 C, S (9) w Survival, V 5N 5, O-N, 5


17/34



Turkey can no

longer be taken

for granted as

its identity and

survival are not

as self-evidently

entirely bound

up in the West

anymore. Turkey

has become

simultaneously

more European,

more democratic

more conservativ

and Islam-friendl

and, increasingly

more nationalist.

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w w j q B O:I w w

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AKP , Foreign Affairs, V 88, N 6,N-D, 88

55 Iw w A , D, O 9

56 O, B (9) R P O P G N ACx, A, A 6

57 L, I O (6) , U S D G Survival, V 48, N3, 8396

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w H, w w-

w

Y, , w U S EU 58 U S w

w F G, E w wW , ME w W w A M, , W ME () A EU M ,

M E w -

58 F, G E (4) S M: M R The Washington Quarterly, V 7, N 3, 564


18/34


Today, Turkey

represents a

critical partner

for the United

States on its

three more urgent

strategic issues

Afghanistan, Iran,

and Iraq.

Political complementarity

P, M E w U S E U w

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I 8, IKA $78 45 A P59 A , , w - A

I S A F

(ISAF) K E , , w w E C - NAO M-j , w- K A A 9,w R,M K A, z w K O A

59 IKA (9) 2008 Annual Report, A, IKA,

w , , , P O A6

O Iq, US ww US- A U S ww, US- K w - K M,US w

PKK w KRG, w Iq S , A I w O w

A A-I , , w U S - ( -Iq,S Iq, S S A) -w W H, I, S, w w U S E U Y - , S-I w wS

6 A , w A j F A J WW, ://w/9//4/-%E%8%99--/


19/34



Considering the

fact that Turkey

boasts the secon

largest military in

NATO and is the

only functioning

Muslim-majority

democracy in the

alliance, Turkey is

well-placed to pla

a leading role in

Kabul.

6

Hw, w I 6 w I, S, w w w U S 63 I w W, w S w I

, O w U S - I-S , w - Lw I-P , w H - US/EU w Y I, w , , I w U S EU x I

H I-P

64 w I, w U S EU w , I w P

6 Iw w S , ,W D, O 9

6 S N: S Haaretz, O 8, 9, ://wwwz///73 R 9--8

63 Iw w S I , D, J, I, O 9

64 B , w W w w I H

q, w I 99 w w x w w M, w, w x O , w w w I W w A w (S ) 998, w I

A-I W -I w A-I A- w , -I I 65 I , w -I w w I w S 68 w w Hw J D 8 R O C L D

8J 9 w I ( x) ( w ) w w US EU

I , , z , US EU , w G W B w I

8, IKA $8 98 , , w w j

65 Iw w I , J, , A, O N 9


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Finally, Turkey,

unlike the United

States and

European Union, is

an actor of and

not simply in the

Middle East.

w w S w - Oz I C (OIC), j w x OIC Y P A 5 C D S M 866 w NGO , ,, w j z w

, U S E U w x P w , - , EU US w z

F, , U S EU, M

E A , I M E, I I, w w, x, B , w 67 S P S D j vis--vis I68 w w I A S , W

66 Iw w OIC , O 9

67 L EU U S, w

68 F x, I , 7 , w w x S, P, S9

S , I; w , 69 I, S w, z Iq, A w, W, M E E S A, , P -A Y, w, A

w - A w E A, M E M E I W ( ME), w / , /, W/-W, S/S, I/A, W/I w , M, W j

w -W M M E; S w j w S ( I), ( Hz), ( Aw S ), w j w Iq L; A I w j w

Socio-economic complementarity

A - ,

M E w , , ,w W I ,w xz w S I

69 Iw, D, O 9


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w, x w E E M E

W C W, x- w P M P z, w - x- 98 I j

, z w , w 7H, q G 986 w S U 99, z SB E 7 w W E w j w w E w w ,

Y A, w W E7 Sq, E U w w w EE EU F E;

7 F x z S, S (99) : ES E G CMiddle East Journa,

V 46, N , 9; z, S (995)O N B LW: G, D P, F P M E G K J G S ()Powder Keg in the Middle East: The Struggle for Gulf Security ,L, MD, Rw L

7 K, K (5) A S w: x European Journalof Migration and Law, V 7, N 4, 343367

7 C, S (993) Beyond Borders: West EuropeanMigration Policy Towards the 21st Century, L: RI I A, 395

E EU S z , ,,

I , , S B w w w 73 w- w x-S w74

, D , w EU 5 99 4 8 w w x-S w 9 99 9 8 w , w -w j , (FDI) BS, I, W

U w M E x, w x x w x-S w75

73 E, M () Redefining Contagion: The PoliticalEconomy of the Suitcase Trade between Turkey and Russia,I R Ex, B C SR P, , J; A, Cz O, N (994) R E-W M: P International

Migration, V 3, N , 343353

74 x-S w S U w w S B B R

75 x w G F, w w w w , , x w -W S F,G (99) Turkey Faces East: New Orientations Toward the

Middle East and the Old Soviet Union, S M, R, x


22/34


w S w w M E D z w M E w, Aw w

Iq, w , w E, L, S z U x-S w, A 99 w q

w w A M Ew w EU 999 A S 5, ,

M E F 99 7, x-S w w, , j 48

Table 1: Foreign trade relations between Turkey and its neighborsin million USD, 1991, 2000, and 2008

99 8

Ex I OAL Ex I OAL Ex I OAL

G 44 77 438 43 869 ,43 ,5 3,58

B 76 4 6 53 465 78 ,5 ,84 3,99

R 5 99 34 36 674 , 3,987 3,548 7,535

M 6 7 33 98 7 68

U ,88 6,6 8,94 ,88 6,6 8,94

R 6 ,97 ,78 644 3,887 4,53 6,483 3,364 37,847

G 3 55 87 998 55 ,53Azj 3 96 36 ,667 98 ,595

I 487 9 578 36 86 5 ,3 8, ,3

Iq 49 64 3,97 ,3 5,38

S 64 67 33 84 545 79 ,5 639 ,754

E 69 48 7 376 4 57 ,46 943 ,369

I 79 78 57 65 55 55 ,935 ,448 3,383

,57 ,89 4,346 5,683 3,88 9,5 3,56 58,83 88,69

EU 7,348 9,896 7,44 4,5 6,6 4, 63,39 74,8 38,9

U S 93 ,55 3,68 3,35 3,9 7,46 4,3 ,976 6,76

G 3,593 ,47 34,64 7,775 54,53 8,78 3,7 ,964 333,99S: S I, F C , www

N : 8 N : R, G, Mq, F G EU 99N 3: F 99, R USSR , x M, U, G, Azj 99N 4: F , x Iq


23/34



I , ME w -, w- w Iw j - 96

R, w M E x

E, Iq, S, G I 99 Fw -S 4, , w 8 ( ), x w E, S D 9 q F E R B (DEIK), x S w E, S

w A H w , , w w I w w A (HY) M E N A (MENA)

I 97, HY w 7 , w W E w w S w L I I 9, w 7 3, 39 S B 3 MENA

76

S A EU w,E w S 77 , j S Gz, j w

76 Nz, A (8) Trkiyede Sivil Havacln Geliimive THY(M , M U, SS I, I) A

77 Iw R (9) A GJ 6

Table 2: Entry of persons from the neighborhood of Turkey

for 1980, 1990, 1996, 2005, and 2007

98 99 996 5 7

S U 4,5 ,537

R ,35,9 ,855,9 ,454,96

R x-S x B 385,966 ,55,794 ,347,4

OAL x-S U x B S ,6,56 3,47,694 4,793,3

B 59,87 854,5 597,359 ,76,694 ,37,499

M E 8,6 39,377 59, ,45,37 ,646,76

G OAL ,57,364 ,3,5 8,538,864 ,75,3 ,49,775

B : A, B, B, G, M, R, S-M 98, 99, 996 Y

M E : I, Iq, S, G

S: C F D MOI S S I A R


24/34


, w S w z A D w w Gz, K- , ,w

K q

D K J 9 Iq, N Iq A x -Iq w w , D C C (DO) N Iq M w Iq x,

C, Iq I w , H q Iq , DO ,78 E O 9 w Iq 79

R w I I

, I, w R, w w j

78 Iw w DO, O 9

79 R ME W P: S S R, Istanbul Forum, O 9, 9

, w I , AV w 8 H,

w I w I w I x, A I, w R, j WO

w I x w A - w I W I w - j w WM , w I - w j N ,P Aj,

w, M A A w w I8

I j , x M E G w ,

8 AV w , K , I Mj

8 I I C w I , A B w , Akam, F 7, 7


25/34



By indirectly

mediating Weste

influence in the

Middle East,

Turkey represent

a potentially

vital asset to the

accomplishment

of the declared

aims of the

United States an

Europe.

9 w J, L, L E D - B w w , w EU w z( ), w w EU8

O w A w A V w A w W w , M , , 83 w x x A w A A w A

w - 84

8 F w EU, D, E (9) Impact of Visa Regimes over TravelDecisions and Patterns of Turkish Citizens, MK R,I, K U

83 A S, Y S, S (9) EM: A , N AM Reflections of EU-Turkey Relations in the MuslimWorld, I, O S F, 5

84 A-Az, S J (5) I S H

Islam and Secularis, Aw, D S N ,U C S-I, 48

, w 6 7 A j w A w85

w M E w w w S w C W ww M E ,w C W,

w U E U EN P, ME I , w EN P EU86 I W M E, U S E

85 A, M (9) Orta Douda Trkiye Algs,I, ESEV Y, 3

86 A Dz, S , N (9) F P: Q RL Ez Commentary, B, CEPS,N


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For Turkeys

potential to be

fulfilled, Ankara

cannot be viewed

as fueling an

identity-driven

clash that it

supposedly

attempts to

transcend.

M E , U S, EU, , , M E Y x w U w , w , EU, U S?

The importance of consistent pursuit of

international norms

F, M

E , D I Gzw w w S P-B, w w I C C, B M E, w A w N-K U w U Xj w w w A q x I x , -

R , P M E, w w - x M E - , w w w , , w I S, P,

I I w I x W w I I w, q A , M E M , w F , A w - I,

w SP A, w q w I w 87

Turkeys democratic transformation as a

condition for a successful foreign policy

A z ,, ,, M E, x w w

S 95, , EU D 999

87 Iw w S P B -A Ez, Hurriyet, N 9, 9

Realizing Turkeys Middle Eastern

Potential4


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Turkish foreign

policy today wou

not be what it

is without the

transformation

that Turkey

experienced

under the EUs

engagement at

the turn of the

century.

AKP w N x w

Y EU O 5, EU AN Fw, 6 7

w w 88 AKP

J 7 x w Hw, w w j AKP w w

w PKK ,w w ,w N Iq, , w w KRG

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-M , x

88 O G, I N (8)Trials of Europeanization. Turkish Political Culture and theEuropean Union, L Nw Y, P M;U, E (8) U: N-R Turkish Studies, V 9, N , 73-97

J 9 w I M,B A, K K Hw, , w K , D S P (DP), w K- N,

w , w , , A , 89 D ?

I

U S E U w w w w x EU 9 w

89 , I (8) W , P PrivateView(A); Iz, S (8) Milliyet, D 6

9 O Ez , x A, M A, S (7)Ez EU : U w Journal of SouthernEurope and the Balkans, V 9, N 3, 6374; A,B (7) Turkeys new European era: Foreign policy on theroad to EU membership, , L MD; , N() (7) Conditionality, Impact and Prejudice in EU-Turkey Relations, R, IAI Q; z, M (8)Harmonizing Foreign Policy: Turkey, the EU and the Middle East,A, A


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Turkeys accession

process continues

to represent the

best guarantee

that the countrys

domestic

transformation will

proceed toward

higher standards

of democracy.

, w x , w j w x 9 A , , C A I w, q

EU accession as a guarantee for Turkeys

democratic consolidation

w q: Hw EU? S , , EU q w 9K O x , z W EU H EU , w A B

N, w w I M E ,

9 I , Mz, S C D, E() (8) Sivil Toplum ve D Politika, I, B; A,B P, R K (8) F C C: Dz R w S I Security Dialogue, V 39, N 5, 49555

E U W EU , R I Y EU , EU, , Y D H, w E , DP EU

EU w - AKP EU j w 9

R , z - , w

EU w EU A A A w 64 EU A w93

9 A A S 4, - G E B EU

x A , 8 , EU w w w O w EU, A, E, z, N A Az, D (6) M M wE Foreign Affairs, V 85, N

93 A (9), 5


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Turkeys new

self-confidence

and regional

prominence has

transformed a

static Cold-War

bulwark into a

potential catalys

for regional

stabilization.

A EU, w ( ), w w , w W E U w j , EU - , w x

w ,, , , q w- Mx U w x , EU w R , EU w

U.S.-Turkish Relations: Adapting to the 21st

Century

U S, w, E U, M E M E W P O , w US w 94G O , w

-A

94 w Transatlantic Trends (://www/) w O B E, , w w w US

U B w ,P O w M,w US ww Iq K , w - C-W w z

Hw, U S EU 95 U S w E , EU- w w EU Ww C w -EU

E U B EU , U S , , w E - w

F A A

z

95 P, H (9) W O E W, A, ://www/w///H%P%-%W%O%%%%E


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G K w EU US , , , I USS S H C PO w x, w w w w


31/34



By contributing t

the integration o

the Middle East

into the global

system, Turkeys

democracy and

liberal market

economy are

also having a

demonstrative

spillover on

its southern

neighbors,

however modest.

C W w j W I w ME U S E, W M E , , z , ,, B M E

, , w D w M E U S E U

Hw, , U S

EU EU- , w P z w

w O

Iq A, A-I , L E I, j

Conclusion

5 M E U S w w U S w ,

E U H , EU

, w w EU I w w , , , I , w j A EU Nw

Swz w w , , , , EU, ,

w C W , , Hw, q EU US W w , w w

W L ? ww M E


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A Neighborhood Rediscovered