A3 Bollywood Movies

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Market Research on

Bollywood MoviesSuccess Prediction Modelling

SubmittedTo

Dr. Atanu AdhikariMarketing Management II Course

I.I.M. Kozhikode

By

Bharat Subramony PGP/16/012

Gunveer Singh PGP/16/019

Ranjan Sharma PGP/16/040

Rohit Singla PGP/16/043

Utkarsh Rastogi PGP/16/056

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Table of Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ....................................................................................................... 3

ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................................. 4

INTRODUCTION.................................................................................................................... 5

LITERATURE REVIEW ....................................................................................................... 6

DATA PREPARATION AND CLEANING .......................................................................... 9

CODING ................................................................................................................................... 9

DATA CLEANING ..................................................................................................................... 9

IMPORTING DATA IN SPSS ....................................................................................................... 9

METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................ 10

SAMPLING ............................................................................................................................. 10

MEASUREMENT AND SCALING .............................................................................................. 10

QUALITATIVE METHOD ......................................................................................................... 10

QUANTITATIVE METHOD....................................................................................................... 11

ANALYSIS & RESULT ........................................................................................................ 12

SINGLE VARIABLE REGRESSION ............................................................................................ 12

CONJOINT ANALYSIS............................................................................................................. 17

CLUSTERANALYSIS .............................................................................................................. 21

DISCUSSION ......................................................................................................................... 25

LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY ....................................................................................... 27

FUTURE RESEARCH .......................................................................................................... 27

WORKS CITED..................................................................................................................... 28

QUESTIONNAIRE.................................................................................................................... 29

CARD FOR DUMMY VARIABLE ANALYSIS ............................................................................... 30

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Acknowledgement

A journey is easier when you travel together. Interdependence is certainly more valuable than

independence. This report on Market Research on Bollywood Movies and Modelling a

Success Prediction System is the result of work whereby we have been accompanied and

supported by many people. It is a pleasant aspect that we have now the opportunity to express

our gratitude for all of them for their valuable guidance, for devoting their precious time,

sharing their knowledge and their co-operation throughout the course of development of our

project idea and the academic years of education.

With immense pleasure we express our sincere gratitude, regards and thanks to our projectguides Prof. Atanu Adhikari for their excellent guidance, invaluable suggestions and

continuous encouragement at all the stages of our project work. We would like to thank the

staff of Crown Theatre for cooperating and assisting us in conducting our market research.

We would also like to thank the participants of Focus Group Discussions and interviews. And

finally we thank God Almighty for all that he has endowed us with and his blessings.

Group No. A3

Bharat Subramony PGP/16/012

Gunveer Singh PGP/16/019

Ranjan Sharma PGP/16/040

Rohit Singla PGP/16/043

Utkarsh Rastogi PGP/16/056

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Abstract

The project aims at formulating a mathematical model to predict the success of a mainstream

bollywood movie, based on parameters which influence it. The are obtained by secondary

data sources and insights from primary resources. Exploratory research has been conducted to

arrive at the most influential parameters. In this project, we have used Descriptive and

Statistics Analytical tools to assist in arriving the model proposition. The result of this project

is a reasonably accurate estimator of the success of any bollywood movie, even before its

inception, under given conditions of influential attributes, and help shape the future of

bollywood industry.

Keywords : Mathematical model, attributes, exploratory, success.

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Introduction

Bollywood is the informal term popularly used for the Hindi-language film industry based

in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India. Bollywood churns out around 800 movies every year.

While some movies end up into blockbusters, some fail miserably at the box office. The

increased emergence of educated middle class renders Bollywood movies into open

competition not only with other Bollywood movies but Hollywood too. It is one of the

largest employment generating industries of the Indian economy. Today, the growth of this

industry is quite phenomenal with the changing preferences of movie-goers and filmmakers.Some of the Bollywood movies involve funds running into millions of dollars. There is a lot

of fortune at stake in the performance of movies at the box office.

With this in mind, this project steers to first understand the viewers perspectives about the

bollywood industry. There are several factors that lead to a person liking or disliking a

movie. It could range from the traumatic experience in ticket queue, to a bad or noisy

neighbour in the cinema hall, or even mal-functioning air-conditioning system. So how do

we arrive at conclusive factors? The fact remains that there are much more factors affecting

the success of a movie, than just these nimble parameters. There have been cases of movies

like Sholay, which were initially declared a flop, simply because it was ahead of its time,and then in a matter of 6 months, it was a blockbuster. Or take the case of a superlow

budget movie called Stanley Ka Dabba, which bombed in box office, and won several

critical acclaims. Bollywood is nothing if not unpredictable

In this project, we first use exploratory research techniques such as Focus Group

Discussion, Group Interviews, and survey questionnaires, to absorb the opinion of the

viewers. Based on the respondents perspective about the movie, we shall try to map the

attributes to the success or failure, as perceived by the producer and the viewer. This project

has the potential to advise leading production houses and film-makers about what are the

basic dos and donts to guarantee success and avoid rapid stagnation of revenues from post-

release shows.

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Literature Review

Almost all existing studies use total domestic box office sales as a dependent variable

(Basuroy et al., 2003; Chang and Ki, 2005; Hennig-Thurau et al., 2007; Litman, 1982;

Litman, 1983; Ravid, 1999; Wyatt, 1999). Few studies use domestic and worldwide box

office sales together (Litman and Ahn, 1998). Using worldwide box office sales causes some

inconsistencies because it includes uncontrolled country-level variables such as political,

legal and cultural factors that could affect box office performance (Oh, 2001). Some studies

have used a films opening week sales as a dependent variable (Elberse and Eliashberg, 2003)

and other have used opening week sales also as an independent variable since they believe

that the early box office performance of a film (i.e. opening week) has a strong influence on a

films overall sales (DeVany and Walls, 2002; Walls, 2005). According to this assumpt ion,

audiences are more inclined to see a film once they know that many other people have seen it.

This has been confirmed by several empirical studies such as those by Elberse and Eliashberg

(2003) or Hennig-Thurau et al. (2007). For our study, we selected opening week sales as well

as total box office sales as dependent variables in order to compare the results.

The majority of studies in the literature use common variables such as genre (Chang and Ki,

2005; DeVany and Walls, 2002; Litman, 1982; Litman, 1983; Litman and Kohl, 1989;

Simonoff and Sparrow, 2000; Wallace et al.,1993; Walls, 2005; Zuckerman and Kim, 2003),

MPAA rating (Basuroy et al.,2003; Chang