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Aag ny 2012

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Text of Aag ny 2012

  • 1. Climate Des+na+ons AAG Annual Mee+ng, NY 2012 Lars Bcker &
  • 2. Background Methodology Climate change and the par+cipa+on into various ac+vi+es Climate change eects on selected des+na+on loca+on: -in terms of travelled trip-distance -in terms of urbaniza+on degree Discussion, conclusion and research outlook Contents
  • 3. Extensive knowledge on weather and travel +mes / mode choices and on climate and tourism Less aOen+on for daily ac+vi+es and des+na+ons Overemphasis on weather extremes; less aOen+on for recurring everyday weather condi+ons Geographical contexts: extensive knowledge on urban micro- climates, but hardly in rela+on to ac+vity/travel behaviours Only few studies that directly link to climate change Bcker, Dijst & Prillwitz (submiOed) Impact of weather on travel behaviour in perspec+ve: a literature review Background
  • 4. Methodology Selec+on of seasons within the last decade represen+ng current climate Selec+on of seasons within the last decade represen+ng projected 2050 climate Analyzing mobility paOerns in dierent geographical contexts Dutch Na+onal Travel Survey Bcker, Prillwitz & Dijst (submiOed) Climate Change Impacts on Mode Choices and Travelled Distances: A Comparison of Present with 2050 Weather Condi+ons for the Randstad Holland
  • 5. Methodology Spring -Warmer -Overall weOer Autumn -Warmer -Rain falls over fewer days Winter -Milder -Overall weOer -Heavier precipita+on Summer -HoOer -Longer dry periods -Heavier rain showers
  • 6. Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %
  • 7. Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %
  • 8. Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %
  • 9. Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %
  • 10. Results: ac+vity types Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 maintenance n=6989 social visit n=6530 work/study n=11421 shopping n=6044 picking up n=3856 leisure other n=4426 leisure touring n=4327 winter spring summer autumn %
  • 11. Results: ac+vity types Winter Spring Summer Autumn All seasons Work/study - - + - - Maintenance - - - 0 - Picking up + + - + + Social visit + - - + + Leisure touring + + - - + Leisure shopping - - + + - Leisure other - - + + - All trips + - + + + OLS regression: Climate change eects on travelled distance per trip +/- = signicant at .05
  • 12. Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %
  • 13. Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %
  • 14. Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %
  • 15. Results: trip distances Percent changes in trip distance for dierent ac+vity types (2050 compared to present) -40 -20 0 20 40 60 work/study n=11421 social visit n=6530 maintenance n=6989 picking up n=3856 shopping n=6044 touring n=4327 leisure other n=4426 Winter Spring Summer Autumn %
  • 16. Results: ac+vity types Winter Spring Summer Autumn All seasons Work/study + - + + + Maintenance - + - + - Picking up - - - + - Social visit + - - + - Leisure touring - + - - + Leisure shopping - - + + - Leisure other - - - + - All trips - - - + - Nega+ve binomial models: Climate change eects on # trips/person/day +/- = signicant at .05
  • 17. Results: des+na+on address density Climate change eect on the number of trips per person per day towards des+na+ons of dierent address density -25 0 25 50 75 100 >3500 2000-3500 1400-2000 700-1400