24
1 AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    6

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

1

AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

Page 2: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

2

Table of contents

BTC Review .................................................................................................................. 3

Wyckoff analysis invalidated .................................................................................... 3

BTC - Resistance levels .......................................................................................... 4

BTCs next big resistance level ................................................................................ 6

BTC Potential formations ......................................................................................... 7

BTC Indicators ............................................................................................................. 8

Set one - MACD, SAR, Ichimoku cloud ................................................................... 8

Set 2 - Volume, EFI, RSI ......................................................................................... 9

Set 3 - Heikin Ashi, QQE MT4, PnF chart ............................................................... 9

Indicators table conclusion .................................................................................... 11

Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 11

COMPOUND Analysis ............................................................................................... 12

Great start - terrible recent performance ............................................................... 12

Continued losses.................................................................................................... 13

The COMP slowdown - formations ........................................................................ 15

Sideways trading - mixed indicators ...................................................................... 16

QQE MT4, Ichimoku, BBs ...................................................................................... 16

More indicators - RSI, MACD, Gann HL ............................................................... 17

Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 18

AAVE (LEND) .............................................................................................................. 19

AAVEs meteoric rise .............................................................................................. 19

LEND TA ..................................................................................................................... 20

Divergences ........................................................................................................... 22

Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 23

Page 3: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

3

BTC Review

Wyckoff analysis invalidated

In the AAX Intelligence report released on the 20th of July (BTC Wyckoff analysis) it

was suggested that BTC could be in a distribution stage, and that BTC was ready to

potentially see some significant red candles. This chart is shown below.

BTC/USD - Bitcoin decided not to follow the Wyckoff analysis

However, this was definitely not the case. In the last report on the 27th of July it was

stated that if BTC broke $10250 USD that this analysis would become invalid - BTC

is currently at $11250 USD.

Page 4: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

4

BTC/USD - Major growth

So where does this leave us after BTC has gained 17% since the last report? Will

BTC continue to rise, or is this just a pump before a major BTC dump?

BTC - Resistance levels

BTCs huge move above the significant $10500 USD resistance level, has created

some breathing space for BTC. This gap between BTCs current price and the next

resistance level should allow BTC to grow further.

Page 5: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

5

BTC/USD - Fibonacci trend based extension

Another way showing that BTC is free to move higher with little resistance is through

the Gann fan. The Gann fan below originated in June 2019 and has provided support

and resistance numerous times since its creation.

BTC/USD Gann fan

BTC has clearly moved away from the downwards trend from which this fan

originated, however it is still applicable. As shown with BTCs recent sideways trading

Page 6: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

6

period the Gann fan provided resistance in the 2/1 region. The 4/1 level then

provided support for BTCs move up in recent days.

BTCs next big resistance level

The next major resistance level is at $12316 USD. Once BTC reaches around the

$12000 USD level there will be resistance from the Gann fan, R4 pivot point and the

Fibonacci trend based extension.

BTC/USD $12000 USD huge resistance

Once this level is reached BTC could likely see a healthy retracement, probably

towards the central or top line of the KC (Keltner Channels). However before this , a

move towards $12000 USD would represent a substantial 6% increase from our

current prices.

Page 7: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

7

BTC/USD Keltner Channels and $12000 USD resistance level

BTC Potential formations

BTC has formed a potential ascending triangle formation. The formation is bullish as

demonstrated below.

BTC/USD Ascending triangle

Page 8: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

8

Before the formation we see an upwards trend. This alongside the bearish

divergence and the indicators which will be mentioned has created a bullish outlook

for BTC.

BTC Indicators

Set one - MACD, SAR, Ichimoku cloud

Currently as stated earlier many of the indicators used for the reports are bullish. The

Ichimoku cloud is currently bullish, seeing the price well above the cloud - alongside

the cloud turning from red to green. As for the MACD just before BTC broke the

$10500 USD resistance there was a positive crossover with the 12 day EMA

crossing above the 26 day EMA. This created a green histogram with the MACD

currently showing few signs of slowing.

BTC/USD MACD, Ichimoku, SAR

The final indicator in this set is the SAR which is looking incredibly bullish. As the

MACD had its positive crossover the SAR moved from above the BTC candles to

below them. This is an indication of bullish momentum (however at the time this was

debatable due to BTC being in a sideways trading period). The SAR still remains

underneath BTC with a significant gap to the candles - very bullish.

Set 2 - Volume, EFI, RSI

Page 9: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

9

In the second set of indicators we have the Volume, EFI (Elders Force Index) and

the RSI. First let's start with the volume!

As can be seen below there was a huge spike in the BTC volume after a prolonged

downtrend during the sideways trading period. This huge green spike was then

followed by a larger, albeit smaller red volume. The red spike marked a failed

attempt by the bears to push the BTC price back down.

For the moment alongside the other indicators the volume is appearing bullish.

However, the gradual slowdown of the green volumes suggests that a slowdown

could be in play. The EFI also suggests that the bullish momentum will continue,

although that the price gains will soon slow down.

BTC/USD Set two indicators

As for the RSI it shows that there is currently huge interest in BTC - there is huge

demand for the cryptocurrency. The RSI is currently above 80 which makes it very

overbought, although unless the other indicators turn bearish this is a bullish signal.

Set 3 - Heikin Ashi, QQE MT4, PnF chart

The set three indicators are looking very bullish. When looking at the Heikin Ashi

candles on the 4hr chart the green candles are dominating. This is a bullish sign

when seen alongside other bullish indicators. To support these green candles is the

QQE MT4 indicator. The indicator itself is currently bearish, however there has been

a major divergence with the QQE MT4 and the price candles. If a positive crossover

occurs where the yellow line will go above the red line this will be a major bullish

Page 10: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

10

signal.

BTC/USD set three

Unsurprisingly, the PnF - like the other indicators - is currently bullish. Again the

dominance of green alongside a lack of sell signals points towards green for BTC.

BTC/USD PnF

Page 11: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

11

Indicators table conclusion

Indicator Bullish Bearish Neutral Note

MACD X

SAR X

Ichimoku cloud X

Volume X Very close to being neutral - due to the slowdown indication

EFI X

RSI X

Heikin Ashi X

QQE MT4 X Bullish divergence

KC X

PnF X

Indicators bullish or bearish momentum table

Conclusion

As can be seen in the table above, the bullish momentum is currently with Bitcoin.

The break above $10500 USD after such a long rally from $3500 USD is

spectacular, the cryptocurrency space is certainly bullish currently.

Although BTC will begin to face resistance at around $12200 USD and it will be

interesting to see whether BTC can break that barrier at first attempt. If the

unexpected occurs and BTC falls from its current position the first support level

would be at $10700 USD. This is shown below with the R2 pivot point on the 4hr

chart.

Page 12: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

12

BTC/USD pivot points

COMPOUND Analysis

COMPOUND is a decentralized protocol which allows users of COMPOUND to

exchange Ethereum based assets, with users choosing which algorithmically set

interest they want. The user will choose which asset they wish to hold with interest

from COMPOUNDs algorithm dependent on:

- Users personal fundamental thoughts of the cryptocurrency

- Interest offered by the COMPOUND algorithm

- Users personal thoughts of coins future price action

COMPOUND is a decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol with its own native token

COMP. With DeFi coins traded as hot property in the cryptocurrency market right

now let's have a look at the charts for COMP.

Great start – less spectacular recent performance

COMP had a great start finding its all-time low early on at $61 (still a 100% return

from the $30 USD ICO). COMP then began to be listed onto various exchanges and

was subjected to ferocious buying activity seeing COMP soar all the way to $372

USD only 6 days after the token ICO finished. This was a 1100% return from the ICO

price - in less than a week! However, since then, COMP has consistently lost its

value, falling from $372 USD towards $135 USD representing a 63% decrease from

ATHs in June, as shown below.

Page 13: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

13

COMP/USD

However with many DeFi coins performing spectacularly recently (especially the one

later on in the report…), what does the future price action hold for COMP?

Continued losses

*only 1,2,3,4 hourly charts used due to lack of daily chart data

As shown below COMP has continually lost value since its ATH, regularly being

below the central pivot for five sessions in a row.

Page 14: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

14

BTC/USD Pivot Points COMP

This is a bearish signal, however there has been a contraction of the Pivot Points

(PPs). The contraction of PPs can suggest that the current trend could be coming to

an end. However as demonstrated below it appears that there will be a short term

sideways trading period - likely until the end of these PPs.

COMP/USD sideways trading.

Page 15: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

15

The COMP slowdown - formations

Since COMP entered the market it has created numerous formations. The main

formations have typically been parallel channels with the addition of one descending

triangle. However the significance of these previous formations is the ever

decreasing angle of the resistance lines as shown below.

Formation Angle - degrees Decrease from previous angle

Still in play?

Parallel channel 64 N/A NO

Parallel channel 30 34 NO

Descending triangle

12 18 NO

Parallel channel 0 12 YES

COMP/USD angle

As shown by the formation angles and the chart COMP has seen a clear curvature.

This is good news for COMP holders as it may suggest that the sell off is over. If the

sell off is over and the curvature is obeyed, then a period of sideways trading before

a move up appears likely.

Page 16: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

16

Sideways trading - mixed indicators

QQE MT4, Ichimoku, BBs

Starting with the BBs they show that COMP is struggling for direction currently. The

candles are currently moving in and out of the top and bottom bands with a breakout

in either direction not occurring. Moving onto the Ichimoku cloud and it is currently

bearish. The cloud is red while the price continues to remain underneath. In order for

the sentiment to change from bearish to neutral (potentially bullish) COMP would

need to make a break above the cloud.

COMP/USD indicators

As for the QQE MT4 the indicator is currently bullish. However as shown above

COMP has failed to make the progress holders would have hoped for. A possible

divergence has occurred which could lead to a negative breakout of this sideways

movement.

Page 17: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

17

QQE MT4 COMP/USD Divergence

More indicators - RSI, MACD, Gann HL

Currently the MACD is giving bullish indications, with a green histogram and a

positive crossover in the negative area. However the MACD is on the verge of

creating a bearish divergence with the candles. The MACD is one of the indicators

attempting to push COMP above the $140 USD resistance level. Another bullish

indicator is the Gann High Low (HL). The Gann HL has recently turned from red to

blue. If this can be maintained that should be seen as a bullish indication. The final

indicator the RSI shows perfectly the battle between the bulls and the bears with the

indicator sat at 47, very slightly leaning towards increased selling over buying.

Page 18: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

18

COMP/USD RSI, MACD, Gann HL

Conclusion

Indicator Bullish Bearish Neutral Note

RSI X

MACD X

Gann HL X

QQE MT4 X Divergence

BBs X

Ichimoku X

Indicators table

As can be seen with the table above, the indicators are currently very mixed. The

indicators are pointing towards both directions. To take a position now would be

highly risky, waiting for a breakout to occur should decrease the risk. This breakout

will also change the indicators and increase the following towards one particular

direction.

AAVE (LEND)

Page 19: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

19

AAVE like COMP is a part of the DeFi section of cryptocurrencies. AAVE allows

users to earn interest from depositing their coins into AAVE. AAVE also allows for

the borrowing of cryptocurrency assets. AAVE are aiming to create a transparent

infrastructure, that of which is decentralized for worldwide finance.

AAVE Platform

AAVEs meteoric rise

As a cryptocurrency trader seeing this chart and not being a part of AAVEs growth is

frustrating.

Page 20: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

20

LEND/USDT

LEND is currently up 1700% since the start of the year, seeing the cryptocurrency at

similar prices as the 2018 bull run. Although will this huge growth continue? Or is

LEND showing signs of a slowdown?

LEND TA

LEND has recently broken its upwards trend and is in the process of its retracement.

As shown below LEND is attempting to break above the 0.236 level having found

significant support at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.

Page 21: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

21

LEND/USDT Fibonacci

LENDs attempt to break the 0.236 is currently supported by the SAR and BBs. The

SAR has given LEND positive momentum, with the SAR line below the price. It also

has a fair bit of distance between the line and the candlesticks, cementing that

bullish momentum for the time being. Alongside this it appears as though the BBs

centre 20 day MA has provided support for LEND.

LEND/USDT Bollinger Bands

Page 22: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

22

However worryingly LEND has found support with the lower BB and has not made a

significant break above the 20 day MA. If LEND can break further above the 0.236

and use the upper band as resistance - this would be bullish. However currently

LEND is at a crucial stage when concerning the BBs.

Divergences

Currently there are no divergences with LEND. The price is directly following the

RSI, with the RSI at 52 there is no real indication of which way the market bias is at.

As for the MACD the histogram is almost non-existent, with both of the EMAs directly

next to each other.

MACD RSI LEND/USDT

Finally we have some bullish indicators for LEND. The Heikin Ashi has seen a long

term green movement before a small period of red. If the Heikin Ashi can maintain

this green period then there will likely be another wave of positive movement. This

possibility of a new wave is supported by the Ichimoku cloud.

Page 23: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

23

LEND/USDT Ichimoku, Heikin Ashi

The Ichimoku has a green cloud while the price remains above the cloud - bullish.

Conclusion

Indicator Bullish Bearish Neutral Note

Heikin Ashi X

Ichimoku X

RSI X

SAR X

MACD X

BBs X

LEND indicators

In conclusion, LEND is at a crucial point in terms of resistance levels. If LEND can

break the 0.236 then the bullish movement will continue. If this occurred it would also

turn the neutral indicators bullish. However if this cannot be broken, expect a

downtrend to begin for LEND. The first bearish target for LEND is $0.27 USD, a 10%

decrease in price from our current position. The first bullish target is $0.34 USD, a

10% increase from our current position.

Page 24: AAX Intelligence Report - DeFi coins

24

This intelligence report is for marketing and educational purposes only. The views,

analyses and projections are based on the independent research, but cannot be taken

as a form of investment advice. Written by Oliver Page.