ACCESS TO FRESH SURFACE WATER

UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

CASE STUDY: BLACK SEA WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT, BULGARIA

Panka Babukova – master student in Management of the Hydro-climatic Resources

Faculty of Geology and Geography, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”

CLIMATE CHANGE

AFFECTING QUANTITY

OF WATER RESOURCES

ANNUAL PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN EUROPE 1990 - 2000

Source: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-precipitation-changes-in-europe-for-the-period-1900-2000

PROJECTED CHANGE IN SUMMER PRECIPITATION TO 2080

Source: http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/projected-change-in-summer-precipitation-in-europe-up-to-2080

BLACK SEA

WATER MANAGEMENT DISTRICT

IN BULGARIA

Location

Source:

Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

BLACK SEA WMD IN NUMBERS:

• Area: 20 760 km² (18.7% of Bulgarian territory);• Population: 1 339 999 persons /2007/ (17.5% of Bulgarian population);• GDP: 7 816 345 thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GDP);• GVA: 6 389 501 thousand BGN (15.8% of Bulgarian GVA).

Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

ANTHROPOGENIC IMACT

ON QUANTITY

OF WATER RESOURCES

MAIN WATER CONSUMERSTotal used water (without cooling water) 2003 - 2007: 935 345 thousand m³

Sector Total used water 2003 - 2007

(thousand m³)

Average per year

(thousand m³)

Share

Total used water(without cooling water)

935 345 187 069 100 %

Industry (without cooling)

588 790 117 758 62.95 %

Agriculture and forestry (including fishery)

35 485 7096.98 3.79 %

*irrigation: 66.73%

Households 220 440 44 087.9 23.57 %

Service sector 90 631 18 126.2 9.69 %

*tourism: 34.85%

Source: Water Management Plan, Black Sea WMD

QUANTITATIVE STATE OF THE FRESH WATER RESOURCES

Renewable freshwater /1930/31–2002/03/:

• 2412,9 .10^6 m³;

• 12, 5% from national resources;

• 2 477 м³ per capita /2003/ /Lazarov, Ziapkov, 2003/.

CLIMATE CHANGES

IN THE REGION

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: TEMPERATURE

Black sea water managment district y = -0.0002x + 0.0846

R2 = 5E-05

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

T C

Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

Varna y = 0.0082x - 0.1255

R2 = 0.0292

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: PRECIPITATIONBlack sea water management district y = 0.081x + 99.529

R2 = 0.0052

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

1931

1936

1941

1946

1951

1956

1961

1966

1971

1976

1981

1986

1991

1996

2001

P %

of n

orm

als

Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

Black sea water management district

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1931 1937 1943 1949 1955 1961 1967 1973 1979 1985 1991 1997 2003

Black sea - runoff

Varna - precip.

Correlation value: 0, 52

AVAILABLE FRESH WATER RESOURCES

Extreme years with high and low water-level

Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

WMD WET YEARS DRY YEARS

Black sea

1955/56 1954/55 1966/67 1989/90 1948/49 1984/85

R (106 m3) 3660.0 3606.9 3465.6 468.5 522.1 635.1

P % of normal

105 120 115 92 61 78

Bulgaria 1962/63 1954/55 1955/56 1989/90 1993/94 1992/93

R (106 m3) 33590.7 32294.4 31194.2 5996.2 7085.5 7103.9

P % of normal

113 142 106 68 85 90

AVAILABLE FRESH WATER RESOURCES

Water management districts

Years with: Water resources

106 m3

Total Water Abstraction

106 m3

Rates of water

abstraction (%)

Black Sea High water level 3660.0 374.0 10.2

Average water level

2412.8 15.5

Low water level 468.5 79.8

Bulgaria High water level 33590.7 3341.0 9.9

Average water level

19228.6 17.4

Low water level 5996.2 55.7

Source: Zlatunova D. Sustainable Water Use under Climate Change /Case Study in Bulgaria/

WATER LOSSES AND SUPPLY RESTRICTION

WATER LOSS FROM PUBLIC WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM

58

59

60

61

62

63

64

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

%

POPULATION WITH WATER SUPPLY RESTRICTION

19,45

31,7

18,225 15,275

1,60

10

20

30

40

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

%

Source: National Statistical Institute Bulgaria

CONCLUSIONS AND PROGNOSIS

Increase of urban population

Growing life standard

More water supplied population

Increased irrigation water by 10% - 20%

Industry remains in stagnation

INCREASED WATER CONSUMPTION

DECREASE OF THE WATER RESOURCES

Conflict People - Environment Conflict People - People

Positive temperature anomalies

Periods of decreased precipitation

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!