Acrylonitrile & Derivatives China & Others · 2012-03-14 · 9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum 2 9 China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum

Acrylonitrile & Derivatives

China & Others

Simon Garmston

Managing Director

PCI Acrylonitrile Ltd.

9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum

29

China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012 - Shanghai, 8-9 March 2012

Acrylonitrile& Derivatives

China & OthersSimon GarmstonManaging Director

PCI Acrylonitrile Ltd

China International Acrylonitrileand Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012Shanghai, China8-9 March 2012


The PCI Consulting Group

PCI NylonNylon, 6 & 66 Raw Materials,

Nylon Polymer, Nylon Plastics

PCI Film ConsultingPlastic Films, Flexible

Packaging

PCI PETPET Resin for bottles

PCI FibresNylon Fibre,

Polyester Fibre,Natural Fibres, Textiles

PCI Xylenes & Polyesters

Xylenes, Paraxylene,PTA, DMT, EOMEG, EOD’s

Polyester Polymer

PCI AcrylonitrileAcrylonitrile, Acrylic Fibre, ABS/SAN,

Adiponitrile, NB Copolymers, Acrylamide, Hydrogen Cyanide, MMA

PCI Consulting Group


30


� China…

� Derivative Forecast…

� World Supply/Demand Balance…

Agenda

Agenda

� Conclusions…

� World Supply/Demand 2011…


ChinaAcrylonitrile Supply/Demand

China


31


Chart 1

thousand tons

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Production Imports

China: Acrylic Fibre Demand


Chart 2

thousand tons

0500

10001500200025003000350040004500

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Production Imports

China: ABS/SAN Demand


32


China: Acrylonitrile Demand for Acrylic Fibre

Chart 3

thousand tons

0

200

400

600

800

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


China: Acrylonitrile Demand for ABS

Chart 4

thousand tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


33


China: Acrylonitrile Demand for Acrylamide

Chart 5

thousand tons

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


China: Acrylonitrile Demand for NBR

Chart 6

thousand tons

0

25

50

75

100

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


34


China: Acrylonitrile Demand for Others

Chart 7

thousand tons

0

20

40

60

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


China: Acrylonitrile Demand Total

Chart 8

thousand tons

0250500750

1000125015001750

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


35


China Acrylonitrile Demand

Chart 9

Acrylic FibreABS/SANAdiponitrileAcrylamideNB CopolymersCarbon PrecursorMiscellaneous

Total

2008

566337

0135

280

39

1105

2009

650413

0229

421

44

1379

change2011/2010

+ 23- 35

0+ 40+ 18+ 1+ 3

+ 50

2010

616498

025063

248

1477

-14.3%

2011

639463

0290813

51

1527

+24.7% +7.1% +3.4%

Thousand Tons


China: Acrylonitrile Production

Chart 10

thousand tons

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


36


China: Acrylonitrile Net Imports

Chart 11

thousand tons

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


China Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile

Chart 12

thousand tons

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Installed Capacity Demand


37


China Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile

Chart 13

thousand tons

0250500750

10001250150017502000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Installed Capacity Speculative Capacity Demand


China Conclusions

Chart 14

� Chinese growth in this industry has been amazing.

� 55% of all ABS/SAN is processed in China.

� China now accounts for 30% of world acrylonitrile d emand.

� 45% of all acrylic fibre is processed in China.

� China is evolving towards being a much bigger final consumer of acrylonitrile derivatives, especially i n ABS.

� We are confident of continued strong growth of acrylonitrile derivatives in China.

� New acrylonitrile capacity is needed in China - soon ..!


38


World Acrylonitrile

Supply/Demand

2011

Acrylonitrile 2011


World Acrylonitrile Demand

Chart 15

Acrylic FibreABS/SANAdiponitrileAcrylamideNB CopolymersCarbon PrecursorMiscellaneous

Total

2008

17401579308408260

98166

4559

2009

18431686336507260

67165

4864

change2011/2010

- 12- 111+ 35+ 59+ 34+ 17+ 4

+ 26

2010

1821191435555331397

183

5236

-13.4%

2011

18091803

390612347114187

5262

+6.7% +7.6% +0.5%

Thousand Tons


39


Acrylonitrile Demand 2011

Chart 16

� Growth was very strong in H1. Big destocking in H2 .

� Adiponitrile and acrylamide held up well.

� Acrylic Fibre expensive vs Polyester in H1. Less so H2.

� ABS overheated. High stocks of finished goods in China etc.. Huge economic uncertainty in H2.

� NB and Other Uses reasonable growth.

� Carbon Fibre strong despite economic issues.

� Total market up slightly on 2010. Very modest thou gh.


Acrylonitrile Capacity Changes 2011

Chart 17

USAWest EuropeChinaTaiwanThailand

TOTAL

+ 15,000 tons+ 25,000 tons+ 77,000 tons+ 25,000 tons+ 15,000 tons

+ 157,000 tons


40


Chart 18

Percent

World Acrylonitrile Capacity Utilisation

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%20

07

2008

2009

2010

2011


Acrylic Fibre

Acrylic Fibre


41


Acrylic Fibre - Competitive Fibres

Chart 19

� Polyester / acrylic price gap has been an issue for acrylic demand - substitution. Increased first half - hurt v olume. Decreased second half. Now back to $1.

� Wool prices are very high. Small but positive infl uence on acrylic fibre. Could acrylic fibre substitute?

� PTA will be tight and expensive - supply/demand and paraxylene driven. MEG tightening and more expensi ve. High polyester fibre prices good for acrylic.

� Significant cotton price volatility last 2 years. Direction difficult to understand but likely to stay strong. Good for acrylic. Clearly has helped polyester demand. Acr ylic?


Chart 20

US$ per kg

0.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.50

2002

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2003

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2004

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2005

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2006

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2007

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2008

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2009

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2010

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2011

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2012

~ J

an

Polyester Staple Acrylic Staple

Acrylic Fibre vs Polyester


42


0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160

2002

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2003

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2004

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2005

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2006

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2007

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2008

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2009

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2010

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2011

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2012

~ J

an

Acrylic/Polyester Differential

Chart 21

Cents per kg


Acrylic More Expensive!


0

25

50

75

100

125

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Acrylic/Polyester Differential

Chart 22

Cents per kg




43


Chart 23

US$ per kg

0.500.751.001.251.501.752.002.252.502.753.003.253.503.754.004.254.504.755.00

2002

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2003

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2004

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2005

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2006

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2007

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2008

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2009

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2010

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2011

~ J

an Ap

r

July

Oct

2012

~ J

an

Polyester Staple Acrylic Staple Cotton

Acrylic vs Polyester vs Cotton


Chart 24

US$ per kg

-2.00-1.75-1.50-1.25-1.00-0.75-0.50-0.250.000.250.500.751.00

2002

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2003

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2004

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2005

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2006

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2007

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2008

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2009

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2010

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2011

~ J

an Apr

July

Oct

2012

~ J

an

Acrylic/Cotton Differential

Acrylic Fibre vs Cotton


Acrylic Less Expensive


44


-50-40-30-20-10

01020304050607080

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Acrylic/Cotton Differential

Chart 25

Cents per kg

Acrylic Fibre vs Cotton


Chart 26

US$ per kg

0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00

10.0011.0012.0013.0014.0015.0016.00

2002

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2003

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2004

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2005

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2006

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2007

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2008

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2009

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2010

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2011

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2012

~ J

an

Wool Acrylic

Acrylic Fibre vs Wool


45


Chart 27

US$ per kg

0123456789

101112

2002

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2003

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2004

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2005

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2006

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2007

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2008

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2009

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2010

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2011

~ J

an

Apr

July

Oct

2012

~ J

an

Wool/Acrylic Differential

Acrylic Fibre vs Wool

Wool More Expensive


Chart 28

thousand tons

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


World Acrylic Fibre Demand


46


Chart 29

Percent

World Acrylic Fibre Utilisation

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%20

02

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


ABS/SAN

ABS/SAN


47


World ABS/SAN Demand

Chart 30

20003000400050006000700080009000

100001100012000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


thousand tons


Chart 31

Percent

World ABS/SAN Utilisation

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


48


ABS Capacity Additions 2011-2015

Chart 32

BrazilRussiaSaudi ArabiaChinaIndiaKoreaTaiwanThailand

TOTAL

50,000 tons55,000 tons

140,000 tons1,628,000 tons

98,000 tons70,000 tons

350,000 tons60,000 tons

2,451,000 tons


Acrylamide

Acrylamide


49


Chart 33

thousand tons

0100200300400500600700800900

1000110012001300

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


World Acrylamide Demand


Chart 34

Percent

World Acrylamide Utilisation

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


50


AAM Capacity Additions 2011-2015

Chart 35

USAEuropeChinaIndia

TOTAL

118,000 tons20,000 tons

170,000 tons38,000 tons

346,000 tons


AdiponitrileNB & Others

Adiponitrile & Others


51


Chart 36

thousand tons

0

100

200

300

400

50020

02

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Acrylonitrile Demand for Adiponitrile


Chart 37

thousand tons

050

100150200250300350400450

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Acrylonitrile Demand - NB Copolymers


52


Chart 38

thousand tons

050

100150200250300350400

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Miscellaneous Carbon Precursor

Acrylonitrile Demand for Others


AcrylonitrileSupply/Demand

Acrylonitrile Supply/Demand


53


World Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile

Chart 39

thousand tons

350040004500500055006000650070007500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Installed Capacity Speculative Capacity Demand


Chart 40

Percent

World Acrylonitrile Capacity Utilisation

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


54


World Supply/Demand Acrylonitrile

Chart 41

thousand tons

350040004500500055006000650070007500

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Installed Capacity Speculative CapacityOld Demand New Demand


Acrylonitrile Capacity 2011 to 2015

Chart 42

� World - Confirmed = 763kt. Speculative = 360kt.

� China - Confirmed = Anqing 130kt, Qilu 23kt, Jilin 6 5kt.

� West Europe - 40kt capacity creep.

� Middle East - 200kt Saudi plant mid-2015 - Speculativ e!

� Thailand - PTT Asahi 185kt. Taiwan - CPDC - 25kt.

� USA - Ascend = 45kt increase.

� China - Speculative = 260kt. Secco/CNOOC/INEOS/Wand a?

� Korea - Tong Suh 245kt new 2013. 15kt expansion.


55


Conclusions

Conclusions


Conclusions

Chart 43

� China has become and will continue to be a massive player in the acrylonitrile and derivatives market.

� Acrylic Fibre - 2010/2011 demand stable. Our foreca st remains at 2 million tons.

� World acrylonitrile demand in 2011 was flat. 2012 is expected to see recovery and future growth looks st rong.

� ABS/SAN - 2010 growth was three times GDP. Stock bu ild downstream. 2011 correction. 2012 recovery starts .

� Acrylonitrile Capacity - Broadly balanced market sho rt term. New capacity is needed. China must build.

� Other Derivatives - Good prospects. Acrylamide stro ng. NB positive. Carbon will be big. New capacity comi ng.


56


Simon GarmstonManaging Director

PCI Acrylonitrile Ltd

was presented by

Acrylonitrile& Derivatives

China & Others

China International Acrylonitrileand Acrylic Fibre Forum 2012Shanghai, China8-9 March 2012

Documents

Acrylonitrile & Derivatives China & Others · 2012-03-14 · 9th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum 2 9 China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fibre Forum